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The Joe Biden Presidency Thread


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Seems like rescuing dogs during lockdown is a thing around here. It happened to us this past week. This guy wandered up dirty and skinny, playing with my daughter in the front yard. After a few days o

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1 hour ago, bdog 29 said:

Obama's paternalism with the black community pisses me off as much as the next guy but I'm inclined to believe that a lot of the black male support for Trump really was that simple.

I hate to sound like mid-2000s Fox News but unfortunately a lot of young black dudes are legitimately influenced by these rappers. Getting some of them to endorse Trump would actually move some black men to vote for him too. Even when Kanye announced his joke candidacy, you had idiots like Chance the Rapper and Nick Cannon saying they'd vote for him. Black people have just as many misguided and easily influenced people as any other race. Obama's finger wagging is annoying but I don't think he's completely offbase here.

It's not young black guys.  America equates thought leadership with fame and money, it's the American way.  Our society considers the wealthiest as our most successful, to insuinate that blacks are different he was doing nothing more than tap dancing.  BO would have gotten thrown off the bus.

 

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2 minutes ago, Andrews_31 said:

How are you going to ask me where, and end it with your last sentence.  YOU don't want to believe.  Everybody is wrong, I'm (YOU) right, blah, blah, ******* blah!  Trump picked up 8 million more votes than he did in 2016! ****, 55% of white women voted for him in 2020, it was 52% in 2016.  Stand two white women together, one of them voted for Trump! Believe the data is wrong at your own peril, the dems clearly have a problem across all demographics, people like you are what is wrong with the democratic party!  Again, miss me with that horse****, I've never voted for Trump or the GOP, but that can always change!  Get it together dems!

@Leon Troutsky A little help?

OK . . . You understand how they do polling, right?  You get a nice big sample, but you make sure that sample is a valid cross section of America.  You need a certain percentage of women, Blacks, Latino's College Grads, Non college grads etc . . . 

This year, Edison Research did exit polling at the polls on election day, plus they made calls to catch folks who voted early.  

So lets take a 1000 person survey

And lets ONLY talk about Black Males.

Lets say you need 100 Black males for a valid survey.

Historically Republicans did more mail in ballots than Democrats.  But lets say Edison knew that this year would be different so they figured Republcans and Dems would vote differently this time.  Lets say it would be historically different:  60% of dems voted early and only 40% voted on election day.

So lets assume that 90 of our Black males voted for Biden and 10 voted for Trump.

If Edison got it right:  36 voted for Biden on Election Day and 54 voted early.  And 6 voted for Trump on election Day and 4 voted Early.

BUT what if they got it wrong.  What if it 80% of Democrats voted early and 20% percent voted on election day.  And the opposite for Republcans.

You still have a total of 42 Black men voting on election day.  But instead of those 42 being 60/40 R/D.  They are 80/20 R/D

Of the total of 10 Black man in the 100 person sample, 8 voted on election day.  And of the 90 Black men who voted Biden, 18 voted on election day.

Suddenly, it looks like 331/3 Black men voted for Trump.  

But not really, because they weighted it 60-40.  

OK . .  I had to take a call and now I've confused myself.

The point is, there is no evidence Edison factored in that 1) Trump wanted Republicans to vote on election day and 2) Republicans were less concerned about Covid such that the number of Republicans voting on election was way beyond anything they considered.

Therefore, the polling was skewed such that minorities APPEARED to vote for Trump in larger numbers.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

@Leon Troutsky A little help?

OK . . . You understand how they do polling, right?  You get a nice big sample, but you make sure that sample is a valid cross section of America.  You need a certain percentage of women, Blacks, Latino's College Grads, Non college grads etc . . . 

This year, Edison Research did exit polling at the polls on election day, plus they made calls to catch folks who voted early.  

So lets take a 1000 person survey

And lets ONLY talk about Black Males.

Lets say you need 100 Black males for a valid survey.

Historically Republicans did more mail in ballots than Democrats.  But lets say Edison knew that this year would be different so they figured Republcans and Dems would vote differently this time.  Lets say it would be historically different:  60% of dems voted early and only 40% voted on election day.

So lets assume that 90 of our Black males voted for Biden and 10 voted for Trump.

If Edison got it right:  36 voted for Biden on Election Day and 54 voted early.  And 6 voted for Trump on election Day and 4 voted Early.

BUT what if they got it wrong.  What if it 80% of Democrats voted early and 20% percent voted on election day.  And the opposite for Republcans.

You still have a total of 42 Black men voting on election day.  But instead of those 42 being 60/40 R/D.  They are 80/20 R/D

Of the total of 10 Black man in the 100 person sample, 8 voted on election day.  And of the 90 Black men who voted Biden, 18 voted on election day.

Suddenly, it looks like 331/3 Black men voted for Trump.  

But not really, because they weighted it 60-40.  

OK . .  I had to take a call and now I've confused myself.

The point is, there is no evidence Edison factored in that 1) Trump wanted Republicans to vote on election day and 2) Republicans were less concerned about Covid such that the number of Republicans voting on election was way beyond anything they considered.

Therefore, the polling was skewed such that minorities APPEARED to vote for Trump in larger numbers.

 

 

I agree with Andrews.

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5 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

@Leon Troutsky A little help?

OK . . . You understand how they do polling, right?  You get a nice big sample, but you make sure that sample is a valid cross section of America.  You need a certain percentage of women, Blacks, Latino's College Grads, Non college grads etc . . . 

This year, Edison Research did exit polling at the polls on election day, plus they made calls to catch folks who voted early.  

So lets take a 1000 person survey

And lets ONLY talk about Black Males.

Lets say you need 100 Black males for a valid survey.

Historically Republicans did more mail in ballots than Democrats.  But lets say Edison knew that this year would be different so they figured Republcans and Dems would vote differently this time.  Lets say it would be historically different:  60% of dems voted early and only 40% voted on election day.

So lets assume that 90 of our Black males voted for Biden and 10 voted for Trump.

If Edison got it right:  36 voted for Biden on Election Day and 54 voted early.  And 6 voted for Trump on election Day and 4 voted Early.

BUT what if they got it wrong.  What if it 80% of Democrats voted early and 20% percent voted on election day.  And the opposite for Republcans.

You still have a total of 42 Black men voting on election day.  But instead of those 42 being 60/40 R/D.  They are 80/20 R/D

Of the total of 10 Black man in the 100 person sample, 8 voted on election day.  And of the 90 Black men who voted Biden, 18 voted on election day.

Suddenly, it looks like 331/3 Black men voted for Trump.  

But not really, because they weighted it 60-40.  

OK . .  I had to take a call and now I've confused myself.

The point is, there is no evidence Edison factored in that 1) Trump wanted Republicans to vote on election day and 2) Republicans were less concerned about Covid such that the number of Republicans voting on election was way beyond anything they considered.

Therefore, the polling was skewed such that minorities APPEARED to vote for Trump in larger numbers.

 

 

I'm just glad the Democrats aren't going to have to think this hard about how they did with minorities against Trump going forward. It's not like they're ever going to need to worry about a Republican presidential candidate that can court minority votes more credibly than Donald Trump.

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8 minutes ago, Baby Dik Dik said:

I agree with Andrews.

That's fine.  You are in good company.  Freakin' David Brooks was citing the Edison Research numbers like they were Gospel.  

But I hope you can at least appreciate that the nature of voting dynamics made it very challenging to properly weight various groups for reliable polling.

I may be wrong.  

I asked a very well respected political scientist ( @Leon Troutsky is a total fanboy of him) who studies and relies on polls about this and all he said was "I agree."

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2 minutes ago, Serge said:

I'm just glad the Democrats aren't going to have to think this hard about how they did with minorities against Trump going forward. It's not like they're ever going to need to worry about a Republican presidential candidate that can court minority votes more credibly than Donald Trump.

They might . . . that's not my point.  

My point is that this stuff about "Trump did better with minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016 is ********.

Of course, If that is true, you could go to DeKalb county Georgia, compare data from 2016 and 2020 and find out that, as a percentage, Trump did better this time, right?

Go ahead and check.  I'll wait right here.

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Yall... I'm just shaking my head again. I'm on another VA teleconference for veterans in the DFW area and this stuff is so infuriating. There are so many veterans who have been up **** creek without a paddle for years and this pandemic has only made it so much worse. The mental health statistics and suicide rates are unbelievable. I know what some of my friends and family have been through but I've been on a few of these this year and it's always so depressing. Our representatives should be working day and night to get relief to people during this pandemic. **** is absurd.

I will say tho that the VA doctor running this teleconference is a total professional. He has redirected multiple people's emotions in a "we're not here to fight with you, we are here to help you, we are on the same team here" type of way. And the thought just lingers with me.... Trump got on that level with people.

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35 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

@Leon Troutsky A little help?

OK . . . You understand how they do polling, right?  You get a nice big sample, but you make sure that sample is a valid cross section of America.  You need a certain percentage of women, Blacks, Latino's College Grads, Non college grads etc . . . 

This year, Edison Research did exit polling at the polls on election day, plus they made calls to catch folks who voted early.  

So lets take a 1000 person survey

And lets ONLY talk about Black Males.

Lets say you need 100 Black males for a valid survey.

Historically Republicans did more mail in ballots than Democrats.  But lets say Edison knew that this year would be different so they figured Republcans and Dems would vote differently this time.  Lets say it would be historically different:  60% of dems voted early and only 40% voted on election day.

So lets assume that 90 of our Black males voted for Biden and 10 voted for Trump.

If Edison got it right:  36 voted for Biden on Election Day and 54 voted early.  And 6 voted for Trump on election Day and 4 voted Early.

BUT what if they got it wrong.  What if it 80% of Democrats voted early and 20% percent voted on election day.  And the opposite for Republcans.

You still have a total of 42 Black men voting on election day.  But instead of those 42 being 60/40 R/D.  They are 80/20 R/D

Of the total of 10 Black man in the 100 person sample, 8 voted on election day.  And of the 90 Black men who voted Biden, 18 voted on election day.

Suddenly, it looks like 331/3 Black men voted for Trump.  

But not really, because they weighted it 60-40.  

OK . .  I had to take a call and now I've confused myself.

The point is, there is no evidence Edison factored in that 1) Trump wanted Republicans to vote on election day and 2) Republicans were less concerned about Covid such that the number of Republicans voting on election was way beyond anything they considered.

Therefore, the polling was skewed such that minorities APPEARED to vote for Trump in larger numbers.

 

 

And you wrote all of that to say nothing, and to call ALL of the data that is out there (mind you, they've repeatedly covered it on MSNBC, CNN, ****, I don't watch OAN or FOX, so I can't say what they are reporting.  Furthermore, you're talking to a guy with  a degree in Mechanical Engineering, an MBA from Emory, a business owner, and I run another person's multi-MILLION dollar company for them in D.C., so cut the condescension  and patronization crap, I clearly understand the what is being reported, and it's true!

 

Also, riddle me this batman, why the **** does the Democratic party (and the GOP) care more about AIPAC and what the **** they think than every black person in the USA that votes?  Billions of dollars a year sent to prop up Israel, but when it comes to black people in the USA, we get nothing but empty promises!  Black people are TIRED of their votes being used to benefit everyone but them.  There is nothing to decipher, Trump getting a larger share of black men and women votes is that 18 and 9 percent telling you pinheads there is a problem!

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6 minutes ago, Big_Dog said:

During his sack the lineman landed on him pretty hard but he stood on the sidelines ready to go back in. Maybe he'll think it over and finally retire. 

I saw a replay and did not see a flag.  Did I miss something?  I thought slamming a QB with your weight on him was roughing now.  

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2 minutes ago, Andrews_31 said:

And you wrote all of that to say nothing, and to call ALL of the data that is out there (mind you, they've repeatedly covered on MSNBC, CNN, ****, I don't watch OAN or FOX, so I can't say what they are reporting.  Furthermore, you're talking to a guy with  a degree in Mechanical Engineering, an MBA from Emory, a business owner, and I run another person's multi-MILLION dollar company for them in D.C., so cut the condescension  and patronization crap, I clearly understand the what is being reported, and it's true!

 

Also, riddle me this batman, why the **** does the Democratic party (and the GOP) care more about AIPAC and what the **** they think than every black person in the USA that votes?  Billions of dollars a year sent to prop up Israel, but when it comes to black people in the USA, we get nothing but empty promises!  Black people are TIRED of their votes being used to benefit everyone but them.  There is nothing to decipher, Trump getting a larger share of black men and women votes is that 18 and 9 percent telling you pinheads there is a problem!

Dude, do your research. Give me some credit. I don’t post pull **** out of my ***. All of those networks rely on the same polling data. All of that data comes from Edison research. Look it up. If they got it wrong, it’s all wrong.

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11 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

Tf course, If that is true, you could go to DeKalb county Georgia, compare data from 2016 and 2020 and find out that, as a percentage, Trump did better this time, right?

Go ahead and check.  I'll wait right here.

Y'all see this dumb **** right here?  We're talking nationally, he's talking about Dekalb County, Georgia!  Also, be forewarned, if Ossoff and Warnock both lose, they've already got their scapegoat ready!

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3 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

They might . . . that's not my point.  

My point is that this stuff about "Trump did better with minorities in 2020 than he did in 2016 is ********.

Of course, If that is true, you could go to DeKalb county Georgia, compare data from 2016 and 2020 and find out that, as a percentage, Trump did better this time, right?

Go ahead and check.  I'll wait right here.

Yeah they really might, that's why I was being sarcastic in suggesting it as if it weren't self-evident. Practically any Republican presidential candidate in 2024 other than Trump is going to court minority votes more sincerely than Trump ever did, which means if the Democrats have a messaging problem with minorities right now, they're more likely to pay for it in 2024 than they were this year with Trump on the ballot

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1 minute ago, duckettpleaze said:

Dude, do your research. Give me some credit. I don’t post pull **** out of my ***. All of those networks rely on the same polling data. All of that data comes from Edison research. Look it up. If they got it wrong, it’s all wrong.

You and your other clown personna do yours first, you're clueless!  Everybody else is wrong but you!

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23 minutes ago, Serge said:

I'm just glad the Democrats aren't going to have to think this hard about how they did with minorities against Trump going forward. It's not like they're ever going to need to worry about a Republican presidential candidate that can court minority votes more credibly than Donald Trump.

Quote me on this Serge, Larry Hogan will turn Maryland, DC, and Virginia RED if he runs in 2024.

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40 minutes ago, Andrews_31 said:

Y'all see this dumb **** right here?  We're talking nationally, he's talking about Dekalb County, Georgia!  Also, be forewarned, if Ossoff and Warnock both lose, they've already got their scapegoat ready!

I know you’re a smart guy. David Brooks is a smart guy too. Lots of really smart people are getting this completely wrong. And it’s certainly possible that I’m the one getting completely wrong.
In fact, considering I’m a ******* moron, the smart money would probably be on you and the other smart people out there.

butbI sure as **** know difference between national and regional. My point is that DeKalb is a predominantly black county.  If there was a nationwide trend of Black people turning to Trump, there’s no reason why DeKalb county would not reflect that trend.
Come on. Am I really so stupid when I post around here that you think I would be missing something like that?

 

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