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The Joe Biden Presidency Thread


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31 minutes ago, bdog 29 said:

This hits at what I've been thinking of in relation to the runoff. @JDaveG mentioned the 08 runoff after Obama's election and how Dems don't typically show up like that for runoffs and while that's true, I don't think it can be overstated how much the Trump effect led to the turnout we saw on Tuesday for the GOP.

Right now the GOP is in a hard position. Trump looks like he's going to lose by a wide enough margin that the SCOTUS won't be able to intervene. But his supporters think Biden is only winning through rampant voter fraud. The GOP leadership knows this is BS and are probably ready to let Trump go because they got their judges and kept the Senate but if they don't put up a fight a lot of their supporters will abandon them.

Unfortunately absent of straight up invalidating the election and making Trump God-Emperor for life, Trump supporters won't find anything they do good enough. I expect there to be strong blowback against them if Trump loses. Enough to lead to a Dem Senate? Idk, but there is a lot of rage fermenting across a large portion of the base that an election is being plainly stolen and the powers-that-be are doing nothing about it. They're not going to come out to give those powers-that-be more power.

Well... it's not 2008 anymore. Georgia is becoming a bluer state and 2008 was the definition of a landslide election, where the Dems didn't even need a seat in GA to gain majority control. 

I don't have any clue what will happen but I'm hoping that the importance of these two elections is conveyed to Dem voters, and that this election depresses Trump voters. McCain never had that cult of personality around him the way Trump does so I could see this having an effect. My dad said in 2016 that he would quit politics if Trump lost to Clinton. I never believed for a second that he would quit politics for good, but for a couple months? Maybe. And I think a lot of Trump voters could be that way.

Meanwhile, Biden voters who thought this was going to be a landslide election could have a bit more hope after such disastrous results outside of GA. The Dem candidates are both popular and energetic. I'm not expecting much but I'm crossing my fingers.

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18 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

Ga down to 9K votes.

My back of envelope math looks good but super tight.  If the outstanding vote is basically the same make up as what has been counted since Wednesday morning, Biden wins.

The gap this morning was 18,586 and it is now 9,525.  There were about 60,000 unreported ballots this morning and they have counted about 23,000.  If things keep up at the current rate, Biden wins Georgia by about . . . 5,000 freakin votes.

Of course, I'm sure someone will whif on a block, or get a holding call or engage in some miserable clock management and we end up with Trump for four more years.

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3 minutes ago, lostone said:

@achilles return

in my late stage capitalism gamble, I put some money into the volatility index fund and have lost money because I bet on the markets taking a ****.  I welcome my place on the gallows.

If it makes you feel better, I was up $6K on options this year. I lost it all and them and some in the past two months because I was dead certain the market would tank. 

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5 minutes ago, lostone said:

@achilles return

in my late stage capitalism gamble, I put some money into the volatility index fund and have lost money because I bet on the markets taking a ****.  I welcome my place on the gallows.

don't worry, the petty bourgeoisie and middle managers will share spots in the re-education camps, so you'll be given a second chance. also, i will volunteer myself as a character witness in your class crimes trial.

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7 minutes ago, bdog 29 said:

If it makes you feel better, I was up $6K on options this year. I lost it all and them and some in the past two months because I was dead certain the market would tank. 

follow the trend my friend.  @lostone you should be swimming in money right now.  The entire world had to depend on IT the last 6 months.  There's still time my guy.  COUP, MongoDB, Elastic, twilio, and more.

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@bdog 29 and @lostoneI know the talk about unemployment and how awful the economy is doing has been ongoing here, consider the enormous amount of minimum wage employees that suddenly began making 50K a year with pandemic assistance.  We've likely been as close to a universal income as we will ever be for the last 6 months.  The amount of money running through our ecomony at this time has never been seen before.

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1 minute ago, MoeBiden said:

follow the trend my friend.  @lostone you should be swimming in money right now.  The entire world had to depend on IT the last 6 months.  There's still time my guy.  COUP, MongoDB, Elastic, twilio, and more.

That's a lesson I should have learned a few times already but hubris makes me want to be *that guy that was right when everybody else was wrong. 

My brother on the other hand has made insane returns this year ($50K+) by basically following the trend and picking up the pennies behind the bigger guys.

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11 minutes ago, achilles return said:

don't worry, the petty bourgeoisie and middle managers will share spots in the re-education camps, so you'll be given a second chance. also, i will volunteer myself as a character witness in your class crimes trial.

Thank you sir.  I await my time to be added to the soros payroll end take the FEV super soldier serum 

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Just now, bdog 29 said:

That's a lesson I should have learned a few times already but hubris makes me want to be *that guy that was right when everybody else was wrong. 

My brother on the other hand has made insane returns this year ($50K+) by basically following the trend and picking up the pennies behind the bigger guys.

Sell premium, instead of giving it away.  In a high IV environment you want to be the casino.  You could have been making the money you gave away betting on price action.  To successfully place an options bet you have to guess the direction and timing.  I think I read somewhere that 90% of option bets end up being worthless.

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5 minutes ago, MoeBiden said:

follow the trend my friend.  @lostone you should be swimming in money right now.  The entire world had to depend on IT the last 6 months.  There's still time my guy.  COUP, MongoDB, Elastic, twilio, and more.

Not quite how it works.  Finance took a beating earlier this year and had to take cutbacks.  We were fortunate where I work

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16 minutes ago, AF89 said:

One would expect Republicans to win a runoff but don't underestimate the ability of Trump to really show his *** in a lameduck period and if he doesn't pass covid relief things might shake up a little

Trump has built a cult following that broke turnout records all over the country.

He is also likely to lose this election because he spent four years verbally eviscerating Arizona's favorite son, even after death, and called the district of a now deceased Civil Rights legend a **** hole or cesspool or some such nonsense.

His political instincts could perhaps, be described as "ambivalent."

We have NO IDEA how completely normal or utterly insane the next two months could be.  The dynamics of the race, two runoffs.  Lame duck Party leader of dubious stability.  Charismatic leftist Preacher running without the opportunity to hold rallies, with a Jewish political neophyte who lost his only previous race.  They are up against an extreme right wing wacko and Kelly Loefler, who has contorted herself into such bizarre positions to express fealty to Donald Trump that her husband now has a certain glean in his eye.

Yep . . . It COULD be rather interesting.

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19 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

My back of envelope math looks good but super tight.  If the outstanding vote is basically the same make up as what has been counted since Wednesday morning, Biden wins.

The gap this morning was 18,586 and it is now 9,525.  There were about 60,000 unreported ballots this morning and they have counted about 23,000.  If things keep up at the current rate, Biden wins Georgia by about . . . 5,000 freakin votes.

Of course, I'm sure someone will whif on a block, or get a holding call or engage in some miserable clock management and we end up with Trump for four more years.

I think someone won’t audible out of the pass and then swallow the ball under pressure. You know real field general type ****. 

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13 minutes ago, AF89 said:

One would expect Republicans to win a runoff but don't underestimate the ability of Trump to really show his *** in a lameduck period and if he doesn't pass covid relief things might shake up a little

This is honestly the best bet they have. If I'm a Democrat, I'm airing ads constantly about how Trump/the GOP/Mitch are insisting on not passing another stimulus paired with how winning the runoff election means Dems can pass one, along with constant messaging about how the first focus when Biden takes office is passing a stimulus. That won't just get voter turnout, it can get (at least moreso) bipartisan support for the Dem candidates in question. 

But they probably won't do that because Dems are stupid cowards.

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2 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

This is honestly the best bet they have. If I'm a Democrat, I'm airing ads constantly about how Trump/the GOP/Mitch are insisting on not passing another stimulus paired with how winning the runoff election means Dems can pass one, along with constant messaging about how the first focus when Biden takes office is passing a stimulus. That won't just get voter turnout, it can get (at least moreso) bipartisan support for the Dem candidates in question. 

But they probably won't do that because Dems are stupid cowards.

Honestly if Mitch is forced to pass a relief package before Biden takes office, the country can probably thank Georgia

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