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The Joe Biden Presidency Thread


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1 minute ago, Leon Troutsky said:

This isn’t playing well...

Most Americans continue to be deeply worried about the virus, and the poll found that 65%, including 9 in 10 registered Democrats and 5 in 10 registered Republicans, agreed that “if President Trump had taken coronavirus more seriously, he probably would not have been infected.”

Only 34% said they thought that Trump has been telling them the truth about the coronavirus, while 55% said that he was not and 11% were unsure.

Of those polled, 57% of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic overall, up about 3 points from a poll that ran late last week.

The dude SAID IT HIMSELF that he was/is lying about how bad it is! 
 

What da &uck is wrong with the 34 and 11 percent people!!?

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3 minutes ago, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

The dude SAID IT HIMSELF that he was/is lying about how bad it is! 
 

What da &uck is wrong with the 34 and 11 percent people!!?

It’s partisanship.  I know it’s hard to believe, but there’s 35% of the public who will literally believe anything that Trump tells them.  There’s also about the same percentage that believes literally anything the Dems tell them.  Party identification is the strongest identity most people have, second only to religion.  

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Just now, Leon Troutsky said:

It’s partisanship.  I know it’s hard to believe, but there’s 35% of the public who will literally believe anything that Trump tells them.  There’s also about the same percentage that believes literally anything the Dems tell them.  Party identification is the strongest identity most people have, second only to religion.  

And this is why we are not going to make it.

I am almost excited to watch the Falcons get blown out tonight so I have something else to focus my ire on for a few hours.

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So a few things about 538’s model...

First, it’s showing Trump’s chances dropping about 1% each day, so it’s now down to 18% chance of winning.  

The state to watch is PA, where Trump also has about an 18% chance of winning.

HOWEVER, I think they are overestimating Trump’s chances, especially regarding the popular vote.  Hear me out...

In PA, they estimate that Biden will win 52-47%.  That’s not simply a poll aggregation, though.  They start with polling average (50-44% Biden).  Then they allocate undecided voters equally — 2.5% each for Biden and Trump.

I seriously doubt that undecided voters will split evenly.  This year, they lean pretty heavily towards Biden.  So that could push Biden’s margin of victory up 1-2%, meaning he could be sitting somewhere around 54-45% lead (at the higher end).  That alone would drive Trump’s chances of winning down farther.

But if that holds across all of the swing states — and most elections undecided voters swing the same way across all the states — then nationally Trump’s chances of winning drop quite a bit.  So it could be that 538’s model is too optimistic for Trump this year.  We obviously won’t know until the election, but the point is that I think there’s just as much reason to believe that their model is underestimating Biden’s lead as there is to think they are overestimating it.

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One other thing — the state to watch in the polls is PA.  But the state to watch on Election Night is Florida.  The reason is that it’s likely that Florida won’t have a delay in reporting its final votes on election night.  And there is no path for Trump winning that doesn’t include Florida.  There might be delays in PA and other swing states, but if Biden wins Florida then it’s game over.

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40 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

JFC, he’s like the insane guy on the street corner yelling at people...

 

 

38 minutes ago, BamaBirdLady said:

It is called deductive logic.

So in the simplest terms for you, if A is B and B is C then is A and C the same? 

A is Trump, B is Covid and C is Northam.

tenor.gif

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3 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

So a few things about 538’s model...

First, it’s showing Trump’s chances dropping about 1% each day, so it’s now down to 18% chance of winning.  

The state to watch is PA, where Trump also has about an 18% chance of winning.

HOWEVER, I think they are overestimating Trump’s chances, especially regarding the popular vote.  Hear me out...

In PA, they estimate that Biden will win 52-47%.  That’s not simply a poll aggregation, though.  They start with polling average (50-44% Biden).  Then they allocate undecided voters equally — 2.5% each for Biden and Trump.

I seriously doubt that undecided voters will split evenly.  This year, they lean pretty heavily towards Biden.  So that could push Biden’s margin of victory up 1-2%, meaning he could be sitting somewhere around 54-45% lead (at the higher end).  That alone would drive Trump’s chances of winning down farther.

But if that holds across all of the swing states — and most elections undecided voters swing the same way across all the states — then nationally Trump’s chances of winning drop quite a bit.  So it could be that 538’s model is too optimistic for Trump this year.  We obviously won’t know until the election, but the point is that I think there’s just as much reason to believe that their model is underestimating Biden’s lead as there is to think they are overestimating it.

So what kind of down ballot damage is the GOP looking at? Looking at 538, I see that it's a tight presidential race in GA, but they are predicting both GOP senators to most likely win. It seems like those races would be closer if Trump is in so much trouble. 

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5 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

One other thing — the state to watch in the polls is PA.  But the state to watch on Election Night is Florida.  The reason is that it’s likely that Florida won’t have a delay in reporting its final votes on election night.  And there is no path for Trump winning that doesn’t include Florida.  There might be delays in PA and other swing states, but if Biden wins Florida then it’s game over.

Why would Biden win Florida when they just elected Trump Jr to the governorship and Voldemort to the Senate?

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1 minute ago, Corn Tooth said:

Why would Biden win Florida when they just elected Trump Jr to the governorship and Voldemort to the Senate?

Maybe because of that?

Those retirees in Fla probably aren't too happy with the cavalier attitude he's taken with their lives. And when I say he I mean Trump and Governor Trump Jr. 

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22 minutes ago, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

The dude SAID IT HIMSELF that he was/is lying about how bad it is! 
 

What da &uck is wrong with the 34 and 11 percent people!!?

What was really stupid is when the doc was asked if Trump was on oxygen and his doc said "I'll have to ask the nurses". WTH   the nurses call the shots? 

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29 minutes ago, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

The dude SAID IT HIMSELF that he was/is lying about how bad it is! 
 

What da &uck is wrong with the 34 and 11 percent people!!?

There is something else about this that I don't think has garnered attention:  He told Woodward exactly how dangerous this thing was way back in February/March.  Yet he has been reckless with his own people and in his own life.  He made some kind of comment that he wasn't worried about it personally.  He didn't think he would get it.

When it comes to descending, whether on road bikes or trails, I like to say that you are only as safe as your confidence level. . . . .  Unless you are delusional.

Trump is delusional.  He knew the hazards, but his "gut" or something told him that it was not a concern for him.  There was no substantive evidence to support that instinctive belief.  

Trump is delusional.  And he is our President.

RamiAdventure: Face plant...then walking in the rain

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15 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

So a few things about 538’s model...

First, it’s showing Trump’s chances dropping about 1% each day, so it’s now down to 18% chance of winning.  

The state to watch is PA, where Trump also has about an 18% chance of winning.

HOWEVER, I think they are overestimating Trump’s chances, especially regarding the popular vote.  Hear me out...

In PA, they estimate that Biden will win 52-47%.  That’s not simply a poll aggregation, though.  They start with polling average (50-44% Biden).  Then they allocate undecided voters equally — 2.5% each for Biden and Trump.

I seriously doubt that undecided voters will split evenly.  This year, they lean pretty heavily towards Biden.  So that could push Biden’s margin of victory up 1-2%, meaning he could be sitting somewhere around 54-45% lead (at the higher end).  That alone would drive Trump’s chances of winning down farther.

But if that holds across all of the swing states — and most elections undecided voters swing the same way across all the states — then nationally Trump’s chances of winning drop quite a bit.  So it could be that 538’s model is too optimistic for Trump this year.  We obviously won’t know until the election, but the point is that I think there’s just as much reason to believe that their model is underestimating Biden’s lead as there is to think they are overestimating it.

Wouldn't a Trump win being decided by PA mean that he also swept those rust belt states again? Otherwise, I'd assume he would need to flip a couple of states that were blue in 2016, which seems unlikely. His chances in WI and MI look even slimmer than in PA, at least right now. 

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5 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

There is something else about this that I don't think has garnered attention:  He told Woodward exactly how dangerous this thing was way back in February/March.  Yet he has been reckless with his own people and in his own life.  He made some kind of comment that he wasn't worried about it personally.  He didn't think he would get it.

When it comes to descending, whether on road bikes or trails, I like to say that you are only as safe as your confidence level.  Unless you are delusional.

Trump is delusional.  He knew the hazards, but his "gut" or something told him that it was not a concern for him.  There was no substantive evidence to support that instinctive belief.  

Trump is delusional.  And he is our President.

He shoots from the hip without any forethought. Not that I'm insinuating he is capable of thinking things out before hand. He can't because that's who he is.

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29 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

It’s partisanship.  I know it’s hard to believe, but there’s 35% of the public who will literally believe anything that Trump tells them.  There’s also about the same percentage that believes literally anything the Dems tell them.  Party identification is the strongest identity most people have, second only to religion.  

Not coincidentally, that is also the approximate percentage of Americans who believe in Astrology.

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3 minutes ago, DawgBone said:

Wouldn't a Trump win being decided by PA mean that he also swept those rust belt states again? Otherwise, I'd assume he would need to flip a couple of states that were blue in 2016, which seems unlikely. His chances in WI and MI look even slimmer than in PA, at least right now. 

After the debate, Pennsylvania polls jumped for Biden showing him up by 7 points, a bit more than the 5 pts in Florida.

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25 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

So a few things about 538’s model...

First, it’s showing Trump’s chances dropping about 1% each day, so it’s now down to 18% chance of winning.  

The state to watch is PA, where Trump also has about an 18% chance of winning.

HOWEVER, I think they are overestimating Trump’s chances, especially regarding the popular vote.  Hear me out...

In PA, they estimate that Biden will win 52-47%.  That’s not simply a poll aggregation, though.  They start with polling average (50-44% Biden).  Then they allocate undecided voters equally — 2.5% each for Biden and Trump.

I seriously doubt that undecided voters will split evenly.  This year, they lean pretty heavily towards Biden.  So that could push Biden’s margin of victory up 1-2%, meaning he could be sitting somewhere around 54-45% lead (at the higher end).  That alone would drive Trump’s chances of winning down farther.

But if that holds across all of the swing states — and most elections undecided voters swing the same way across all the states — then nationally Trump’s chances of winning drop quite a bit.  So it could be that 538’s model is too optimistic for Trump this year.  We obviously won’t know until the election, but the point is that I think there’s just as much reason to believe that their model is underestimating Biden’s lead as there is to think they are overestimating it.

That is still too close to overcome other factors that could impact the result:  Although folks are voting now, they are probably the most motivated.  What about the less motivated?  Trump has a month to make them LESS motivated.  He was highly effective in 2016 in undermining Clinton among folks that WOULD have voted for her such that he was able to eek out a victory despite his lack of popularity.

Of course, the more traditional, institutional voter suppression techniques will also be in place and are not reflected in the polling.

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