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wartownfalcon

Kirk Herbstreit says....

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18 minutes ago, Dr_truth189 said:

 

Ladies and gentlemen, please do not take scientific information from a person with a Climate change denial video in their signature.  

Your the fool falling for ********. I tend to care what climatologists say about the climate more so than Bill Nye the i domt have a degree in any scientific discipline guy. If its crazy to listen to ONLY qualified experts them Im bat **** bud.

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6 minutes ago, Artys Arryn said:

This isn't Trump's fault. People trying to make this political right now one way or another don't have the right priorities. The only thing important right now is getting accurate information to people and saving lives. 

 

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38 minutes ago, stizz said:

There's zero way this lasts a year. You are looking at absolute worst case scenario instead of getting in the other side of the curve.

Actually, the most reasonable timeline for a vaccination cure is 12-18 months. But that wasn't the point of my post. It's that 300 deaths in a day from a disease is a nightmarish number.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Your the fool falling for ********. I tend to care what climatologists say about the climate more so than Bill Nye the i domt have a degree in any scientific discipline guy. If its crazy to listen to ONLY qualified experts them Im bat **** bud.

Does Nasa count as a qualified expert?  And if not, who is qualified? 

Edited by Dr_truth189

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19 minutes ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Nobody said i t wasn't a big deal. Lol. Shutting down the economy is a huge deal. People still gather because we are social animals. We go crazy without contact. Infants literally die without contact. It's why China had to beat people breaking curfew, and weld offenders inside their homes. Sure a lot of them also "disappeared" bu t it takes unprecedented acts to change human nature

That's not accurate bro the president said initially this wasnt a problem  and it will blow over quickly.  Socially creatures or not you should not put yourself at risk as well as others if you can avoid it. His wording made it as if this wasnt a problem. 

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2 minutes ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Your the fool falling for ********. I tend to care what climatologists say about the climate more so than Bill Nye the i domt have a degree in any scientific discipline guy. If its crazy to listen to ONLY qualified experts them Im bat **** bud.

That’s been a heaven send down this way with everyone inside air quality and pollution because of it has decreased in some cases by up to 80%.Having empty streets and no cars moving on them has a tendency to do that.

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18 minutes ago, gazoo said:

They also said it will peak in mid April now, far sooner than the apocalyptic projections we were hearing just a few weeks ago.

Keep in mind just two weeks ago the same officials were forecasting millions of Americans dying, now it’s between 100,000 and 200,000. For perspective of scale,  we lost 78,000 Americans to the flu in 2017 flu season. 

The FDA just last night issued an “Emergency Authorization” for the use of a drug hydroxychloroquine that despite US media reports, has passed multiple clinical trials in multiple countries and is in wide scale use in several of them. The drug has proven to kill the virus in 5 days based on a few recent studies.  One physician in New York had Coronavirus savaging his community, and he administered this drug protocol to 699 of his patients, most over age of 60, and only 4 had to be hospitalized and not a single one of them died. 

Now that FDA has issued their emergency authorization, 8 manufacturers are cranking up the production and will have 250 million dosages ready by April 15th. 

The reason for the changing numbers is human behavior.  With no social distancing and intervention, this illness likely kills 2-3 million in the US.

With social distancing buying time for a treatment and then possibly a vaccine, you're looking at 100k-200k.

It's not magic, or even changing minds.  It's the difference between if we deprive the virus of food (us) and starve it out vs if we don't.

Also, there is zero purpose in minimizing an unknown contagious exponentially growing pathogen.  The best thing to do is take it seriously immediately, and hope it's not as bad as you think.  Not taking it seriously and trying to react later is the exact opposite thing to do on anything with exponential growth.

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4 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Let’s  try and keep politics out of here.  It’s a 4 letter word sure to prevent logical discussion

I would agree notmally but MSM is pushing CCP propaganda so im going full knees and elbows to disprove it.

If.we.shake our heads and ignore it then next mon th the narrative could b e that this originated from US servicemen visiting Wuha n. 

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16 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I doubt anyone from the WH projected millions of deaths.  The only thing I’ve seen is that 1.7 million is absolute worst case scenerio

The study from the UK that predicted 2.2 million deaths in United States and 500,000 deaths in the UK was used to craft policy. Dr Birx referenced this study last Friday stating predictions were wildy overestimated.

More on the drug that the FDA just issued an Emergency Authorization on. While the activist media still claims theres little evidence this drug works, the media is full of __It. There are multiple peer-reviewed scientific studies conducted by renowned scientists from multiple countries, as well as strong anecdotal evidence of this drug’s incredible, near-100% effectiveness in fighting this virus. 

It costs only $20 for the total medication package, only need to take it 5 days, and it literraly kills the virus.

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16 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I’m going to remove the following from my top 10 bucket list of things to do before I die:

     •  #7:  Eat a bat while visiting China

Such a big item on your list to just totally drop it. The meat is possibly viral, but I'm thinking those bat wings are probably still good to go, bro. :slick:

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I think the way to combat this is to cut its legs off.

Since it’s so contagious you just sit it out for a month and reevaluate.It buys you time to find the vaccines needed to really bury it but for the mean time containing it is the key.

See what mass containment of the population indoors does and as above I bet you the results change quickly.Business and everyone takes a hit no way around it.If your committed to stopping it you’ll do it.If you go into it with a sticking plaster effect you won’t get the results required.

It all starts at the top with the messaging.

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12 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

Also, there is zero purpose in minimizing an unknown contagious exponentially growing pathogen.  The best thing to do is take it seriously immediately, and hope it's not as bad as you think.  Not taking it seriously and trying to react later is the exact opposite thing to do on anything with exponential growth.

The accusation I'm not taking it seriously or minimizing this pandemic is utter and complete BS. I am posting facts you dont like, so you are misrepresenting my position. 

It is goverment healthcare experts who severely reduced the death count , not me.

It is goverement healthcare experts that reported they believe this will peak in mid April, not me. 

It is the FDA who just issued the emergency authorization of the drug chloroquine last night, not me.

It is 8 manufactorers who are ramping up the production of the drug to provide the workd 250 million doses by mid April, not me.

I, in the meantime, have taken this very seriously, have been working from hime for 2 weeks now, only gone out for groceries,  and will continue to do so until told by the experts something different.

 

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8 minutes ago, gazoo said:

The study from the UK that predicted 2.2 million deaths in United States and 500,000 deaths in the UK was used to craft policy. Dr Birx referenced this study last Friday stating predictions were wildy overestimated.

More on the drug that the FDA just issued an Emergency Authorization on. While the activist media still claims theres little evidence this drug works, the media is full of __It. There are multiple peer-reviewed scientific studies conducted by renowned scientists from multiple countries, as well as strong anecdotal evidence of this drug’s incredible, near-100% effectiveness in fighting this virus. 

It costs only $20 for the total medication package, only need to take it 5 days, and it literraly kills the virus.

I know for a fact it is being used locally for the last couple of weeks. Not sure about the results thus far due to confidentiality. I'm sure however if they were not seeing positive markers they would have stopped using it by now.

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Man this is a misinformation parade.

This thing has been an obvious problem to scientists and epidemiologists since January.

The current administration, whichever side you vote for, claimed it was going to go away, wouldn't come here, or was like a flu for weeks.  I know because I was following it and already had modeled the likely death total given it's multiplication rate and presumed mortality rate.  So I was bewildered that instead of alerting people to the danger, they were saying take your flights, take your trips, this is no big deal.

The only way to get ahead of something like this is to take it seriously at first, and prevent the big numbers.  When it's doubling from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 is when you get control over it.  Much easier than when it's doubling from 100k to 200k to 400k.

And people in here trying to run a "death per day" count on something that is exponential are running a linear equation on an exponential function, which is by definition going to be erroneous.

Also, S Korea and Germany are both democracies and both handled this much better by testing, tracking and tracing.  Basically make the sick people and their contacts stay home and it delays the point at which you have to make everyone stay home.

This will only get better for us if during the shut down they get the numbers down, and take that shutdown time as time to implement a system whereby they can test everyone, quarantine people who test positive, and track their contacts to prevent rapid re-spread.

This shouldn't be political.  Saying mistakes were made at the federal level is simply true.  There's zero factual denying.  Everyone should get off the tribal notions and just look at what's happening.  Seeing leaders minimize this for months led people to minimize it.  Most people get their news from the President or Governors etc, not from epidemiologists so they thought it was fine to go to Spring Break.  A much more somber tone early was very clearly required and that was a huge failing.  But that was a lost battle.  This is a long war.  They can still do the right thing overall.  I would hope we are all rooting for that.  Because whichever side you're on politically, you shouldn't hope for millions of dead Americans to prove your point.

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4 minutes ago, Dr_truth189 said:

Does Nasa count as a qualified expert?  And if not, who is qualified? 

 !ook if you want to hea r what actual climatologists think the n watch this. I get it bud I was angry at those that deny it. I was a liberal until about 1 1/2-2 yrs ago. Now im angry abou t how the media os used to push glonalist agenda.

 

12 minutes ago, red falcon said:

That's not accurate bro the president said initially this wasnt a problem  and it will blow over quickly.  Socially creatures or not you should not put yourself at risk as well as others if you can avoid it. His wording made it as if this wasnt a problem. 

Got nees fot ya bud. No one gets up and says I womder what Trump says I can do today. Its ok you r a liberal. Good news is truth cures it. You got plenty of time now to actually research what the.truth is. 

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2 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

Man this is a misinformation parade.

This thing has been an obvious problem to scientists and epidemiologists since January.

The current administration, whichever side you vote for, claimed it was going to go away, wouldn't come here, or was like a flu for weeks.  I know because I was following it and already had modeled the likely death total given it's multiplication rate and presumed mortality rate.  So I was bewildered that instead of alerting people to the danger, they were saying take your flights, take your trips, this is no big deal.

The only way to get ahead of something like this is to take it seriously at first, and prevent the big numbers.  When it's doubling from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 is when you get control over it.  Much easier than when it's doubling from 100k to 200k to 400k.

And people in here trying to run a "death per day" count on something that is exponential are running a linear equation on and exponential function, which is by definition going to be erroneous.

Also, S Korea and Germany are both democracies and both handled this much better by testing, tracking and tracing.  Basically make the sick people and their contacts stay home and it delays the point at which you have to make everyone stay home.

This will only get better for us if during the shut down they get the numbers down, and take that shutdown time as time to implement a system whereby they can test everyone, quarantine people who test positive, and track their contacts to prevent rapid re-spread.

This shouldn't be political.  Saying mistakes were made at the federal level is simply true.  There's zero factual denying.  Everyone should get off the tribal notions and just look at what's happening.  Seeing leaders minimize this for months led people to minimzie it.  Most people get their news from the President or Governors etc, not from epidemiologists so they thought it was fine to go to Spring Break.  A much more somber tone early was very clearly required and that was a huge failing.  But that was a lost battle.  This is a long war.  They can still do the right thing overall.  I would hope we are all rooting for that.  Because whichever side you're on politically, you shouldn't hope for millions of dead Americans to prove your point.

FT1ULi4.jpg

 

Maybe because the WHO was lying to everybody about the severity of what was happening to save China's ***.

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18 minutes ago, gazoo said:

The study from the UK that predicted 2.2 million deaths in United States and 500,000 deaths in the UK was used to craft policy. Dr Birx referenced this study last Friday stating predictions were wildy oberestimated.

More on the drug that the FDA just issued an Emergency Authorization on. While the activist media still claims theres little evidence this drug works, there are multiple peer-reviewed scientific studies conducted by renowned scientists from multiple countries, as well as strong anecdotal evidence of this drug’s incredible, near-100% effectiveness in fighting this virus. 

It costs only $20 for the total medication package, only need to take it 5 days, and it literraly kills the virus.

That and its been approved for use since 1947. They act like its some new exotic drug.

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8 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

The only way to get ahead of something like this is to take it seriously at first,

You mean, like stop flights from China back on January 31st despite FIERCE opposition from some at the time? He was called a racist and xenophobe for shutting the flights down.

15,000 Chinese nationals, many coming in on direct  flights from Wuhan, were flying into crowded American airports every single day, standing in crowded lines, jumping on crowded connecting flights in US and filtering all throughout crowded Amercia urban centers.    EVERY SINGLE DAY THIS WAS HAPPENING. 

So those flights get shut down under fierce opposition by many in media and washington DC, and now we are told this is so contagious we arent supposed to go outside our homes if at all possible for 6 weeks and if we do, dont get closer than 6 feet from anyone. 

The only people not taking it seriously at first were the media and some in DC who were criticising the flights being shut down. Ultimately, that saved hundreds of thousands of lives, if not millions.

 

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5 minutes ago, gazoo said:

The accusation I'm not taking it seriously or minimizing this pandemic is utter and complete BS. I am posting facts you dont like, so you are misrepresenting my position. 

It is goverment healthcare experts who severely reduced the death count , not me.

It is goverement healthcare experts that reported they believe this will peak in mid April, not me. 

It is the FDA who just issued the emergency authorization of the drug chloroquine last night, not me.

It is 8 manufactorers who are ramping up the production of the drug to provide the workd 250 million doses by mid April, not me.

I, in the meantime, have taken this very seriously, have been working from hime for 2 weeks now, only gone out for groceries,  and will continue to do so until told by the experts something different.

 

Wasn't saying about you, but rather the government.  They underestimated exponential growth and it bit them.

The reduced death count estimate is based on changes we made, not changes to the virus.  So they're not at odds with each other.  If every single person in the United states stayed isolated for 21 days, we'd have near zero cases.  That would change the number of projected dead but it would be because of a human change that occurred.  (also that amount of isolation isn't doable).

I didn't even mention hydroxychloroquine the drug you're referencing, so I don't know what tizzy you're going off on there.

But regarding it, the evidence is weak but hopeful.  They're producing tons of this drug because it is cheap and because we have zero weapons to fight this.  So they're ramping up on an "in case this works" basis.  I really hope it does.  They've similarly thought this drug was going to work on other coronaviruses, and it has in the test tube, but not in humans.  So it's very much up in the air.  But the 2 drugs I've had as most likely to work since January have been this and remdesivir.  Still think Remdesivir is more likely to work, but it'd be way better for the world if hydroxychloroquine works because it's cheap, a pill, and can be mass produced now.  Very little else is going to fit that description.

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