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wartownfalcon

Kirk Herbstreit says....

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5 hours ago, tactician said:

A shot in the dark Temporarily costing millions of people their jobs and risking a global economic recession. Give me the epidemiologist that has a history of accurate infectious disease forecasts, not the one who cries wolf.

Exaggerate/Embellish much? And if it saves meaningful numbers of lives,  for most decent folks the sacrifice is worth it.
 

And again, at least here on Planet Earth, that Superman/woman epidemiologist does not exist.

And even if it were true, you put all of that on Fauci? Again, although not a fan of this administration,  I think they’ve done an overall impressive job dealing with this. But don’t let me stop you, continue with your navel-gazing blame list.
 

 

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7 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Oh, and I find it really interesting how people always use the total case number and total deaths to calculate a fatality rate, despite the fact most of those people in the US haven't recovered, then spin around and laud the US's low death rate and say, "it's also probably way lower due to asymptomatic people and more people being infected..." 

If you care that much about having a conservative estimate of death rate, it's FAR better to only look at closed cases. Let's do that. Really "fun" exercise. All of my numbers are coming from here, but feel free to independently verify the source with legitimate citations.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

For example, China and South Korea have largely contained the virus at this point. At the time of this posting, when looking exclusively at resolved cases - meaning, including only those who have died or recovered from the virus - China has a death rate of 4.16% (3305 out of 79357) and South Korea has a death rate of 2.91% (162 out of 5570).

Now, those are countries that have done a good job. The average fatality rate when looking only at resolved cases at the time of this writing is 18.59% (37820 out of 203479).

Keeping that in mind, how does America stack up? At the time of writing, the fatality rate for Americans in resolved cases is 36.53% (3170 out of 8677). 

Go ahead and lowball pretend-statistic your way out of that one.

And for the record, I'm not saying the fatality rate is that high. I am saying that the US has done a garbage job with it to this point though, and it **** sure isn't the flu.

Wow!  You bash the **** out of the US who is being transparent then praise the regime that caused this cluster**** by hiding information for weeks on end.   You REALLY believe the information coming out of China on the number of deaths???  

 

 

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3 minutes ago, tactician said:

Ok but they are using mathematical modeling for flu numbers is my point. So far they are not using mathematical modeling for Covid-19 because it's too early in the game.

Of course they are modeling Covid-19 already, it's unimaginable that they aren't. That's were those 100K-200K death tolls under ideal scenario are coming from. All being early in the game does is that it gives much larger uncertainty range to the predictions.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Vandy said:

Exaggerate/Embellish much? 
 

And again, at least here on Planet Earth, that Superman/woman epidemiologist does not exist.

And even if it were true, you put all of that on Fauci? Again, although not a fan of this administration,  I think they’ve done an overall impressive job dealing with this. But don’t let me stop you, continue with your navel-gazing blame list.
 

 

If they aren't careful it could be quite an economic downturn. Stimulus checks to support a frozen economy is quite an economic experiment. I'm sure many books will be written. Here's a better idea, just shelter and stay the old and the infirm, who comprise the overwhelming majority of the fatalities, and allow the young and healthy to return to work/school.

Edited by tactician

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3 minutes ago, dmo_dlo said:

Of course they are modeling Covid-19 already, it's unimaginable that they aren't. That's were those 100K-200K death tolls under ideal scenario are coming from. All being early in the game does is that it gives much larger uncertainty range to the predictions.

I'll gladly take the under, where can I place my bet?

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3 hours ago, tactician said:

If they aren't careful it could be quite an economic downturn. Stimulus checks to support a frozen economy is quite an economic experiment. I'm sure many books will be written. Here's a better idea, just shelter and stay the old and the infirm, who compromise the overwhelming majority of the fatalities, and allow the young and healthy to return to work/school.

They are being careful.
 

And that’s the plan, starting hopefully in may.

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10 hours ago, AUTiger7222 said:

You really think each household getting a 1-time payment of $1200 is really gonna make much difference if everyone is out of work for several months? $1200 isn't enough for most people to pay all their essential bills much less enough to stock up on groceries. BTW, how are you Canadians doing on that front? Trying to find meat around here has been **** the last couple of weeks.

The injection is more than the $1200 per household. It is also there to ensure an economy exists post-virus. I don't think $1200 is enough (obviously) for people living check-to-check, but there aren't a lot of options. I just graduated from one of the best (and most expensive) MBA programs in Canada a few weeks ago. I was supposed to be working right now and I don't qualify for unemployment. I have 100k of debt that is still accumulating interest. It sucks, but this is a historic event that I want to be on the right side of AKA staying inside. 

And yeah, meat is cleared out here too. The stockpiling is quite disgusting tbh.

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3 hours ago, tactician said:

We're at 20,000 or so deaths worldwide. The millions of deaths prediction is/was clearly wrong.

Those big predictions were if we "went on about our business" as normal.

If everyone shelters in place, then obviously the numbers drop radically.  Not just by half, but by orders of magnitude.

So both things can be true, that accurate predictions for the virus unimpeded are 2M deaths in the US, and with social measures and testing taking place, that number could be less than 50k.  That's the whole reason the distance measures are critical.

 

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11 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

Those big predictions were if we "went on about our business" as normal.

If everyone shelters in place, then obviously the numbers drop radically.  Not just by half, but by orders of magnitude.

So both things can be true, that accurate predictions for the virus unimpeded are 2M deaths in the US, and with social measures and testing taking place, that number could be less than 50k.  That's the whole reason the distance measures are critical.

 

Well Brazil, Mexico and Sweden are going about business as usual for the most part. According to the theory, they should be in big trouble, no sign of that so far. We'll know in a few weeks, but I suspect their numbers wont be too far out of line with everyone else.

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1 minute ago, tactician said:

Well Brazil, Mexico and Sweden are going about business as usual for the most part. According to the theory, they should be in big trouble, no sign of that so far. We'll know in a few weeks, but I suspect their numbers wont be too far out of line with everyone else.

One hopes you're right about the eventual denominator.

But it's certainly true that distancing reduces the transmission of the virus.  And even so, New York and other cities are seeing large numbers at the moment.  There was no reason for it to stop growing if distance measures weren't put into place.  So we know at the least, hospitals would be vastly overwhelmed were there no distance measures.

I doubt your rosy fatality scenarios, because hospitals and countries wouldn't be being overwhelmed with serious cases at the beginning of the curve if it was analogous to flu.  If they're being overwhelmed when less than 5% of the population has it, then it's pretty nasty.

I do expect instead of the 3-4% it looks like, after antibody testing, etc. it will go down.  But we don't know if it goes down to 1%, or goes down to .5%.

The other aspect is, one of these pandemics will have a 10% kill rate.  We can't always assume the denominator is going to save us.  You have to take action on the front end without all the data.  Just like in war.  Just like in the middle of a storm.  Sometimes there isn't time to get all of the data, and you have to take action knowing, hoping that your action will be more than it turned out was warranted.

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26 minutes ago, tactician said:

Well Brazil, Mexico and Sweden are going about business as usual for the most part. According to the theory, they should be in big trouble, no sign of that so far. We'll know in a few weeks, but I suspect their numbers wont be too far out of line with everyone else.

Haven’t seen the Worst of this yet. Check back in two weeks. 

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6 hours ago, Mr.11 said:

What's worse? Millions of people losing their jobs or millions of people dying?

A shocking number of people have come out and said the former. And that tells the whole story.

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13 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Absolutely. I was in the Navy, dad in the Air Force, whole family is military. And the best argument I've seen against universal healthcare is tied to the military - so much wasteful spending when the government is involved. You see it again with the lip service stimulus bill. 

People get too caught up in the left vs right stuff. If people saw it more as the people together, like a democracy ought to be, I don't think things wouldn't be this way.

And genuine free market capitalism is a great thing - that's why I don't get kids blaming "capitalism" for everything. The issue isn't capitalism. Capitalism is individual businesses. Everything is monopolized right now, and when something is too big to fail, the government bails them out. It's vile.

First of all, let me express my profound appreciation for families like yours, I consider the very backbone of America. Hard working, patriotic middle class families have always been viewed i my eyes as the very best of America. I feel strongly about leaving the healthcare apparatus in the hands of the private sector. There are underlying issues that need a massive overhaul in it but those special interest groups of attorneys, health insurers, big pharma, etc Have stood in the way of reasonable change that would dramatically improve it.

I have a mix of liberal social views and conservative legal and fiscal views that have pulled me in both directions with media over the years which I believe has helped me see broader patterns. I voted for both Bill Clinton and Reagan twice. 

One pattern I’ve seen is that both democrats and republicans on whole have been fleecing the American people over the last 30 years and they just keep pointing to the other party or the then president, but it’s the career politicians who have been there 20 plus years that in my view are mostly responsible for the corruption. I couldn’t stand George Bush, so I’m not excusing him at all, but it so infuriated me the career politicians got away with virtually no blame on that economic meltdown of 2008 when in my view they were mostly responsible.

But I think you and I are on same page here, smaller less powerful federal government helps limit the power in the hands of the career politicians.

Capitalism, in and of itself, has lifted the masses out of poverty and been responsible for most of the innovation, technology , medical advances that have dramatically improved the lives of almost everyone in the entire world. The kids are not taught the difference between “capitalism” and “crony capitalism”, their professors tend to conflate these in an effort to attack capitalism. But the little guy gets screwed the most by powerful politicians stuffing these spending bills and legislation with all kinds of items that give the big donors business advantages at the expense of the little guy, or advancing their special interest groups agendas that often are at odds with what is best for all of America. This is the crux of the corruption and income disparity. It’s far less each President, and far more the senator or house member that’s been in congress amassing power that has been screwing us.

The be honest I’ve been increasing disgusted by both parties for quite some time. Many entrenched in one party or the other have become enraged at just the other party, creating a pack mentality which is why country is so divided. 

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12 hours ago, takeitdown said:

Those big predictions were if we "went on about our business" as normal.

If everyone shelters in place, then obviously the numbers drop radically.  Not just by half, but by orders of magnitude.

So both things can be true, that accurate predictions for the virus unimpeded are 2M deaths in the US, and with social measures and testing taking place, that number could be less than 50k.  That's the whole reason the distance measures are critical.

 

I’m good with this 30 day shutdown through end of April and feel it was needed to avoid the healthcare systems to become overwhelmed all at once and lead to exponentially more deaths.  No way would Trump have done this is it wasn’t warranted. 

I’ve heard from some of the more brilliant economists who have concluded this country can handle the April shutdown without imploding into a long term Great Depression. 

But for those who seem to be advocating for a shutdown longer than that by attacking anyone who is suggesting we can’t keep the economy shutdown indefinitely, we have to have an honest, non politically motivated  conversation about what happens to our country if it does plummet into a Great Depression for several years with unemployment over 30% which a new report showed would happen. Many people lose everything they’ve worked for their entire lives and the most vulnerable of Americans suffer the most, the single mothers, the elderly who have lost their pensions etc.

The media and some people seem to refuse to have a conversation about the amount of social destruction that causes, the number of suicides, heart attacks and other health related issues from stress, spike in domestic violence, increase in divorce rates, increased child abuse, the increased drug and alcohol related deaths, and the lowered life expectancy that studies have shown happens in recessions/ depressions. 

The discussion can not be “but it will cost lives if we open economy too soon”....which is how media is framing it. The discussion is for “how long can we keep America shut down before the devastating impact of this solution ends up causing way more death and destruction.”

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6 hours ago, Godzilla1985 said:

Wow!  You bash the **** out of the US who is being transparent then praise the regime that caused this cluster**** by hiding information for weeks on end.   You REALLY believe the information coming out of China on the number of deaths??? 

Dude, you need to actually read my post instead of taking from it what you want. I was trying to make a point about mortality rate not being the "below 1%" people are pretending that it is, and how the US isn't exactly leading the pack...we're pretty entrenched on the wrong side of averages right now. The numbers in China being higher is likely, but that just supports my point. The numbers in the US and elsewhere are likely higher too.

Just takes one look at the OG SARS after the fact to see what the mortality rate could be. That one was at 9.5%. This one appears to be lower (though looking at closed cases it could be higher), and it's already killed over 50x as many people. 

16 minutes ago, gazoo said:

I’m good with this 30 day shutdown through end of April and feel it was needed to avoid the healthcare systems to become overwhelmed all at once and lead to exponentially more deaths.  No way would Trump have done this is it wasn’t warranted. 

I’ve heard from some of the more brilliant economists who have concluded this country can handle the April shutdown without imploding into a long term Great Depression. 

But we all have to have an honest conversation about what happens to our country if it does plummet into a Great Depression for several years with unemployment over 30% which a new report showed would happen. Many people lose everything they’ve worked for their entire lives and the most vulnerable of Americans suffer the most, the single mothers, the elderly who have lost their pensions etc.

The media and some people seem to refuse to have a conversation about the amount of social destruction that causes, the number of suicides, heart attacks and other health related issues from stress, spike in domestic violence, increase in divorce rates, the increased drug and alcohol related deaths, and the lowered life expectancy that studies have shown happens in recessions/ depressions. 

The discussion can not be “but it will cost lives if we open economy too soon”....which is how media is framing it. The discussion is for how long can we keep America shut down before the devastating impact of this solution ends up causing way more death and destruction than if we open it back up.

I think part of this is just that the government corruption is too far gone on both "sides" (ideally there wouldn't even be any partisan politics), but on the other hand, I don't really buy this "the cure is worse than the disease" thing. I do agree that a big recession/depression could have disastrous effects, but I also believe a recession or depression is nearly guaranteed if people try to go about business as usual. My hope is that the way this has affected our country convinces people that the system is broken. A pandemic like this can have big effects, sure, but if the country prioritizes bailing out the cruise industry over the middle class, the country is going to suffer. Period.

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3 hours ago, tactician said:

Well Brazil, Mexico and Sweden are going about business as usual for the most part. According to the theory, they should be in big trouble, no sign of that so far. We'll know in a few weeks, but I suspect their numbers wont be too far out of line with everyone else.

The virus literally just landed there. The US has only had a true week of it, too. It gets worse from here before it gets better.

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1 hour ago, gazoo said:

I’m good with this 30 day shutdown through end of April and feel it was needed to avoid the healthcare systems to become overwhelmed all at once and lead to exponentially more deaths.  No way would Trump have done this is it wasn’t warranted. 

I’ve heard from some of the more brilliant economists who have concluded this country can handle the April shutdown without imploding into a long term Great Depression. 

But for those who seem to be advocating for a shutdown longer than that by attacking anyone who is suggesting we can’t keep the economy shutdown indefinitely, we have to have an honest, non politically motivated  conversation about what happens to our country if it does plummet into a Great Depression for several years with unemployment over 30% which a new report showed would happen. Many people lose everything they’ve worked for their entire lives and the most vulnerable of Americans suffer the most, the single mothers, the elderly who have lost their pensions etc.

The media and some people seem to refuse to have a conversation about the amount of social destruction that causes, the number of suicides, heart attacks and other health related issues from stress, spike in domestic violence, increase in divorce rates, the increased drug and alcohol related deaths, and the lowered life expectancy that studies have shown happens in recessions/ depressions. 

The discussion can not be “but it will cost lives if we open economy too soon”....which is how media is framing it. The discussion is for how long can we keep America shut down before the devastating impact of this solution ends up causing way more death and destruction than if we open it back up.

I agree with large parts of this.

The thing people don't take into account is, tens of millions of people sick and millions in hospitals will also cause a depression.  People being scared to go out because a lot of people they know have died will cause a depression.

I absolutely think the conversation on when and how to go back to work needs to be had.  We can't all stay home for 18 months.

We stay home until the virus subsides to manageable numbers, and then we have to have easy testing in place everywhere so that we are ahead of the virus.  When someone is positive, they and their contacts are quarantined, but everyone else goes on with their business.  If a whole region starts ramping up, you shut that area down but the rest stay open.

We weren't able to do that because we didn't have the testing right.  But with it, and using it properly, you can reopen.  The key that the President and Governors and everyone should be getting across is this:  The more effective we are at distancing, and the sooner we get the numbers down, the sooner we can open back up for business.

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6 hours ago, takeitdown said:

I agree with large parts of this.

The thing people don't take into account is, tens of millions of people sick and millions in hospitals will also cause a depression.  People being scared to go out because a lot of people they know have died will cause a depression.

I absolutely think the conversation on when and how to go back to work needs to be had.  We can't all stay home for 18 months.

We stay home until the virus subsides to manageable numbers, and then we have to have easy testing in place everywhere so that we are ahead of the virus.  When someone is positive, they and their contacts are quarantined, but everyone else goes on with their business.  If a whole region starts ramping up, you shut that area down but the rest stay open.

We weren't able to do that because we didn't have the testing right.  But with it, and using it properly, you can reopen.  The key that the President and Governors and everyone should be getting across is this:  The more effective we are at distancing, and the sooner we get the numbers down, the sooner we can open back up for business.

From the economists I’m hearing from, we can sustain a national shutdown through April, possibly a week or two more, before we are rolling the dice to a complete meltdown of our economy and way of life that could thrust us into a depression not unlike 1929 that lasts several years, maybe a decade or more. 

Until we get a vaccine, we can’t stop the infections, only slow thus prolong them. So, it seems to me we are at a race against time to get ahead of this thing from a *treatment* standpoint. 

The shutdown of flights then shutdown of the country for 45 days has bought us critical time. The places the virus is currently savaging didn’t react quick enough. NO held Mardi Gras, New York City Mayor just 3 weeks ago was encouraging New Yorkers to go about their normal life, their healthcare spokesperson encouraging people to got the the Chinatown party in February.  This is water under the bridge but important to note from the importance of the shutdowns.

Since vaccine a year away, and since it’s not feasible to all stay locked in our homes hoping the virus dies on its own, we simply aren’t going to be bale to completely stop it from spreading. That said, over 84% of people that get it down even get symptoms, another 10% have light symptoms. 

The particularly insidious thing about this virus is how it explodes in areas and causes acute symptoms in about 6% of the people who get infected , mostly the high risk over 60 category,  who get it requiring hospitalizations in enough of the population that it overwhelms the local healthcare system.

So to me, if we single out the high risk category and nuke them with these promising treatments the moment they feel tightness of breath or flu like symptoms, and keep their symptoms from escalating into the cytokine storm that requires hospitalization and death, we can dramatically lower the crisis part of this pandemic, get back to work in phases I believe starting May 1st. Also, testing for those who already had it which I think is way more of the population than is known at this point, and letting them get back to work now, we don’t have to worry about creating another Great Depression.

So far everything has been played well. Imperfectly, but well nonetheless.

I do see light at end of tunnel.

 

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11 hours ago, tactician said:

We're at 20,000 or so deaths worldwide. The millions of deaths prediction is/was clearly wrong.

Oops, 42,000 now. Obviously way overblown!

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4 minutes ago, dmo_dlo said:

Oops, 42,000 now. Obviously way overblown!

In the United States, the deaths are going to start to spike bigtime over the next 2 weeks. We are about to hot the very worse of the very worst 2 weeks according to Fauci. 

It can be misleading to group world stats with US stats as much of the world is behind us, this is going to continue to savage other countries well after we’ve got it under control here.

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1 hour ago, gazoo said:

From the economists I’m hearing from, we can sustain a national shutdown through April, possibly a week or two more, before we are rolling the dice to a complete meltdown of our economy and way of life that could thrust us into a depression not unlike 1929 that lasts several years, maybe a decade or more. 

Until we get a vaccine, we can’t stop the infections, only slow thus prolong them. So, it seems to me we are at a race against time to get ahead of this thing from a *treatment* standpoint. 

The shutdown of flights then shutdown of the country for 45 days has bought us critical time. The places the virus is currently savaging didn’t react quick enough. NO held Mardi Gras, New York City Mayor just 3 weeks ago was encouraging New Yorkers to go about their normal life, their healthcare spokesperson encouraging people to got the the Chinatown party in February.  This is water under the bridge but important to note from the importance of the shutdowns.

Since vaccine a year away, and since it’s not feasible to all stay locked in our homes hoping the virus dies on its own, we simply aren’t going to be bale to completely stop it from spreading.over 84% of people that get it down even get symptoms, another 10% have light symptoms. 

The particularly insidious thing about this virus is how it explodes in areas and causes acute symptoms in about 6% of the people, mostly the high risk over 60 category,  who get it requiring hospitalizations in enough of the population that it overwhelms the local healthcare system.

So to me, if we single out the high risk category and nuke them with these promising treatments the moment they feel tightness of breath or flu like symptoms, and keep their symptoms from escalating into the cytokine storm that requires hospitalization and death, we can dramatically lower the crisis part of this pandemic, get back to work in phases I believe starting May 1st. Also, testing for those who already had it which I think is way more of the population than is known at this point, and letting them get back to work now, we don’t have to worry about creating another Great Depression.

So far everything has been played well. Imperfectly, but well nonetheless.

I do see light at end of tunnel.

 

All that plus Potential game changing therapeutics are rapidly coming to the marketplace:

https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/

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2 hours ago, Vandy said:

Yep, there have been many clinical trials proving it works, just not one here in the Unted States yet.

Not only have we been using it in our hospitals and medical clinics for at least a few weeks now on an "off label" use,  the FDA has already approved the use of these drugs to treat CV by issuing an "Emergency Authorization" on Sunday and media still pushes the narratibe there is no evidence these drugs work. Ive never seen anything like this before. There is mounting information from numerous credible healthare offcials from all over the world that this works when administered pror to the cytokine storm. So while I agree we cannot state conclusively this works on a large scale, the media pouring cold water on it and refusing to tell the public there is plenty of evidence it has worked based on smaller clinical trials around the world and mountains of anecdotal evidence it works , just not conclusive until our clinical trials are over, draws serious questions as to their motives. 

8 manufacturers are dialing up the production now of hydroxychloroquine including a plant that opened in West Virginia about 10 days ago specifially to crank out this drug. They should start having it ready to distribute next week.  The media ignores all this and just claims no eveidence whatsover this works.

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Gazoo, if you're so sure that you had Covid 19 before then why not test your hypothesis? Go out and aggressively seek to expose yourself to virus again, in a manner that's still safe to others. Once you've licked enough toilet seats, for example, you can then go to an antigen testing facility and see if your body has produced the Covid-19 immunity response that proves you had Covid in September/December of last year.

@gazoo I say this in jest but I say this in all seriousness, but you've already figured that out, why, because any astute observer of the Covid Pandemic, like yourself, knows that blood transfusions are being undertaken NOW by people with high antigen levels in their blood serum, thus providing you the opportunity to literally SAVE LIVES like a modern day Joan of Arc.

#Rock On Gazoo

We're with you on this, document the journey and start a new Thread!

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