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wartownfalcon

Kirk Herbstreit says....

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2 minutes ago, Mr.11 said:

It makes plenty of sense considering there have been plenty of cases of people who tested positive for the virus and showed no symptoms. That's not much of a reprieve though, considering it's still highly infectious and could still mutate again as it continues to be transmitted.

 

No it doesn't make sense because the cases did not explode exponentially or show any signs of what we and other countries are seeing now.

So what happened between when these old people "think" they got it and NOW that made the virus explode? Did some alien overlords flip some electromagnetic switch that send a signal to the virus from orbit?

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2 minutes ago, Falcanuck said:

I'll go ahead and belittle anyone who comes close to uttering anything resembling "it's not that bad". People who fudge legitimate data to support their own agenda get it too. I'll especially belittle anyone dumb enough to go outside unnecessarily or gather in social settings. Unfortunately, those acts of Darwinism can result in someone's grandparent losing their life instead of their own.

As for my assumptions, again, you're only reinforcing them. But go off, queen.

LMAO sure thing.

You can't even give an example but at this point I really don't care. You do you, I'm sure you've grown used to that by now, queen. 

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4 minutes ago, Falcanuck said:

I'll go ahead and belittle anyone who comes close to uttering anything resembling "it's not that bad". People who fudge legitimate data to support their own agenda get it too. I'll especially belittle anyone dumb enough to go outside unnecessarily or gather in social settings. Unfortunately, those acts of Darwinism can result in someone's grandparent losing their life instead of their own.

As for my assumptions, again, you're only reinforcing them. But go off, queen.

The issue is the Spreaders not the people catching the virus. People are not responsible enough not to spread their own germs to others so we ALL have to stay home. It's terrible. If we could test everyone then we could isolate the "infected" and force them home, but there isn't enough testing to do that.

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2 minutes ago, Mr.11 said:

It makes plenty of sense considering there have been plenty of cases of people who tested positive for the virus and showed no symptoms. That's not much of a reprieve though, considering it's still highly infectious and could still mutate again as it continues to be transmitted.

Fortunately the more restrictive policies starting to be put into effect are somewhat curbing the spread. Here in MD, lockdown is enforced now.

Yes, after the (expected) jump on the 26th, the total number of new daily cases has hovered between 18.6 thousand and 20.3 thousand. Assuming that's because of policies in place and not lack of tests, things are looking up. The "worst-case scenario" calcs I do each day have come down by several million. If we'd done a national lockdown immediately as the CDC strongly encouraged, we'd only have about 25% of the cases right now. So, I'm bothered by the past but optimistic about the future.

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Just now, jidady said:

Yes, after the (expected) jump on the 26th, the total number of new daily cases has hovered between 18.6 thousand and 20.3 thousand. Assuming that's because of policies in place and not lack of tests, things are looking up. The "worst-case scenario" calcs I do each day have come down by several million. If we'd done a national lockdown immediately as the CDC strongly encouraged, we'd only have about 25% of the cases right now. So, I'm bothered by the past but optimistic about the future.

I know I'm not helping things but I am pessimistic because of so many states yet to "enact" a statewide lockdown such as Florida and other typically "red" states where personal freedom is prized above personal health.

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Just now, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

If people already had it, then emergency rooms would have already spiked!! What you're saying makes zero sense. There was no previous spike in cases or medical needs!!

 

If Covid-19 spreads like wildfire (do you disagree?) then it would have been spreading all this time AND HOSPITALS would have seen a spike!

 

The virus has been public knowledge since late January. If it spreads like wildfire, why aren't all the hospitals overwhelmed already? Why aren't there 2 or 3 million cases of Covid 19 and 80,000 deaths in the US after two months of "poor leadership" instead of the actual 160,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths?

 

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2 hours ago, tactician said:

It's actually not warm weather, per se, that diminishes viral pathogens, but rather UV sunlight. Cold places tend to be gray and overcast.

It's also humidity.  Cold air, even when the humidity reading is high, can't hold much water.  Warm air, conversely, holds a lot.  On a warm, humid day, particulates in the air fall to the ground much more quickly.

Droplets and whatnot from coughs and sneezes fall into that category.

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1 minute ago, PokerSteve said:

The virus has been public knowledge since late January. If it spreads like wildfire, why aren't all the hospitals overwhelmed already? 

Because it hasn't peaked yet. But plenty of hospitals are overwhelmed right now.

Quote

Why aren't there 2 or 3 million cases of Covid 19 and 80,000 deaths in the US after two months of "poor leadership" instead of the actual 160,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths?

Because the virus spreads exponentially and it didn't hit the US until 2020, not before like you are hoping.

 

Look I get it. You are trying to be hopeful; that you got the virus before and you survived. That's a great hope to have, to have fought off the evil virus and have WON. But you know what? That's not what happened. Because the virus was not IN THE US back in November/December. That's why the spike in cases has taken shape the way it has.

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6 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

Also, to say S Korea did a better job than we did isn't to say we want to live in S Korea, or even they're better than us generally.  But they obviously did a vastly superior job handling this crisis.

The real mystery in all of this is how Japan stood in the eye of the hurricane and came out unscathed. I know that there are a lot of questions about how often they administer the tests, but they've still not hit 2,000 cases. They are starting to trend the wrong way at the moment, but it's remarkable how well they've done thus far.

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7 minutes ago, jidady said:

The real mystery in all of this is how Japan stood in the eye of the hurricane and came out unscathed. I know that there are a lot of questions about how often they administer the tests, but they've still not hit 2,000 cases. They are starting to trend the wrong way at the moment, but it's remarkable how well they've done thus far.

I'm telling you right now...

If they haven't done any lockdowns, which they haven't according to this NPR link, then they just haven't been testing enough. Because we know it spreads... and if people are near each other they are going to spread it to each other.

I think what's happening is the government doesn't want to hurt the economy and they might think that elderly people dying is not that bad.

Quote

Some experts want Abe to change his mind about declaring a state of emergency. "I personally feel it's time [Japan] makes the declaration," Satoshi Kamayachi, an executive board member of the Japan Medical Association, said at a news conference on Monday. He said fellow members of a panel of experts advising the government on the outbreak agreed.

 

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5 minutes ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

I know I'm not helping things but I am pessimistic because of so many states yet to "enact" a statewide lockdown such as Florida and other typically "red" states where personal freedom is prized above personal health.

Yes, rural areas are starting to realize they're susceptible, too.

 

7 minutes ago, PokerSteve said:

The virus has been public knowledge since late January. If it spreads like wildfire, why aren't all the hospitals overwhelmed already? Why aren't there 2 or 3 million cases of Covid 19 and 80,000 deaths in the US after two months of "poor leadership" instead of the actual 160,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths?

 

This comes down to a perception about "spreads like wildfire." You ask about a scenario, and what I'll say about your proposition is that we've seen that before. It was the black plague, which wiped out somewhere between 25-50 percent of all Europeans. If we had that right now, none of us would be talking on a message board.

COVID-19 is a dangerous pandemic that is more infectious and deadly than the flu. However, its growth rate isn't what you propose because there's only been like two of those in recorded history, maybe four depending on which religion you believe.

This isn't a zombie movie where people get bit and then start biting others. It's a scary disease that has devastated several areas like Wuhan, northern Italy, and New York. We're all thankful that it hasn't done that everywhere because that's "collapse of society" stuff.

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17 minutes ago, PokerSteve said:

The virus has been public knowledge since late January. If it spreads like wildfire, why aren't all the hospitals overwhelmed already? Why aren't there 2 or 3 million cases of Covid 19 and 80,000 deaths in the US after two months of "poor leadership" instead of the actual 160,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths?

 

Math.

It takes several days for someone who has it to give it to someone else, it have time to incubate, and them show up as positive.

So, let's assume it doubles every 5 days if unimpeded.

Lets say we had 50 people with it at the end of January.  Then that's 100 in 5 days, 200 in 10 days, 400 in 15 days, 800 in 20 days etc until 2 months out you have 200k cases.  Ta da, that's roughly where we are.

It doesn't grow infinitely fast when not many people have it.  But in the same time that 50 people became 200k, 200k would become 80 million if unimpeded.  Exponential growth is slow at first, and overwhelmingly fast as the numbers increase.

That's why it's so important we shut things down when we did.

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5 minutes ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

Because it hasn't peaked yet. But plenty of hospitals are overwhelmed right now.

Because the virus spreads exponentially and it didn't hit the US until 2020, not before like you are hoping.

 

Look I get it. You are trying to be hopeful; that you got the virus before and you survived. That's a great hope to have, to have fought off the evil virus and have WON. But you know what? That's not what happened. Because the virus was not IN THE US back in November/December. That's why the spike in cases has taken shape the way it has.

Seemed extremely odd that I would come down with the worst illness I've had in decades within three weeks or so of the first reports of a new virus coming out of the live-animal markets of China. There was no restriction on air travel up until late January, so there could have been some exposure to people living in Atlanta from China and those returning from China during that time.

I may not have had it yet. If I do get it, hopefully there'll be plenty of hydroxychoroquine so it will be nothing but a few days in bed yakking on TATF. 

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2 minutes ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

I'm telling you right now...

If they haven't done any lockdowns, which they haven't according to this NPR link, then they just haven't been testing enough. Because we know it spreads... and if people are near each other they are going to spread it to each other.

I think what's happening is the government doesn't want to hurt the economy and they might think that elderly people dying is not that bad.

 

I've been tracking Japan carefully for one of my gigs. The government closed schools and every major form of tourist site in late-February. Until the past few days, the country has had just a handful of new cases each day in March. We're talking -maybe- 20 on most days. It's just started doing worse in recent days, which is alarming. However, until about five days ago, Japan was the source of a lot of study from outside observers because it had managed so well. NYT even wrote about it the other day:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html

The tide may be turning, though. There are calls to declare a state of emergency, which generally means that something's up.

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2 minutes ago, PokerSteve said:

Seemed extremely odd that I would come down with the worst illness I've had in decades within three weeks or so of the first reports of a new virus coming out of the live-animal markets of China. There was no restriction on air travel up until late January, so there could have been some exposure to people living in Atlanta from China and those returning from China during that time.

I may not have had it yet. If I do get it, hopefully there'll be plenty of hydroxychoroquine so it will be nothing but a few days in bed yakking on TATF. 

Well, to make the entire situation worse, this has been one of the worst flu seasons in years.

More young healthy people were hospitalized with the flu (confirmed with test) this year than in the last 20.  So it was a nasty one.

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8 minutes ago, jidady said:

I've been tracking Japan carefully for one of my gigs. The government closed schools and every major form of tourist site in late-February. Until the past few days, the country has had just a handful of new cases each day in March. We're talking -maybe- 20 on most days. It's just started doing worse in recent days, which is alarming. However, until about five days ago, Japan was the source of a lot of study from outside observers because it had managed so well. NYT even wrote about it the other day:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/japan-coronavirus.html

The tide may be turning, though. There are calls to declare a state of emergency, which generally means that something's up.

Yeah Japan's a weird one.  Thailand and a few other countries in the general region were also showing low numbers.  There was some hope that it was due to humidity and that would give optimism to summer slowing it down.

I just always want to know how testing is in those areas.  So hard right now to tell when countries may try to artificially depress numbers, and even when testing countries have different concepts (test everyone and quarantine the sick/positive, vs just test the very sick and treat them).

A lot of interesting knowledge will come out of this.  I wish I weren't at such a cost.

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8 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

Math.

It takes several days for someone who has it to give it to someone else, it have time to incubate, and them show up as positive.

So, let's assume it doubles every 5 days if unimpeded.

Lets say we had 50 people with it at the end of January.  Then that's 100 in 5 days, 200 in 10 days, 400 in 15 days, 800 in 20 days etc until 2 months out you have 200k cases.  Ta da, that's roughly where we are.

It doesn't grow infinitely fast when not many people have it.  But in the same time that 50 people became 200k, 200k would become 80 million if unimpeded.  Exponential growth is slow at first, and overwhelmingly fast as the numbers increase.

That's why it's so important we shut things down when we did.

Right, I mentioned earlier that it's like compound interest. I'll illustrate it by speccing out the two growth rates I mentioned earlier plus a theoretical. We were at 33.6% a week ago as opposed to 14.4% today and the 10% rate I'm expecting by the end of the week.

At 10% growth, we'd have 686 thousand patients in 15 days, which I remain hopeful is still higher than what will actually happen. If we maintain the 14.4% growth rate pace, we reach 1.24 million. It was mathematically unlikely for different issues, but at 33.6% expansion over 15 days, we'd have 12.67 million infected. So, these three scenarios have an "infected patients" spread of 12 million.

Once the disease spreads, it takes on a cascade effect, and that's what has everyone at the CDC/pandemic response team terrified. They're screaming "200,000 dead!!!" because they've had a vision of a grim future. So, they're trying to tell us all that we can easily sidestep it...as long as we're not morons.

My sincerest hope is that we're all looking back on this in six months, with some whinging that the government overreacted. If that happens, the doctors and epidemiologists did their job enough that we averted disaster. The whole thing shares the same similarities as an impending car wreck. As long as we hit the brakes, we live. If we don't, fate decides.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, jidady said:

Right, I mentioned earlier that it's like compound interest. I'll illustrate it by speccing out the two growth rates I mentioned earlier plus a theoretical. We were at 33.6% a week ago as opposed to 14.4% today and the 10% rate I'm expecting by the end of the week.

At 10% growth, we'd have 686 thousand patients in 15 days, which I remain hopeful is still higher than what will actually happen. If we maintain the 14.4% growth rate pace, we reach 1.24 million. It was mathematically unlikely for different issues, but at 33.6% expansion over 15 days, we'd have 12.67 million infected. So, these three scenarios have an "infected patients" spread of 12 million.

Once the disease spreads, it takes on a cascade effect, and that's what has everyone at the CDC/pandemic response team terrified. They're screaming "200,000 dead!!!" because they've had a vision of a grim future. So, they're trying to tell us all that we can easily sidestep it...as long as we're not morons.

My sincerest hope is that we're all looking back on this in six months, with some whinging that the government overreacted. If that happens, the doctors and epidemiologists did their job enough that we averted disaster. The whole thing shares the same similarities as an impending car wreck. As long as we hit the brakes, we live. If we don't, fate decides.

I thought the 200,000 dead was the optimistic number...

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1 minute ago, takeitdown said:

Yeah Japan's a weird one.  Thailand and a few other countries in the general region were also showing low numbers.  There was some hope that it was due to humidity and that would give optimism to summer slowing it down.

I just always want to know how testing is in those areas.  So hard right now to tell when countries may try to artificially depress numbers, and even when testing countries have different concepts (test everyone and quarantine the sick/positive, vs just test the very sick and treat them).

A lot of interesting knowledge will come out of this.  I wish I weren't at such a cost.

Australia's curve has taken on an alarming shape in recent dates. Since it's been summer there, I don't have high hopes about hot weather. I desperately want to be wrong about that, though. That poor country finally got past the bush fire streak on March 3rd and then careened straight into COVID-19. And your last two sentences drill it. We can glean a remarkable amount of information from this, but nobody wants to learn this way.

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6 minutes ago, jidady said:

 

At 10% growth, we'd have 686 thousand patients in 15 days, which I remain hopeful is still higher than what will actually happen. If we maintain the 14.4% growth rate pace, we reach 1.24 million. It was mathematically unlikely for different issues, but at 33.6% expansion over 15 days, we'd have 12.67 million infected. So, these three scenarios have an "infected patients" spread of 12 million.

 

My sincerest hope is that we're all looking back on this in six months, with some whinging that the government overreacted. If that happens, the doctors and epidemiologists did their job enough that we averted disaster. The whole thing shares the same similarities as an impending car wreck. As long as we hit the brakes, we live. If we don't, fate decides.

 

 

Yeah, and if you extrapolate your numbers to 30 and 45 days, you see the radical difference between the 10% growth and the 33.6 (which is higher than actual as you mention). 

It's a weird thing about pandemics that is actually unfortunate.  If scientists say a hurricane Is coming, and you leave....you still see the devastation that occurred, and know you were right to go.

On a pandemic, if everyone follows science, the growth rate slows to below 1, and nothing happens.  That's great for humans this time.  But unfortunately it means all the people who don't believe in science and rather their gut, can say "see, I told you it wasn't a big deal."  However the other option of letting it grow and not taking precautions (natural course) leads to people understanding the significance, but it's not worth the price because millions are dead.

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1 minute ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

I thought the 200,000 dead was the optimistic number...

Birx said "up to 200,000 dead," which would make it the high end, although she did counterintuitively list that as part of the range in a best-case scenario. She later added that two million dead is a possibility. But I really, really, really wish she hadn't done that. I know from my dealings with them that a lot of these people are fed up and frustrated with the politics that have slowed responses. So, she went in front of the cameras and vented.

Fwiw, I have a really hard time reaching those numbers in any of my models. It would require a LOT of systemic breakdowns. I've read some hospital reports that state ICUs are already filled to capacity, but we have enough smart people in the medical profession that we should be able to avoid those Kobayashi Maru scenarios.

There's a Twilight Zone episode aspect to the whole thing. Some of these people act like they've been sent from the future to warn us about the end of the human race, only we won't listen and willingly repeat the mistakes. Hyperbole has become baked into the process, but it's done for the right reasons since some people JUST WON'T LISTEN.

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1 hour ago, Falcanuck said:

I'm not politicizing anything. I've just noticed an extreme trend of people who aren't taking this seriously/going outside and congregating with others to be American. Sure, bring up suicide rates for no reason to deflect from the seriousness of a WORLDWIDE pandemic. 

I called it like two weeks ago that the US would be the worst hit by this. Because people think they know better, or are smarter, or are stronger than the rest of the world. Half of you don't even believe in climate change. Or just simply don't care about the well-being of others (this is likely the biggest issue). I, myself, am young and healthy and would be just fine if I caught the virus, but I am extremely aware of my civic duty to not be a carrier. 

Your government approved a multi-trillion stimulus package to get through the next several months responsibly, don't let it be in vain.

You really think each household getting a 1-time payment of $1200 is really gonna make much difference if everyone is out of work for several months? $1200 isn't enough for most people to pay all their essential bills much less enough to stock up on groceries. BTW, how are you Canadians doing on that front? Trying to find meat around here has been **** the last couple of weeks.

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1 hour ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

Your imagination has no basis in fact or science. And therefore you should retract your statement because it implicitly encourages elderly people that previously got sick last year to forgo the quarantine measures that are required to keep this country safe. #StopMisinformation

Let me ask you, did we have any flights coming in from Italy each day last year?  What about China? Are you aware we had 15,000 Chinese nationals flying into USA every day last year? Are you a science denier?  Here is your scientific proof.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing/italian-scientists-investigate-possible-earlier-emergence-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D2IG

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3 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

On a pandemic, if everyone follows science, the growth rate slows to below 1, and nothing happens.  That's great for humans this time.  But unfortunately it means all the people who don't believe in science and rather their gut, can say "see, I told you it wasn't a big deal."  However the other option of letting it grow and not taking precautions (natural course) leads to people understanding the significance, but it's not worth the price because millions are dead.

That's exactly right. Our best-case scenario is a Y2K situation, only with a frustrating body count. To a lot of people, as long as they don't any of the dead, they'll evaluate the situation as overblown. And THAT is the desired outcome here. If even the cynics are saying, "That was horrible," well, people can fill in the blanks about the illness and death numbers and how it impacts them personally.

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57 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

Consistent messaging.  If you tell your teen child that drinking is no big deal, smoke a little weed, then get mad once, then it's ok again, and then tell them it's serious...what response do you get?

That's what happened here.  People were told that it was minor and was going to go away, that it was like a cold, like a flu...why would we even shut something down when the flu kills more people each year?  All these things make it seem like not a big deal.  So then when you say it is, you've already undermined yourself and created talking points people keep using.

Words matter, especially from leaders.  If not because people admire them, because they get broadcast everywhere.

Also, to say S Korea did a better job than we did isn't to say we want to live in S Korea, or even they're better than us generally.  But they obviously did a vastly superior job handling this crisis.

Is that why everyone horded toilet paper and food? Because they weren't worried about this being a serious situation? Ever since the first case of this was officially confirmed in the US the media has been pushing a "we're all gonna die and it's all Trump's fault" narrative.

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