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Farmer2

What if BPA results in offensive heavy draft?

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Just curious on others opinions.  I’ve been playing around on the draft networks draft simulator and it does a good job of mixing things up.  I highly doubt there is any chance of this playing out, but what if:

I had Tristan Wirfs fall to 16 so I took him. Any defensive pick would’ve been a slight reach.  Then in the 2nd round Swift was sitting there.

So, how would you feel if things fell this way?

By the way, I was tempted to take Trautman in the 3rd but took a CB instead.

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19 minutes ago, Farmer2 said:

Just curious on others opinions.  I’ve been playing around on the draft networks draft simulator and it does a good job of mixing things up.  I highly doubt there is any chance of this playing out, but what if:

I had Tristan Wirfs fall to 16 so I took him. Any defensive pick would’ve been a slight reach.  Then in the 2nd round Swift was sitting there.

So, how would you feel if things fell this way?

By the way, I was tempted to take Trautman in the 3rd but took a CB instead.

I had a similar scenario; Judy was there at 16 while D players were taken early. So I took him as BPA and wasn't mad.

JJ, JJ, and Ridley :munch:

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4 minutes ago, The Great American said:

When did we start drafting BPA?

That’s a valid question, but in this scenario only Tua and Burrow went at QB before us, and only 2 or 3 tackles went.  Every reasonable defensive pick including Murray went ahead of us. 

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BPA drafting is misunderstood.  Rarely is there one single BPA.  On those rare occasions, we are talking about a generational type player.

When drafting BPA, prospects are placed in tiers.  For example, in this draft I consider the first tier to be occupied by only three prospects:  Young, Okudah, and Simmons.  As you move down the rankings, the tiers tend to get bigger and bigger.

I figure that at #16, we will be looking at the third tier.  That tier will be comprised of some WR’s, CB’s, and maybe a LT, S, DT and DE.

So to answer the OP’s original question, you draft the prospect in the highest tier at a position that makes sense for your team. 

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13 minutes ago, The Great American said:

When did we start drafting BPA?

At least in 2018 w Ridley.

That said, IMO no team drafts strictly BPA...BPA at positions of need is usually the recipe, though teams can tend to draft just for position need early in the draft...like when we took JA98 back in the day. TD will move around to take a need, but he is trading to the draft slot where he feels that player is BPA. 

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4 minutes ago, etherdome said:

BPA drafting is misunderstood.  Rarely is there one single BPA.  On those rare occasions, we are talking about a generational type player.

When drafting BPA, prospects are placed in tiers.  For example, in this draft I consider the first tier to be occupied by only three prospects:  Young, Okudah, and Simmons.  As you move down the rankings, the tiers tend to get bigger and bigger.

I figure that at #16, we will be looking at the third tier.  That tier will be comprised of some WR’s, CB’s, and maybe a LT, S, DT and DE.

So to answer the OP’s original question, you draft the prospect in the highest tier at a position that makes sense for your team. 

Good post. Burrow and Tua would go in that tier 1 slot as well (JMO), but are irrelevant to the Falcons.

the other issue is that many fans correlate BPA with media rankings...and teams/scouts may see things very differently. 

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50 minutes ago, UnrealfalcoN said:

Man if Wirfs fell to us, I would pull the trigger on him too. He fills a huge hole on the offense that helps both the running and passing game. The rest of the draft can go towards defense 

Indeed. He is IMO the second safest player in the draft to Young. Not second highest ceiling mind you. Could argue Simmons is as safe a pick as well due to his versatility, which is a great part about Wirfs too.

having him would give us a set line w 3 under rookie deals for the rest of Ryan’s career. Good cap management. By the time we would pay them Ryan would be coming off the books and a rookie QB would have a great line in front of them, which would be huge.

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Then we failed, BPA regardless of needs is just a really stupid way to draft. You have to take needs into consideration when drafting players. How stupid would be it be if the last 5 years we took the best QB in the 1st?

BPA is a myth

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BPA always has to be tempered somewhat towards your team's needs. I don't think most folks that preach BPA are saying strictly take the best player available. But rather look at the team's areas of need and of the best players available take the one that fits one of your teams needs.  

If a kicker was the BPA and you already have good vet at the position you wouldn't take him because he's BPA. There's always a team-centric approach to BPA.

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Posted (edited)

Can’t afford to go BPA. The only teams with rosters solid enough for that are normally playoffs teams, especially teams that went deep. Coming off a losing record, you definitely have specific needs.

Edited by 5stripes

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3 hours ago, 1989Fan said:

Good post. Burrow and Tua would go in that tier 1 slot as well (JMO), but are irrelevant to the Falcons.

the other issue is that many fans correlate BPA with media rankings...and teams/scouts may see things very differently. 

This!!!

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Personally, I wouldn’t complain at all about Wirfs in the first round. Slot him at that massive gaping hole that is LG (go watch Carpenter in the first Saints game lol) and go from there. As already said above, if Swift fell to the 2nd, then that likely means other good RBs are falling as well; and taking Swift there is something I wouldn’t be a fan of at all. 

 

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If Simmons, Brown, Kinlaw, Okudah, Henderson and Chaisson are all gone and we cannot trade out of the pick and Falcons are staring at one(or more) of Wirffs, Becton, Wills or Thomas - the Offensive Tackles - as BPA - I would pull the trigger on that before reaching for a Linebacker or down ballot talent at CB, DE, DT or LB.

Stay as true to the board as possible.

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5 hours ago, Farmer2 said:

Just curious on others opinions.  I’ve been playing around on the draft networks draft simulator and it does a good job of mixing things up.  I highly doubt there is any chance of this playing out, but what if:

I had Tristan Wirfs fall to 16 so I took him. Any defensive pick would’ve been a slight reach.  Then in the 2nd round Swift was sitting there.

So, how would you feel if things fell this way?

By the way, I was tempted to take Trautman in the 3rd but took a CB instead.

I thought I would try a BPA strategy in profootball network simulator - that is mostly needs based but doesn’t prioritize screaming needs for lesser needs/wants and mostly BPA - with no trades:

16) Tristan Wirffs, OT/OG - Iowa

47) D’Andre Swift, RB - Georgia

78) Noah Igbinoghene, CB - Auburn

119) Jordyn Brooks, OLB - Texas Tech

143) McTelvin Agim, DT/pasrush - Arkansas 

7th rd) whatever
 

wouldn’t hate it.

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4 hours ago, etherdome said:

BPA drafting is misunderstood.  Rarely is there one single BPA.  On those rare occasions, we are talking about a generational type player.

When drafting BPA, prospects are placed in tiers.  For example, in this draft I consider the first tier to be occupied by only three prospects:  Young, Okudah, and Simmons.  As you move down the rankings, the tiers tend to get bigger and bigger.

I figure that at #16, we will be looking at the third tier.  That tier will be comprised of some WR’s, CB’s, and maybe a LT, S, DT and DE.

So to answer the OP’s original question, you draft the prospect in the highest tier at a position that makes sense for your team. 

I have never seen a draft class so top heavy with offensive tackles.   Remember the new conventional wisdom over the last 5 years is college football systems aren’t producing ready-made offensive linemen any more.

I would venture to say that Becton, Wills, Wirffs and Thomas are all “Top 8” picks in a normal draft.   In this draft you could see two fall out of the top 10 and maybe further if teams with needs like Jets and Bucs go in another direction.

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1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

I thought I would try a BPA strategy in profootball network simulator - that is mostly needs based but doesn’t prioritize screaming needs for lesser needs/wants and mostly BPA - with no trades:

16) Tristan Wirffs, OT/OG - Iowa

47) D’Andre Swift, RB - Georgia

78) Noah Igbinoghene, CB - Auburn

119) Jordyn Brooks, OLB - Texas Tech

143) McTelvin Agim, DT/pasrush - Arkansas 

7th rd) whatever
 

wouldn’t hate it.

Those were my same 3 picks first picks.  I do like that sim.  If nothing else it’s pretty eye opening that we should be able to get some pretty good players in rounds 2 & 3.

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