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FalconsIn2012

Tony Dungy Winston Very Similar to P. Manning Thru 5 Years

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This is a very odd article.  There are parts I agree with but can’t stand the race card being used here....regardless, it’s an interesting read

 

 
 
 
Chuck Modiano
 

Only five quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown for more than 5,100 yards in a single season. They are: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees (four times), Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston.

Winston, despite all you hear to the contrary, is keeping some pretty elite company

 

What kind of numbers would he put up if given a running game or a defense? What if he had coaching stability?

How good could he be if he cuts down on his interceptions like so many previous risk-taking QBs that eventually ended up in the Hall of Fame?

What, these questions aren’t being bandied about on the cable sports talk shows or in the endless column inches dedicated to NFL coverage across the country?

Nope. Everywhere you go, sports media is fixated on Winston’s interceptions instead of his 5,109 yards. If Winston were a young prolific whitegunslinger, what kind of analysis would we get from an NFL media who will yell “FitzMagic” if a below-average white QB can string together just two exciting wins in a row?

 
 
 

Thankfully, Monday’s episode of the Dan Patrick Show, former Buccaneers and Colts head coach Tony Dungy tried to bring some attention to this. “You look at Jameis’ numbers and Peyton Manning’s numbers in those first five years, there’s not a lot of difference other than Peyton’s team won more,” Dungy said.

Is Peyton’s former Super Bowl coach right? Let’s take a look:

Peyton vs. Jameis Stats first 5 years:

Peyton: 20,618 passing yards; 138 TDs, 100 INTs, 62.1 Completion percentage.; 85.9 QB rating; 4.9 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate

 
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Jameis: 19,737 passing yards; 121 TDs, 88 INTs, 61.3 Completion percentage 86.9 QB rating; 4.7 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate

Dungy is spot on. The two sets of numbers are almost identical.

Manning is Winston’s greatest NFL statistical comparison after five years. Young Peyton’s superior win-loss record has more to do with his superior support, notably Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James. Winston (6-10 record) had a far superior rookie year, but Manning’s 3-13 rookie record helped land James with the No. 4 overall pick. Now consider this stat on Peyton’s first five seasons.

35-17 with Edgerrin James

· 7—21 without Edgerrin James

We will come back soon to “The Edgerrin Effect” on young Peyton, and “The Bruce Arians Effect” on Jameis, but first, can we have an honest conversation about Winston’s interceptions?

Interceptions Over Five-Year period

100 Peyton Manning– Years 1-5

102 Dan Marino — 1985-1989

101 Brett Favre — 2004-2008

93 Brett Favre — 1998-2002

97 Joe Namath — Years 1-5

88 Jameis Winston — Years 1-5

Okay, now that we know Winston didn’t invent “The Interception,” let’s discuss “30.”

 
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Peyton Manning was given all the time he needed to correct his early career INT problem. Photo: Getty

1.  STOP SAYING “30-30 CLUB” or “30 FOR 30” OR “PICK SIX.” IT’S STUPID

Winston’s final pass this past season was his 30th interception, and media had a field day with it as the first “30-30” TD-INT guy in NFL history. The constant “30-30” framing punishes Winston for his 33 touchdowns, second most in the NFL last season.

 
 

Ten NFL players threw 30 interceptions before Winston, but none could hit the 30 TD mark. George Blanda once threw 42 INTs, but fell three TDs short. Ken Stabler (16-30) and Bucs record-holder Vinny Testeverde (13-35) couldn’t even reach half of Winston’s TDs.

Peyton once threw 28 TDs. Eli threw 27 TDs. Brett Favre? 29 TDs. But none hit 30. Why? None had 626 pass attempts like Winston did in 2019. But what if they did? Let’s adjust:

TD/INT Ratio Adjusted for 626 Pass Attempts(like Winston in 2019)

33-30 Jameis, (2019)

28-30 Peyton (1998)

21-30 Brett Favre (2005)

20-31 Eli Manning (2013)

24-31 Ben Roethlisberger (2006)

20-34 John Elway (1992)

17-33 Warren Moon (1986)

That’s right, all these great QBs matched or exceeded Winston’s 4.8 Interception rate in 2019, but not his TDs. Also, none threw for 5,000 yards in these seasons. Or even 4,000 yards.

 
 

Others argue Winston’s 30 interceptions are “going in the wrong direction.” Nonsense. Big Ben’s INT spike came in his third season after his Steelers won a Super Bowl. Marino in his seventh year, Elway and Eli in their 10th season and Favre in his 15th. At age 40, Favre’s best season and INT rate (1.3) came with 33TDs.

Others mention stats like “pick sixes,” otherwise known as interceptions returned for TDs. Let’s start here.

 
 

Favre, Marino, Namath, Brees. Peyton.

These are the NFL career leaders in “pick-sixes.” Not a bad list. When Winston set a new record with his seventh pick-six, less attention was paid to the previous co-record-holder Peyton Manning, who had six in 2001.

Prior to 2019, Winston averaged only one pick-six per year. Why? Because it is pretty arbitrary when and if any INT is returned for a TD. That’s why there is a different pick-six leader every year. Citing this stat as if it means anything is just statistical trolling.

Worst of all is when the media discusses interceptions like a permanent mark, not the fixable flaw that they are.

 
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2.  INTERCEPTIONS ARE A QB’s MOST FIXABLE FLAW

Sports Illustrated’s Andy Benoit echoed a media-wide sentiment when he said: “History says a risk-taking QB like Winston won’t change”

Long read...click link to continue

https://deadspin.com/you-know-who-jameis-winston-looks-like-after-five-seaso-1842526841

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1 minute ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

Peyton only had 2 losing seasons in his entire career as a starting QB. His rookie year in 98' and in 01'. 

 

Peyton is the only QB in history that we can truly say his teams are one of the league's worst without him.............except for that 2015 Broncos SB team.

He talks about this in the article and remember it's only a comparison to Peyton's first 5 years.

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4 minutes ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

He talks about this in the article and remember it's only a comparison to Peyton's first 5 years.

 

There are so many variables that goes into this.

 

We're talking about almost a 20 year difference in the NFL comparing Peyton and Winston. The NFL has changed so much since then.

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5 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

Peyton worked on getting better every day. Winston is not a leader and athletic ability will only get him so far

 

Peyton was less athletic. Winston has the much stronger arm.

 

What makes Peyton much better than Winston is what was between his ears. Peyton was a coach on the field, a general in that he knew how defenses were gonna attack even down to minor tendencies that most don't pickup on.

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4 minutes ago, Mister pudding said:

Peyton worked on getting better every day. Winston is not a leader and athletic ability will only get him so far

Dude isn't even that athletic wtf

4 minutes ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

There are so many variables that goes into this.

 

We're talking about almost a 20 year difference in the NFL comparing Peyton and Winston. The NFL has changed so much since then.

This is the big thing. It's his first 5 years but 20 years apart, and he still doesn't have numbers as good as Manning's.

26 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Would it shock you to see Pats work a deal with him?

I can see it. They'd do really well with him tbh. I can see them preferring Winston to Cam.

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18 minutes ago, Spts1 said:

They DO get on Fitz's jock.  That scrub keep a job in the NFL...:lol:

Animation Ryan GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

Fitz is only seen as a quality backup for all of but his 1-2 seasons at the Jets. Winston is seen as a starter and wants to be paid like a starter (that is well documented). Fitz shouldn’t even be in this convo to be frank.

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10 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Not in the least

Me either. 

 

8 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Dude isn't even that athletic wtf

This is the big thing. It's his first 5 years but 20 years apart, and he still doesn't have numbers as good as Manning's.

I can see it. They'd do really well with him tbh. I can see them preferring Winston to Cam. 

Me too. 

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1 hour ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

This is a very odd article.  There are parts I agree with but can’t stand the race card being used here....regardless, it’s an interesting read

 

 
 
 
Chuck Modiano
 

Only five quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown for more than 5,100 yards in a single season. They are: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees (four times), Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston.

Winston, despite all you hear to the contrary, is keeping some pretty elite company

 

What kind of numbers would he put up if given a running game or a defense? What if he had coaching stability?

How good could he be if he cuts down on his interceptions like so many previous risk-taking QBs that eventually ended up in the Hall of Fame?

What, these questions aren’t being bandied about on the cable sports talk shows or in the endless column inches dedicated to NFL coverage across the country?

Nope. Everywhere you go, sports media is fixated on Winston’s interceptions instead of his 5,109 yards. If Winston were a young prolific whitegunslinger, what kind of analysis would we get from an NFL media who will yell “FitzMagic” if a below-average white QB can string together just two exciting wins in a row?

 
 
 

Thankfully, Monday’s episode of the Dan Patrick Show, former Buccaneers and Colts head coach Tony Dungy tried to bring some attention to this. “You look at Jameis’ numbers and Peyton Manning’s numbers in those first five years, there’s not a lot of difference other than Peyton’s team won more,” Dungy said.

Is Peyton’s former Super Bowl coach right? Let’s take a look:

Peyton vs. Jameis Stats first 5 years:

Peyton: 20,618 passing yards; 138 TDs, 100 INTs, 62.1 Completion percentage.; 85.9 QB rating; 4.9 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate

 
ADVERTISEMENT
 
 

Jameis: 19,737 passing yards; 121 TDs, 88 INTs, 61.3 Completion percentage 86.9 QB rating; 4.7 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate

Dungy is spot on. The two sets of numbers are almost identical.

Manning is Winston’s greatest NFL statistical comparison after five years. Young Peyton’s superior win-loss record has more to do with his superior support, notably Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James. Winston (6-10 record) had a far superior rookie year, but Manning’s 3-13 rookie record helped land James with the No. 4 overall pick. Now consider this stat on Peyton’s first five seasons.

35-17 with Edgerrin James

· 7—21 without Edgerrin James

We will come back soon to “The Edgerrin Effect” on young Peyton, and “The Bruce Arians Effect” on Jameis, but first, can we have an honest conversation about Winston’s interceptions?

Interceptions Over Five-Year period

100 Peyton Manning– Years 1-5

102 Dan Marino — 1985-1989

101 Brett Favre — 2004-2008

93 Brett Favre — 1998-2002

97 Joe Namath — Years 1-5

88 Jameis Winston — Years 1-5

Okay, now that we know Winston didn’t invent “The Interception,” let’s discuss “30.”

 
ADVERTISEMENT
 
 
 
 
 
Peyton Manning was given all the time he needed to correct his early career INT problem. Photo: Getty

1.  STOP SAYING “30-30 CLUB” or “30 FOR 30” OR “PICK SIX.” IT’S STUPID

Winston’s final pass this past season was his 30th interception, and media had a field day with it as the first “30-30” TD-INT guy in NFL history. The constant “30-30” framing punishes Winston for his 33 touchdowns, second most in the NFL last season.

 
 

Ten NFL players threw 30 interceptions before Winston, but none could hit the 30 TD mark. George Blanda once threw 42 INTs, but fell three TDs short. Ken Stabler (16-30) and Bucs record-holder Vinny Testeverde (13-35) couldn’t even reach half of Winston’s TDs.

Peyton once threw 28 TDs. Eli threw 27 TDs. Brett Favre? 29 TDs. But none hit 30. Why? None had 626 pass attempts like Winston did in 2019. But what if they did? Let’s adjust:

TD/INT Ratio Adjusted for 626 Pass Attempts(like Winston in 2019)

33-30 Jameis, (2019)

28-30 Peyton (1998)

21-30 Brett Favre (2005)

20-31 Eli Manning (2013)

24-31 Ben Roethlisberger (2006)

20-34 John Elway (1992)

17-33 Warren Moon (1986)

That’s right, all these great QBs matched or exceeded Winston’s 4.8 Interception rate in 2019, but not his TDs. Also, none threw for 5,000 yards in these seasons. Or even 4,000 yards.

 
 

Others argue Winston’s 30 interceptions are “going in the wrong direction.” Nonsense. Big Ben’s INT spike came in his third season after his Steelers won a Super Bowl. Marino in his seventh year, Elway and Eli in their 10th season and Favre in his 15th. At age 40, Favre’s best season and INT rate (1.3) came with 33TDs.

Others mention stats like “pick sixes,” otherwise known as interceptions returned for TDs. Let’s start here.

 
 

Favre, Marino, Namath, Brees. Peyton.

These are the NFL career leaders in “pick-sixes.” Not a bad list. When Winston set a new record with his seventh pick-six, less attention was paid to the previous co-record-holder Peyton Manning, who had six in 2001.

Prior to 2019, Winston averaged only one pick-six per year. Why? Because it is pretty arbitrary when and if any INT is returned for a TD. That’s why there is a different pick-six leader every year. Citing this stat as if it means anything is just statistical trolling.

Worst of all is when the media discusses interceptions like a permanent mark, not the fixable flaw that they are.

 
ADVERTISEMENT
 

2.  INTERCEPTIONS ARE A QB’s MOST FIXABLE FLAW

Sports Illustrated’s Andy Benoit echoed a media-wide sentiment when he said: “History says a risk-taking QB like Winston won’t change”

Long read...click link to continue

https://deadspin.com/you-know-who-jameis-winston-looks-like-after-five-seaso-1842526841

I don’t think it’s the race card being played. The highlighted difference is...

 

Peyton had a running game, while Winston did not have a running game. Expectations were too high for him, hard to meet if you’re not honest with yourself about what is needed to succeed. You need a running game!

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1 minute ago, KRUNKuno said:

I like Jameis.  He can play.  Just needs to cut down on the turnovers.  I think he’s had a raw deal coaching wise since he’s been in the league.

 

I think the biggest thing that's giving many pause on Winston is that he was supposed to become an ascending QB under Arians who's known to be one of the best QB gurus out there.

 

Winston goes out and throws 30 picks and causes Arians to be disgruntled and questions with his decision making ability.

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7 minutes ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

I think the biggest thing that's giving many pause on Winston is that he was supposed to become an ascending QB under Arians who's known to be one of the best QB gurus out there.

 

Winston goes out and throws 30 picks and causes Arians to be disgruntled and questions with his decision making ability.

He had all of one year under Arians.  Sure a coach can tell if a quarterback is progressing how he would like, but one year doesn’t sound quite fair.  Had Tampa not been able to get brady then they would’ve stuck with Winston.  That doesn’t sound like Winston really had a shot.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, primetime said:

Fitz is only seen as a quality backup for all of but his 1-2 seasons at the Jets. Winston is seen as a starter and wants to be paid like a starter (that is well documented). Fitz shouldn’t even be in this convo to be frank.

Fitz is THE comparison.  Dude is one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks  ever and stay keeping a STARTING position.  Dude shouldn't even get back up gigs but gets that too...

Edited by Spts1

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22 hours ago, DonOfThemBirds said:

 

There are so many variables that goes into this.

 

We're talking about almost a 20 year difference in the NFL comparing Peyton and Winston. The NFL has changed so much since then.

I don't disagree with the many variables, but that's with a lot of sports comparisons.

Who decides if those variables make a huge difference or if they are insignificant or even if the variables work in favor of the comparison made.

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51 minutes ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

I don't disagree with the many variables, but that's with a lot of sports comparisons.

Who decides if those variables make a huge difference or if they are insignificant or even if the variables work in favor of the comparison made.

 

The rule changes under Goodell alone made it easier for offenses.

 

During Peyton's first 5 years defenders could really punish and impose their will on offenses. Offenses now don't really have to deal with that threat to that degree. WRs can catch passes on defenders that would've had bad repercussions almost 20 years ago which wouldn't have been penalties and less completed catches.

 

These rules are the reason why scoring and inflated offensive stats have gone up over the years.

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