Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...
ATLFalcon36

Five TDN Mocks (Post-Hurst & Fowler) EDIT: 2 more post Gurley

Which draft is the best  

43 members have voted

  1. 1. Which draft is the best

    • Draft A - BPA/position of need
      19
    • Draft B - Bolster the D
      14
    • Draft C - Needs Based
      3
    • Draft D - Hybrid Approach
      2
    • Draft E - CB in the First
      5
    • Draft F - Post-Gurley BPA/position of need
      0
    • Draft G - Post-Gurley BPA/position of need #2
      0


Recommended Posts

Ran a bunch of mocks on TDN's Draft Machine with 5 different approaches after the Hurst and Fowler acquisitions...

Draft A - BPA @ Position of Need

Fill the most needs with the BPA at any of those positions in whatever round. This fell poorly for filling corner, in the 2nd it came down to Dobbins/Taylor or Diggs/Terrell and both positions falloff hard afterwards.

UIyhSRs.jpg

 

Draft B - Bolster the D

Full focus on building a dominant D, Edwards-Helaire fell to the 3rd in this draft, and was tempting but stayed focused and aimed to get RB at value or UDFA (Though CEH was tremendous value in the third).

I don't think Jennings will fall to the 4th in real life, but if he did he'd be perfect for the SLB role vacated by Campbell. He can cover, run, hit, tackle and rush the passer. I double dip at CB since it's a thin position, though I think we'll sign a vet CB in FA.


The back-to-back of Kinlaw/Diggs is so strong it makes me really love this draft.

CAKwu0T.jpg

 

Draft C - Needs-Based

Just try to fill needs. I hate this draft but it fills a lot of needs.

lfGva8T.jpg

 

Draft D - Hybrid Approach

I really just wanted to try a draft with KLC as our 1st rounder and see how to fill out the rest. I kinda went BPA/Needs mix here afterwards. I LOVE the Top 3, I think it's my favorite Top 3 out of all of them, but Draft A and B have awesome Top 3's too.

lGYWb1A.jpg

 

Draft E - CB in the First

I think this is the most realistic possibility since TD loves him some skill position players in the 1st, and CB is kinda our biggest need (though I still think Kinlaw/Chaisson would be better picks). I like Diggs/Terrell in the 2nd WAY better than Fulton/Henderson in the first, but I digress. I'd almost rather trade down to late 1st for Diggs/Terrell to get a 5th year option and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd but here it is.

In this draft CEH, Akers both fell to the third, I go with CEH because the guy was a beast last year. I go Jennings in the 4th to fill that SLB/Pass rush role that a Chaisson would take, and get good value. Pull a classic TD move and double dip at CB.

89V2rKF.jpg

 

Conclusion

I can't really pick a favorite. I really love the Bolster the D draft, it's strong and sets us up for a dominant defense that we've desperately needed during Matt Ryan's career. I'd be happy with any of these drafts, they all improve the team in slightly different ways. If I had to pick ONE draft right now out of all of these I think A fills out the team most "evenly" but the Hybrid draft gets us the most day 1 starters.

 

 

Update

Now that we signed Gurley, I took the BPA @ postion of need approach and re-did the draft:

Draft F - Post-Gurley BPA/Position of Need

I thought about going John Simpson instead of Anfernee, but I wnated the LB depth of starting Anfernee out at SLB. A super defense heavy draft, similar to my bolster the D draft but a little bit different.

jwtp1SR.jpg

 

Draft G - Post-Gurley BPA/Position of Need #2

I wanted to go CB/LB/DT(or EDGE). If I was actually able to simulate tradedowns I'd rather trade down to 24-28 and take Diggs for the 5th year option and pick up another 2nd or 3rd so I can get DL sooner or an additional LB/CB or guard but I'll roll with these picks anyway.

VJ9bL5Q.jpg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First of all, I can't see any scenario short of Kinlaw being arrested before the draft that would cause him to drop to 16. I could get onboard with Chaisson. Fulton should be a slight reach at 16, but I wouldn't be devastated by that move either. I'm down with Dobbins or Edwards-Helaire being drafted and I love that Myles Bryant kid out of Washington. You have some interesting choices in there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SoCalFalconFan said:

First of all, I can't see any scenario short of Kinlaw being arrested before the draft that would cause him to drop to 16. I could get onboard with Chaisson. Fulton should be a slight reach at 16, but I wouldn't be devastated by that move either. I'm down with Dobbins or Edwards-Helaire being drafted and I love that Myles Bryant kid out of Washington. You have some interesting choices in there. 

I agree with Fulton. I'd rather trade back to 22-28 and get Diggs/Terrell and pick up another Day 2 pick than take Fulton at 16.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ATLFalcon36 said:

Ran a bunch of mocks on TDN's Draft Machine with 5 different approaches after the Hurst and Fowler acquisitions...

Draft A - BPA @ Position of Need

Fill the most needs with the BPA at any of those positions in whatever round. This fell poorly for filling corner, in the 2nd it came down to Dobbins/Taylor or Diggs/Terrell and both positions falloff hard afterwards.

UIyhSRs.jpg

 

Draft B - Bolster the D

Full focus on building a dominant D, Edwards-Helaire fell to the 3rd in this draft, and was tempting but stayed focused and aimed to get RB at value or UDFA (Though CEH was tremendous value in the third).

I don't think Jennings will fall to the 4th in real life, but if he did he'd be perfect for the SLB role vacated by Campbell. He can cover, run, hit, tackle and rush the passer. I double dip at CB since it's a thin position, though I think we'll sign a vet CB in FA.


The back-to-back of Kinlaw/Diggs is so strong it makes me really love this draft.

CAKwu0T.jpg

 

Draft C - Needs-Based

Just try to fill needs. I hate this draft but it fills a lot of needs.

lfGva8T.jpg

 

Draft D - Hybrid Approach

I really just wanted to try a draft with KLC as our 1st rounder and see how to fill out the rest. I kinda went BPA/Needs mix here afterwards. I LOVE the Top 3, I think it's my favorite Top 3 out of all of them, but Draft A and B have awesome Top 3's too.

lGYWb1A.jpg

 

Draft E - CB in the First

I think this is the most realistic possibility since TD loves him some skill position players in the 1st, and CB is kinda our biggest need (though I still think Kinlaw/Chaisson would be better picks). I like Diggs/Terrell in the 2nd WAY better than Fulton/Henderson in the first, but I digress. I'd almost rather trade down to late 1st for Diggs/Terrell to get a 5th year option and pick up an extra 2nd or 3rd but here it is.

In this draft CEH, Akers both fell to the third, I go with CEH because the guy was a beast last year. I go Jennings in the 4th to fill that SLB/Pass rush role that a Chaisson would take, and get good value. Pull a classic TD move and double dip at CB.

89V2rKF.jpg

 

Conclusion

I can't really pick a favorite. I really love the Bolster the D draft, it's strong and sets us up for a dominant defense that we've desperately needed during Matt Ryan's career. I'd be happy with any of these drafts, they all improve the team in slightly different ways. If I had to pick ONE draft right now out of all of these I think A fills out the team most "evenly" but the Hybrid draft gets us the most day 1 starters.

Draft A is $$&

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Romfal said:

I dont like mcFarland but the answer is B and it isn't even close

I don't either.

Some interesting observations from doing about 10 different sims to get these results:

  • RB and CB thins out BAD during the 2nd round, and there's a steep drop-off after that. Occasionally (50%) of the time Akers and Edwards-Helaire fall to the 3rd. Giving up that 2nd, 2nd was a tremendous risk with that drop off in mind because we have severe needs at both positions.
  • Kinlaw and Chaisson went in the Top 8 about 25% of the time.
  • There's some REALLY good LB/EDGE in 3rd/4th type territory, very frequently, names like Uche, Taylor, Jennings, Okwara, etc. 
  • Going off how positions fell off, getting Cb and RB before the 4th will be important, our two 4ths being LB/EDGE/DT would make a lot of sense, there's still value there.
  • Interior DL and OL have some great prospects in the 2nd-3rd range as well, if we end up going CB in the first there's still some great DL talent in the 3rd if we go RB in the 2nd.
  • OL seems pretty deep in the 4th-7th ranges too, especially for interior guys, which we need.
  • In terms of value, it seemed to me position ordering for BPA/need would be: DT/EDGE, CB/RB, CB/RB/DL(EDGE INCL), LB/DL(EDGE INCL)/OL, LB/DL/OL, CB/OL/LB, CB/WR/OL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Artys Arryn said:

B is the best of the bunch imo. To everyone going A, are we comfortable going in with Sheffield and Oliver as our boundary CBs? 

I'm warming up to Henderson in the 1st honestly.

Henderson was gone at our pick like 80% of the time in all my draft sims, surprisngly gone more often than Kinlaw and KLC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coming back into the first round is a trend teams like so if they are convinced about him they have the ability to hold onto him for 6 seasons via tag and 5th year option.

I think teams like us who have top heavy rosters are using this tactic even more to give them more cap control and flexibility.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kiwifalcon said:

Coming back into the first round is a trend teams like so if they are convinced about him they have the ability to hold onto him for 6 seasons via tag and 5th year option.

I think teams like us who have top heavy rosters are using this tactic even more to give them more cap control and flexibility.

Agreed. With this Gurley rumor swirling, and it seems to have some weight to it, it would completely shake up most of these scenarios. It would allow us to focus on defense mostly and grab a guard in there and we'd be right back in the thick of it. Gurley, Smith, Ollison/Hill would be a formidable trio and we'd have depth if Gurley's injury history proceeds.

 

IF we end up with Gurley, it'd be better to take DL/EDGE in the first bc CB is deep in the 2nd, but so is DL/EDGE so pick 2 of any of the following guys in whatever draft order you want: Kinlaw, Chaisson, Epenesa (trade back only), Fulton, Henderson, Diggs, Terrell, Madubuike, Blacklock, Gallimore, Lewis, Okwara, Baun, Uche.

That's a big pool at tremendous areas of need and a lot of these guys will be available in the 1st and 2nd.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@ATLFalcon36 I don’t think it’ll happen the Gurley addition but I’m not totally against it if we did dependent on his medical and what the deal actually is.

I hate this edge class with a passion.

Id just look to add a IDL pass rusher.We have 2 good run stoppers in Jarrett and Davison have shored up the Edge with Means Takk and Fowler.

I’m all for giving Cominsky & Tuioti-Mariner a look also.

For me I’m all in on a Chaisson Winfield Jnr Blacklock combination if we can get 2 of those 3 across the line on this defense I’d be happy.

Inject a Wreh-Wilson or a Breeland as a vet corner to shore up the outside.

Some sought of combination of thee above while adding some oline depth with those 4th rounders a look at returners later and LBers later on I’d be good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As of today all of those mocks lacks a LB within the first 4 rounds. A guy like Troye Dye or Malik Harrison will be needed no doubt. We can’t and hopefully won’t go into the season with just Jones and Foye as our options to start. We need a coverage LB mostly. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, SoCalFalconFan said:

First of all, I can't see any scenario short of Kinlaw being arrested before the draft that would cause him to drop to 16. I could get onboard with Chaisson. Fulton should be a slight reach at 16, but I wouldn't be devastated by that move either. I'm down with Dobbins or Edwards-Helaire being drafted and I love that Myles Bryant kid out of Washington. You have some interesting choices in there. 

I really think QBs and Tackles will push Kinlaw down as well as the top tier receivers in this class i could be wrong but who would of thought last year Josh Allen would last to 7 or Ed Oliver go 9 or Ferrel going 4th ? Things happen Denzel award got picked before Bradley Chubb lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JetJones11 said:

I really think QBs and Tackles will push Kinlaw down as well as the top tier receivers in this class i could be wrong but who would of thought last year Josh Allen would last to 7 or Ed Oliver go 9 or Ferrel going 4th ? Things happen Denzel award got picked before Bradley Chubb lol

That would be an incredible windfall for the Atlanta Falcons. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

I don’t understand why fans don’t think Kinlaw will fall into our range. I can see even Derek Brown falling in this draft.The CBs are definitely in play for us.

Who you like between Henderson and Fulton? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Artys Arryn said:

Who you like between Henderson and Fulton? 

Henderson’s a great athlete.I don’t know if he’s physical enough for my liking.To me he’s an off man zone type corner.

Funny you should say because when I’m looking at corners I’m looking for guys who disrupt inside the first 5 yards and run hip to hip down field.

Basically if our corners play this way it allows our rush a better chance to get home and tightens the windows QBs have to throw into.

 I’m looking man I’m looking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
  • Create New...