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CAP Allocation - SB Winning QB’s


FalconsIn2012
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This isn’t meant to bash on Ryan.  Just interesting to see the data.  Ryan’s % of CAP is 12.5% this year and 17.5% next year.  Here are the SB winning QB since 1995
 

 

Elway 5.20%

Elway 5.00%

Warner 1.30%

Dilfer 1.60%

Brady 0.47%

Johnson 7.60%

Btady 4.40%

Brady 6.30%

Big Ben 4.90%

P Manning10.40%

E Manning 9.20%

Big Ben 6.80%

Brees 8.30%

E. Manning 11.70%

Flacco 6.60%

Wilson 0.56%

P Manning 11.66%

Brady 8.62%

Foles 0.91%

Brady 10.68%

Mahomes 0.96%

 

Average CAP assumed by SB winning QB: 5.6% since 1995


 

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3 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

That’s the point.  There aren’t many SB winning QB’s making elite  QB money.  Only the Mannings in the past 22 years

Yea but you are equating us not winning a SB to Matt's contract and I don't think that is accurate.  Not entirely anyway.  Especially considering his coaches preventing him from at least 1.

I can go down your list and pick apart the differences between those players and Matt and the differing circumstances, different skill levels, different points in their careers, etc.  It's kinda a stretch.  How many nfl leading rushers have won a SB?  Does it mean we shouldn't aim to get one?  No, of course not.

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7 minutes ago, athell said:

Yea but you are equating us not winning a SB to Matt's contract and I don't think that is accurate.  Not entirely anyway.

I can go down your list and pick apart the differences between those players and Matt and the differing circumstances, different skill levels, different points in their careers, etc.  It's kinda a stretch.  How many nfl leading rushers have won a SB?  Does it mean we shouldn't aim to get one?  No, of course not.

This is directed at the inflation of the QB market, not Ryan.  
 

In 2016 Ryan accounted for 10% which is not awful

And we are talking contracts, not production so the RB analogy doesn’t hold water

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6 minutes ago, athell said:

I can go down your list and pick apart the differences between those players and Matt and the differing circumstances, different skill levels, different points in their careers, etc.

Esp when Foles is on the list and we all know he was a backup that season. Even though had it been Wentz it likely still low since he just only recently got extended. The first 4 to 6 on the list is a different pay era all together.

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Just now, FalconsIn2012 said:

This is directed at the inflation of the QB market, not Ryan.  
 

In 2016 Ryan accounted for 10% which is not awful

Yea but the cap also goes up so it should offset.  Like we talked about, Matt's 12% is close to the Manning's percentage all those years ago.

So what is your root point of the thread because I am confused.  Is it about inflation or is it about allocating too much on QBs?  Also a follow up question if it is the latter is...if you are KC, are you not going to give Mahomes what he wants even if it is 20% of the cap?

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16 minutes ago, athell said:

Yea but the cap also goes up so it should offset.  Like we talked about, Matt's 12% is close to the Manning's percentage all those years ago.

So what is your root point of the thread because I am confused.  Is it about inflation or is it about allocating too much on QBs?  Also a follow up question if it is the latter is...if you are KC, are you not going to give Mahomes what he wants even if it is 20% of the cap?

In the past 22 years, only 3 QB’s exceeded 10% of the CAP and won a SB.  The average is 5.2% of the CAP.  22 years is a large sample size.

Perhaps a team is better going with a rookie for 5 years and building a stacked team around him.  What would Atlanta look like with Hebert and an extra 30 mill in CAP space?  
 

Im not advocating any of this.  Just something to think about.  And yes, I know the dead cap makes this impossible for Ryan.  

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2 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

In the past 22 years, only 3 QB’s exceeded 10% of the CAP and won a SB.  The average is 5.2% of the CAP.  22 years is a large sample size.

Perhaps a team is better going with a rookie for 5 years and building a stacked team around him.  What would Atlanta look like with Hebert and an extra 30 mill in CAP space?  
 

Im not advocating any of this.  Just something to think about

That is one way of doing it, but it also exposes you to missing on a qb and setting yourself back for years.  In an ideal world, sure you just keep the stud rookie qb's on rotation and never worry about it, but that's not reality.  It's not that easy.  

Ultimately, draft well, coach well, profit.  I just don't get too wrapped up in this stuff because I don't really believe there is a direct correlation...

Mahomes, Wilson on rookie contracts.  Throw it out.  Brady took less because of TB12, throw it out.  Foles was a backup when he won, throw it out.  That eliminates a ton.  I'm not even gonna get into the early years because it's not comparable.  Which leaves you with the Mannings of the world which is comparable to Matt.  Big Ben had great drafting and defense.

Question is, once you get a franchise qb...a true franchise qb...do you risk letting him walk for the sake of paying someone else less?  I don't think so.  In your scenario, Herbert could suck and we could buy Ray Edwards players...which would set us much further back than just paying the actual proven franchise qb.  I get your point, and it is interesting, but I don't buy it.  Too many variables.

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9 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

In the past 22 years, only 3 QB’s exceeded 10% of the CAP and won a SB.  The average is 5.2% of the CAP.  22 years is a large sample size.

Perhaps a team is better going with a rookie for 5 years and building a stacked team around him.  What would Atlanta look like with Hebert and an extra 30 mill in CAP space?  
 

Im not advocating any of this.  Just something to think about.  And yes, I know the dead cap makes this impossible for Ryan.  

Times were different back then. Old CBA's, Completely irrelevant numbers.

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10 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

The 5% number has remained steady since the CAP was introduced

And it's climbing. Notice how the first 10 years or so has zero QBs over 10%. Thats because in the year 2000 only 4 QBs made 10% of the cap or more.

Year 2013 there were 10 QBs making 10% of the cap or more

Year 2019? 17 QBs are making 10% of the cap or more.

 

That number has not remained anywhere close to steady. It's been steadily climbing.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1593808-the-impact-quarterback-inflation-has-on-the-nfl-salary-cap

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2 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

And it's climbing. Notice how the first 10 years or so has zero QBs over 10%. Thats because in the year 2000 only 4 QBs made 10% of the cap or more.

Year 2013 there were 10 QBs making 10% of the cap or more

Year 2019? 17 QBs are making 10% of the cap or more.

 

That number has not remained anywhere close to steady. It's been steadily climbing.

This.:munch:

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5 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

And it's climbing. Notice how the first 10 years or so has zero QBs over 10%. Thats because in the year 2000 only 4 QBs made 10% of the cap or more.

Year 2013 there were 10 QBs making 10% of the cap or more

Year 2019? 17 QBs are making 10% of the cap or more.

 

That number has not remained anywhere close to steady. It's been steadily climbing.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1593808-the-impact-quarterback-inflation-has-on-the-nfl-salary-cap

Climbing overall around the NFL, but not for the SB winners.  Does the extra 5% on the CAP a reason they are winning the SB’s?  It seems possible...

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2 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

First 10 years of your list: 4.71%

Last 10 years of your list: 6.9%

 

Climbing.

What would coaches not choking SB51 have done to the average? :shrug: It's not why we lost the SB. Injuries are more of a correlation than % of cap at QB. I don't buy into it as correlating just coincidental. It's a framing of data to extrapolate something that isn't really there just because correlation exists.

For example, Chris Jones was on a rookie deal still and without his plays in the 4th Q the Chiefs lose and the Jimmy G team wins...

^The story to be told is...having underpaid rookie contracts before their 2nd contract...perform in a meaningful way helps odds of SB?

That's more the truth here: Any SB team needs underpaid players to perform ahead of big pay days or to supplement highly paid players.

The rest is just a story.

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