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What Are YOUR 5 Most Likely 1st Round Picks?


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If you were betting YOUR hard earned money on what the front office will do in the draft, what are the 5 most likely outcomes for the 1st round for the Falcons? Given that we have seen TD operate for over a decade, and DQ for half the past decade, I think we all can come up with 3 believable outcomes for the Falcons 1st pick.

My 3 options(not in any specific order):

1) Trade Up for Isaiah Simmons - It seems like every year TD is looking to love up for he and DQ's 'guy'. Last Year it was Oliver. Year before that it was Daron Payne. Year before that we actually traded up for our 'guy' in Takk. We almost traded up for Beasley in 2015(thank GOD we didn't). I think with us having an extra 2nd, TD will either consider moving one of the 2nd round picks, or our 3rd(since we have 2 2nd's). 

2) Trade Up for AJ Epenesa - As I talked about the ammunition we have in the Simmons section, I think Epenesa is someone that will captivate DQ and TD with his strengths and power off the edge. Wormed has the ability to kick inside, and that's always been a quality that DQ has liked in his DL. 

3) Draft Javon Kinlaw - I almost put "Trade Up for Jason Kinlaw", but I didn't want to just list a bunch of trade ups. I also wanted to only list trade ups for players that are almost certainly not going to be at 16. There's probably like a 50/50 chance Kinlaw is there at 16, so I'll just out us down for drafting him at 16. *If we need to trade up for him, I could definitely we us going that.  Derrick Brown may be a better prospect coming out, but Kinlaw has a higher ceiling, and is a better athlete. We also wanted Oliver or Wilkins last year, so it's obvious that they would like to address the DT position because we have not added any other DT's since we wanted Oliver and Wilkins. 

4) Draft Yetur Gross-Matos - This is one that I could definitely see DQ and TD do, but not one that I'm necessarily wanting them to do. I think YGM is a solid prospect, but I see him more as a 2nd round pass rusher who will get taken in the 1st due to his size and speed. I could definitely see DQ and TD fall in love with his skills and select him at 16 though. I think he is not polishes than Vic Beasley with his moves and hand usage, but he doesn't blow me away in that category, and he's not quite the athlete Beasley was. Instead of YGM, I am warming up to the idea of K'Lavon Caisson from LSU as a SLB replacement for Campbell, as well as a chess piece we could move around the front 7 to create pressure on opposing QB's, while also allowing him to use his freak athleticism to set the edge, defend the run, get after the QB, and drop into coverage. He can do it all. Not sure if I could see DQ and TD draft him though, and that's why I didn't have him in my 5 options. Chaisson is also a tremendous leader on the field, and in the locker room, which is something we have been lacking since our 2016 SB run.  

5) Draft Tyler Biadasz - As of now, I think Biadasz is the ONLY offensive player uncoiled see us taking in the 1st(along with Creed Humphrey if he were to declare). This us definitely not a sexy pick, but I think it would be a great pick for the present, and future of our OL. We would get Mack's eventual, long-term replacement, while also getting a short-term solution at LG for a year or two until Mack retires/is released.  TD said upgrading the OL is still a top priority for them, so I think this is a very realistic pick, considering that there's a lack of 'elite', 'pure' OG's at this spot in the draft projections as of now. Biadasz(along with Humphrey) are the best draft eligible IOL prospects in this draft by a long shot, and apparently the best C prospects since players like the Pouncey twins, Ryan Kelly from Bama, and possibly even the best C prospects since Alex Mack himself over a decade ago.

I'm a fan of 4 out of the 5 scenarios. I don't think we are considering trading up for Chase Young, Derrick Brown, or Jeff Okudah, as the price as of now just seems to be way too steep. Maybe I will make another one(or two) after the Senior Bowl or combine when there are updated player projections. 

*NOTE: like I said, I'm not completely against YGM, I just think there are much better prospects at 16. If we could trade back to mid-late 20's and still get YGM while picking up an extra 2nd or 3rd, themnI would like that a lot more than drafting him at 16, unless he puts on a show at the combine to show me more athleticism than I've expected from watching his tape. Trading back for YGM is just far too unrealistic right now, as he is usually getting mocked in the 18-22 range.

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Assuming no trade-ups and the Youngs, Browns. Simmons and Delpits hve already been picked...

 

1) Epensesa - I believe this is most likely. Part ways with Vic and plug this guy in.

2) Fulton - best cb in the draft. Not a sexy pick but high value and looks like a Trufant replacement for years. Excels at press/man.

3) Kinlaw - 1 or 2 gap disruptor and is a mountain of a man. Expectations through the roof.

4) Gross-Matos - Tremendous wingspan, sets the edge, drops into zone and can rush with a toolbox full of moves. Will he be the man in the pros?

5) Biadasz - Smart, athletic and gets the position. Great looking C NFL ready prospect that can be trusted to captain the line. 

 

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23 minutes ago, 1989Fan said:

Yetur Gross Matos DE

AJ Epenesa, DE

Raekwon Davis, DT

Kristian Fulton, CB

K’Laivon Chaisson, DT


no trade ups! cannot afford to keep giving away day 2 picks!

 

 

 

It would also be nice to package our 2 2nds to get a more talented player at the end of the 1st that is on a rookie deal for 5 years considering the cap situation gets worse the next couple years. We only have a certain amount of starting spots open, and we need to get the most talented players possible to make up for players like Hooper, Beasley, and Campbell who will more than likely be shown the door due to the cap. I'd rather have a couple 1sts and a 3rd than a late 1st 2 2nds and a 3rd. That 5 year rookie contract is so undervalued. It's also nice OT have another 1st round talent, compared to a 2nd round talent.  

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1 minute ago, Run 'n' Shoot said:

Gross-Matos makes me nervous.

That's why I said I wouldn't really like the pick in the 1st. I out him on my 5 most likely scenarios, because I think DQ and TD will love him. He does have a great starting point with his length, athleticism, and size/weight/strength though.  

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1 hour ago, 1989Fan said:

Yetur Gross Matos DE

AJ Epenesa, DE

Raekwon Davis, DT

Kristian Fulton, CB

K’Laivon Chaisson, DT


no trade ups! cannot afford to keep giving away day 2 picks!

 

 

 

Btw, chaisson is anything but a DT. Dudes a SLB, 3-4 OLB, or a very raw, undersized 4-3 DE.  Would be a great SLB/LEO type player. Can do everything a 3 down LB and edge rusher can do. Quinn could do great things with him. He's basically Beasley with passion, power, and that dog in him.  

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1 hour ago, Doug Carlton said:

Assuming no trade-ups and the Youngs, Browns. Simmons and Delpits hve already been picked...

 

1) Epensesa - I believe this is most likely. Part ways with Vic and plug this guy in.

2) Fulton - best cb in the draft. Not a sexy pick but high value and looks like a Trufant replacement for years. Excels at press/man.

3) Kinlaw - 1 or 2 gap disruptor and is a mountain of a man. Expectations through the roof.

4) Gross-Matos - Tremendous wingspan, sets the edge, drops into zone and can rush with a toolbox full of moves. Will he be the man in the pros?

5) Biadasz - Smart, athletic and gets the position. Great looking C NFL ready prospect that can be trusted to captain the line. 

 

Besides having a cool last name, I think Biadasz does not belong in the first round.  From the few games I have seen, he is grossly overestimated.  

I have not seen much of Gross-Matos nor Fulton, but both sound like excellent prospects, even though they may need a season to develop further.  

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I hope we don't trade up unless we can get someone spectacular. We'll meed dependable players with the cap cuts and injuries.

I believe 

Kinlaw - I just believe he will be a good Pro

Raekwon Davis 6:7 he can play DT or DE

Epenza- He is starting to grow on me and TD loves to draft from this area.

Delphit - He is going to be big-time

Gross-Matos

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I like Gross-Matos  and I just dont think AJ Espensea falls to us. But I like Espenesa's size better if he does fall to us. 

1st pick/ 1st round 16- Espenesa if available if not Gross-Matos

2nd pick 1st round 29-  Trading back up into 1st round with KC (giving them my 2nd round 47 pick and my round 4 109 pick to slide back 17 spots with the pick I take Tyler Biadasz 

3rd pick 2nd round 55- Najee Harris RB Alabama

4th pick 3rd round 78- Antoine Winfield Jr. Minnesota- S and Kick returner Big 10 DB of the year, this also allows me to let Justin Hardy go. 

5th pick 5th round 140 Akeem Davis Gaither LB App. State small but nasty and aggressive, he will slide because he is about 20 lbs lighter than most LBs but that will be other teams mistake not mine. 

6th pick  Round 7 206  Jalen Hurts QB Alabama, projected to go rounds 5 to 7 I am taking a chance here. If he's there we get him. 

 

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We've gone offense in the 1st round 2 years in a row.  I don't see us doing that again, so it will almost certainly be a defensive player.

I'm also opposed to trading up.  This team needs to build, not fill holes.  We're not one player away.  We need a quality draft top to bottom.  And if you look at Dimitroff's best drafts since he's been here, I'm arguing 2008, 2015, 2016 and 2018 ring those bells.  Beasley was a miss, but a solid pick at the time it was made.  Just didn't work out.  Collins was a swing and a miss. But getting Coleman, Hardy and Jarrett in the 3rd - 5th rounds was solid.  2016 was a monstrously good draft.  Neal, Hooper and Debo make that draft really solid, and Campbell and Schweitzer are good role players.  2018 was also really good.  Ridley is a stud.  Oliver, Ito, Gage and Foye are all good producers.  First draft in a while I felt we legitimately went for best talent overall.

When Thomas thinks we're building, we draft better.  When he's chasing, we're in trouble.  Look at 2017:

Takk -- Beasley clone in terms of effort and production.  Possibly a bust

Riley -- Seriously?

Harlow -- Seriously?!?!?!?

Kazee -- solid pick and good value

Hill -- finally producing, but still not a Grady-esque home run

Saubert -- come on bro.....

2019?  Jury's out, but could be good.  I'm intrinsically biased against double dipping and trading up to do it.

My point is, when TD thinks we need to collect talent, we do better.  When he thinks we're one guy away, we crap the bed.  Hopefully he realizes this team needs a good draft, keeps the trades in his pocket and gets the best players available that fall to us.

 

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Javon Kinlaw, Grant Delphit, Tyler Biadasz, CJ Henderson, D'Andre Swift. 

These 5 seem like the most likely targets at this point to me. Obviously who the Falcons release and add in the offseason could change things. I would put an edge rusher but I don't see the position matching the value where the Falcons select. So if they go that route a trade would be needed or they would reach for someone.

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For me personally I only have 2 realistically and a possible. My 2 are Espenesa and K9. My possible if we don’t go the FA route is Lemieux.

 I know the FO will have a longer list with guys like Kinlaw, YGM, Fulton, Badass, etc. But all of them scare me except Fulton. But I don’t see CB rd 1. And I know in my other thread I didn’t want a LB rd 1, but after further review my mind has changed on K9. Dude is a beast and would look good out there with Debo. So I would say him or Espenesa with Lemieux a possible.

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34 minutes ago, ike barn87987 said:

For me personally I only have 2 realistically and a possible. My 2 are Espenesa and K9. My possible if we don’t go the FA route is Lemieux.

 I know the FO will have a longer list with guys like Kinlaw, YGM, Fulton, Badass, etc. But all of them scare me except Fulton. But I don’t see CB rd 1. And I know in my other thread I didn’t want a LB rd 1, but after further review my mind has changed on K9. Dude is a beast and would look good out there with Debo. So I would say him or Espenesa with Lemieux a possible.

I’ve seen Lemieux available in the second round in some mocks. 

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Grant Delpit, Isaiah Simmons, K'lavon Chaisson, Yetur Gross-Matos, and Javon Kinlaw. Not necessarily a fan of all, esp since trade-ups might happen - just what I think is likely.

Still can't believe TD traded up for Takk instead of taking TJ Watt but I'm holding out hope for Takk turning the corner.

4 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Something about Gross-Matos scares me. It could be that his tape reminds me of Busterson’s college tape.

Gotta trust your feelings. It's funny - I had a really similar feeling when I was familiarizing myself with guys and watching his highlights. Just felt like a possible bust, that weird nagging vibe.

But when I sat down and actually graded him, watched a bunch of his games etc, I wound up having him as the #2 edge guy in the draft. It surprised the helI out of me, how good he really is. Did some reading up and he's suffered some pretty crazy tragedy and it partially explains why he's such a dog in games. Not a one year wonder like Busterson either. Not tryna make your mind up for you (not like I could lol) but he might be worth another look.

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5 hours ago, LaurentRobinsonDaGawd said:

That's why I said I wouldn't really like the pick in the 1st. I out him on my 5 most likely scenarios, because I think DQ and TD will love him. He does have a great starting point with his length, athleticism, and size/weight/strength though.  

So he's destined be Quinn's new Beasley prodigy project? Oh nose...  :lol:

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6 hours ago, LaurentRobinsonDaGawd said:

Btw, chaisson is anything but a DT. Dudes a SLB, 3-4 OLB, or a very raw, undersized 4-3 DE.  Would be a great SLB/LEO type player. Can do everything a 3 down LB and edge rusher can do. Quinn could do great things with him. He's basically Beasley with passion, power, and that dog in him.  

Yeah, it was a typo...I just noticed it reading my post...definitely not a DT...not even a power DE!

i seen him as being envisioned to be what Vic was supposed to be (in TD/Qs eyes)

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6 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Something about Gross-Matos scares me. It could be that his tape reminds me of Busterson’s college tape.

how? Anderson lined up 10 yards wide of the OT and ran around the edge and that’s it.
also, their motor is polar opposites. He was easy to tell that he was a huge risk coming out of Ark.

not sure why people are so down on him other than he isn’t a SEC end.

he may or may not be great in the pros, but same can be said for every prospect...that said he hasn’t done anything to lead you to believe he is gonna flop. Has great athleticism, great drive, smart and has improved drastically in his 2 years as a DE. My biggest concern is he is still a bit raw playing the spot, but plenty of other players have adapted in the scenario and flourished in the NFL.

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3 hours ago, 1989Fan said:

Yeah, it was a typo...I just noticed it reading my post...definitely not a DT...not even a power DE!

i seen him as being envisioned to be what Vic was supposed to be (in TD/Qs eyes)

I think he's more of a Jamie Collins/Shaq Barrett type player.  Player. A SLB/LEO in the 4-3 bdvajse he can drop into coverage, defend the run, and rush the passer. He's slowly, but surely, being my favorite prospect at 16 so far. His leadership and passion for the game is what is putting him above other players for me.  Those things, along with the fact that he may very well put up Danielle Hunter type numbers at the combine.  He would add multiple layers and some speed and versatility to out front 7. The true definition of a chess piece in today's NFL.

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3 hours ago, 1989Fan said:

how? Anderson lined up 10 yards wide of the OT and ran around the edge and that’s it.
also, their motor is polar opposites. He was easy to tell that he was a huge risk coming out of Ark.

not sure why people are so down on him other than he isn’t a SEC end.

he may or may not be great in the pros, but same can be said for every prospect...that said he hasn’t done anything to lead you to believe he is gonna flop. Has great athleticism, great drive, smart and has improved drastically in his 2 years as a DE. My biggest concern is he is still a bit raw playing the spot, but plenty of other players have adapted in the scenario and flourished in the NFL.

I think e is decent at a lot of things, but not elite at anything. Even his athleticism(his best trait) is really good, but not top level where he will run like a 4.5 40, or jump 40+l"+ plus in the vertical jump.  I'm leaning towards chaisson at 16 right now. He's basically has a similar skillset to what Jamie Collins had coming out of Southern Mississippi. He has the overall versatility of Isaiah Simmons, but where Simmons best skill is coverage, Chaissons best skill is pass rushing.  Both of them are do-it-all OLB in a 4-3 scheme. Both may very well be 2a and 2b on my Falcons big board as of now, with Chase Young claiming the #1 spot.  Both would've long term upgrades over Campbell, and upgrading Campbell's spot is very important this off-sason.if we can upgrade Campbell's position, as well as bolstering the pass rush, that's killing 2 birds with one stone. Big reason why chaisson is a breakfast riser in my book.  Chaisson is the PERFECT for Quinn.  Line him up atbSLB on run downs, and put him as a DE/LEO/EDGE rusher on passing downs. Great tram leader, locker room guy, and has that 'dog' quality in him that this team desperately needs in the front 7. 

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14 minutes ago, LaurentRobinsonDaGawd said:

I think e is decent at a lot of things, but not elite at anything. Even his athleticism(his best trait) is really good, but not top level where he will run like a 4.5 40, or jump 40+l"+ plus in the vertical jump.  I'm leaning towards chaisson at 16 right now. He's basically has a similar skillset to what Jamie Collins had coming out of Southern Mississippi. He has the overall versatility of Isaiah Simmons, but where Simmons best skill is coverage, Chaissons best skill is pass rushing.  Both of them are do-it-all OLB in a 4-3 scheme. Both may very well be 2a and 2b on my Falcons big board as of now, with Chase Young claiming the #1 spot.  Both would've long term upgrades over Campbell, and upgrading Campbell's spot is very important this off-sason.if we can upgrade Campbell's position, as well as bolstering the pass rush, that's killing 2 birds with one stone. Big reason why chaisson is a breakfast riser in my book.  Chaisson is the PERFECT for Quinn.  Line him up atbSLB on run downs, and put him as a DE/LEO/EDGE rusher on passing downs. Great tram leader, locker room guy, and has that 'dog' quality in him that this team desperately needs in the front 7. 

I'm big on Chaisson too. His motor is unreal, he's a phenomenal leader, and to add to all that, he's an incredible athlete. Dude was a natural in coverage. And at just 20 years old? I want that on my team.

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