FYM's Too Early 2020 Mock Offseason

[Francis York Morgan]

Fair warning – this is a longass post and I didn’t try too hard to trim it. I figured I’d use part of my time off to throw something together that I think is at least halfway realistic (if optimistic) for the team. I’m coming at this from the standpoint of someone who thinks a few things:

1)      Koetter is a mess, but he’s staying, and the best thing we can do at this point is give him the pieces to make his offense look better.

2)      Our cap is currently horribly skewed in favor of our offense.

3)      Our roster is more top heavy than a bobblehead.

This offseason aims to fix all of these things by targeting less expensive FAs that are scheme fits and trimming the fat and bloated contracts – something I think McKay will already have a hand in this season.

First off, I’ll start with a few coaching moves I think that we should make. We may have more openings, but these are the ones that make sense to me, and I honestly don’t feel like nitpicking over every aspect of the coaching staff.

Coaching Hires

Bill Callahan, OL coach (fire Chris Morgan): Callahan has been a great OL coach for the last decade plus, especially considering what he’s often working with. He has past experience with Quinn and would be a boon for these rookies on the OL.

Eric Washington, DL coach: The ultimate move would be sniping Marinelli if the Cowboys clear out their coaching staff, but with Garrett still there, I’m not sure that happens. Washington is likely a goner since he was the DC for the Panthers, but dude is a terrific DL coach that has worked with top 10 pass rushes his entire career. Simpson is our current guy, and I don’t hate him, but if we offer Washington a joint role after Travis Jones left, maybe with some more money and flavor to the position, I think he’d be a great addition. Regardless, we need to do what it takes to get him.

Marquand Manuel, DB coach/pass defense coordinator: This involves Manuel swallowing some pride, so I’m not sure it happens, but I think Manuel being here would take some pressure off Morris while he’s taking on more responsibilities as the DC. Manuel is still a good coach, and I’m not sure Quinn necessarily wanted to fire him, but being a DC seemed like too much responsibility and I don’t think he adjusted terribly well. This position would let him learn more and do what he does best in the meantime.

Now, let’s get into the fun part of the offseason – player additions and losses.

Cap Figure Before Trades and Cuts: ~9.2 million under

This number is figuring in the ~12 million we apparently freed up via restructures. We were sitting at a projected -2.8 million before that.

Trades

Desmond Trufant – traded to the Eagles for a 2020 3^rd round pick, swap 2020 4^th round picks: This is the only major trade I can see the team making. It’s tough, since Trufant is a good (if divisive) player, and he’s easily the best CB we have. But his contract has a massive cap hit, and the team’s defense looked fine without him. His trade value is as high as it’ll be for the foreseeable future. Not to mention, he doesn’t exactly fit Quinn and Morris’s prototype for CBs. Bringing in less expensive vets and competition via the draft would help this team considerably more than sticking with Trufant will.

Judging off earlier reports, the Falcons were exploring trading Trufant, but the sticking point was compensation. With the big issue for the Falcons being dead money and freeing up cap space for 2020, and the Eagles needing both CB help and having a good amount of open cap in 2020, this is a trade that works out phenomenally for both teams. As dead cap is tradable, the Falcons will make this trade with half of the dead cap for 2020 (10.2 mil) shifting to the Eagles cap. Because of this, the Falcons will only receive a 3^rd round pick while swapping 4^th round picks. This equates to a high 4^th round pick in compensation. More importantly, the Falcons get 10 million in cap relief for 2020.

Meanwhile, since the Falcons are still taking 5.1 mil dead cap in 2020, 5.8 mil in 2021, and 1.4 mil in 2022, the Eagles get a starting caliber CB with cap hits of ~10 mil the first two years and 12.5 mil in year 3. That’s a bargain and a half for a CB-starved team, something they’ll not be able to find either in FA or where they’re picking in the draft, especially with the pick they’re trading. And he’s cuttable after the 1^st year for no dead money, if that’s the route they choose. Perfect trade for both teams.

Haason Reddick – Cardinals trade to us for a 6^th round pick: The Cardinals have played Reddick horribly, swapping positions on an every season basis and even multiple times within seasons. I doubt he’ll take much to pry away, especially since he’s in the last year of his rookie contract and hasn’t looked good at all. If he fails here, it costs us 2 million and a 6^th round pick. But if he plays well, we have first rights to signing an immensely talented football player, including a 5^th year option if he balls out to an almost unrealistic extent. We have little at LB right now, so this is an easy move to make, both realistic and beneficial for both sides.

Cap Figure after Trufant and Reddick Trades: ~17.2 million under

Cuts

Let’s get the easy ones out of the way before looking at the tough one.

Luke Stocker – frees up 2.6 million

He’s been more of a liability than an asset for this team, and retaining him doesn’t make any sense in the short or long term. He’s not a player worth 3.35 million. Cut him.

Ty Sambrailo – frees up 3.7 million

Sambrailo’s TD was cute and all, but again, the dude’s contract is not appropriate at all for what he brought to the team. Gono is a better backup and we can either draft someone or sign a guy after cuts to be a swing tackle for less. Worst comes to worst, he’s not going to be exactly lighting the FA world on fire. I can see us bringing him back later for ~1 mil on a 1 year contract if we don’t find anyone else.

Allen Bailey – frees up 4.5 million

Bailey hasn’t been atrocious or anything, but the dude certainly isn’t worth 6 million, especially when that money can go towards free agents at the same spot that I think are a better team fit.

Alex Mack – frees up 8 million

The writing is on the wall for this one. Exchanging jerseys with Wes Schweitzer makes me think it’s all but certain he’s going to be cut and retire immediately after. It sucks, especially not having someone guaranteed to take over at center on the roster (I do think Schweitzer looked better there than at any other position in PS, so I’m more comfortable with him than I think many of you would be), but I think this is one decision the FO has already made.

Declined Options

Matt Schaub – frees up 2.4 million

I’ll be honest – I don’t think anyone is going to pick up Schaub when we let him go. So if we still need a QB after everything, he’ll be there waiting. If not, this is a free 2.4 million. I’d like to get a look at Benkert and Etling anyways – don’t trust Schaub to play up to that Seattle game if Ryan does go down.

Keanu Neal – frees up 6.5 million

Before the injury-makes-it-guaranteed-folks – I did a good amount of reading, and I’m pretty sure it’s saying that the option is guaranteed for injury once the new league year begins. Pretty sure we can rescind it beforehand, but it’s guaranteed regardless of injury if we don’t. If someone can show me something saying otherwise, please do! I won’t be broken up about keeping him.

I love Keanu, but players don’t usually just come back from consecutive season ending injuries. There are always exceptions, but this is a move I think we need to make. We regretted not moving on from Willie Mo earlier, and I’m getting similar vibes here.

Post June 1^st cuts

This is assuming a new CBA is finalized. If not, feel free to throw these under normal cuts, because I don’t see either guy being in this team’s future. PS: These cuts are going to be factored into the cap, but strictly for the sake of signing rookies, seeing as the cap relief doesn’t factor into the first free agency period.

Devonta Freeman – frees up 6.5 million

This one sucks. But again, Free hasn’t played up to his contract – whether that’s his fault or Koetter’s garbage scheme, he ultimately isn’t worth the 9.5 million he’s scheduled to make in 2020. I wish him the best, but it’s a business decision I think is going to be made.

James Carpenter – frees up 3 million

This move only frees up another 2 million compared to what an outright cut would, but that’s enough to sign the guy who’s becoming a FA and who has outplayed him. Brown isn’t especially cuttable right now, and he does have a higher ceiling than Carpenter, so I chose to keep him instead of Carpenter to compete at that LG spot.

Cap Figure after Cuts: ~54.5 million under (9.5 million for rookies and emergencies available after June 1^st)

Before getting into NFL-wide free agency, let’s look at our own guys. I won’t elaborate on the ones I’m letting go and think are less important. Here are the folks I expect we’ll be letting go to explore their other options:

Letting Go:

Vic Beasley: Less that he’s so important to the team, but more because he’ll likely get the largest contract and be the most important for the comp pick formula. We’ll be replacing him with a familiar face that is arguably more consistent on a day-to-day basis (and a lot cheaper).

De’Vondre Campbell: I think Campbell might get paid more than anyone expects on the open market, and certainly more than I expect we’ll be willing to pay him. He’s not a leader, he’s openly admitted complacency after the Browns game, and he’s altogether more “average” than his physical tools suggest he should be.

Matt Bosher: We saw his replacement during the last half of 2020. He’s not as good as Allen, period. He doesn’t need to come back.

Jack Crawford: Not going to be terribly expensive, so I wouldn’t hate bringing him back, but the dude was practically invisible all year. I don’t think he’s a priority.

Keith Smith: He isn’t a bad player, but he’s thoroughly mediocre. I don’t want mediocre as a starter, period, even if he doesn’t see the field that often.

Re-Sign (2020 cap hit in parenthesis):

Austin Hooper – 5 years, 52 million (7 mil): The splurge. If he wants more, I think we tag him. It’s doable, especially with not having any other imminent contracts to dish out, and while I hate giving so much to yet another player on offense, we had some big cuts and my plan is to use most of our remaining cap on the defense anyways. With Koetter returning, I feel like Hooper is a borderline necessity on this team. Making the cap hit 7 mil so the contract isn’t quite as backloaded is incentive to sign, and having a 10+ APY should satisfy him and his agent.

Tyeler Davison – 3 years, 8.5 million (2.5 mil): A pleasant surprise, but he got no interest after leaving the Saints and is more of a rotational piece than someone who will ever develop into a superstar. This is similar to the Jack Crawford contract from before – great value but more than I think he’d get anywhere else.

Adrian Clayborn – 2 years, 4.5 million (2 mil): Possibly our best pass rusher all year, but he’s 32 and signed for less than 2 mil last year. He’s a priority but I don’t see other teams looking to pay him.

Ryan Allen – 4 years, 7.5 million (1.5 mil): He got paid a bit less in his stint with the Pats, but we definitely ought to pay him enough to lock him up. This should be a fair enough number to do so.

Younghoe Koo – 3 years, 5 million (1.5 mil): I know some think he could get more on the open market, but he seems to struggle with distance and couldn’t stick with a team before us. I think this is fair value and what he brings to onsides kicks is special.

Wes Schweitzer – 3 years, 4.5 million (1 mil): He isn’t getting paid big if we let him go, but I do think he’s a solid backup and could totally compete at both guard spots and the center position. Give him a cheap long term deal that gives us freedom to extend him if he does well. Better value than Carpenter or Brown next year regardless.

Kenjon Barner – 2 years, 2 million (1 mil): Weems got less as a return specialist, and he was a great gunner too. It’s a slight raise over what he got last year, but he earned that much. Think he’s a great guy for the locker room and the type of guy you keep around for cheap.

Vet Min Signings (if they aren’t on this list I don’t care what happens to them, yes, that means Harlow/Hardy/everyone else who is thoroughly mediocre or not worth talking about):

Blidi Wreh-Wilson

Steven Means

Jamar Taylor

Sharrod Neasman

Cap Figure After Our Re-Signings: ~38 million under (not counting vet min signings)

This leaves us a good amount to play with in free agency. I’ll be targeting certain players who are projected to be cut since they don’t count against the comp pick formula. I’m also trying to add more guys that won’t cost as much but can bring a veteran presence, as well as balancing out the roster with mid and low-level contracts to make the roster less top-heavy.

Free Agency

Bruce Irvin, DE – 2 years, 10 million (4 mil): Irvin has experience in Quinn’s defense and is, by all accounts, a great team player. Dude is 32 and coming off a season where he got paid under 4 mil, so I feel like this is a reasonable contract. He’s a pass rush specialist almost exclusively, but he replaces Beasley for a fraction of the cost and doesn’t take plays off.

Tramon Williams, CB – 1 year, 4 million (4 mil): At 36 y/o, this might come as a bit of a surprise, but I think this team – especially the CBs – need more of a veteran presence in the locker room. Williams has been very good this season in spite of his age and I think he has at least one good year left.

Akeem King, CB – 2 years, 4.5 million (2 mil): King was originally a Quinn pick, so the familiarity is there, and he’s looked good in limited playtime with the Seahawks. It’s a natural fit, assuming the Seahawks don’t outbid us. If we land him, he can compete at CB and isn’t going to be the potential liability a rookie would be due to his experience in the scheme.

Anthony Sherman, FB – 2 years, 2.5 million (1 mil): Sherman is one of the best FBs in the NFL and isn’t even making a million a year with the Chiefs. This might seem like too much for a guy that Koetter uses on 10% or so of snaps but having a good FB has been sorely missed in so many situations this year, whether that be runs on 3^rd/4^th and short or on the goal line. He’ll help this offense, and I’m getting a possible replacement later in the draft as well.

Ted Karras, OC – 2 years, 2.5 million (1 mil): Karras hasn’t gotten much love since he’s replacing David Andrews, but after watching the Patriots a decent bit, I think he’s filled in admirably. Part of that is having the best OL coach in the NFL, but I think Karras is a good guy to bring in to compete at center that won’t cost much at all. He’s young and offers proven depth at worst, but he’s way down the list on guys that’ll get paid as OL in FA.

Stefen Wisniewski, OG – 3 years, 10 million (3 mil): Wisniewski has bounced around a good bit in his time in the NFL, but I’d argue he’s the best journeyman OL we could get in this FA class. He’s similar to Chris Chester in the sense that I think he’s underrated, but he could step in and be our 2^nd best guard and compete at center Day 1. The best contract he’s ever gotten averaged 2.5 mil a year, and he got paid under 1 mil this last year, so I think this would be enough to lure him to the ATL.

If Cut, Calais Campbell, DE – 3 years, 32 million (8 mil): This is the only “big” FA signing I have us making. The Jaguars are up as tight against the cap worse than we are with less than 2 mil free right now. They have several holes on the roster and still need to pay Yannick Ngakoue. The best candidates they have for release are Marcell Dareus and Calais Campbell, the two of which would free up 20 mil and 15 mil respectively.

The big deal here is that Campbell won’t count against the comp pick formula due to being a cut, and while he’s 33 years old, he’s still playing at a terrifically high level. I’m basing the contract here on a more updated (read: more expensive) version of the one Julius Peppers received with the Bears when he was the same age. The contract can be structured as an easy out in Year 3. He can play DT and DE and brings a veteran presence to the DL.

If Cut, Kiko Alonso, LB – 3 years, 16 million (4.5 mil): Alonso has barely played for the Saints this year and is getting 6.5 million next year. With the Saints having less than 5 mil in cap space, I doubt Alonso sticks around. He’s still played well on a yearly basis and he’s only 29 years old, and he can both compete at many LB spots on this team with his experience.

Cap Figure After Free Agency: ~10.5 million under

This is the cap I’m leaving for the vet min contracts and our draft picks. Most of the contracts that I gave out weren’t heavily backloaded because I didn’t want them to be too unrealistic (ie: 4 mil cap hit year 1, 14 mil cap hit year 2) but go ahead and ix-nay a few players if you think we can’t fit them as described here.

Big area of criticism for this draft will probably be unaddressed needs, but I have a mentality of going almost exclusively BPA. I used several draft boards, mostly Draft Network, but I’m sure there will be a lot of change leading up to the draft (as always).

With the 16^th pick in the NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons select A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa.

If Delpit falls this far, you can pencil him in, but he never did in the mocks I simulated while Epenesa consistently made it to pick 16. In a lot of ways, this could be an even better pick. Epenesa is a monster of a man, a man forced to play in a run-defense-first scheme who still managed to get a ton of pressure on the QB. He has unteachable physical gifts and there are few players better to learn from in a DT/DE role than Calais Campbell. This is arguably not our position of greatest need, but it’s easily the best value given how the draft is likely to fall.

With the 47^th pick in the NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons select Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford.

Being a former wide receiver should resonate with this staff, and Adebo is only getting better. Dude is tall and, unsurprisingly, plays the ball like a WR. Dude has great hips to drive on the ball and is hyper competitive, whether that be tackling in space or contesting the ball. Having Tramon Williams should help with the nuances in his game, as should our investment in this coaching staff.

With the 59^th pick in the NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons select JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State.

Dobbins is the kind of well rounded, every down running back this team desperately needs. He’s got tremendous contact balance, power, and great hands. He shows impressive agility and athleticism given his size too, and he pass blocks better than even a lot of NFL players (looking at you, Freeman). I think someone like Dobbins compares favorably to other RBs Koetter used effectively – MJD, Muscle Hamster – and after using this kind of draft capital, I think DK would be eager to prove he can run the ball well. It’s an investment based on both the team’s needs and DK’s ego.

With the 78^th pick in the NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons select Hunter Bryant, TE, Washington.

Not a need? Maybe, but Bryant can be a special player, and two TE sets would improve this team’s unpredictability drastically. DK clearly likes running two TE sets, as seen in TB, and Bryant can compete with Graham for that #2 TE spot. This also gives us flexibility if one of the two goes down so that our two TE sets don’t have to completely fall off the map. Bryant is so dangerous in open space, and while he has work to do as a blocker, he’s plenty willing. He’s a similar player to George Kittle, and I don’t say that lightly.

With the 85^th pick in the NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons select Antoine Winfield Jr, S, Minnesota.

Possibly my #2 safety in the draft behind Delpit, though McKinney is likely 2A in that conversation. Winfield is a playmaker and a fiery leader, and with how late he’s projected to go, there’s no player in this range more capable of transforming a defense. Winfield does have off-field concerns that make me somewhat hesitant, but at this point in the draft, that’s a risk worth taking.

With the 117^th pick in the NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons select Richard LeCounte III, S, Georgia.

Excuse the garbage highlights – it’s still early in the draft season. UGA homers will likely claim LeCounte will never last this long, but I’m just going based off what I see on current draft boards. Two safeties back to back might seem odd, but safety is a need, even with Allen looking good at SS and Kazee doing alright at FS. Honestly, it’s easy to argue we should have addressed safety even more in the draft or FA, but I don’t see good value available after Delpit (McKinney keeps going late round 1) and FA was pretty sparse. LeCounte is a talented dude who should play his way into plenty of playing time on ST early and could even snipe away a starting role eventually.

With the 139^th pick in the NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons select Jordyn Brooks, LB, Texas Tech.

When you talk about sudden athletes in this LB class, after Simmons (since Moses didn’t declare) I don’t think there’s a more sudden guy than Brooks. Brooks might slip this far due to his small school, but the guy has sky high potential as a blitzing LB and all the athletic traits to do well in coverage. His biggest issue is his struggles with disengaging against blockers, but that was a critique of Debo too. He tackles well, and he tackles hard. He needs to be a Dirty Bird.

With the 205^th pick in the NFL draft, the Atlanta Falcons select A.J. Dillon, RB, Boston College.

Say hello to the 2^nd A.J. of the draft and your Falcons fullback of the future. Dillon is a 250 lb. power back with a capital P, a dude who loves to hit and brings the weight behind his pads to do so often. He doesn’t fall forward, he powers forward. He’s a lot faster than you might expect, too. It’d be nice having a fullback who can actually run if need be, and learning under Sherman is about as good as it gets for a prep course.

Final Roster (before cuts in TC):

QB: Matt Ryan, Kurt Benkert, Daniel Etling

RB: J.K. Dobbins, Ito Smith, Quadree Ollison, Kenjon Barner

FB: Anthony Sherman, A.J. Dillon

WR: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus, Christian Blake, Devin Gray

TE: Austin Hooper, Hunter Bryant, Jaeden Graham, Alex Gray

OT: Jake Matthews, Kaleb McGary, Matt Gono, Lukayus McNeil

OG: Chris Lindstrom, Stefen Wisniewski, Jamon Brown

OC: Ted Karras, Wes Schweitzer

DE: Calais Campbell, Takk McKinley, A.J. Epenesa, Adrian Clayborn, Bruce Irvin, John Cominsky, Steven Means, Austin Larkin

DT: Grady Jarrett, Tyeler Davison, Deadrin Senat, Jacob Tuoti-Mariner

(keep in mind, a lot of the DEs I listed play DT too)

LB: Deion Jones, Kiko Alonso, Foyesade Oloukon, Haason Reddick, Jordyn Brooks

CB: Tramon Williams, Isaiah Oliver, Kendall Sheffield, Paulson Adebo, Akeem King, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, Jordan Miller, Jamar Taylor

S: Ricardo Allen, Damontae Kazee, Antoine Winfield Jr., Richard LeCounte III, Sharrod Neasman

K: Younghoe Koo

P: Ryan Allen

LS: Josh Harris

Red = additions
Blue = re-signed

Thoughts/feedback? It’s a super rough draft and I know things are likely to change, it’s all speculative, there are spots with less depth etc. I seriously considered going QB early-ish in the draft, but the class isn’t that strong and the value was never there.

[Vandy]

One of the better proposed falcon offseasons I’ve seen yet. Especially like the thought of bringing Reddick here. 

I go back and forth on freeman too. That’s a huge cap hit to let him walk plus as you know the OL blocking and play calling was horrific last year. I did see some glimpses of the same free when he found a crease to go through. Would love to see a 1-2 punch of freeman + Dobbins for one year. I believe we’re a playoff team again if Koetter gets his head out of his *** and runs the ball.

Overall, Great ‘outside-the-box’ thinking, FYM.

[NWFALCON]

Looks good. What’s your opinion on that Michigan State DL Willekes?

Spain was a cheap and very good guard signing for Buffalo. He will be available but he’s probably going to command a big contract. TD dropped the ball on that.  

[TheDirtyWordII]

Very solid and complete effort.  Few points of contention.

1) I’m not a Hooper guy so paying him doesn’t appeal to me.  When I think that Russell Gage put up 38/344/1 in the final 8 games, I think there is opportunity to shape a passing attack around a Julio/Ridley/Gage trio and figure out speciality roles without committing such a large sum.

2) Do we need to commit long term deals to Allen/Koo?  There’s probably a few players you’ve signed to longer term deals that would probably settle for 1 year deals.  And if the reason we’re signing it longer term deals is to ease up on our 2020 cap, I’d prefer to start taking that medicine now rather than finding ourselves in the same situation we find ourselves in with Carpenter/Brown.

3) Losing Mack will hurt...didn’t watch much of NE, but I suspect that if Karras played as well as you’ve indicated, he’ll cost more than what you’ve allotted.

I like the Trufant deal...I’d consider a Day 2 pick a real good haul.

 

 

[FalconsIn2012]

Very clever offseason.  Adding heavily to the secondary gives us great versatility Week to Week.  People don’t realize the a Patriots has 10 players in their secondary earn over $1,000,000 this year.  
 

Not sure Quinn goes into next year without Mack snapping to Ryan.  That’s a huge risk I don’t see them taking despite the CAP savings
 

I love picks 3, 5,6,7,8.  AJ I am lukewarm on quite honestly.  Would prefer a playmaker regardless of position.  Like you said, Delpit is ideal

[thanat0s]

Good effort here.

 

I like the Campbell signing, though I actually want Suh with that money, I wouldn’t cry over CC as the alternative. We agree this is an area next to Grady that needs a mammoth vet upgrade. 

Epinesa is showing up a lot in the simulators, and I’ve had him plenty, but I’m still not convinced he’s not a top ten pick when it’s said and done.  Gross-Matos isn’t a terrible alternative at this point, but my BPA bent is telling me the value is in either trading back to draft him, which I might prefer, or Biadasz/Swift as of today. 

The lesser FAs and cuts I’m fine with. I’d love Hoop back, but franchising is likely going to be at $11m, so if they can get a $7m first year in a deal, it’s more palatable. Otherwise, I’m looking for next year’s Tamme type guy.

I’m drafting Hot Rod Blankenship at some point in this draft if I’m Atlanta, so his rookie deal will save us a bit on Koo.

I like LeCounte, Brooks and Winfield. I don’t like any of the TEs in this class so far, and I absolutely wouldn’t touch Dobbins. He and Harris at Alabama aren’t very athletic or dynamic at all, imo. I’d rather use Hill/Smith, to be honest. 

Not worth much, but those are my thoughts, lol. 

 

[FalconsIn2012]

5 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

Good effort here.

 

I like the Campbell signing, though I actually want Suh with that money, I wouldn’t cry over CC as the alternative. We agree this is an area next to Grady that needs a mammoth vet upgrade. 

Epinesa is showing up a lot in the simulators, and I’ve had him plenty, but I’m still not convinced he’s not a top ten pick when it’s said and done.  Gross-Matos isn’t a terrible alternative at this point, but my BPA bent is telling me the value is in either trading back to draft him, which I might prefer, or Biadasz/Swift as of today. 

The lesser FAs and cuts I’m fine with. I’d love Hoop back, but franchising is likely going to be at $11m, so if they can get a $7m first year in a deal, it’s more palatable. Otherwise, I’m looking for next year’s Tamme type guy.

I’m drafting Hot Rod Blankenship at some point in this draft if I’m Atlanta, so his rookie deal will save us a bit on Koo.

I like LeCounte, Brooks and Winfield. I don’t like any of the TEs in this class so far, and I absolutely wouldn’t touch Dobbins. He and Harris at Alabama aren’t very athletic or dynamic at all, imo. I’d rather use Hill/Smith, to be honest. 

Not worth much, but those are my thoughts, lol. 

 

Agree with everything except Dobbins.  He is an athletic freak

J.K. Dobbins' High School Workout Numbers are Mind-Blowing

By Brandon Hall

 

J.K. Dobbins is a problem.

The Ohio State junior running back is on pace to exceed 1,000 rushing yards for the third consecutive season, a feat only the great Archie Griffin has previously accomplished for the scarlet and gray.

Dobbins looked unstoppable during the Buckeyes' recent victory over Cincinnati, racking up 141 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the first half alone.

 

Coming out of La Grange High School (Texas), Dobbins was one of the most athletic recruits in the nation.

In fact, Dobbins had the highest SPARQ score of any recruit in his class:

 

Dobbins earned that honor thanks to a 4.44 40-Yard Dash, a 4.09 20-Yard Shuttle and a ridiculous 43.1-inch Vertical Jump. Do you know how insane it is for a high school player to jump 43 inches in the Vertical?

Dating back to 2006, there's been just one running back at the NFL Combine who hit the 43-inch mark (

[Francis York Morgan]

9 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Very solid and complete effort.  Few points of contention.

1) I’m not a Hooper guy so paying him doesn’t appeal to me.  When I think that Russell Gage put up 38/344/1 in the final 8 games, I think there is opportunity to shape a passing attack around a Julio/Ridley/Gage trio and figure out speciality roles without committing such a large sum.

2) Do we need to commit long term deals to Allen/Koo?  There’s probably a few players you’ve signed to longer term deals that would probably settle for 1 year deals.  And if the reason we’re signing it longer term deals is to ease up on our 2020 cap, I’d prefer to start taking that medicine now rather than finding ourselves in the same situation we find ourselves in with Carpenter/Brown.

3) Losing Mack will hurt...didn’t watch much of NE, but I suspect that if he played as well as you’ve indicated, he’ll cost more than what you’ve allotted.

I like the Trufant deal...I’d consider a Day 2 pick a real good haul.

1) I totally get you on Hooper - just think his connection with Ryan is a big deal and DK looks an awful lot better with a focus on the TE attack. I could swing either way on him though.

2) You're right about not committing long term deals - I still would like for us to do so with Allen, since I think he's proven himself at this point both in NE and with us, but I'd be down for a 1 year deal with Koo. 

3) Losing Mack does hurt. Tbh, you could lose Hooper and keep Mack on this offseason for essentially the same thing, and I don't know which I'd prefer. Mack has definitely been slipping up though...feel like he's mostly getting by on his name at this point. Some of that could be injury. I just feel like the writing is on the wall so I tried to account for it. Karras played well, but I'm hoping the turmoil in the OL around him makes him cost less. We'll see, you know? Thought Spain would get a lot more last year too.

9 hours ago, NWFALCON said:

Looks good. What’s your opinion on that Michigan State DL Willekes?

Spain was a cheap and very good guard signing for Buffalo. He will be available but he’s probably going to command a big contract. TD dropped the ball on that.  

I like Spain a lot and actually had him written in, but after his season this year, I doubt he's available for less than 6-8 mil per year. Guess we'll see. And I like Willekes overall. Nowhere near as much as I like Epenesa, and DE is crowded after this offseason, but I like what I've seen.

9 hours ago, Vandy said:

One of the better proposed falcon offseasons I’ve seen yet. Especially like the thought of bringing Reddick here. 

Great ‘outside-the-box’ thinking, FYM.

Thanks man! Really think Reddick has been underutilized in AZ, he could be a sneaky good trade. Here's hoping.

9 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Very clever offseason.  Adding heavily to the secondary gives us great versatility Week to Week.  People don’t realize the a Patriots has 10 players in their secondary earn over $1,000,000 this year.  

I love picks 3, 5,6,7,8.  AJ I am lukewarm on quite honestly.  Would prefer a playmaker regardless of position.  Like you said, Delpit is ideal

Thanks! Definitely most worried about safety, in spite of the secondary additions. If Delpit somehow lasts until pick 16, I would LOVE for us to take him. Just think he's likely either a top 10 pick or taken just before us, and I hate to think that we'll trade up again when we finally have some good draft capital. If it took a 3rd rounder to nab him, I'd be down.

Epenesa is better than a lot of people think btw. Think he could be a really similar player to Arik Armstead. Way more interested in him if we land Calais Campbell.

9 hours ago, thanat0s said:

Good effort here.

I like the Campbell signing, though I actually want Suh with that money, I wouldn’t cry over CC as the alternative. We agree this is an area next to Grady that needs a mammoth vet upgrade. 

Epinesa is showing up a lot in the simulators, and I’ve had him plenty, but I’m still not convinced he’s not a top ten pick when it’s said and done.  Gross-Matos isn’t a terrible alternative at this point, but my BPA bent is telling me the value is in either trading back to draft him, which I might prefer, or Biadasz/Swift as of today. 

The lesser FAs and cuts I’m fine with. I’d love Hoop back, but franchising is likely going to be at $11m, so if they can get a $7m first year in a deal, it’s more palatable. Otherwise, I’m looking for next year’s Tamme type guy.

I’m drafting Hot Rod Blankenship at some point in this draft if I’m Atlanta, so his rookie deal will save us a bit on Koo.

I like LeCounte, Brooks and Winfield. I don’t like any of the TEs in this class so far, and I absolutely wouldn’t touch Dobbins. He and Harris at Alabama aren’t very athletic or dynamic at all, imo. I’d rather use Hill/Smith, to be honest. 

Not worth much, but those are my thoughts, lol. 

I'd be super down for Suh. I like that getting CC (who's almost certain to be cut) doesn't effect our comp picks, but Suh may very well be cheaper, albeit less versatile. I get you on Epenesa maybe going earlier, but who knows with how much changes between now and April? I certainly don't. 

I really like some of the TEs this class as receiving options. Bryant is a super interesting guy. Surprised that you don't like Dobbins, especially since I think he's way more athletic than he gets credit for. I think people see that he's at Ohio State and assume a lot regarding his athleticism, but he's so well rounded and has such good vision that I really think he'd thrive here. Just fits that Koetter mold of RBs that he actually uses...lol.

[Geneaut]

One minor nitpick ... I don't think we have a 6th round pick this season to trade for Reddick.

[Francis York Morgan]

4 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

One minor nitpick ... I don't think we have a 6th round pick this season to trade for Reddick.

Shoot, the Cyprien trade. You're right. Hmm...guess you could slot in the 7th rounder instead, but who knows if they'd go for it. That totally slipped my mind. Ah well, like I said - a very rough draft. 

[Geneaut]

Just now, Francis York Morgan said:

Shoot, the Cyprien trade. You're right. Hmm...guess you could slot in the 7th rounder instead, bu who knows if they'd go for it. That totally slipped my mind. Ah well, like I said - a very rough draft. 

It's good work. Lot's of stuff to look for in these kinds of posts

[stizz]

Like your draft except for Epenensa. Dude is very stiff and lacks the athleticism I believe to defeat tackles in the NFL. I think he'd be more for the inside to pair with Jarrett. 

[The Don™]

Nice writeup...but I have some comments and disagreements

Neal - I'm not sure about this but does declining Keanu's option make him an UFA? If so, he could be brought back for relatively cheap. If not, I think his option gets picked up. He's Quinn first round draft pick and embodies everything Quinn wants in a player. He won't be shown the door that easily IMO.

Mack - I am not going to be surprised if he has offseason surgery to correct his ailment. I don't think he was 100%. I also don't think the jersey swap means he's gone. It could mean useless Wes is gone and he wants a momento from one of the better centers this past decade.

Trufant - I could see TD trying to aggressively trade him to CB hungry team and succeeding. He was playing well before his injury.

Keith Smith - Don't agree here. He was one of our best ST players and good for his limited snaps on offense. Cheap resigning.

Hooper - I understand the logic behind the resigning but I have a feeling we're gonna low ball him and he's going to bail to the open market. 

Koo - TD and Quinn were very noncommittal towards him during the press conference. I think they'll have an actual open competition with maybe Koo, another cheap FA and a draft pick and roll with the best man. At least that's what I think they should do. Handing the job to Giorgio was a mistake and I hope they learned from it.

[kiwifalcon]

I’d like the team to all in on pass rushers this year.

If I’m honest I like the FAs part better than the draft but it’s here nor there like you mention.

But my favourite is the coaching side of it.Anyone whose coached under Rod Marinelli I’m in on for our dline.He always seems to have aggressive defensive line players.

Oline I’m with that move aswell Morgan’s had his time here and has been underwhelming the last 2 seasons.

[MSalmon]

@Francis York Morgan, I love it! Reddick is a great low risk trade. I Lao love Dillon as a combo FB/Rb

great work

[Vandy]

12 minutes ago, stizz said:

Like your draft except for Epenensa. Dude is very stiff and lacks the athleticism I believe to defeat tackles in the NFL. I think he'd be more for the inside to pair with Jarrett. 

That was the knock on JJ Watt and Michael Bennett coming out of college too. 

[Vandy]

26 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

One minor nitpick ... I don't think we have a 6th round pick this season to trade for Reddick.

 

23 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Shoot, the Cyprien trade. You're right. Hmm...guess you could slot in the 7th rounder instead, but who knows if they'd go for it. That totally slipped my mind. Ah well, like I said - a very rough draft. 

Or throw in either carp and/or brown. 

[1989Fan]

Dobbins not athletic...

Look, I despise OSU, like my Saints of college football, but would love this pick. The guy has low mileage on him and is a great back. He set their all time rushing record, and played more that 2-3 Qs of a game like 3 times this year.

[AllStarHandyMan]

1 hour ago, thanat0s said:

Good effort here.

 

I like the Campbell signing, though I actually want Suh with that money, I wouldn’t cry over CC as the alternative. We agree this is an area next to Grady that needs a mammoth vet upgrade. 

Epinesa is showing up a lot in the simulators, and I’ve had him plenty, but I’m still not convinced he’s not a top ten pick when it’s said and done.  Gross-Matos isn’t a terrible alternative at this point, but my BPA bent is telling me the value is in either trading back to draft him, which I might prefer, or Biadasz/Swift as of today. 

The lesser FAs and cuts I’m fine with. I’d love Hoop back, but franchising is likely going to be at $11m, so if they can get a $7m first year in a deal, it’s more palatable. Otherwise, I’m looking for next year’s Tamme type guy.

I’m drafting Hot Rod Blankenship at some point in this draft if I’m Atlanta, so his rookie deal will save us a bit on Koo.

I like LeCounte, Brooks and Winfield. I don’t like any of the TEs in this class so far, and I absolutely wouldn’t touch Dobbins. He and Harris at Alabama aren’t very athletic or dynamic at all, imo. I’d rather use Hill/Smith, to be honest. 

Not worth much, but those are my thoughts, lol. 

 

TE Brycen Hopkins he is on my want list. He has the speed and looks to be able to make cuts in his routes really good! 

[PokerSteve]

I like virtually every choice you made, coaches and players. Would love to get Callahan and Marinelli on our coaching staff!

Think your Trufant resolution is brilliant. Hope it comes to fruition. As  everybody knows, I'm personally not sold on going overboard to resign Hooper. Not that great of a blocker, no real speed, not a player who does anything from a receiving or route-running aspect that makes him irreplaceable. imo.

Also down with cutting Stocker, Brillo, Mack, Schaub and Neal. Beasley and Campbell, yep. Free just too much money and doubts about what he will give you going forward. I think Bailey is a solid player, but probably replaceable for cheaper contract. Crawford was just there, not much impact. Bosher got to go.

Not sure about Epenesa, people seem to love him or hate him. He would definitely be an exciting pick for those of us starving for more from the DE spot. Definitely like the other draft picks well enough to suspect we have no chance of seeing them become Falcons! lol. Over all, a superb job!

 

[A-TowN.-]

I like it man. Agree with all of the cuts and re-signings outside of Neal and Mack. 

For the draft, I especially love the Winfield Jr. and Dobbins picks. Bryant is a stud as well.

[Geaux_Falcons]

My thoughts:

I don't see anyone willing to give us good compensation to take on Tru and his cap hits. Could be stuck on this one. I would be okay with the move itself, and we would have to get a vet CB to replace his presence, but overall we do save money.

Reddick would be a sneaky off-season move that could pay big dividends. I could live with a 5th to make it happen. Conditional 4th wouldn't be a stretch either.

As far as cuts, I'm okay with all of them. Although I would try to restructure and extend Mack. I'm just not comfortable replacing him unless we secure someone who can make a difference year 1 at center. It's too important of a position. If he's cut, fine, but that position becomes a concern until shown it's not.

Smith provides value on ST's outside of being a decent FB. I think you're wrong on that one. I would keep him actually. 

If you're reading something that says Keanu can be rescinded, then cool, but in that case, I'm still going to try and bring him back to play a hybrid role at LB.

Free agency, I thought it looked solid. If Tru is trade, and Mack cut, the follow ups could work out. Campbell makes sense, but I just wouldn't mind going after Arik Armstead. Alonso is another under the radar kind of move that could be big for us.

I can't see a lot of those guys in the draft dropping that far. Epenesa is one of my top 5 prospects for our draft slot. After him, I just don't see the others available at those slots. The value would be off the charts if they were though. I say hold off until the combine for a complete mock.

Overall, this looks like a solid off-season. Not a lot to nit pick here. All probably hinges on each move happening though.

[Beef]

Great effort and pretty good mock.

Few things though...

LeCounte already stated he was returning to UGA for his senior season.

We don't have a 6th round pick.

Etienne is better than Dobbins and it's very doubtful either will make it to pick 59.  We will likely have to take one at 47 and fall back on Harris as the 3rd option.

[thanat0s]

1 hour ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Agree with everything except Dobbins.  He is an athletic freak

J.K. Dobbins' High School Workout Numbers are Mind-Blowing

By Brandon Hall

 

J.K. Dobbins is a problem.

The Ohio State junior running back is on pace to exceed 1,000 rushing yards for the third consecutive season, a feat only the great Archie Griffin has previously accomplished for the scarlet and gray.

Dobbins looked unstoppable during the Buckeyes' recent victory over Cincinnati, racking up 141 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the first half alone.

 

Coming out of La Grange High School (Texas), Dobbins was one of the most athletic recruits in the nation.

In fact, Dobbins had the highest SPARQ score of any recruit in his class:

 

Dobbins earned that honor thanks to a 4.44 40-Yard Dash, a 4.09 20-Yard Shuttle and a ridiculous 43.1-inch Vertical Jump. Do you know how insane it is for a high school player to jump 43 inches in the Vertical?

Dating back to 2006, there's been just one running back at the NFL Combine who hit the 43-inch mark (

Keith Marshall is who I compare him to. Lots of measurable, but it didn’t translate to being a dynamic playmaker. It sure doesn’t show on the field with Dobbins, either. I’ll trust my eyes over numbers. 

[thanat0s]

1 hour ago, Francis York Morgan said:

 

Thanks! Definitely most worried about safety, in spite of the secondary additions. If Delpit somehow lasts until pick 16, I would LOVE for us to take him. Just think he's likely either a top 10 pick or taken just before us, and I hate to think that we'll trade up again when we finally have some good draft capital. If it took a 3rd rounder to nab him, I'd be down.

Epenesa is better than a lot of people think btw. Think he could be a really similar player to DeForest Buckner. Way more interested in him if we land Calais Campbell.

I'd be super down for Suh. I like that getting CC (who's almost certain to be cut) doesn't effect our comp picks, but Suh may very well be cheaper, albeit less versatile. I get you on Epenesa maybe going earlier, but who knows with how much changes between now and April? I certainly don't. 

I really like some of the TEs this class as receiving options. Bryant is a super interesting guy. Surprised that you don't like Dobbins, especially since I think he's way more athletic than he gets credit for. I think people see that he's at Ohio State and assume a lot regarding his athleticism, but he's so well rounded and has such good vision that I really think he'd thrive here. Just fits that Koetter mold of RBs that he actually uses...lol.

I keep reading how athletic Dobbins is, but I just don’t see it when I watch. I could be swayed along the way, I’m sure. It’s just January 2nd after all, lol. 

If AJ drops to 16, it’ll be good value. The combine and pro days could turn a lot of things upside down, especially if these QBs shine. The more of them that go early, the better!