Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 This is a hotly debated topic, but I wanted to give my reasoning behind why I would never take a running back in the first round of the draft. Sorry for it being a long post, but I wanted to give you logic vs just it being a hot take. 1) It is one of the most replaceable / least valuable positions in football. Analytics tell us this by measuring WAR (wins above replacement), that RB is the most replaceable. The NFL tells us this by the contracts they are willing to pay them that it is the least valuable. Let's say this year in free agency we wanted to sign a player top 10 at their position. This is what the #10 salary is for each position this year. QB $27,000,000 EDGE $16,500,000 WR $15,100,000 OT $13,000,000 CB $12,500,000 IDL $12,333,333 LB $10,500,000 OG $10,000,000 C $9,400,000 S $9,000,000 TE $7,450,001 RB $5,203,333 The league itself is telling us the RB is the least valuable position.2) Because of this, you get the least return on your investment when drafting a RB in the first round. Because of the rookie wage scale we will pay our 16th overall pick roughly 13.6mil over four years, averaging 3.4mil per year. With our cap issues, we need to get the biggest return on our investment possible. In other words, we need to shop smart/cheap in free agency and get the most out of this draft that we can. Go back to the signing a Top 10 Player at their position example. If we draft a player at that position and they end up being a stud, below is the savings we would get vs paying for a Top 10 Player in Free Agency at the same position. QB $23,600,000 EDGE $13,100,000 WR $11,700,000 OT $9,600,000 CB $9,100,000 IDL $8,933,333 LB $7,100,000 OG $6,600,000 C $6,000,000 S $5,600,000 TE $4,050,001 RB $1,803,333 Obviously we aren't going to sign a QB to get that savings, but drafting a RB would be the worst use of that pick possible from a cap stand point, where if we landed a pass rusher or CB we would save a ton of money to be invested elsewhere. Example One: Sign a stud pass rusher for 16.5mil in free agency and draft a RB @ 16. We spend roughly 20mil. Example Two: Draft edge @ 16 and sign a top 10 back in free agency. We spend roughly 8.6mil. We could sign a top 10 CB with that remaining money and still be spending less than example one. Obviously, this is all "in theory", but you get the point...we need to be smart of what position we draft based off of value, not need.3) The highest paid running backs do not equate to wins. Of the top five highest paid players at their positions, here are how many of them are in the playoffs this year. QB 3 S 3 TE 3 IDL 2 WR 2 C 2 OT 1 EDGE 1 CB 1 OG 1 LB 1 RB 04) Running backs taken top 25 overall in the draft do not equate to wins. Great backs come from all throughout the draft, some really great ones have come early in the draft as well, there is no denying that. The problem is that even in their best performances this year, their team's still lost. Below are all the running backs taken in the top 25 picks for the last 10 years & their team’s 2019 record. 2019 - Josh Jacobs: 24th pick, 7-9 2018 - Saquon Barkley: 2nd pick, 4-12 2017 - Leonard Fournette: 4th pick, 6-10 2017 - Christian McCaffrey: 8th pick, 5-11 2016 - Ezekiel Elliot: 4th pick, 8-8 2015 - Todd Gurley: 10th pick, 9-7 2015 - Melvin Gordon: 15th pick, 5-112014 - None Taken 2013 - None Taken 2012 - Trent Richardson: 3rd pick, Retired2011 - None Taken 2010 - C.J. Spiller: 9th, Retired 2010 - Ryan Mathews: 12th, Retired Combined record of 44-68 (.390), one winning record, zero teams made the playoffs, and 2-3 coaches fired. This is the only position this holds true in...and it isn't close. If we traded back towards pick 30 or so and we took a back, I could live with it...but ideally not until we get to New England's pick we have at the end of the 2nd. 5) The running back position has the shortest lifespan of any other position. Go back to the top 25 picks, 30% of those players already retired. Below is the number of players over 30 years old in the league this year by position. OT 48 QB 32 EDGE 28 IDL 28 CB 23 OG 22 WR 21 S 21 TE 20 LB 17 C 12 RB 11 When you invest a first round pick, your goal isn't to have a player be on your team for 4-5 years, it's to be on your team for the next 10-15. We have seen time and time again RBs not live up to their second contract...the position takes a beating and bodies just don't hold up long enough. If a team spends a first round pick on a RB, they are going to justify that by over working that back and run them into the ground more often than not only making their lifespan shorter. For the most part, none of those guys are RBBC, because teams want to get the most out of their investment. We can all poke holes in the data, give excuses as to why it isn't relevant or why there are reasons for any of it...fact of the matter is this debate has been going on for a long time, NFL teams are going more and more that way, fans seem to be the more reluctant ones in this debate (maybe it's skewed by Fantasy Football?). tl;dr - Running back is the least valuable, most replaceable position in football, it's a bad use of your draft capital in round one and doesn't best utilize cap space because of the rookie wage scale, they do not equate to wins and they have the shortest life span of any position...which is why I would never draft a RB in the first round. JDaveG, ATLFalcons11, PapaJoe and 17 others 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalconFanSince1969 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Agree. 2nd or 3rd is the sweet spot. Boise Falcon Fan, Ergo Proxy, Rings and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiwifalcon Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 What say he’s the best talent in the draft does this put the BPA argument to bed? Rings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_666 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Is this really a hotly debated topic? I've never heard anyone say that drafting a RB in first round is a smart move. vitaman, Drunken Minotaur Zebra and No Talent *** Clown 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said: What say he’s the best talent in the draft does this put the BPA argument to bed? A lot of people think BPA = Best Talent, and that's not the case. Talent + College Production + Senior Bowl Performance (if applicable) + Combine Performance + Pro Day Performance + Interviews + Injury History + Off the Field Issues + Positional Value = BPA Even if you draft for need all of those things go into it as well, except you replace positional value with need. Falcanuck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, ATL_666 said: Is this really a hotly debated topic? I've never heard anyone say that drafting a RB in first round is a smart move. Go look at almost any topic in the draft section of these boards...you will find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiwifalcon Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Rings said: A lot of people think BPA = Best Talent, and that's not the case. Talent + College Production + Combine Performance + Interviews + Injury History + Off the Field Issues + Positional Value = BPA Even if you draft for need all of those things go into it as well, except you replace positional value with need. Adrian Peterson type talent if he was there at 16 passes all of what you mention do you take him? Vandy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said: Adrian Peterson type talent if he was there at 16 passes all of what you mention do you take him? Honestly, no. There is no denying he is a stupid talent and one of the best to ever play from a rushing stand point, but even saying that he made it to the playoffs 5 times and they were 1-4 in those games. He is also the anomaly from the ACL bounce back to the longevity. The chances on hitting on him again are slim to none. You could argue Saquon is a better all around back so far because he is a better receiver out of the back field, and in two years they haven't seen enough of a lift no matter how spectacular he is. Josh Jacobs had a great year, McCaffrey, Chubb...all watching the games from home like you and I this Sunday. I also don't think lining up Barkley and Peterson in our backfield would matter because of Dirk and his inability to run. Why invest in the 16th overall pick just to have one of the lowest rushing rates in the league? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis York Morgan Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I agree overall, but I do think RB is valuable, especially a good one on a rookie contract. That's where practically all RBs will be at their best and it's for sure where they'll be cheapest. Rings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Francis York Morgan said: I agree overall, but I do think RB is valuable, especially a good one on a rookie contract. That's where practically all RBs will be at their best and it's for sure where they'll be cheapest. I agree, I'm not saying don't draft a RB at all, just do it late in round 2 - round 4. Lethal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalconsIn2012 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I think Josh Jacobs was a smart pick by the Raiders. Just depends on where in the 1st round and what your team needs are citsalp, Drew4719 and Rings 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, FalconsIn2012 said: I think Josh Jacobs was a smart pick by the Raiders. Just depends on where in the 1st round and what your team needs are Was also their third pick in the draft. citsalp, FalconsIn2012 and Drew4719 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiwifalcon Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, Rings said: Honestly, no. There is no denying he is a stupid talent and one of the best to ever play from a rushing stand point, but even saying that he made it to the playoffs 5 times and they were 1-4 in those games. He is also the anomaly from the ACL bounce back to the longevity. The chances on hitting on him again are slim to none. You could argue Saquon is a better all around back so far because he is a better receiver out of the back field, and in two years they haven't seen enough of a lift no matter how spectacular he is. Josh Jacobs had a great year, McCaffrey, Chubb...all watching the games from home like you and I this Sunday. I also don't think lining up Barkley and Peterson in our backfield would matter because of Dirk and his inability to run. Why invest in the 16th overall pick just to have one of the lowest rushing rates in the league? Funny you should mention DK if he had say a Julio Jones type of talent at RB that would force his hand he’d have to use him that’s if he wanted to keep his job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, kiwifalcon said: Funny you should mention DK if he had say a Julio Jones type of talent that would force his hand he’d have to use him that’s if he wanted to keep his job. Even if his attempts went up, I have no faith his efficiency / success rate would. I honestly don't know if Dirk knows how to run the ball in today's NFL. I honestly think if his rushing attempts went up the offense would sadly get worse, because it would just be a waste of a down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AxManBigFan Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Their is not a running back personally worth it to me to take in the first round this year. Now if their were a Reggie bush, Christian McCaffrey, Or Gurley available in the first. I would be down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, AxManBigFan said: Their is not a running back personally worth it to me to take in the first round this year. Now if their were a Reggie bush, Christian McCaffrey, Or Gurley available in the first. I would be down with that. Reggie Bush? citsalp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiwifalcon Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Just now, Rings said: Even if his attempts went up, I have no faith his efficiency / success rate would. I honestly don't know if Dirk knows how to run the ball in today's NFL. He had Jones-Drew in Jax and Doug Martin run the ball in Tampa so I guess that feels like an eternity ago and proved successful.Don’t know why he can’t adapt his attack to suit the talent he has. Rings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalconFanSince1969 Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 I posted this in another thread but, One thing I'd like to point out. Points ALLOWED by the defenses backing Koetter's offenses throughout his career 2007 - 10th 2008 - 21st 2009 - 24th 2010 - 27th 2011 - 11th 2012 - 5th 2013 - 27th 2014 - 27th 2015 - 26th 2016 - 15th 2017 - 22nd 2018 - 31st 2019 - 23rd So on average Koetter has been backed by the 21st ranked defense. Between that and playing with some terrible and broken down backs he hasn't exactly had the deck stacked in his favor to have a strong running game. Falcons Fan MVP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said: He had Jones-Drew in Jax and Doug Martin run the ball in Tampa so I guess that feels like an eternity ago and proved successful.Don’t know why he can’t adapt his attack to suit the talent he has. It just feels like he is still running that same offense and from a decade ago, hasn’t adapted well with the times imo. kiwifalcon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1969 said: I posted this in another thread but, One thing I'd like to point out. Points ALLOWED by the defenses backing Koetter's offenses throughout his career 2007 - 10th 2008 - 21st 2009 - 24th 2010 - 27th 2011 - 11th 2012 - 5th 2013 - 27th 2014 - 27th 2015 - 26th 2016 - 15th 2017 - 22nd 2018 - 31st 2019 - 23rd So on average Koetter has been backed by the 21st ranked defense. Between that and playing with some terrible and broken down backs he hasn't exactly had the deck stacked in his favor to have a strong running game. Valid point. Early in the season he tried to run more early in games and it failed miserably and we punted a bunch and fell behind which forced his hand some. I don’t think he adapts his scheme and play calling to adapt to his team. Freeman does not fit his scheme at all, didn’t as a rookie, didn’t this year. Back half of the season our defense went from 31st to 6th and his balance was 5th worse still over that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quotemokc Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Dobbins in the 2nd please. Francis York Morgan, Drew4719, Vandy and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 1 minute ago, quotemokc said: Dobbins in the 2nd please. I’d be perfectly fine with that, especially if it was New England’s 2nd! Francis York Morgan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falcons_Frenzy Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 Preach on. I think the Falcons take a RB in the 1st two rounds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papachaz Posted January 2, 2020 Share Posted January 2, 2020 wow, I'm amazed I think I'm the 25th post and no body has quoted the OP yet? must be a record, right @ya_boi_j also haven't seen a TLDR post, so I'll just go ahead and claim that one myself Rings and ya_boi_j 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rings Posted January 2, 2020 Author Share Posted January 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, papachaz said: wow, I'm amazed I think I'm the 25th post and no body has quoted the OP yet? must be a record, right @ya_boi_j also haven't seen a TLDR post, so I'll just go ahead and claim that one myself I included a tldr at the end of the op, not sure that counts though haha ya_boi_j 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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