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BuckheadFan
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Need to be strategic about comp picks, since we do not have lots of cap space for big signings.   3rd round pick level is around $13m/ year.

Vic is 28 and a solid pass rusher.   Falcons will not resign- too expensive, people overpay for EDGE.  So, he is gone and will command a decent salary.   in the $14-16m / year range. (Ngakowe to command around $17m https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars/yannick-ngakoue-19018/stats-valuation/  Vic leaving will probably a 3rd round compensation.

Hooper is 25 and will command about $10m per year https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/austin-hooper-19035/market-value/.  I bet he gets a higher amount - too many teams desperate for a good TE, starting with the Patriots.  I do not see the Falcon's keeping him; VERY expensive to franchise (around $11m) and to rich to sign.   Hooper will bring back a  4th round compensatory pick.

Other key FAs who might depart - Crawford, Clayborn, Campbell, Bosher and Schweitzer.     I bet Campbell and Bosher leave and the others remain.   Campbell will get a 6th rounder back, Bosher a 7th.

We will probably sign low end guys for DE and LB.    Should cancel out the two lower comp picks.   Will release Freeman.  Will resign Blidi Wreh-Wilson.  Hope Cominsky steps up.

Should leave us with a 3rd and a 4th as comp picks, with big holes at EDGE, LB and TE and maybe RB.

With limited FA money, that is where we will draft.  Since the holes are so big, expect Dimitroff to trade up from our 3rd round pick, looking for starters - I bet we draft #16 and THREE round 2's to fill holes.   (First pass - Isaish Simmons- LB  in first, and Weaver - EDGE, Cole Kmet TE in 2nd and JK Simmons or Najee Harris - RB  in 2nd.

 

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I’d love to have Hoop back, but if he does get over 10 per,  I’d find a decent vet guy out there and trust Matt to find any TE who gets himself open. He always has. 

As for my one and only FA wish, it’s Suh. I don’t need anybody else besides some serviceable guys on the cheap. He, alone, will make everybody on our defense stronger. 

Hard to tell about the draft right now, but if Simmons or Epinesa drop to us, either satisfies my BPA bent. Otherwise, I take Biadasz or possibly Swift in round one, then hit the edge guys in round 2, where there’s plenty of value.

 

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1 hour ago, BuckheadFan said:

Need to be strategic about comp picks, since we do not have lots of cap space for big signings.   3rd round pick level is around $13m/ year.

Vic is 28 and a solid pass rusher.   Falcons will not resign- too expensive, people overpay for EDGE.  So, he is gone and will command a decent salary.   in the $14-16m / year range. (Ngakowe to command around $17m https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars/yannick-ngakoue-19018/stats-valuation/  Vic leaving will probably a 3rd round compensation.

Hooper is 25 and will command about $10m per year https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/austin-hooper-19035/market-value/.  I bet he gets a higher amount - too many teams desperate for a good TE, starting with the Patriots.  I do not see the Falcon's keeping him; VERY expensive to franchise (around $11m) and to rich to sign.   Hooper will bring back a  4th round compensatory pick.

Other key FAs who might depart - Crawford, Clayborn, Campbell, Bosher and Schweitzer.     I bet Campbell and Bosher leave and the others remain.   Campbell will get a 6th rounder back, Bosher a 7th.

We will probably sign low end guys for DE and LB.    Should cancel out the two lower comp picks.   Will release Freeman.  Will resign Blidi Wreh-Wilson.  Hope Cominsky steps up.

Should leave us with a 3rd and a 4th as comp picks, with big holes at EDGE, LB and TE and maybe RB.

With limited FA money, that is where we will draft.  Since the holes are so big, expect Dimitroff to trade up from our 3rd round pick, looking for starters - I bet we draft #16 and THREE round 2's to fill holes.   (First pass - Isaish Simmons- LB  in first, and Weaver - EDGE, Cole Kmet TE in 2nd and JK Simmons or Najee Harris - RB  in 2nd.

 

I would think the Falcons look to trade Freeman first. Trading him with like a 7th so we get back a little higher pick like maybe a 5th and trade out the contract.

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2 hours ago, Rings said:

No way Vic is getting 14-16mil.  Once again, just like when he was on the trade block, fans will have a rude awakening as to what the rest of the world thinks of Vic vs some Falcons fans think of him.

Trading for him and just signing him in FA are two different things. No one would trade a high pick for him since his contract was up. Someone will probably sign him in the 14M range.

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33 minutes ago, grandcanyonaz said:

Trading for him and just signing him in FA are two different things. No one would trade a high pick for him since his contract was up. Someone will probably sign him in the 14M range.

We couldn't move him for a 6th, the rounds teams take punters and special teams players, because they didn’t want to pay him 13mil.  If he gets more than 10 I’ll be shocked honestly.

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2 hours ago, Rings said:

No way Vic is getting 14-16mil.  Once again, just like when he was on the trade block, fans will have a rude awakening as to what the rest of the world thinks of Vic vs some Falcons fans think of him.

Exactly, in fact, with DQ sticking around, we might see Vic back as a falcon in 9-11m range for four years

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I also would not pay Vic, but others will.    

Mercilus just signed for $54 mil for 4 years ($13.5 average per year).   His sack statistics are about the same as Vic's, with Vic being younger and has slightly better stats.  

Za'Derius Smith (who had a career year this year), had 8.5,  3.5, 1, and 5.5 sacks the four years prior to signing (had 13.5 this year).   Signed 4 years, $66 mil, $16.5 mil average.

We can be disappointed, but that is the market.   If we do not keep him (which would be my choice), brings us back a 3rd in 2021.

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6 hours ago, MSalmon said:

Exactly, in fact, with DQ sticking around, we might see Vic back as a falcon in 9-11m range for four years

that would be too much for me as a fan to take...i'd reemerge after Quinn/TD are out. Vic is to Quinn is like Quinn is to Blank right now...neither can see it (well thats if Quinn re-signs him). i truly hope he isnt that blind...

Edited by sanfranfalcon
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32 minutes ago, BuckheadFan said:

I also would not pay Vic, but others will.    

Mercilus just signed for $54 mil for 4 years ($13.5 average per year).   His sack statistics are about the same as Vic's, with Vic being younger and has slightly better stats.  

Za'Derius Smith (who had a career year this year), had 8.5,  3.5, 1, and 5.5 sacks the four years prior to signing (had 13.5 this year).   Signed 4 years, $66 mil, $16.5 mil average.

We can be disappointed, but that is the market.   If we do not keep him (which would be my choice), brings us back a 3rd in 2021.

Thankfully teams don’t put as much weight into sacks as fans do.  Vic had 450 total snaps, 376 pass rush snaps and had 8 sacks.   That’s 2.1% of his pass rush snaps and 1.7% of his total snaps that resulted in a sack.  I’ve said it many times, fans care about the 8 snaps that ended in sacks, teams care about the 450 snaps and how he performed holistically.  I’d be shocked if Vic makes anything over 8-10 a year.

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Some 3-4 team will fall in love with Vic's potential. I would bet he lands a 10m a year contract. Worse players have gotten more.

 

Here is one thing to consider though....players that are cut from other teams do not count towards the comp pick formula. This is where we should pluck any free agents from. The Jags and Vikes have a lot of high priced defensive linemen and are over their caps as well.

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32 minutes ago, Rings said:

Thankfully teams don’t put as much weight into sacks as fans do.  I’d be shocked if Vic makes anything over 8-10 a year.

phuck!!! i dont even see how he makes that!! $6m/year (actually less) is how i see him. i can see if someone sees him as a LB...VB's skill-set nor his physique make him a above average DE imo. i was looking at his build on Sunday and i see exactly why he really isn't a difference maker...just too small...and that aint his fault...just sayin....

Edited by sanfranfalcon
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Just now, sanfranfalcon said:

phuck!!! i dont even see how he makes that!! $6m/year is how i see him. i can see if someone sees him as a LB...VB's skill-set nor his physique make him a above average DE imo. i was looking at his build on Sunday and he see exactly why he really isn't a difference maker...just too small...and that aint his fault...just sayin....

I’m being generous knowing there are a lot of bad teams out there with way too much cap space that love to over spend on mediocre players.  I wouldn’t pay him more than 4-5, I’d rather pay Clayborn personally.  But I’m sure someone will think they can turn him around and overpay some.  

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5 minutes ago, Rings said:

I’m being generous knowing there are a lot of bad teams out there with way too much cap space that love to over spend on mediocre players.  I wouldn’t pay him more than 4-5, I’d rather pay Clayborn personally.  But I’m sure someone will think they can turn him around and overpay some.  

if someone else pays him then he can make whatever!! i just dont want the Falcons to re-sign him at ANY price. i flat out think he's an under-performer whose salary could create disharmony in the locker room. in fact i already think him getting $12.8 in '19 had that exact effect....

Edited by sanfranfalcon
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