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Matt Ryan & The Deep Ball


Is Ryan a top 6 QB: Deep Throws  

41 members have voted

  1. 1. Put Your Name To It

    • For F***’s Sake, Yes
    • For F***’s Sake, No


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1 hour ago, Rings said:

I don't have 30 or 40+, but here are the completion rates for 20+ and rankings

2019: 48.2% - 10th
2018: 41.9% - 16th
2017: 37.5% - 22nd
2016: 57.1% - 3rd
2015: 48.9% - 4th
2014: 55.9% - 1st
2013: 39.5% - 24th
2012: 43.3% - 8th
2011: 30.0% - 30th
2010: 34.0% - 34th
2009: 30.0% - 34th
2008: 55.2% - 4th
 

So literally middle of the pack if you average out his entire career. Which sounds about right.

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Arm strength is the most overrated skill in the history of quarterbacks. The best QB's of all time (Montana, Brady, Peyton, Brees, etc.) never had "rocket arms." It's all about precision passing and h

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

You mean like this? Last season, Nick Foles ranked second-best (of 38 qualifying quarterbacks) in completion percentage (72%), while Carson Wentz ranked fourth (70%). That means Foles was the mor

8 hours ago, MSalmon said:

You do understand the physics of an arcing ball, right? Literally, the receiver can see the ball better, as opposed to a flatter ball. 

An arching ball is harder to catch than a flat deep speed ball. The higher the ball the harder to locate it. Especially if it gets into the lights. 

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8 hours ago, athell said:

You mean like this?

Last season, Nick Foles ranked second-best (of 38 qualifying quarterbacks) in completion percentage (72%), while Carson Wentz ranked fourth (70%). That means Foles was the more accurate quarterback in 2018, right?

Well, no. Foles posted the lowest average depth of target of all quarterbacks (6.8 yards), while Wentz attempted more difficult throws more frequently (8.1).

Completion percentage typically has far more to do with a quarterback’s usage (timidity) than their efficiency (accuracy). As you can see in the below chart, there’s an exceptionally high correlation between depth of target and completion percentage:

Screen-Shot-2019-04-07-at-8.54.32-PM.png

This is why, when attempting to measure how accurate a quarterback is, I prefer to use a metric called “depth-adjusted completion percentage.”

Mike Clay developed this metric in 2013, which provides more nuance than raw completion percentage.

His formula treats drops the same as completions, while also stripping out spikes, throwaways, batted passes, and instances where a quarterback was hit as he threw. After this adjustment, we contract expected completion percentage (based on the depth of target of each throw) with a quarterback’s actual completion percentage.

By contrasting expected completion percentage (based on the league-wide average in each season) with a quarterback’s actual completion percentage, we can determine which quarterbacks were actually the most accurate.

Here’s all quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts in 2018:

Barrett-21.png

You’ll notice Drew Brees ranks first, and that’s no coincidence. Over the past 10 seasons, Brees has ranked top-six in depth-adjusted completion percentage nine times. He’s also ranked top-three in four of his last five seasons, including first overall in each of the past two seasons. No one else really comes close.

Well, no one except for maybe Matt Ryan. Ryan ranks top-six in seven of his past eight seasons. He ranked fifth-best last year and has four top-three finishes over his past six seasons. Last season Ryan finished second among quarterbacks in total fantasy points, recording the 14th-most total fantasy points by any quarterback in any season all-time. In any other year – and if not for Patrick Mahomes (who ranked third on this chart and first all-time in total fantasy points scored) – he’d be in consideration for overall QB1 draft status. Instead, he’s a massive value by current ADP (QB7).

Well ****. I guess we just some very nervous fans when he heaves it high lmao

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20 hours ago, athell said:

I showed Boise this very article, but he dismissed it outright citing the irrefutable evidence of  "I am right".

did you see he ranked pretty high in the year before as well

This is from the same website as before, but it is 2017 instead of 2018 i believe

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/deep-ball-project

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