FalconsIn2012 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Definition: by deep ball I don’t mean exclusively 50 yard moo balls. I’m talking balls that travel 30 yards in the air. Is Matt Ryan amongst the top 5-6 deep ball passers in the last 6 years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geneaut Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 (edited) Tricky. I think he's far deadlier at 20-30 yards. He's a d@mn Ninja at that range. 30+ errrrrrrrrrrrrr. I mean if I had to guess I'd say he was one of the best 25 yard passers ever. Edited December 31, 2019 by Geneaut FalconsIn2012, Drew4719 and PokerSteve 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalconsIn2012 Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 One point which pertains to Koetter & Ryan moving forward. Between 2015-2018, Ryan threw some of the best moonball’s in the business. Shanny & Sark understood Ryan didn’t have elite arm talent. As such, they would roll the pocket which allowed Ryan to align his footwork and build momentum for accurate 40+ deep shots Geneaut, PokerSteve and Drew4719 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boise Falcon Fan Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I have always thought MR throws the ball quite well. Get over 40 yards and he's terrible. Please note: I don't consider over 20 yds. as a "deep ball". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAFalconFan Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Well, he doesn’t have a Vick or Mahomes or Rodgers arm....if he’s going to launch one, he has to wind up for it, and it’s going to arc, not whistle. That’s an extremely small part of what a QB needs to be able to do, though, it’s just very obvious when it is or isn’t there. What’s worse is watching him when he doesn’t have any confidence in his pocket, or rather, when he is confident that there is no pocket. ChickenBiscuit and PokerSteve 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSalmon Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 20 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said: Definition: by deep ball I don’t mean exclusively 50 yard moo balls. I’m talking balls that travel 30 yards in the air. Is Matt Ryan amongst the top 5-6 deep ball passers in the last 6 years? https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project FalconsIn2012, Rings, Drew4719 and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethal Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said: I have always thought MR throws the ball quite well. Get over 40 yards and he's terrible. Please note: I don't consider over 20 yds. as a "deep ball". Please provide data to backup your claim. Also, the nfl world literally considers a "deep ball" as anything over 20 yards, so it really doesn't matter what you consider a deep ball in your arbitrary candy land world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethal Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, MSalmon said: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project I showed Boise this very article, but he dismissed it outright citing the irrefutable evidence of "I am right". ATLSlobberKnockers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalconsIn2012 Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, MSalmon said: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project This is asking a bit different question. If the definition is 21+ yards it’s no question. But at 30 or more yards, what do people think. I have voted so you know my answer is yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSalmon Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 6 minutes ago, NOVAFalconFan said: Well, he doesn’t have a Vick or Mahomes or Rodgers arm....if he’s going to launch one, he has to wind up for it, and it’s going to arc, not whistle. That’s an extremely small part of what a QB needs to be able to do, though, it’s just very obvious when it is or isn’t there. What’s worse is watching him when he doesn’t have any confidence in his pocket, or rather, when he is confident that there is no pocket. You do understand the physics of an arcing ball, right? Literally, the receiver can see the ball better, as opposed to a flatter ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boise Falcon Fan Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, athell said: Please provide data to backup your claim. Also, the nfl world literally considers a "deep ball" as anything over 20 yards, so it really doesn't matter what you consider a deep ball in your arbitrary candy land world. I don't need to provide anything. I'm not the first person to consider MR not good at throwing the deep ball, and no, 20 yards is not a deep ball, I don't care what you say. Just because some stat geek decided to coin that term for 20 yard passes a few years ago doesn't mean the coaches, fans, FO folks do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSalmon Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, athell said: I showed Boise this very article, but he dismissed it outright citing the irrefutable evidence of "I am right". This helps http://www.nfl.com/videos/good-morning-football/0ap3000000931939/Dan-Orlovsky-Matt-Ryan-throws-the-prettiest-deep-ball-in-the-NFL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSalmon Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Boise Falcon Fan said: I don't need to provide anything. I'm not the first person to consider MR not good at throwing the deep ball, and no, 20 yards is not a deep ball, I don't care what you say. Just because some stat geek decided to coin that term for 20 yard passes a few years ago doesn't mean the coaches, fans, FO folks do. http://www.nfl.com/videos/good-morning-football/0ap3000000931939/Dan-Orlovsky-Matt-Ryan-throws-the-prettiest-deep-ball-in-the-NFL Lethal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FalconsIn2012 Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, athell said: I showed Boise this very article, but he dismissed it outright citing the irrefutable evidence of "I am right". It’s just an opinion. Don’t let it annoy you. But ******, Boise, we are right!!!!! Now you must die jk Lethal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSalmon Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, FalconsIn2012 said: This is asking a bit different question. If the definition is 21+ yards it’s no question. But at 30 or more yards, what do people think. I have voted so you know my answer is yes That data is in there as well. Lethal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethal Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, MSalmon said: That data is in there as well. You mean like this? Last season, Nick Foles ranked second-best (of 38 qualifying quarterbacks) in completion percentage (72%), while Carson Wentz ranked fourth (70%). That means Foles was the more accurate quarterback in 2018, right? Well, no. Foles posted the lowest average depth of target of all quarterbacks (6.8 yards), while Wentz attempted more difficult throws more frequently (8.1). Completion percentage typically has far more to do with a quarterback’s usage (timidity) than their efficiency (accuracy). As you can see in the below chart, there’s an exceptionally high correlation between depth of target and completion percentage: This is why, when attempting to measure how accurate a quarterback is, I prefer to use a metric called “depth-adjusted completion percentage.” Mike Clay developed this metric in 2013, which provides more nuance than raw completion percentage. His formula treats drops the same as completions, while also stripping out spikes, throwaways, batted passes, and instances where a quarterback was hit as he threw. After this adjustment, we contract expected completion percentage (based on the depth of target of each throw) with a quarterback’s actual completion percentage. By contrasting expected completion percentage (based on the league-wide average in each season) with a quarterback’s actual completion percentage, we can determine which quarterbacks were actually the most accurate. Here’s all quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts in 2018: You’ll notice Drew Brees ranks first, and that’s no coincidence. Over the past 10 seasons, Brees has ranked top-six in depth-adjusted completion percentage nine times. He’s also ranked top-three in four of his last five seasons, including first overall in each of the past two seasons. No one else really comes close. Well, no one except for maybe Matt Ryan. Ryan ranks top-six in seven of his past eight seasons. He ranked fifth-best last year and has four top-three finishes over his past six seasons. Last season Ryan finished second among quarterbacks in total fantasy points, recording the 14th-most total fantasy points by any quarterback in any season all-time. In any other year – and if not for Patrick Mahomes (who ranked third on this chart and first all-time in total fantasy points scored) – he’d be in consideration for overall QB1 draft status. Instead, he’s a massive value by current ADP (QB7). Rings, FalconsIn2012, quickzero and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethal Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Boise Falcon Fan said: I don't need to provide anything. I'm not the first person to consider MR not good at throwing the deep ball, and no, 20 yards is not a deep ball, I don't care what you say. Just because some stat geek decided to coin that term for 20 yard passes a few years ago doesn't mean the coaches, fans, FO folks do. Right. Keep on being wrong. Good look. MSalmon and Rings 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethal Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, FalconsIn2012 said: It’s just an opinion. Don’t let it annoy you. But ******, Boise, we are right!!!!! Now you must die jk Ignorance doesn't annoy me. It honestly makes me sad. Rings 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geneaut Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said: I have always thought MR throws the ball quite well. Get over 40 yards and he's terrible. Please note: I don't consider over 20 yds. as a "deep ball". That's where it's hard to judge Matt, and why I said what I said. If 21 yards in the air is your criteria Matt can feed at that distance all day, and probably rank in the highest echelons. He's probably great out to 30-35. Beyond that I think he starts dropping off versus stronger armed QBs. Boise Falcon Fan and PokerSteve 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boise Falcon Fan Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, MSalmon said: http://www.nfl.com/videos/good-morning-football/0ap3000000931939/Dan-Orlovsky-Matt-Ryan-throws-the-prettiest-deep-ball-in-the-NFL So your evidence is that some terrible former NFL QB says he throws a pretty deep ball? Come on. It doesn't mean it is effective. I have watched WAY too many times where he can't hit JJ deep, and I find it maddening. Anyone who says differently just isn't paying attention. Dirtier Bird 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSalmon Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Geneaut said: That's where it's hard to judge Matt, and why I said what I said. If 21 yards in the air is your criteria Matt can feed at that distance all day, and probably rank in the highest echelons. He's probably great out to 30-35. Beyond that I think he starts dropping off versus stronger armed QBs. Not really. Look at this true view http://www.nfl.com/videos/trueview-highlights/0ap3000000977773/See-Matt-Ryan-s-perfect-deep-ball-in-360-True-View Ergo Proxy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis York Morgan Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I think he might be statistically, but not realistically. Stats only say so much Boise Falcon Fan, Dirtier Bird and Charles Wright 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boise Falcon Fan Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, athell said: Right. Keep on being wrong. Good look. 2 minutes ago, athell said: Ignorance doesn't annoy me. It honestly makes me sad. I can see how it would, since you seem like a real nice guy, and a genius to boot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethal Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Boise Falcon Fan said: So your evidence is that some terrible former NFL QB says he throws a pretty deep ball? Come on. It doesn't mean it is effective. I have watched WAY too many times where he can't hit JJ deep, and I find it maddening. Anyone who says differently just isn't paying attention. And your evidence is you saying you are right...and we should give more credence to you why exactly? Ergo Proxy, MSalmon and Rings 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSalmon Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said: So your evidence is that some terrible former NFL QB says he throws a pretty deep ball? Come on. It doesn't mean it is effective. I have watched WAY too many times where he can't hit JJ deep, and I find it maddening. Anyone who says differently just isn't paying attention. Look at the ball. Pay attention. Basic physics is why the strong armed mike Vick sucked at the deep ball. It’s about trajectory, motion and symmetry as much as arm strength. and your evidence is a few misses on a low percentage pass play to start with...ha ha Ergo Proxy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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