Jump to content

Matt Ryan & The Deep Ball


FalconsIn2012

Is Ryan a top 6 QB: Deep Throws  

41 members have voted

  1. 1. Put Your Name To It

    • For F***’s Sake, Yes
    • For F***’s Sake, No


Recommended Posts

One point which pertains to Koetter & Ryan moving forward.  Between 2015-2018, Ryan threw some of the best moonball’s in the business.  Shanny & Sark understood Ryan didn’t have elite arm talent.  As such, they would roll the pocket which allowed Ryan to align his footwork and build momentum for accurate 40+ deep shots

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, he doesn’t have a Vick or Mahomes or Rodgers arm....if he’s going to launch one, he has to wind up for it, and it’s going to arc, not whistle.  That’s an extremely small part of what a QB needs to be able to do, though, it’s just very obvious when it is or isn’t there.  What’s worse is watching him when he doesn’t have any confidence in his pocket, or rather, when he is confident that there is no pocket.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Definition: by deep ball I don’t mean exclusively 50 yard moo balls.  I’m talking balls that travel 30 yards in the air.

Is Matt Ryan amongst the top 5-6 deep ball passers in the last 6 years?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

I have always thought MR throws the ball quite well.  Get over 40 yards and he's terrible. 

Please note: I don't consider over 20 yds. as a "deep ball".  

Please provide data to backup your claim.

Also, the nfl world literally considers a "deep ball" as anything over 20 yards, so it really doesn't matter what you consider a deep ball in your arbitrary candy land world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, NOVAFalconFan said:

Well, he doesn’t have a Vick or Mahomes or Rodgers arm....if he’s going to launch one, he has to wind up for it, and it’s going to arc, not whistle.  That’s an extremely small part of what a QB needs to be able to do, though, it’s just very obvious when it is or isn’t there.  What’s worse is watching him when he doesn’t have any confidence in his pocket, or rather, when he is confident that there is no pocket.

You do understand the physics of an arcing ball, right? Literally, the receiver can see the ball better, as opposed to a flatter ball. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, athell said:

Please provide data to backup your claim.

Also, the nfl world literally considers a "deep ball" as anything over 20 yards, so it really doesn't matter what you consider a deep ball in your arbitrary candy land world.

I don't need to provide anything. I'm not the first person to consider MR not good at throwing the deep ball, and no, 20 yards is not a deep ball, I don't care what you say.  Just because some stat geek decided to coin that term for 20 yard passes a few years ago doesn't mean the coaches, fans, FO folks do. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Boise Falcon Fan said:

I don't need to provide anything. I'm not the first person to consider MR not good at throwing the deep ball, and no, 20 yards is not a deep ball, I don't care what you say.  Just because some stat geek decided to coin that term for 20 yard passes a few years ago doesn't mean the coaches, fans, FO folks do. 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/good-morning-football/0ap3000000931939/Dan-Orlovsky-Matt-Ryan-throws-the-prettiest-deep-ball-in-the-NFL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MSalmon said:

That data is in there as well. 

You mean like this?

Last season, Nick Foles ranked second-best (of 38 qualifying quarterbacks) in completion percentage (72%), while Carson Wentz ranked fourth (70%). That means Foles was the more accurate quarterback in 2018, right?

Well, no. Foles posted the lowest average depth of target of all quarterbacks (6.8 yards), while Wentz attempted more difficult throws more frequently (8.1).

Completion percentage typically has far more to do with a quarterback’s usage (timidity) than their efficiency (accuracy). As you can see in the below chart, there’s an exceptionally high correlation between depth of target and completion percentage:

Screen-Shot-2019-04-07-at-8.54.32-PM.png

This is why, when attempting to measure how accurate a quarterback is, I prefer to use a metric called “depth-adjusted completion percentage.”

Mike Clay developed this metric in 2013, which provides more nuance than raw completion percentage.

His formula treats drops the same as completions, while also stripping out spikes, throwaways, batted passes, and instances where a quarterback was hit as he threw. After this adjustment, we contract expected completion percentage (based on the depth of target of each throw) with a quarterback’s actual completion percentage.

By contrasting expected completion percentage (based on the league-wide average in each season) with a quarterback’s actual completion percentage, we can determine which quarterbacks were actually the most accurate.

Here’s all quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts in 2018:

Barrett-21.png

You’ll notice Drew Brees ranks first, and that’s no coincidence. Over the past 10 seasons, Brees has ranked top-six in depth-adjusted completion percentage nine times. He’s also ranked top-three in four of his last five seasons, including first overall in each of the past two seasons. No one else really comes close.

Well, no one except for maybe Matt Ryan. Ryan ranks top-six in seven of his past eight seasons. He ranked fifth-best last year and has four top-three finishes over his past six seasons. Last season Ryan finished second among quarterbacks in total fantasy points, recording the 14th-most total fantasy points by any quarterback in any season all-time. In any other year – and if not for Patrick Mahomes (who ranked third on this chart and first all-time in total fantasy points scored) – he’d be in consideration for overall QB1 draft status. Instead, he’s a massive value by current ADP (QB7).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

I don't need to provide anything. I'm not the first person to consider MR not good at throwing the deep ball, and no, 20 yards is not a deep ball, I don't care what you say.  Just because some stat geek decided to coin that term for 20 yard passes a few years ago doesn't mean the coaches, fans, FO folks do. 

Right.

Keep on being wrong.  Good look.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

I have always thought MR throws the ball quite well.  Get over 40 yards and he's terrible. 

Please note: I don't consider over 20 yds. as a "deep ball".  

That's where it's hard to judge Matt, and why I said what I said. If 21 yards in the air is your criteria Matt can feed at that distance all day, and probably rank in the highest echelons. He's probably great out to 30-35. Beyond that I think he starts dropping off versus stronger armed QBs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, MSalmon said:

So your evidence is that some terrible former NFL QB says he throws a pretty deep ball? Come on.  It doesn't mean it is effective.  I have watched WAY too many times where he can't hit JJ deep, and I find it maddening.  Anyone who says differently just isn't paying attention. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Geneaut said:

That's where it's hard to judge Matt, and why I said what I said. If 21 yards in the air is your criteria Matt can feed at that distance all day, and probably rank in the highest echelons. He's probably great out to 30-35. Beyond that I think he starts dropping off versus stronger armed QBs.

Not really. Look at this true view

http://www.nfl.com/videos/trueview-highlights/0ap3000000977773/See-Matt-Ryan-s-perfect-deep-ball-in-360-True-View

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

So your evidence is that some terrible former NFL QB says he throws a pretty deep ball? Come on.  It doesn't mean it is effective.  I have watched WAY too many times where he can't hit JJ deep, and I find it maddening.  Anyone who says differently just isn't paying attention. 

And your evidence is you saying you are right...and we should give more credence to you why exactly?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

So your evidence is that some terrible former NFL QB says he throws a pretty deep ball? Come on.  It doesn't mean it is effective.  I have watched WAY too many times where he can't hit JJ deep, and I find it maddening.  Anyone who says differently just isn't paying attention. 

Look at the ball. Pay attention. Basic physics is why the strong armed mike Vick sucked at the deep ball. It’s about trajectory, motion and symmetry as much as arm strength.

and your evidence is a few misses on a low percentage pass play to start with...ha ha 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...