Dirk Koetter Breakdown

[Rings]

I spent some time tonight really trying to be as objective as possible around Dirk.  I REALLY tried to be positive here, I tried to be fair and find data for pretty much any stat I could find data for to get a good idea of who he is, this even eliminated a lot of the advanced stats I normally complain about because they only go back 2-4 years.

Pros:
The only thing he is top 8 for the last ten years is # of 1st downs, but that is somewhat inflated because he lacks explosive plays and has to have more plays to get down the field.

His 3rd down conversion rate is very strong, even in Jacksonville where he had to rely on pretty much only the run game he was still top 8 both years.  This is a great thing to have, and honestly is what helps keep him coaching in this league, but I still feel he relies on it too much, I wish he would call better plays on 1st and 2nd down so he didn't have to rely on this as much.

Outside of that there isn't a ton in all honestly.  His passing game is mainly high in yards because of attempts, not because Yards per Completion or other efficiencies. 

Yards per game is also high, but when you look at points per game being middle of the road and yards per point being so bad, it shows a lot of those are just empty yards.

Cons:
The stuff most of us complained about this year:  Lack of Play Action, Explosive Plays, QB taking too much pressure, Poor Run Game/Lack of Rushing Plays Called...turns out...not a one year thing...but a decade long thing.

Overall majority of his performance is at or below average over the last 10 years.  His team has had a winning record twice in that span.  

He is at best middle of the road in most offensive categories that matter, and he has had offensive players at his disposal by the names of:

MJD x3
Matt Ryan x4
Julio Jones x7
Roddy White x4
Tony Gonzalez x14
Michael Turner x2
Steven Jackson x3
Jameis Winston x1
Doug Martin x2
Vincent Jackson x3
Mike Evans x3
OJ Howard
Cameron Brate
Chris Godwin x1
Mohamed Sanu
Calvin Ridley
Devonta Freeman x2
Austin Hooper x1

If you can't do better than average to below average with those players, who have 50 pro bowl trips combined, I don't know how you keep a job.  Again, I tried to be positive...but the data backs up a lot of our concerns heading into next year.

 

What stands out to you???

[kiwifalcon]

He’s just not very good.

[papachaz]

I have to wonder, and admit this is pure speculation, but.....

 

didn't AB say he kept Q and TD because he wanted to keep the continuity? sooooo, does quinn DARE go against 'keep the continuity' by firing DK? I mean surely he isn't satisfied with our offense from this year is he?

 

I'm also going to go ahead and say there were a couple of games this year I wanted the whole bunch fired at half time. Yeah I get 'the turn around'....but what lead to there having to BE a turn around, when the same staff and players actually proved the second half what they could have/should have been ALL year? yeah, that would be enough for me to make some wholesale changes and relieve some people of their duties  (looking at you quinn and esp dirk to go along with you)

[Knight of God]

Not a fan. Not at all. Not excited

[MSalmon]

5 hours ago, Rings said:

I spent some time tonight really trying to be as objective as possible around Dirk.  I REALLY tried to be positive here, I tried to be fair and find data for pretty much any stat I could find data for to get a good idea of who he is, this even eliminated a lot of the advanced stats I normally complain about because they only go back 2-4 years.

Pros:
The only thing he is top 8 for the last ten years is # of 1st downs, but that is somewhat inflated because he lacks explosive plays and has to have more plays to get down the field.

His 3rd down conversion rate is very strong, even in Jacksonville where he had to rely on pretty much only the run game he was still top 8 both years.  This is a great thing to have, and honestly is what helps keep him coaching in this league, but I still feel he relies on it too much, I wish he would call better plays on 1st and 2nd down so he didn't have to rely on this as much.

Outside of that there isn't a ton in all honestly.  His passing game is mainly high in yards because of attempts, not because Yards per Completion or other efficiencies. 

Yards per game is also high, but when you look at points per game being middle of the road and yards per point being so bad, it shows a lot of those are just empty yards.

Cons:
The stuff most of us complained about this year:  Lack of Play Action, Explosive Plays, QB taking too much pressure, Poor Run Game/Lack of Rushing Plays Called...turns out...not a one year thing...but a decade long thing.

Overall majority of his performance is at or below average over the last 10 years.  His team has had a winning record twice in that span.  

He is at best middle of the road in most offensive categories that matter, and he has had offensive players at his disposal by the names of:

MJD x3
Matt Ryan x4
Julio Jones x7
Roddy White x4
Tony Gonzalez x14
Michael Turner x2
Steven Jackson x3
Jameis Winston x1
Doug Martin x2
Vincent Jackson x3
Mike Evans x3
OJ Howard
Cameron Brate
Chris Godwin x1
Mohamed Sanu
Calvin Ridley
Devonta Freeman x2
Austin Hooper x1

If you can't do better than average to below average with those players, who have 50 pro bowl trips combined, I don't know how you keep a job.  Again, I tried to be positive...but the data backs up a lot of our concerns heading into next year.

 

What stands out to you???

Nothing does except the middle of the road scoring that exemplifies DK: mediocre 

He sucks, as you have proven 

[Monolith2001]

I was fine  with DQ and TD but I am as disappointed as the next guy that Koetter is coming back (still hoping Chis Morgan can go elsewhere).  That said, aggregating all those stats is kind of unfair.  Yeah he owns those stats but he does not own them alone.  When your QBs are Jameis, Fitzmagic and a heavily pressured Matt Ryan, you're going to have on-field follies.  Throw in generally average to bad defenses and OL and his stats are going to reflect a sordid past statistically.  I simply wish we could see him dial up more PA and a little more pre-snap motion to buy more favorable matchups.  He just seems to be running plays and expecting our guys to win their matchups.  I don't see a scheme or game theory at play.  Anyways I've stayed away from most of the coach threads...they're our coaches whether we like it or not.

[mattyicefalcon]

Onus goes on offensive line.

Execution by offensive line coach and the players has been dismal past few seasons.

Even if the great Josh McDaniels was our O.C ....results would have been somewhat similar.

A R.B or offensive line who struggles to convert 3rd and shorts irrespective of any play calls.....most times cannot have success deep in season. 

[kiwifalcon]

5 minutes ago, Monolith2001 said:

I was fine  with DQ and TD but I am as disappointed as the next guy that Koetter is coming back (still hoping Chis Morgan can go elsewhere).  That said, aggregating all those stats is kind of unfair.  Yeah he owns those stats but he does not own them alone.  When your QBs are Jameis, Fitzmagic and a heavily pressured Matt Ryan, you're going to have on-field follies.  Throw in generally average to bad defenses and OL and his stats are going to reflect a sordid past statistically.  I simply wish we could see him dial up more PA and a little more pre-snap motion to buy more favorable matchups.  He just seems to be running plays and expecting our guys to win their matchups.  I don't see a scheme or game theory at play.  Anyways I've stayed away from most of the coach threads...they're our coaches whether we like it or not.

Set is his ways mate when you been doing something for so long it’s tough to relearn and change what ales you.He probably believes in what he’s doing and his way of coaching.

But anyone watching can see how disfunctional this offense is.I mean the Tampa games a prime example.TD off the opening drive and outside of FGs we didn’t look like entering the end zone again.

I think I’ve seen one yes 1 half this season where I’ve thought **** maybe but in all reality no just no.KS at least you could see how it could look and he came out of the gate like a bull.Can you honestly see that happening with DK.

[32wood84white]

3 minutes ago, mattyicefalcon said:

Onus goes on offensive line.

Execution by offensive line coach and the players has been dismal past few seasons.

Even if the great Josh McDaniels was our O.C ....results would have been somewhat similar.

A R.B or offensive line who struggles to convert 3rd and shorts irrespective of any play calls.....most times cannot have success deep in season. 

This is the truth of this offense. The oline has not been very good. We can blame it on DK if we want but that doesn’t change the fact the oline hasn’t been good enough.

[32wood84white]

4 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

Set is his ways mate when you been doing something for so long it’s tough to relearn and change what ales you.He probably believes in what he’s doing and his way of coaching.

But anyone watching can see how disfunctional this offense is.I mean the Tampa games a prime example.TD off the opening drive and outside of FGs we didn’t look like entering the end zone again.

I think I’ve seen one yes 1 half this season where I’ve thought **** maybe but in all reality no just no.KS at least you could see how it could look and he came out of the gate like a bull.Can you honestly see that happening with DK.

Tampa has a very disruptive defense. This offense isn’t the cream of the crop and the guy calling plays is hampering it. The oline isn’t helping any play caller.

[ShadyRef]

We are going to need three defense to be elite next season or at least top five. This franchise can't get out of its own way. I just don't understand how we have majority of the cap spent on offense but can barely put up 20 points a game while other coordinators are doing more with less. 

Even though the defense started the first half in abysmal fashion, no one can argue they have outperformed the offense by such a wide margin, it's not even close. We are getting more bang for the buck defensively considering how to heavy we are with the cap favoring offense. 

 

I would like to either see the next draft yield all defensive players. I think the offense has had enough resources poured in to it. Im not liking my returns. We need elite players at every position just to be average offensively.  

[papachaz]

2 hours ago, Knight of God said:

Not a fan. Not at all. Not excited

you know I had resigned myself to being ok with keeping quinn. Then yesterday, we're told dirk is staying as his OC....

 

nope, I'm over him. someone load em up, I'll drive em to the state line. I'm NOT excited at all about next year. Not excited about free agency or the draft. Some will say 'but we won 6 of 8 the second half with him' and I'll just go ahead and say we won some of those IN SPITE of him, or should I say them. Like sunday, for example. Why did we go for it on 4th when we were down 6 points with so much time on the clock? if we had kicked that field goal there, the game doesn't go to OT, as much as I enjoyed Debo getting that pick 6, the game by all rights should have already been over....

 

nah, I'm over 'em. I'll join you in that 'not excited' boat and we'll just drift along

[Da_Truth]

The fact that Quinn is keeping him around tells me all I need to know.  

[Rings]

1 hour ago, 32wood84white said:

This is the truth of this offense. The oline has not been very good. We can blame it on DK if we want but that doesn’t change the fact the oline hasn’t been good enough.

It has struggled, but good coaches adapt to help them out.  Week 8 and Week 16 Dirk did that, more RB screens, less 1-1 personnel, quicker passes (week 8 for Schaub especially), and there was less pressure.  He failed to the other 14 games. 

[Boise Falcon Fan]

1 hour ago, Monolith2001 said:

I was fine  with DQ and TD but I am as disappointed as the next guy that Koetter is coming back (still hoping Chis Morgan can go elsewhere).  That said, aggregating all those stats is kind of unfair.  Yeah he owns those stats but he does not own them alone.  When your QBs are Jameis, Fitzmagic and a heavily pressured Matt Ryan, you're going to have on-field follies.  Throw in generally average to bad defenses and OL and his stats are going to reflect a sordid past statistically.  I simply wish we could see him dial up more PA and a little more pre-snap motion to buy more favorable matchups.  He just seems to be running plays and expecting our guys to win their matchups.  I don't see a scheme or game theory at play.  Anyways I've stayed away from most of the coach threads...they're our coaches whether we like it or not.

Agree with a lot you say, but I'm not quite sure how PA would work for this year's team, other than I think it would have gotten MR killed.  PA takes time to develop, which many complain about DK's plays taking too much time, and the OL had protection problems all year, even when we were winning.  

[TheDirtyWordII]

As much as I appreciate the detail here, there is a layer of texture here that seems unfair - both negatively and positively, to rate Koetter’s (or any OC’s) performance fo that matter.

Take for instance the 2012-2014 period.  Are we really dinging Koetter for not running the ball when he had 1) a rotund and on his last legs Michael Turner and 2) a spent Steven Jackson?  In 2018, his best RB was Peyton Barber.

I think without the context of personnel to support, not sure how much value this provides in evaluating Koetter’s performance.  Feels like a good first step though research wise.

[UGABOZ]

8 hours ago, kiwifalcon said:

He’s just not very good.

agree and to bring him back is brutal.

[Osiruz]

3 hours ago, Knight of God said:

Not a fan. Not at all. Not excited

I am in the same boat, he is horrid. in Matt Ryan's words "Get him the tuck off the field!"

[Rings]

1 hour ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

As much as I appreciate the detail here, there is a layer of texture here that seems unfair - both negatively and positively, to rate Koetter’s (or any OC’s) performance fo that matter.

Take for instance the 2012-2014 period.  Are we really dinging Koetter for not running the ball when he had 1) a rotund and on his last legs Michael Turner and 2) a spent Steven Jackson?  In 2018, his best RB was Peyton Barber.

I think without the context of personnel to support, not sure how much value this provides in evaluating Koetter’s performance.  Feels like a good first step though research wise.

Of course, this just seem the most fair way to present trends and patterns, and patterns tell me he hasn’t had a good running game in 9 years.  We can point to personnel and lines all day, but we also have seen his failure to adapt to his situation and he tries to force his scheme on current players, when good coaching does the opposite.  San Fran is using retreads from us who weren’t good here on the oline and rotating three backs, one was a no namer before this year, and blowing it up on the ground.  The one constant is Dirk, just like any data, it isn’t the end all be all, but if I was a betting man I wouldn't put money on him having balance, consistency or success in the run game in 2020 because the last 9 years tell me the odds are he won’t.

[Lethal]

CoNtInUiTy

[Lethal]

1 hour ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

As much as I appreciate the detail here, there is a layer of texture here that seems unfair - both negatively and positively, to rate Koetter’s (or any OC’s) performance fo that matter.

Take for instance the 2012-2014 period.  Are we really dinging Koetter for not running the ball when he had 1) a rotund and on his last legs Michael Turner and 2) a spent Steven Jackson?  In 2018, his best RB was Peyton Barber.

I think without the context of personnel to support, not sure how much value this provides in evaluating Koetter’s performance.  Feels like a good first step though research wise.

This is amazing coming from you of all people lmao

[Jesus]

0-5 in red zone on Sunday

Could not convert 3rd/4th and 1.

Should have switched to Knapp.

 

[falconsd56]

2 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

As much as I appreciate the detail here, there is a layer of texture here that seems unfair - both negatively and positively, to rate Koetter’s (or any OC’s) performance fo that matter.

Take for instance the 2012-2014 period.  Are we really dinging Koetter for not running the ball when he had 1) a rotund and on his last legs Michael Turner and 2) a spent Steven Jackson?  In 2018, his best RB was Peyton Barber.

I think without the context of personnel to support, not sure how much value this provides in evaluating Koetter’s performance.  Feels like a good first step though research wise.

Yup.

Both 2013 and 2014 the offensive line were disasters...partly because of talent...mostly because injury...and both years had extensive offensive injuries... especially 2013

And the idea that the passing game is just due to attempts....very wrong

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/KoetDi0.htm

 

His offenses have been in top 10 in net yards per attempt 6 times and been been top 14 ( which is average) 8 times.

 

 

 

[falconsd56]

19 minutes ago, Jesus said:

0-5 in red zone on Sunday

Could not convert 3rd/4th and 1.

Should have switched to Knapp.

 

Question is why.

Just blaming the OC is lazy...especially when the qb "fumbles".....and I use that term loosely.

And the qb misses some open receivers in the end zone.

 

 

[Vandy]

With good coaching, we’ve shown the talent to be a top 5 team offensively. No excuses as to why we’re not.