G-Dawg Mock Draft - Now that we are picking 16th

[g-dawg]

Alright the season is over and Falcons decided to go 6-2 after the bye - not even getting into the "T" word as it is a silly discussion for losers.   YES, I wish we were picking higher but don't expect my Falcons to lay down and they never would.

Now we know we are picking 16th - slap dab in the middle of the draft.   Had we lost today we would have been picking 11th - not sure it would have mattered.  The players the Falcons would have been interested in that will be off the table now are as follows:

1) Chase Young, DE

2) Jeff Okudah, CB

3) AJ Epensa, DE

4) Derrick Brown, DT

So get those four players out of your minds - unless they test poorly or decide to visit Mary Jane the night before combo testing, all those guys figure to be gone in the Top 10-12 picks.

So w/o further ado, here is my Falcons mock draft - which won't solve every need - that is always a fallacy that this is possible - it's not.   You will not see an edge rusher in this draft as the 2nd tier guys aren't worthy of 16th overall pick and they are all pretty much gone by the time the Falcons pick again.  I tried to maximize the value of the pick even if it meant not necessarily grabbing our highest needs.  This was through a simulator on "The Draft Network" so this is somewhat realistic.  I just did 5 rounds - Falcons don't have a 6th round pick so all that is missing is a 7th rounder.  Also, don't yell at me about all the Clemson players - I am obviously not a Clemson fan - just turned out that way in this mock.

 

Welcome to VEGAS, BABY....   VEGAS!!!!!

 

2020 NFL Draft (mock simulator for everyone's picks except Falcons):

1. Cincinnati - Joe Burrow, QB LSU
2. Washington - Chase Young, DE Ohio State
3. Detroit - Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
4. NY Giants - Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
5. Miami - Jeffrey Okudah, CB Ohio State
6. LA Chargers - Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
7. Carolina - Derrick Brown, DT Auburn
8. Arizona - Tristan Wirffs, OT Iowa
9. Jacksonville - CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
10. Cleveland - Grant Delpit, FS LSU
11. NY Jets - AJ Epenza, DE Iowa
12. Oakland - Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
13. Indianapolis - Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
14. Tampa Bay - Jedrick Willis, OT Alabama
15. Denver - Isaiah Simmons, LB Clemson
16. Atlanta Falcons-Javon Kinlaw DT SCarolina (6'6", 310lbs)

Explosiveness: Dude's a rocket. Regularly times the snap well, especially when aligned over the center, and comes low and hot out of the chute when he's tasked with penetration. Leads with his shoulders over his toes and uncoils his hips to generate immediate displacement; resets the line of scrimmage with excellent bench press power. Wish he was better at carrying his feet with him through contact; frequently pops up after initial push and gives opponent an opportunity to re-anchor. Will get too far over his toes at times which leads to balance issues, but that's an acceptable consequence of his insane get off

Lateral Agility: Has some surprising quicks in him for such a big dude. Does well to work across face as a head-up pass rusher and has decent hip mobility to get into a gap and wrench his way around a half-man. Ankle bend helps him here. Does not have good hip sink, which leads to some laborious changes of direction in space, but at his size, you expect much of that. Has some solid reps working with flow as a run defender, but is generally guilty of turning his shoulders into the line of scrimmage and surrendering his back as he works for penetration.

Pass Rush Technique: All the tools in the toolbox. Generally wins with a bull-rush/push-pull profile: strong hands to grip, great upper body power to lock out, and then has the necessary power and quickness profile to rip opponent down and clear his hips into space. Tries to work a cross-chop and swim but is poorly served by his elite length here -- struggles to win hand fights in a tight area and ends up off-target with his strikes. Understands what to do when he wins a gap off the snap and has the flexibility and rip strength to turn corners against pressure and present in the defensive backfield. Learning how to maximize his length will lead to better one-on-one wins in the NFL.

Leverage: Good up until the third step. Such a long and tall player who simply struggles to stay coiled for a consistent period of time throughout a rep. Pops up as a two-gapper and relies on his upper-body power and length to solve the problem for him, which is a winning strategy in the SEC but may not be so in the NFL. Will often lose his pad level after his initial surge and bull rush and does not have the desired sled drive at this stage, though that's likely something you can teach up into him. Struggles with poor natural leverage are most obvious when he's double-teamed or down-blocked in a gap.

Block Deconstruction: Rare to see a square block on this cat in the first place. Is simply too long, quick, and powerful to be engaged one-on-one in space by guards and centers -- invariably gets to a half-man relationship and compromises pocket integrity, and the very least forcing the QB to move off his spot. When engaged, has the upper body strength and understanding of leverage to break free; regularly makes tackles at the line of scrimmage with a freed shoulder accordingly. With that said, is up-and-down against slide protection and will surrender his back to his opponent, limiting his ability to defeat the block. Same issues pop up against double teams.

Lower-Body Power: Could stonewall a charging bull. Ridiculous posterior chain power who shocks opponents backwards in head-up trench play without fail. Uses explosiveness to win interior gaps as a result of hip power when he uncoils. Shows a formidable anchor as well when he gets his hips low and plays with bent knees and a wide base, though these reps are frustratingly rare given his upright play style. Would like to see a better ability to reset his feet and sustain his leg drive when working his bull-rush, though this is more a leverage issue than anything else.

Upper-Body Strength: Bench presses everyone he faces. Has the ability to rip opponents away from his frame with one arm and can long-arm and sustain leverage against the biggest offensive linemen he faces. Ragdoll ability when he centers his hands on the chest plate. When his hands are located correctly as a pass-rusher, regularly breaks his opponents grip and can yank himself into the backfield with a violent and unstoppable push-pull. Is lacking for nothing here; blue-chip trait.

Mental Processing: Has some tunnel vision to his game which leads to some disappointing results to great process reps. Regularly resets the line of scrimmage as a run defender but will fail to diagnose backfield action concurrent with his penetration and accordingly lets possible TFLs run right by him. Smarter at the line of scrimmage when he's two-gapping, does well to break late into gaps while maintaining control of his opponent. Can feel down blocks coming quickly with spotty frequency -- at times gets too oriented on penetration and will turn his shoulders into gaps. Sees and feels screens mighty quick and will disrupt them. Does not feel double teams coming and loses leverage and balance accordingly -- must ID them quicker.

Motor: Has the juice early but definitely wanes as the game goes on. Willing to make pursuit plays across the line of scrimmage and has some solid clean-up reps against cutback reps, but doesn't have a ton of hustle into boundary plays or when re-tracing screens that he feels are out of his reach. The longer the game gets the more willing he is to sit on blocks, pop up at the line of scrimmage, or jog in pursuit.

G-Dawg - How he fits:  Kinlaw is a rare specimen who can win w/ quickness and power.   He is long enough to play outside on obvious run downs and strong/quick enough to be an inside passrusher.  Three down player and playmaker.

 

#2-048) Atlanta Falcons-Travis Etienne RB Clemson (5'10",210lbs)

PROS: Constant big play threat, who can take it the distance at any moment during games. Etienne operates at a different tempo than his surroundings. Able to floor the gas pedal and accelerate quickly. He has the ability to increase speeds without flaming out, which results in multiple explosive plays. Angle destroyer and even when defenders have the initial cutoff path to meet him, he outruns the angle to win alleyways. Much stronger runner than his body indicates. Well above average contact balance and has the body armor in order to fend off and run through defenders. Strength throughout his body to keep his legs churning, which results in breaking tackles on many different surfaces.

Keeps his shoulder parallel and presses the line of scrimmage while being able to survey the entire picture in front of him. On multiple types of running concepts, he exhibits a natural feel of being able to detect when front or back side defenders over-pursue, leaving cutting lanes open either ends of plays. Had multiple large gains of being able to gain momentum to the exterior and allow his rare speed to take over.

 

CONS: Because of his always pedal to the medal speed, his playing still can become a bit reckless. Etienne has left many yards on the field due to overrun holes or turning into a bit of a crash dummy when trying to squeeze his way through tight quarters. World class speed that needs to be contained at times because it results in negative plays that could’ve been avoided if playing under control.

Only recorded 17 career catches (prior to 2019 season). Offense has tried repeatedly to scheme him open, but his catch comfort appears to be lacking. Openly admitted that catching the ball makes him a bit nervous. Will need to become a better pass catcher in order to be a true three down threat.

G-Dawg:  How he fits - Etienne is a homerun hitter who can erase angles and is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball.   Has ability to catch the ball.   Very powerful legs and can move the pile even though not extremely stout.   Will bring explosion to a Falcons offense that badly needs it in the run game. 

 

#2-59) Atlanta Falcons - AJ Terrell, CB - Clemson (6'1", 190lbs)

Pros: Terrell is a natural athlete who fits seamlessly in press and man coverage schemes. Easy, natural transitions and change of direction. Flexible in the hips allows him to open up with ease, or stick his foot in the ground and drive without false steps. Footwork at the line of scrimmage is a strength, as he allows for minimal space between himself and the receiver. While Terrell has a nice build for the position, he does a good job of maximizing those physical tools as well. Disrupts stems in the contact window without bring overly aggressive. Forced routes off of the red line and towards the boundary as a result. Focused on attacking the catch point and causing disruption for the wide receiver. Quick reactions when the route happens in front of him.

Cons: Terrell can play with inconsistent eye discipline, too often misreading the ball out of the quarterback's hands. Would like to see him drive on the receiver first and react secondly, and he can be uncomfortable despite an explosive downhill trigger. Inconsistent tackling both wide receivers and in run support, but will stick his nose into the play and at least cause disruption.

G-Dawg:  How he fits - Falcons likely will let Trufant walk at some point.   Terrell is a long boundry corner and we could see him take over as starter by year 2.   Loose hips and great size, should test well.

#3-80)Atlanta Falcons-Trey Adams,OT - Washington (6'8",315lbs) 

Pass Sets - Committed to taking real estate at the snap, like his short sets and 45 degree sets to take away favorable angles and he trusts his length in transition in pass sets to flip and carry rushers around the edge. He's got requisite quickness initially to set himself favorably to frame. 

Length/Extension - Plenty of length and reach -- will often ensure he's got the seal to ride rushers out along the edge. Appreciate how his strike zone has reach, but also pop, he doesn't lose power with long levers and as a result it allows him to win early and often with his hands. 

Balance - Leverage is going to always be an issue at his size and you often see defenders up under his pads trying to lock out and collapse. He's strong through the core but back issues will raise questions on the longevity of high level play to out-muscle defenders without leverage. 

Hand Technique - Strike timing and secondary follow up to get his hands fit on the breastplate are strong, offers necessary grip strength and initial pop to offset forward push from most comers. Will patiently wait out rushers on the fringe of his strike zone before throwing initial stab. 

Power at POA - If you let him fire off the ball and attack ends in power run concepts, look out. He'll take dudes for a ride and once he gets forward push, he's got the grip strength and length to ride them fully out of the play. Will lean on his toes to compensate on far reaching blocks, though. 

Football IQ - Rarely lost with stunts, twists, overloads or any other defensive change ups. Pretty technically polished as a rSenior with a lot of starting experience -- proficient in his technique and ability to establish favorable fits prior to contact, especially on island protecting the edge.

Functional Athleticism - He's smooth and controlled but not overly nimble due in large part to his stature and difficulties with keeping his center of gravity down on high hips. He's cadenced when he's playing forward but lateral situations can stress him some. 

Anchor Ability - If you try to test him head up situations, you better be explosive. He'll take heavier defenders and neutralize them with hands and he's got the mass to swallow up rushes from undersized players. Explosive, long armed defenders will challenge him with speed to power, though.  

Flexibility - Tight through the hips. It shows up when trying to anchor and drop hips or when trying to unlock himself to move laterally to slide or crash down at steep angles and hit preemptive landmarks. Anatomical restrictions will limit his ability to overcome lateral tightness. 

Competitive Toughness - No one should be questioning toughness after coming back from several significant injuries. Tenacity and functional strength are notable plus qualities on film, especially to teams that like to reset the line of scrimmage and play forward in the run game. 

G-Dawg: How he fits - I actually see Adams as a more natural tackle than McGary.   Obviously the Falcons have a lot invested in McGary already but believe he might be a better guard.   This gives Falcons a lot of options and safety - should Matthews ever fall off we have a plan B there as well.   This player has first round talent but some injury history that will cause him to drop to Day 2 or 3.

#4-112)Atlanta Falcons-Jordyn Brooks,LB-TexTech(6'1",245lbs)

PRO: Super active and twitchy middle linebacker that is the heartbeart of not only the team, but the defense as a whole. Thrives on physicality and patience while reading his keys, he's excellent at triggering downhill to the ball once he's able to diagnose that happenings in the backfield. Took over a much larger role this year after the departure of Dakota Allen and hasn't disappointed.

After underwhelming a bit year, the larger role has forced him to step up and play as a key cog on the Red Raiders. A tackling machine, he's a ball magnet with no dial to turn down his playing speed. Full throttle all of the time and plays the game with no notches. Useful in coverage and because of the conference that he plays in, he has plenty of experience with seeing all different types of route concepts.

CONS: Consistency has been a battle that he's fought since stepping onto campus. Headed towards another season where he's the team-leader in tackles. That's his best asset, but he still has problems with disengaging at the point of attack or against climbing blockers. Because of the wide open nature of offenses, he's aided with a lot of clear pathways to ball carriers. When sets become a bit more condensed, he struggles with staying clean and free of incoming blockers toward his direction.

G-Dawg:  How he fits - Another smallish LB that can play in space and tackle well - poor man's Debo although probably not as fast.

#5-143)Atlanta Falcons-K'von Wallace,S - Clemson (5'11",205lbs)

PROS: Smaller statured safety prospect. Compact and muscular build from top-to-bottom that he's able to use to his advantage in multiple areas of his game. Has previously played nearly every position on the back end of the defense, but his most success has come at safety. Clemson is experimental with him -- he plays nickel, free and strong safety. A prospect that truly plays all over the place and switches his assignments from play to play.

High football I.Q. and awareness. With multiple hats that he's wearing at safety, it's clear that the coaching staff has full trust instilled within him in order to satisfy multiple needs. Fluid in man-to-man coverage, but it is not one of his best attributes. Wallace is more of a roamer that likes to operate in space. Ball pursuit is aggressive and makes sure to arrive at the ball point even when he's not the most immediate option to make tackles. Former days as a two-way play show up often when attacking the ball as he's shown to be comfortable with finding the ball in the air and making a play on it.

CONS: Warts show up the deeper he's asked to cover down the field as his lack of length and limited physical stature come into play. Targets have an added advantage with being able to attack the ball at higher points than his near maxed out body will allow. Wallace can be a bit hesitant when coming downhill as a run support player, enabling ball carriers to develop a well thought out plan prior to the delayed contact point.

G-Dawg:  How he fits - just a leader and versatile player in secondary.   Has ball skills and good tackler - just a guy kind of like Rico - useful and a leader w/ veratility.

[Vandy]

When did my friend G-Dawg move over to South Carolina? OMG,  4 picks from that state!
 

Like the Etienne pick, we’ve miss that Teco-like explosiveness. But like Teco, I see him more as a RBBC in NFL.

[g-dawg]

2 minutes ago, Vandy said:

When did my friend G-Dawg move over to South Carolina? 4 picks from that state.
 

Like the Etienne pick, we miss that Teco-like explosiveness. But like Teco, I see him more as a RBBC in NFL.

Yeah LOL - that is a rather weird anomaly.    The two guys that I would like that should be w/in range are possibly Espensa and Kinlaw - I don't believe AJ Epensa will quite make it to us though.   Kinlaw is a great consolation prize - he wreaked havoc on UGA offensive line which is a good one.  I don't really want to use a 2nd rounder on a RB but if Etienne or Swift fell to #48,  I'm probably taking them.  Falcons definitely need a little extra juice in the running game - like the backs we have - Hill/Ollison - but they are both #2 type backs. 

[thanat0s]

Disclaimer: I’m a BPA guy all the way, except QB, which is solely based on need. 

I understand the thinking, but I’m kind of meh, with this. Kinlaw might be there at 16, but personally I think he’ll be gone. Also, I have all my psychic powers working on our signing Suh to fill our DT slot. He’s what we need, not a rookie, IMO. Give him a two year deal.

If I'm able to add Suh to our rotation, then I’m seriously considering Swift with our top pick, because I KNOW he’ll be BPA at 16, unless there is a BPA Guard out there who warrants the pick, in which case I’d make that decision at that time. 

As for Swift, if we let Freeman go, it’s best to get a RB we control for five years. Then you move on before you have to pay him. Owning two 2nd rounders to fill other spots when the value is better also makes this a smart move. 

Also, and this is just a personal ritual of mine: I say a player’s name, and if it’s not catchy, I tend to think they won’t be stars. Etienne just sounds like a bust name to me. 

[VTCrunkler]

TE in the second round is steal. I don’t see him escaping the first. 

[blkbigdog35]

@g-dawgNice mock bro! Kinlaw beside Grady would be nasty.  Travis would be sweet if he lasts that long.  AJ would be a much needed improvement in the secondary. Do you think Miami is going to pass on Tua?

[g-dawg]

Just now, blkbigdog35 said:

@g-dawgNice mock bro! Kinlaw beside Grady would be nasty.  Travis would be sweet if he lasts that long.  AJ would be a much needed improvement in the secondary. Do you think Miami is going to pass on Tua?

I could see Miami researching all these QBs and deciding to keep trading down and get more assets for 2021.   Trevor Lawrence is the true prize outside of Burrow.

[stizz]

I don't get it with Kinlaw. Yes he's first off the snap, but he has big issues shedding blocks.

[Gold4425]

I really like Kinlaw that would be nice! Trey Adams in the 3rd would be great too. If Travis has a good Championship game I don't think he will be around by our second pick. I will look up Texas Tech LB. Shaq Quarterman LB from Miami is interesting for us in the 3rd or 4th. Raekwon Davis from Alabama 6:7 can play DE or DL would be a good get and I want RB Najee Harris I think he is going to have a better professional career than he had as a College Player. Dawg Safety J R Reed would be nice in the 3rd. It depends IF TD is the one doing the picking?

 

 

[Knight of God]

Great draft man. Solid all around. Had K’von Wallace in one of my older drafts. Nice all around

[Hashbrown3]

I’d take this draft any day.

[Ergo Proxy]

Solid.

I love the first two picks; especially given RB1 is a question for us pending Freeman being cut and DL depth entering this offseason (5 under contract?)...

My personal input: IMO we will be fine with Kaleb and I’d turn that pick into another DL or C for the future; perhaps even take a LB higher there as we do need to upgrade from Vondre (pending his walking in FA) If you want a RT, seriously give Gono a better look but honestly year 2 for the young guys will mean a lot.

CB I guess, but we have invested a lot there the past few drafts. Can we focus on front 7 more so this draft; unless CB is BPA of course? Maybe FA will net some augments for mocks by then.

But I’m not hating; just saying!

[FalconsIn2012]

Love it.  Brooks will be a steal in the 3rd.  I don’t thing 6’1 and 245 is small for a LB.

Would prefer Edwards-Elaine or Najee at RB though  

[Falcons_Frenzy]

I like this draft. It would be great to add Kinlaw. I have a feeling the Falcons go RB early as well unless they get a free agent. Freeman has to be gone right? 

[ATLSlobberKnockers]

Kinlaw scares me a bit. Has the talent and size but said the same about Hagemen. If Simmons is gone I hope we can trade back.

[ramonezy]

RB in the 2nd is a bit too rich for my taste with all the holes we have on defense. If we do go offense in the 2nd it better be for a Mack replacement. 

[1989Fan]

Would You anticipate Adams have the same technique issues McGary did coming out of Washington w the coaching there?

i like the idea of a RB in the top 3 picks if they are ready to move from Free. We have enough mid round JAGs on the roster, need a stud.

what in your eyes makes Etienne the guy over say Taylor or Dobbs?

[g-dawg]

9 hours ago, thanat0s said:

Disclaimer: I’m a BPA guy all the way, except QB, which is solely based on need. 

I understand the thinking, but I’m kind of meh, with this. Kinlaw might be there at 16, but personally I think he’ll be gone. Also, I have all my psychic powers working on our signing Suh to fill our DT slot. He’s what we need, not a rookie, IMO. Give him a two year deal.

If I'm able to add Suh to our rotation, then I’m seriously considering Swift with our top pick, because I KNOW he’ll be BPA at 16, unless there is a BPA Guard out there who warrants the pick, in which case I’d make that decision at that time. 

As for Swift, if we let Freeman go, it’s best to get a RB we control for five years. Then you move on before you have to pay him. Owning two 2nd rounders to fill other spots when the value is better also makes this a smart move. 

Also, and this is just a personal ritual of mine: I say a player’s name, and if it’s not catchy, I tend to think they won’t be stars. Etienne just sounds like a bust name to me. 

Suh?  WTH? Where do you think the most cap strapped team in the NFL gets the money for Suh?  I know he’s older now but still expensive.  No sir, Falcons shop at Dollar Tree in Free Agency, not Nordstrom’s.

Your RB argument is incoherent.  We would control 2nd rd RB for 4yrs in 2nd rd, and even though there is no 5th yr option, there is still the franchise tag to get the 5th yr at a little more cost.

[youngbloodz]

I love Etienne. The guy is great. But I don’t like a RB in the first two rounds. Just a personal preference but the draft is solid

[thanat0s]

34 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Suh?  WTH? Where do you think the most cap strapped team in the NFL gets the money for Suh?  I know he’s older now but still expensive.  No sir, Falcons shop at Dollar Tree in Free Agency, not Nordstrom’s.

Your RB argument is incoherent.  We would control 2nd rd RB for 4yrs in 2nd rd, and even though there is no 5th yr option, there is still the franchise tag to get the 5th yr at a little more cost.

Here we go with cap gibberish...

No thanks. 

[MSalmon]

I like it, @g-dawg! 
couple of questions:

1) McGary goes to RG and Lindstrom to LG? The Adams pick is intriguing. Could solidify line for a looong time

2) Does Debo stay in the middle with brooks? 
 

I love this mock

[Sponge]

I'm just happy mock draft season is back on TATF.

[MasterBateser]

There's something to be said about a corner when his best plays are tackles he makes. Meh.

[MasterBateser]

9 minutes ago, MSalmon said:

I like it, @g-dawg! 
couple of questions:

1) McGary goes to RG and Lindstrom to LG? The Adams pick is intriguing. Could solidify line for a looong time

2) Does Debo stay in the middle with brooks? 
 

I love this mock

It's a waste to do that.

You just spent the entire season letting McGary and Lindstrom learn their position and now you wanna have them move. It's not that easy, the line isnt just plug and play.

[TheDirtyWordII]

...and so it begins

DL is obviously ripe to be replenished since we have so many FA.  With Jarrett one cog in the middle, my early sense would be to look outside.

Any thoughts on Yetur Gross-Matos?