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g-dawg

NFL Draft Order and Falcons heading into Final Week of Regular Season

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http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

Falcons have the highest opponent winning percentage of any team in the NFL except for the Bengals who have already locked up the #1 pick in the NFL draft.  The way it works is this is the tie-breaker in the NFL to determine draft order for teams with the same record.   So basically the Falcons will be the last team to pick of all the teams with which the Falcons will share the same record.

Falcons currently have the #13 draft position

Should Falcons Lose in Week#17:   Browns, Jets and Broncos are all 6-9.   Browns play @ Cincinnati, Jets are @ Bills and Broncos host the Raiders.    I see the Browns beating the hapless Bengals to go to 7-9.   The Jets are likely to lose on the road to a good Bills team.   The Broncos/Raiders game is a coin flip but let's assume the home team Broncos win that game.  This would allow the Falcons to move up two spots to

Likely Pick: #11 overall (move up two spots)

Should the Falcons Win in Week#17:   Oakland(@ Denver), Dallas (vs Wash), Indy (@ Jax) and Tampa (vs Atl) are all 7-8.  If any of these teams win on Sunday, they will have a better record than Falcons.   Dallas has to win in order to have a prayer to make the playoffs so I will count Dallas behind us.   Indy/Jax could go either way but I look for Colts to pull out that one. 

Likely Pick: #15 overall (drop two spots)

G-Dawg Take:   Personally I don't see the Falcons losing to Tampa with the way they are playing right now.   My guess is the Falcons play their best game of the season and win 29-19.

2020 NFL Draft Order

Draft position clinched

PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB SOS
 
STREAK
 
1
 
 
1-14 .067 -- .560 Lost 3
 
2
 
 
3-12 .200 2.0 .498 Lost 3
 
3
 
 
3-11-1 .233 2.5 .506 Lost 8
 
4
 
 
4-11 .267 3.0 .471 Won 2
 
5
 
 
4-11 .267 3.0 .492 Won 1
 
6
 
 
5-10 .333 4.0 .483 Lost 1
 
7
 
 
5-10 .333 4.0 .510 Lost 2
 
8
 
 
5-10 .333 4.0 .548 Lost 7
 
9
 
 
5-9-1 .367 4.5 .531 Won 2
 
10
 
 
6-9 .400 5.0 .475 Won 1
 
11
 
 
6-9 .400 5.0 .519 Won 1
 
12
 
 
6-9 .400 5.0 .527 Lost 2
 
13 6-9 .400 5.0 .552 Won 3
 
14
 
 
7-8 .467 6.0 .473 Won 1
 
15
 
 
7-8 .467 6.0 .477 Lost 1
 
16
 
 
7-8 .467 6.0 .488 Won 1
 
17
 
 
7-8 .467 6.0 .500 Lost 1
 
18
 
 
 
 
 
 
7-8 .467 6.0 .508 Lost 2
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I wouldn’t put Espensa out of reach just yet. I’ve seem a lot of different opinions on him. I think 10-15 might be his range in the end though. I want to see more on Curtis Weaver and Gross-Matos. We might just have to hope that the QBs push some players down the board. 

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I feel like alot of the teams picking ahead of us all really need offensive players more than defensive players

Cincy,  Detroit, Miami, LA Chargers and Denver QB needy teams

Washington Jacksonville Carolina Arizona need offensive help primarily Offensive Line and or Skills

The teams I see looking defensively primarily in the first round before us NY Giants at 4, NY Jets at 10 and Cleveland at 12.

I think at 13 we will have the pick of the litter when it comes to who we want at 13. I think our first three picks should be defense, defense and RB

 

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2 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Delpit, Marvin Lewis, Dylan Moses, Kenneth Murphy & Kinlaw will possibly be there when we pick.  I’d be good with any of them

As the years go by, I become less worried about draft position beyond the first five...looking back at past drafts, every team has some fall-to guys; as well as some draft busts.  Mitigating the potential by taking the BPA for needs and scheme fit just seems to be the way to go...

 

We all remember when Clowney was a can't-miss...now a few seasons later he's on a traded team...  I try not to get all worked up by draft position, and who we just missed out on...

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8 minutes ago, Falconcheff said:

As the years go by, I become less worried about draft position beyond the first five...looking back at past drafts, every team has some fall-to guys; as well as some draft busts.  Mitigating the potential by taking the BPA for needs and scheme fit just seems to be the way to go...

 

We all remember when Clowney was a can't-miss...now a few seasons later he's on a traded team...  I try not to get all worked up by draft position, and who we just missed out on...

I just wanted to provide information on draft slots -

YES, you can look back at most drafts and other than maybe the 1989 Draft where Aikman/Mandarich/BarrySanders/DerrickThomas/DeionSanders where all the best picks went first and maybe the 2011 Draft where the picks went Cam/VonMiller/Dareus/AJ Green/PatrickPeterson/Julio - usually there are some busts mixed in and draft doesn't get it almost just right in the top 10.

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

I just wanted to provide information on draft slots -

YES, you can look back at most drafts and other than maybe the 1989 Draft where Aikman/Mandarich/BarrySanders/DerrickThomas/DeionSanders where all the best picks went first and maybe the 2011 Draft where the picks went Cam/VonMiller/Dareus/AJ Green/PatrickPeterson/Julio - usually there are some busts mixed in and draft doesn't get it almost just right in the top 10.

Don't get me wrong; I appreciate the information!!!  Knowledge is key!  Was just liking 2012's take on some good available players no matter what our position is...

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Once Chase Young was out of reach I didn’t care where we picked. Brown didn’t play like I thought he would this season, I’m fine with any of the talent between picks 3-20 and don’t feel like we’re missing out. However I am very worried about Koetter being retained

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5 minutes ago, Dirtybird56 said:

Once Chase Young was out of reach I didn’t care where we picked. Brown didn’t play like I thought he would this season, I’m fine with any of the talent between picks 3-20 and don’t feel like we’re missing out. However I am very worried about Koetter being retained

i think with koetter this offense will improve with a better run game. Everybody loves Freeman Ollison could be special i really dont know that with them and Ito and Hill is the answer i feel Ollison and Ito can split Hill Reps and if we keep Free we need a compliment running back. If we cut Free we need a genuine workhorse for this offense. No RBBC 

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3 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Delpit, Marvin Lewis, Dylan Moses, Kenneth Murphy & Kinlaw will possibly be there when we pick.  I’d be good with any of them

Please God not Marvin Lewis. He was horrible for the Bengals. 

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3 hours ago, GATXBOI said:

I feel like alot of the teams picking ahead of us all really need offensive players more than defensive players

Cincy,  Detroit, Miami, LA Chargers and Denver QB needy teams

Washington Jacksonville Carolina Arizona need offensive help primarily Offensive Line and or Skills

The teams I see looking defensively primarily in the first round before us NY Giants at 4, NY Jets at 10 and Cleveland at 12.

I think at 13 we will have the pick of the litter when it comes to who we want at 13. I think our first three picks should be defense, defense and RB

 

Detroit has Stafford; Denver has Locke, whom has been dang good since being able to play. NEITHER of those teams are remotely QB-needy at this point.

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I think we will still get a great player regardless.

Javon Kinlaw, Kristian Fulton, Grant Delpit, Isaiah Simmons, and Yetur Gross-Matos will all likely be there.

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28 minutes ago, m2Falcons said:

Detroit has Stafford; Denver has Locke, whom has been dang good since being able to play. NEITHER of those teams are remotely QB-needy at this point.

Stafford is Hurt could be time to move on and Locke isn't better than any QB taking in 1st round

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35 minutes ago, A-TowN.- said:

Please God not Marvin Lewis. He was horrible for the Bengals. 

Well at least we’ll be in the playoffs. The caveat is that we will never win an actual game there lol. 

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4 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Just low enough to take out all the top talent.   Given the state of the salary cap, I doubt the Falcons make any moves up the draft board as we need a lot of players.

Out of Reach:  Chase Young(DE), Jeff Odukah(CB),  AJ Epensa(DE), Derrick Brown(DT)

I'll be honest.... when u get past chase young (and maybe Jeff odu) .... I'll rather be drafting in the teens

 

1.The 5th year tag isn't that high.

 

2. I knowe some ppl really like derrick brown (I do too) but I think Javon Kinlaw as the better rusher would be a better fit... Again.. I would take him over Wilkins last year.

 

Also if we go DE ... Guys like Terrell Lewis (who i think will blow up the Senoirbowl and combine) and Yetur Gross-Matos and Curtis Weaver (I think he will test better then some think) are guys I wouldn't mind looking at in the mid to early 20s prospects

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1 hour ago, Dirtybird56 said:

Once Chase Young was out of reach I didn’t care where we picked. Brown didn’t play like I thought he would this season, I’m fine with any of the talent between picks 3-20 and don’t feel like we’re missing out. However I am very worried about Koetter being retained

Brown?  The same Brown that dominated Oregon, LSU, Bama, and UGA?

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Overall imo the drafting has been pretty good since this regime has been in place, we'll get SOMEBODY that can contribute... might not be a name but I'll take a player over a name anyday.

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9 hours ago, A-TowN.- said:

I think we will still get a great player regardless.

Javon Kinlaw, Kristian Fulton, Grant Delpit, Isaiah Simmons, and Yetur Gross-Matos will all likely be there.

Please Dear God - no Isaiah Simmons

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9 hours ago, atljbo said:

I'll be honest.... when u get past chase young (and maybe Jeff odu) .... I'll rather be drafting in the teens

 

1.The 5th year tag isn't that high.

 

2. I knowe some ppl really like derrick brown (I do too) but I think Javon Kinlaw as the better rusher would be a better fit... Again.. I would take him over Wilkins last year.

 

Also if we go DE ... Guys like Terrell Lewis (who i think will blow up the Senoirbowl and combine) and Yetur Gross-Matos and Curtis Weaver (I think he will test better then some think) are guys I wouldn't mind looking at in the mid to early 20s prospects

Javon Kinlaw is very interesting prospect.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he rises up before Falcons OTC.

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16 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Please Dear God - no Isaiah Simmons

Don’t be shocked. Quinn likes length, range and speed. Insane coverage ability. 

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13 hours ago, Falconcheff said:

As the years go by, I become less worried about draft position beyond the first five...looking back at past drafts, every team has some fall-to guys; as well as some draft busts.  Mitigating the potential by taking the BPA for needs and scheme fit just seems to be the way to go...

 

We all remember when Clowney was a can't-miss...now a few seasons later he's on a traded team...  I try not to get all worked up by draft position, and who we just missed out on...

I don't worry so much about our draft position in the first round.  To me the real impact of draft position comes into play in the second and third rounds.  

Having a very early second round pick is a great asset during the draft.  The talent drop off after the first few picks of the second round is usually pronounced.  For that reason, there are a lot of trade opportunities that can be very attractive and beneficial.

But, hey, we won't be in that position at all.  We will be in the middle of every round and TD will be calling teams to move up to get that one guy. Be prepared to see us give away draft assets once again.  

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