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Quinn: “Koetter Is My OC in 2020


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7 minutes ago, Schwarzwald said:

woke up to that today.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff/2019

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Tampa was the #3 ranked weighted DVOA tho...

I'm disappointed in our Turnovers and RZ play; also lack of explosive plays, but other drive metrics this year:

5th in yards

9th in points

24th in turnovers

2nd in plays

7th in TOP

4th in Drive Success Rate

...so, fix the turnovers and RZ offense? We could improve a lot.

In order to do that? Teams can't tee off on your OL/QB knowing it's all pass if you ran the ball with any semblance of reliability.

Dirk  does some things well, of those that he does too much of it is not very efficient; at least this year, and leads to settling for FGs or stressing the players more in a 'straight up' style of play design...I want more from the Jags game.

Many of those ranks are volume based not necessarily efficiency. Other metrics show this to be the case.

But hey, maybe 2020 will be the Defense necessary...Quinn harped on the run game having to get fixed for sure next year. He knows it. We know it. Some people seem to imply this year was good enough? If the run game doesn't ultimately rest on the shoulders of your OC, where does it rest?

That said, being able to hold onto the ball can be good strategically...but to the point it hurts your total scoring output? That feels very much like 2017 Falcons offense. Our explosive plays; almost none on the ground?, lacked and it took us a long time to move down the field and score.

Great post.

Creativity and imagination DK doesn’t have it and you know what that’s ok he is what he is.The idea though that after another year all of a sudden we or he is going to change is a misnomer in my eyes.

I watch Julio Jones for example if he was half pie creative he’d get his yards a whole lot easier than just here beat your guy.

Opposing DCs rub there hands together when they see Gage Hooper and others get there’s.

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I’m not a huge fan of Koetter, but I’m tired of the parade of OCs Matt Ryan’s has through his career. Changing coaches every year isn’t how you build a winner. 

Kyle Shanahan's first year as OC...  "He sucks, fire them all!"   Second year as OC...Super Bowl Bound!  Shanahan for President!!!

There’s a pro to this. Dam near every offensive player who contributed this season will be back next season so there’s no excuse for anyone not to know their routes and who to block. There may be a fe

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13 minutes ago, Schwarzwald said:

You really think the Falcons are gonna offer Vic a long-term deal averaging $15M per? We were 'always' going to focus on the front 7 on defense this offseason after investing in the OL 'fix' last year.

Vic was either gonna walk for a comp pick or be a fairly cheap re-signing if we wanted.

What do YOU think his market is?

Campbell? Idk his market. You keep him if you want to but not at an UFA bidding war as he is more complimentary than always reliable. Again, front 7 had the most overturn coming due for 2020. Vic and Campbell aren't nearly as consistent as Hooper at their jobs.

And, Morris was coaching the offense first half of the year. Campbell was how many years as a pro? And we can't "risk" him walking tho? Vic too had been hot/cold. He doesn't make enough plays when not showing up on the stat sheet for my taste. Again, $15M long-term? Someone will be dumb enough to pay him close to that. But hey, maybe the market is cool and he stays. :shrug:

No...I think Vic is a goner.  But his contributions to the defensive revival won’t be simple to replace.  He became impactful again.  That impact won’t be there in 2020.  So long as his market is a 3rd round comp, I’m good.

In any given season, there are 11-12k defensive snaps across all 11 positions.  On the front 4, I just pointed out that 2400 will be FA’s.  Throw in Campbell’s 1100 and 30%+ of 2019’s snaps won’t be returning in 2020.  That’s not an insignificant amount of transition for a defense who struggled with assignments and communication.

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Just now, TheDirtyWordII said:

No...I think Vic is a goner.  But his contributions to the defensive revival won’t be simple to replace.  He became impactful again.  That impact won’t be there in 2020.  So long as his market is a 3rd round comp, I’m good.

In any given season, there are 11-12k defensive snaps across all 11 positions.  On the front 4, I just pointed out that 2400 will be FA’s.  Throw in Campbell’s 1100 and 30%+ of 2019’s snaps won’t be returning in 2020.  That’s not an insignificant amount of transition for a defense who struggled with assignments and communication.

So, when coaching changed and helped the unit...why can't it do so again?

Tyeler and AC are likely back on the cheap as opposed to Vic/Campbell. Foye can easily increase snaps or we draft a LB first 2 or 3 rounds. Depends on other moves in FA and how the draft shakes out. Cominsky actually got an 80+ PFF grade in his limited snaps lol. I like his chances of at least upgrading Crawford's role. TBD on if we cut Bailey for the savings.

Again, we've known there was turnover coming. Takk will hopefully be back after doing much of the dirty work for guys like Vic this year. He is a situational rusher on Defense. That's about it. Not a monster the defense was made upon. In fact, I hope we can find what he was supposed to be. Decent role player, but not an every down potential star. Too many games he is washed out of any impact.

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16 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

Great post.

Creativity and imagination DK doesn’t have it and you know what that’s ok he is what he is.The idea though that after another year all of a sudden we or he is going to change is a misnomer in my eyes.

I watch Julio Jones for example if he was half pie creative he’d get his yards a whole lot easier than just here beat your guy.

Opposing DCs rub there hands together when they see Gage Hooper and others get there’s.

Well ya, no YAC. :shrug:

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43 minutes ago, Schwarzwald said:

So, when coaching changed and helped the unit...why can't it do so again?

Tyeler and AC are likely back on the cheap as opposed to Vic/Campbell. Foye can easily increase snaps or we draft a LB first 2 or 3 rounds. Depends on other moves in FA and how the draft shakes out. Cominsky actually got an 80+ PFF grade in his limited snaps lol. I like his chances of at least upgrading Crawford's role. TBD on if we cut Bailey for the savings.

Again, we've known there was turnover coming. Takk will hopefully be back after doing much of the dirty work for guys like Vic this year. He is a situational rusher on Defense. That's about it. Not a monster the defense was made upon. In fact, I hope we can find what he was supposed to be. Decent role player, but not an every down potential star. Too many games he is washed out of any impact.

Ultimately, the talent base likely takes a step back on defense.  Say what you want about Beasley, but he delivered (finally) during the last half of the season.  Coupled with Campbell’s likely departure, and that’s a decent hit.  BTW, if we cut Bailey...that’s another front four guy gone.  So I don’t see a scenario where talent and depth along the front four isn’t an issue.  Teams that say that at the seasons outset generally fare poorly.

As for Davison, he had a big year...bigger than any he’d had with NO.  DT seems to be a position where guys struggle to get more than 1 year deals.  But I can see Davison being patient.  If he’s back, great.  But if someone else likes him...

Yes, the defense improved.  But it wasn’t a great unit still and while SF/NO remain season high points, if they get 3 of 16 games against the likes of the Kyle Allen’s and Minshew’s of the world, they’ll be lucky, much less 3 of 8.

Like I said...I think Morris is as much, if not more on the spot than Koetter.  At least the Falcons have a significant amount of talent for Koetter to work with.  There’ll be attraction that Morris will have to contend with.

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1 minute ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Ultimately, the talent base likely takes a step back on defense.  Say what you want about Beasley, but he delivered (finally) during the last half of the season.  Coupled with Campbell’s likely departure, and that’s a decent hit.  BTW, if we cut Bailey...that’s another front four guy gone.  So I don’t see a scenario where talent and depth along the front four isn’t an issue.  Teams that say that at the seasons outset generally fare poorly.

As for Davison, he had a big year...bigger than any he’d had with NO.  DT seems to be a position where guys struggle to get more than 1 year deals.  But I can see Davison being patient.  If he’s back, great.  But if someone else likes him...

Yes, the defense improved.  But it wasn’t a great unit still and while SF/NO remain season high points, if they get 3 of 16 games against the likes of the Kyle Allen’s and Minshew’s of the world, they’ll be lucky, much less 3 of 8.

Like I said...I think Morris is as much, if not more on the spot than Koetter.  At least the Falcons have a significant amount of talent for Koetter to work with.  There’ll be attraction that Morris will have to contend with.

Oh I agree the turnover creates at least a drop off in experience; again pending all FA moves.

Bailey may not be a cut, but again Tyeler won't command what Bailey got. He's a role player. We will need 3-4 DL that can make the roster by the end of Draft more or less and possibly 1-2 LBs. Beasley delivered but again, we see guys bounce around and benefit from coaches putting them in better positions. Beasley is talented but not this completely can't miss player. I'd like to have him back for the right price. I'd rather be competitive with Hooper than with the prices Vic is likely to garner in the open market.

We shut Brees down twice. If the offense had a respectable showing in game 2, that's a win at home and a sweep of NO...

Jacoby Brissett wasn't much of anybody but the unit was still garbo at that time. Night and day defense after the Bye week. We may be getting Keanu back. That'll help. TBD on front 7 and cuts/restructures to come.

I didn't envy TD's job last offseason. He doesn't have nearly as much in house mega deals to worry about this year; see Julio/Grady/Debo...but this draft and the shaping of the roster heading into UFA will be as critical if not more so than last year. Brown being basically impossible to move on from until after 2020 is hurting us, too.

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3 hours ago, Cole World said:

 

 

 

If anyone in Flowery Branch had a remnant of a rationale brain remaining they would know this >>> "Continuity for the sake of continuity is simply continuing to repeat insanity." (ie., doing the same thing and expecting different results)

At this point I'll expect nothing meaningfully good from the Falcons until Arthur Blank is no longer the owner, Rich McKay, Dimitroff, Quinn and the rest of Management is gone, Matt Ryan, Julio, Matthews, Mack, Allen, Trufant, Freeman, and Beasley are ALL GONE.

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10 minutes ago, m2Falcons said:

If anyone in Flowery Branch had a remnant of a rationale brain remaining they would know this >>> "Continuity for the sake of continuity is simply continuing to repeat insanity." (ie., doing the same thing and expecting different results)

At this point I'll expect nothing meaningfully good from the Falcons until Arthur Blank is no longer the owner, Rich McKay, Dimitroff, Quinn and the rest of Management is gone, Matt Ryan, Julio, Matthews, Mack, Allen, Trufant, Freeman, and Beasley are ALL GONE.

IMG_4182.JPG.97b5401963293e1d12bb6a7316cfbc29.JPG

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On 12/27/2019 at 3:19 PM, 4dabirds said:

Well, the Falcons offense is #5 (ahead of the 49ners and Saints) in the total offense category, and that is in large part because we have the #3 passing offense. Where the offense really sucks is running the ball, where we are #30. It doesn't help that the team has played from behind most of the year, in large part due to terrible defensive play and numerous penalties on both sides of the ball. Getting a better defensive effort with more turnovers, better field positions, and far fewer penalties will help the run game significantly as we've seen in the last few weeks. You really can't put it all on, Koetter.

Well said and certainly accurate. It should not be an outlier for this team to average somewhere around 30 ppg next season. But it's not going to be a cake-walk. Koetter doesn't have the creativity to really get all the juice out of this offense.

He'll need luck with injuries, good execution on a consistent basis, strong OL play to keep Matt upright, and the elimination of the stupid pre-snap offensive penalties and holding calls. And of course, this defense has to avoid getting buried before the offense can get anything established. Maybe this "continuity" thing will help him get all that for next year's play-off run.

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1 hour ago, m2Falcons said:

If anyone in Flowery Branch had a remnant of a rationale brain remaining they would know this >>> "Continuity for the sake of continuity is simply continuing to repeat insanity." (ie., doing the same thing and expecting different results)

At this point I'll expect nothing meaningfully good from the Falcons until Arthur Blank is no longer the owner, Rich McKay, Dimitroff, Quinn and the rest of Management is gone, Matt Ryan, Julio, Matthews, Mack, Allen, Trufant, Freeman, and Beasley are ALL GONE.

As my grandpa would say,, "Your crippled to high for crouches !  :sadwave:   :lol:

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