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Matt Ryan at 84 on Pro Football References Hall of Fame Indicator


Geneaut
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https://www.pro-football-reference.com/hof/hofm_QB.htm

Explanation of the metric: https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2019/12/introducing-the-pfr-hof-monitor/

Matt is at 83.54 where 100 is pretty much the average of a sure fire HOF'er, 120 is a First Ballot, and 80 is usually considered to eventually get in or the highest level borderline. He's right behind Big Ben and Rivers, and a notch ahead of Kenny Stabler.

Let the battle begin! And may the odds be forever in your favor!

 

Edited by Geneaut
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30 minutes ago, athell said:

I guess outside from being behind Rivers (because why?) I am mostly ok with it.  

 

I still don't see why people view Rivers so highly as they do. No doubt Rivers has been a really good QB, but he is overrated a good bit.

 

Outside of stats, he doesn't have much of a resume. He is also playing awful now and may be permanently on the downside of his career.

 

Ryan is on a better pace stats wise than Rivers was at his age and Ryan already has an NFL MVP and SB appearance in his resume.

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1 minute ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

I still don't see why people view Rivers so highly as they do. No doubt Rivers has been a really good QB, but he is overrated a good bit.

 

Outside of stats, he doesn't have much if a resume. He is also playing awful now and may be permanently on the downside of his career.

 

Ryan is on a better pace stats wise than Rivers was at his age and Ryan already has an NFL MVP and SB appearance in his resume.

I agree.  I think Rivers is too high on that list when you consider how his plays have dropped in the playoffs.  He also has quite a few late game TO ending his team chances at winning.  If you want it to sound good you call him a gunslinger who go down fighting, but if you want it to sound bad you call him a choker.

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13 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

I think Rivers has more Pro Bowls and All Pros. That is weighted in their formula.

 

Actually Ryan has more All-Pros than Rivers.

 

Rivers never been All-Pro. Also, Rivers Pro Bowls came in the AFC. He wouldn't have nearly as many if he were in the NFC.

 

For a long time, all the AFC had was Peyton, Brady, and Roethlisberger to contend with.

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Just now, freefall said:

I agree.  I think Rivers is too high on that list when you consider how his plays have dropped in the playoffs.  He also has quite a few late game TO ending his team chances at winning.  If you want it to sound good you call him a gunslinger who go down fighting, but if you want it to sound bad you call him a choker.

In fairness most people are kind of 50/50 on Rivers being a HOF'er and his score puts him in that 'borderline' area so it's interesting.

There may be an argument he's been in the same division with 2 of the all time greats most of his career with Manning and Brady. 

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1 minute ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

Actually Ryan has more All-Pros than Rivers.

 

Rivers never been All-Pro. Also, Rivers Pro Bowls came in the AFC. He wouldn't have nearly as many if he were in the NFC.

 

For a long time, all the AFC had was Peyton, Brady, and Roethlisberger to contend with.

My bad ... had trouble reading that column of numbers. I don't know how much those things factor into the formula so it may not be significant. I'd love to see the formula they use in its entirety. 

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6 minutes ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

Actually Ryan has more All-Pros than Rivers.

 

Rivers never been All-Pro. Also, Rivers Pro Bowls came in the AFC. He wouldn't have nearly as many if he were in the NFC.

 

For a long time, all the AFC had was Peyton, Brady, and Roethlisberger to contend with.

Hey man, don’t forget about Flacco lmfao. 

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29 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

In fairness most people are kind of 50/50 on Rivers being a HOF'er and his score puts him in that 'borderline' area so it's interesting.

There may be an argument he's been in the same division with 2 of the all time greats most of his career with Manning and Brady. 

 

 

Rivers has been a part of some very weird Chargers teams. That either start off good and fall off late in the season or start off bad and get hot at the end of the season when it's too late.

 

I still think Spanos firing Schottenheimer and keeping AJ Smith as GM was a bad decision. Charger teams were more stable under Marty despite loosing that AFCCG when they was 14-2. AJ Smith let so much talent walk out the door with nothing to show for it. Chargers still haven't really recovered from those 2 bad decisions.

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48 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

I think Rivers has more Pro Bowls and All Pros. That is weighted in their formula.

 

48 minutes ago, Atlantafan21 said:

I would assume it’s because Rivers has been in the league longer and is higher in passing yards and TDs right now. 
 

edit: What geneaut says makes sense as well. 

Dawn beat me to it vvv

41 minutes ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

I still don't see why people view Rivers so highly as they do. No doubt Rivers has been a really good QB, but he is overrated a good bit.

 

Outside of stats, he doesn't have much of a resume. He is also playing awful now and may be permanently on the downside of his career.

 

Ryan is on a better pace stats wise than Rivers was at his age and Ryan already has an NFL MVP and SB appearance in his resume.

Stats is all he has, and that's only because he has played longer.  I think Matt's career resume is more impressive but I'm probably nitpicking there.  Either way, Matt should get in if he keeps this pace up.

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1 minute ago, athell said:

 

Dawn beat me to it vvv

Stats is all he has, and that's only because he has played longer.  I think Matt's career resume is more impressive but I'm probably nitpicking there.  Either way, Matt should get in if he keeps this pace up.

When Rivers is through he may be the guy that is the break point. In the future you have to be slightly better than Rivers to even consider getting in the HOF, and you'll never make it in if you are worse.

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26 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

When Rivers is through he may be the guy that is the break point. In the future you have to be slightly better than Rivers to even consider getting in the HOF, and you'll never make it in if you are worse.

 

I could actually see that happening if Rivers was to get in.

 

But who was the measuring stick for potential QB HOF status before Rivers potentially takes that mantle?

 

Fouts? Kelly?

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44 minutes ago, 1989Fan said:

But can he scramble?...

Rivers is the ultimate hype player...with nothing to back it up. I am sure the Chargers are so glad they were smart enough to let Brees walk so Rivers could get his shot.

 

 

In hindsight, the Rivers over Brees saga looks historically bad.

 

But really no one had the slightest idea of what would become of Brees. Brees was decent as the starting QB of the Chargers, but he didn't look like anything special. Him tearing his throwing shoulder out of place made many think that his career could've been over or at least his throwing arm would've never been the same, which made the Chargers(GM AJ Smith) decision easier.

 

Schottenheimer actually really liked Brees and wanted to keep him as the Chargers starting QB. It was AJ Smith who decided to draft a QB during the 2004 draft. Eli was the QB Smith wanted, but Archie was deadset on refusing Eli to be drafted by them. Which is why there was a draft night trade of Eli for Rivers.

 

The drafting of a 1st round QB started the rift between Schottenheimer and AJ Smith. Spanos took Smith's side and fired Schottenheimer after that 14-2 season when both his OC Cam Cameron and DC Wade Phillips left for HC jobs.

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Brees looked like the Brees we know his last season as a Charger. He was a pro bowler. He did have a slower start into the NFL though. Still not sure what SD would have done had he not tore his shoulder.

i am just still bitter MIA was stupid enough to pass on Brees in FA (due to injury), but the  trade a 2nd for Culpepper with a shredded knee. 

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12 minutes ago, 1989Fan said:

Brees looked like the Brees we know his last season as a Charger. He was a pro bowler. He did have a slower start into the NFL though. Still not sure what SD would have done had he not tore his shoulder.

i am just still bitter MIA was stupid enough to pass on Brees in FA (due to injury), but the  trade a 2nd for Culpepper with a shredded knee. 

 

 

It was a tug of war between Schottenheimer (team Brees) and Smith (team Rivers).

 

I think Rivers would've still eventually won out because he was basically their 1st overall pick in principle. Rivers was the 4th overall pick, so he would've eventually had to play regardless. This was when there was no rookie salary cap, so Rivers was getting paid way above the average QB market salary.

 

Unless the Chargers had won the SB that year, Brees would've been traded for a pretty decent deal. There was already rumblings of him possibly getting traded before he got hurt.

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