Hiring An Offensive-Minded HC (something to think about...)

[PeytonMannings Forehead 27,502]

The prevailing wisdom at the moment centers around getting an offensive specialist and going all in on the rest Matt and Julio's prime years.  By focusing on an offensive head coach, you insulate yourself from him being hired away by another team when/if we inevitably catch fire and having to hit reset on that side of the ball.  Sound logic, but I just wanted to put this out there as a little food for thought.

No brilliant coach or coordinator works in a vacuum.  No matter what level of genius he has, he leans on his assistants to help him put it all together on gameday.  Every single assistant coach is charged with contributing -- your running backs coach might be responsible for protections that week, your wide receiver coach might be responsible for coming up with red zone plays, QB coach might be assigned 3rd downs, and so-on right on down the line.  You see a great offense, I promise you there is a great staff working behind the scenes.  Those guys become hot commodities, too, and when they leave, the effects are felt.

Just to give a few examples:

2017 Eagles - Super Bowl Champions - Doug Pederson Offensive Minded HC: #3 in points, #7 in yards, #8 in DVOA 

That offseason both Frank Reich and John DeFillippo get hired away.

2018 Eagles - #18 in points, #14 in yards, #16 in DVOA

 

2016 Washington Redskins - Jay Gruden Offensive Minded HC: #12 in points, #3 in yards, #5 in DVOA

Next year, Sean McVay gets hired away by the Rams and takes Shane Waldron with him...

2017 Washington Redskins - #16 in points, #16 in yards, #20 in DVOA

 

2018 Los Angeles Rams - Sean McVAy - #2 in points, #2 in yards, #2 in DVOA

Offseason he loses Zac Taylor (LaFleur left in '17)...

2019 Los Angeles Rams - #13 in points, #12 in yards, #18 in DVOA

 

Now I'm not saying that losing assistants is a death knell, but don't fall into the trap of thinking that just because you hire an offensive minded head coach that you insulate yourself from the brain drain that inevitably happens when assistants get poached and the dips in production that come with that.  Andy Reid and Gary Kubiak are really the only guys who bucked this trend.  Both those guys' offenses got better when they lost their key guys (Matt Nagy and Kyle Shanahan respectively), but those two are special, they don't have any doppelgängers sitting out there right now.

[Sidecar Falcon 7,783]

Didn't read yet but liked it anyway once I saw the poster. You get insta-likes now bro. lol

[PeytonMannings Forehead 27,502]

Just now, Sidecar Falcon said:

Didn't read yet but liked it anyway once I saw the poster. You get insta-likes now bro. lol

 ... well hold on now.  I might stir up something.  

[Boise Falcon Fan 4,027]

I agree with your post, but I would say that success will always breed defections. I don't care if we go D or O minded coach as long as we have success, knowing that said success will mean attrition of coaches to other teams. Either way, the new HC needs to have top coordinators on D & O, and the HC needs to be a HC. HC needs to hire the right people, and for the most part, trust them to do their jobs without micromanaging too much. HC still needs to step in when necessary, please see 28 - 3, and override important decisions if the situation warrants it.

[FalconsIn2012 35,693]

It’s why I wanted to  keep LaFleur, McDaniels, LaFleur & Scangarello from 2015/2016 staff 

All 4 will be OC or HC in 2020

[PeytonMannings Forehead 27,502]

1 minute ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

I agree with your post, but I would say that success will always breed defections.

Exactly.

[PeytonMannings Forehead 27,502]

1 minute ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

It’s why I wanted to  LaFleur, McDaniels, LaFleur & Scangarello from 2015/2016 staff 

Agreed.  The way you protect yourself from brain drain that success causes, you stock up with as much talent as you can, groom and promote from within.  It still blows my mind that we had both LaFleur and McDaniel in the building just sitting there waiting to be elevated and we let BOTH walk.

I still don't think Q had properly answered for that.

[FalconsIn2012 35,693]

3 minutes ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

Agreed.  The way you protect yourself from brain drain that success causes, you stock up with as much talent as you can, groom and promote from within.  It still blows my mind that we had both LaFleur and McDaniel in the building just sitting there waiting to be elevated and we let BOTH walk.

I still don't think Q had properly answered for that.

All 4 will be OC or HC next year.  That’s stunning...and an incredible loss from our offensive side

Sadly we could’ve easily kept all four for a few years

[The Don™ 4,818]

In 16'. We were #1 in points and #2 in yards and then drop to #15 in points and #8 in yards in '17. I wasn't a huge Sark fan but losing Shanny, Mike McDaniel, Bobby Turner and Matt LaFleur definitely did not help with continuity of the offense. Sark was more or less a scapegoat IMO.

[Sidecar Falcon 7,783]

19 minutes ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

 ... well hold on now.  I might stir up something.  

LOL Just finished reading it. I agree with you in principle. A coach needs to be hired on their own individual merit, and not based on which side of the ball they coordinated. All things being equal, we shouldn't choose an offensive coach, based on the fact that we had two defensive coaches.However, recency bias does play a huge role in sports.

That being said, I think it is a little understated the impact losing Gurley had on that offense. They also threw the bank at big name players with minimal output. 2018 Eagles also had a injuries that affected their defense (McLeod and Darby).

Regardless I think if we do get another coach, it won't be a DC. One thing I think that doesn't get mentioned is the possibility we hire a Special Teams coach. It worked for the Ravens. Of course they had Ozzie. We need to cast a wide net, and interview EVERYONE,

[athell 31,482]

I agree with you PMF, but it goes both ways meaning it's just as important for a defensive HC to have a solid staff than it is for an offensive HC.

Coaching in the NFL is critical.  We saw Quinn + Great OC and it resulted in SB.  We saw Quinn + Good OC (Sark) and resulted in a playoff run.  We are seeing Quinn + Garbage OC (DK) and we are neutered completely on offense.  We have also seen a turnaround from defensive performance from Quinn with Ulbrich and Morris being more hands off to them being more hands on.  The HC is just the head of the snake, great coordinators and assistants are arguably more critical to overall team success on a weekly basis.

[PeytonMannings Forehead 27,502]

3 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

That being said, I think it is a little understated the impact losing Gurley had on that offense.

Yes.  Very much so.  Also, McVay has been slow to adjust this year -- surprisingly so.  The league caught up with wide zone stuff they were basing everyone off of and it wasn't until he started going back to more inside zone stuff that they started to hit their stride again.  You can imagine how losing a key set of eyes like Taylor might have impacted that... and how off-kilter Goff looked at times.

 

7 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

Regardless I think if we do get another coach, it won't be a DC. One thing I think that doesn't get mentioned is the possibility we hire a Special Teams coach. It worked for the Ravens. Of course they had Ozzie. We need to cast a wide net, and interview EVERYONE,

You must be in my brain right now.  I've actually mentioned this a few times and it's really been my only point.  You never know where you might find the next great head coach.  Nobody can tell me they wouldn't be interested in a John Harbaugh right about now and the guy's never called plays a day in his life outside of Special Teams.  

Just think of how much talent is being excluded by only focusing on the offensive side of the ball.

[Jpg428gggg 1,670]

I completely agree. They both have their benefits but a great staff needs great coaches from top to bottom.

One thing I do like about having an offensive minded head coach is it makes the decision of going for it on 4th down more seamless. If you are an offensive head coach, you can balance the decision to go for with it with the odds, how your offense is playing, and do I have a good playcall here? You might dial back your aggressiveness if you know the other team has your number that day. On the flip side, you might be more aggressive if your offense is feeling it.

[PeytonMannings Forehead 27,502]

2 minutes ago, athell said:

I agree with you PMF, but it goes both ways meaning it's just as important for a defensive HC to have a solid staff than it is for an offensive HC.

Coaching in the NFL is critical.  We saw Quinn + Great OC and it resulted in SB.  We saw Quinn + Good OC (Sark) and resulted in a playoff run.  We are seeing Quinn + Garbage OC (DK) and we are neutered completely on offense.  We have also seen a turnaround from defensive performance from Quinn with Ulbrich and Morris being more hands off to them being more hands on.  The H

C is just the head of the snake, great coordinators and assistants are arguably more critical to overall team success on a weekly basis.

Agreed on all counts.  I was focusing on the offense because that's the board consensus at the moment and there's the line of thought that if you hire an offensive head coach you won't have to worry about the dips in production on that side of the ball when that couldn't be further from the truth.  

5 minutes ago, athell said:

The HC is just the head of the snake, great coordinators and assistants are arguably more critical to overall team success on a weekly basis.

Yes!  Absolutely.  And more times that not, you have a closer relationship with the assistants, who are your position coaches, than you do with the head man.  

Reminds me of this old military axiom -- the Lieutenant is in charge of the platoon, but it's the Sergeant who runs it.

[Sidecar Falcon 7,783]

1 minute ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

Yes.  Very much so.  Also, McVay has been slow to adjust this year -- surprisingly so.  The league caught up with wide zone stuff they were basing everyone off of and it wasn't until he started going back to more inside zone stuff that they started to hit their stride again.  You can imagine how losing a key set of eyes like Taylor might have impacted that... and how off-kilter Goff looked at times.

 

You must be in my brain right now.  I've actually mentioned this a few times and it's really been my only point.  You never know where you might find the next great head coach.  Nobody can tell me they wouldn't be interested in a John Harbaugh right about now and the guy's never called plays a day in his life outside of Special Teams.  

Just think of how much talent is being excluded by only focusing on the offensive side of the ball.

I agree that league also caught up with the McVay offense. Losing your brain trust does inhibit your ability to have sustained success. I think the thought process about hiring an OC as the next HC revolves around a few things.

The obvious failure of two DCs as HCs

Recency bias of the 2016 season

Success of OCs as HCs in the league (McVay, Pederson)

Our team being geared for the offense

I think it all starts with the GM. We NEED the right GM here to make it all work.

[athell 31,482]

Just now, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

Agreed on all counts.  I was focusing on the offense because that's the board consensus at the moment and there's the line of thought that if you hire an offensive head coach you won't have to worry about the dips in production on that side of the ball when that couldn't be further from the truth.  

Yes!  Absolutely.  And more times that not, you have a closer relationship with the assistants, who are your position coaches, than you do with the head man.  

Reminds me of this old military axiom -- the Lieutenant is in charge of the platoon, but it's the Sergeant who runs it.

Yes sir!

Either way, we gotta hit on whoever we bring in.  The Matt and Julio timing makes this super important.  I would prefer an offensive HC, but it would have to be the right fit and he would need to be here through the remainder of their careers.  No more turnover, let's get a great offensive mind in to ride out their careers...which is why I prefer him as HC and not OC.

[freefall 726]

I noticed you did not mention NO in there so I went and look at just their basic stats PPG, and as much as we might not like NO or Sean Payton, we have to respect what they have done on offense.  They have a top 10 scoring offense every year this decade except for 2010 when they were 11th.  That was the only year since Ryan came into the league back in 2008 NO did not have a top 10 scoring offense.  In that same span they have a top 5 scoring offense 8 times!  Truly remarkable if you think about it.   

[duckhoa 385]

Always enjoy your insight Forehead.

I would say that we have already failed with a defensive head coach...x2. 

Smitty was a solid DC and Quin was a top notch DC when they were hired as HC, and both failed to give us a top notch D.

The strength of our team is Ryan and Julio (and that offensive line next year).  

Let's give them some stability.  

I would love to see Ryan with the same offensive system for the next 4-5 years, to finish his career.

 

[PeytonMannings Forehead 27,502]

9 minutes ago, freefall said:

I noticed you did not mention NO in there so I went and look at just their basic stats PPG, and as much as we might not like NO or Sean Payton, we have to respect what they have done on offense.  They have a top 10 scoring offense every year this decade except for 2010 when they were 11th.  That was the only year since Ryan came into the league back in 2008 NO did not have a top 10 scoring offense.  In that same span they have a top 5 scoring offense 8 times!  Truly remarkable if you think about it.   

I didn’t mention them because Payton has kept his key guys largely in tact — led by Pete Carmichael — who seems to function as his left brain — has been there since 2009.

[freefall 726]

3 minutes ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

I didn’t mention them because Payton has kept his key guys largely in tact — led by Pete Carmichael — who seems to function as his left brain — has been there since 2009.

I know.  I was just curios about them since I saw your post because I don't remember any offensive coach from NO ever get hired elsewhere.  I just wanted to see what it was like to have a true offensive HC who actually call the plays.  I think Andy Reid is another one who called his own plays?  Guys like that if we ever could get one then we would not be afraid of taking major step back on offense(or defense if we get one who also call his own plays).  Man NO is very lucky in getting Payton and Brees when they did.  Look like we got the QB part but not the HC to go along with it.

[PeytonMannings Forehead 27,502]

12 minutes ago, duckhoa said:

Always enjoy your insight Forehead.

I would say that we have already failed with a defensive head coach...x2. 

Smitty was a solid DC and Quin was a top notch DC when they were hired as HC, and both failed to give us a top notch D.

The strength of our team is Ryan and Julio (and that offensive line next year).  

Let's give them some stability.  

I would love to see Ryan with the same offensive system for the next 4-5 years, to finish his career.

 

I get your point but we also failed with Petrino.

And to the stability argument— that was the point of the thread. There isn’t going to be stability if we have success. Those key offensive assistants who will have had a huge hand in any success we have will get poached just like they do everywhere else and when that happens your production and team chemistry is going to suffer.

[SPITFIRE 999]

In that "The Art of Coaching" video on HBO Bellicheck and Saban mentioned a mutual respect and understanding that if one of their guys gets hired to move on they are not allowed to take people with them. Echo's your point and adds a exclamation point to how we let go of Shanny and the QB coach... just silly 

 

[atljbo 21,355]

To me the best situation is if your Genius HC is behind your success... So regardless of whatever happens.. You don't lose that when teams feed off your staff when u have success...

 

The hoody can lose his DC (and not name a DC) because he is the main source behind it... The same with Andy Reed,Sean "them pills" Payton, Shanny and a couple of other elite play callers..

 

Again its not a must but I think that's the best situations because ppl will grab off your staff when your successful

[Boise Falcon Fan 4,027]

3 minutes ago, atljbo said:

To me the best situation is if your Genius HC is behind your success... So regardless of whatever happens.. You don't lose that when teams feed off your staff when u have success...

 

The hoody can lose his DC (and not name a DC) because he is the main source behind it... The same with Andy Reed,Sean "them pills" Payton, Shanny and a couple of other elite play callers..

 

Again its not a must but I think that's the best situations because ppl will grab off your staff when your successful

So your saying that DQ is not a genius...

[atljbo 21,355]

4 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

So your saying that DQ is not a genius...

Never said that... But if we are going to talk about it..

 

I was HUGE on coach Quinn taking over... I loved it... I thought we would get that top 10 D

 

But the facts are we went 1-7 and our D was epicly bad until he passed over the play calling.... I will give him props for putting aside his ego and putting guys in position who are succeeding.

 

The problem is.. . We went 1-7 .... I can't not get over that... IDC how good of a coach I think Quinn is.