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Moving On From Dan Quinn


vel
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The Falcons are currently 5-9. It is impossible for them to make the playoffs. Second year in a row. Going into this season, the Falcons were poised for a playoff push. DQ had taken over the defense. A lot of coaching experience was added to the offense (Koetter, Mularkey). The team was healthy again. Heavy investments were made on the OL to protect Matt Ryan and have a rushing attack. This was a roster with few holes. Many pre-season predictions were 10 wins. 

8 weeks into the season and the Falcons were 1-7. They looked embarrassing in several games. Against teams they should not have, like the Colts, Titans, and Cardinals. Coaching was atrocious. It looked like they had no clue who they were playing nor who was on their own team to use. It was a plain ole cluster. 

Post bye, we've learned that coaching roles were shifted for the better of the team. Since the bye week, the Falcons are 4-2, on pace for a realistic 6-2 finish with multiple impressive wins. The tide for some, myself included admittedly, has begun to change in favor of a potential return of Dan Quinn in 2020. 

Then I woke up. 

Dan Quinn needs to go. For multiple reasons, that remain unchanged regardless of the finish of this season:

#1 He was hired to bring a top tier defense to Atlanta for once. The Falcons have not finished above #22 in defensive DVOA since 2012. That includes ALL of DQ's time here. That includes the "Top Ten" 2017 defense that was a farce all season long. They've been ordinary more times than not. Even with some top level talent on the team. He didn't succeed at the one job he was brought here to do, and that's an indictment on his coaching. They never even got to be an average unit. That's a shame. 

#2 He's behind the times on analytics. There is a wave right now that is showing who's been swimming naked on this front, and it's revealing a lot. The teams behind on analytics are getting crushed. Ron Rivera was one and he's already lost his job. DQ is another and should be losing his job. The Panthers kept Rivera after multiple mediocre seasons because of a SB appearance back in 2015. They held on too long and ultimately fired him when it should have happened a while ago. DQ should suffer the same fate, just sooner. The Falcons need to get ahead of the analytics curve or risk wasting even more of Matt's remaining time in the NFL. 

#3 The biggest one for me is his supreme loyalty to the players, which I believe will prevent any meaningful roster churn if he's kept around. Prime example: Vic Beasley. Vic should not be a Falcon. Plain and simple. If they were truly offered a third round pick last year at the trade deadline, that should have been made immediately. Without question. It wasn't because DQ's pride/ego got in the way and he believed he could change Vic. That means he'll feel that way about other players, which will hinder the cap and roster turnover. Even if Vic signs elsewhere, he's not netting a third round comp pick. Poor return on investment. Beyond that, TD is most likely gone, which means a new GM will come in and put his eye on a roster he has no loyalties to. Guys like Freeman and Trufant should be moved, yet with DQ around, he'd most likely go to bat to keep them because they are his guys. Even if they are underperforming vs their cap. He didn't ask for guys like Carpenter, Brown, or Sambrailo to be paid like they were, so I can't blame him. But there will be tough decisions that need to be made with this current roster that I don't believe he will be able to make with a new GM. 

I appreciate everything DQ brought to this team. But he is not the man for the job going forward. He's got glaring flaws that I believe can be upgraded upon. If we keep DQ, we're only delaying the inevitable while also wasting precious time. Thanks for the SB run. Thanks for the slogans and the "juice". But go be a DC somewhere. Your time as HC for the Falcons is coming to an end in two weeks. It was fun. 

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Good perspective. The only thing I think you're a tad too harsh on is his defensive building skills. You mentioned "they could never get to average" and I don't agree with that. They are average right now. They were average in 2017. They were arguably above average in the 2nd half of 2016. I've seen flashes of great stuff from Quinn's defense that I've never seen in the entire Matt Ryan era. The problem is consistency. 

Agree on everything else though

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If the team loves Dan and he has the support of  Matty and Julio, then AB is not going to make a change. AB respects two of his Captain feedback. This is the key for any team because the players need to respect their head coach to move forward.

DQ and TD will be back next season. We as fans need to respect the process and what the players want.

On the bright side, I really see this team developing toughness from this disappointing season. Next season, the schedule should also be much friendlier than this season. 
 

 

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His biggest downfall will be his off season decision making with regards to coaches.To me that’s what’s absolutely buried this team.

Doug Mallory anyone.

Dan Quinn himself coaching this defense he backed himself put archaic experience on the other side and we can see the results.

For me I’m not so worried about the players it’s clear if coached correctly this team can win as seen by those 2 victories against the best in the NFC away from home.

I just can’t get past ill discipline and coaching they’ve been present from the jump and especially the last 2 years.I really think they’ve hampered the team when it’s come to complimentary football and synching all 3 phases together.

If I’m thee owner I’m not getting seduced by what’s happening with regards to the 2nd half of the season I’m thanking Quinn for his service and possibly the GM aswell.

If it’s time it’s time.

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Dan Quinn and TD are not the problem.. AB is not a dummy !!! Why fire what is good about this team,, you'll be going backward instead of Forward.! All we need is to fire the OC and getting one that knows what he is doing... Not just any O#C ,, but a top mind with a lot of exsperience .and one that has had success where ever he has been. That's all we need,, except for a great Draft.. And never take OL in the Draft, get proven OL in FACy. And everything else in the draft. Yes!! I know I'm repeating myself.. ON purpose! Hopeing that TD peeks in on our thoughts.

 

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He needs to have someone on staff to help him know when to call timeouts, and sometimes he still fux it up. He's in over his head. He's basically an overpaid cheerleader at this point. The fact that the D improved overnight as soon as he distanced himself from it...I mean, yikes. He needs to GTFOH RTFN.

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18 minutes ago, Draftnut57 said:

Dan Quinn and TD are not the problem.. AB is not a dummy !!! Why fire what is good about this team,, you'll be going backward instead of Forward.! All we need is to fire the OC and getting one that knows what he is doing... Not just any O#C ,, but a top mind with a lot of exsperience .and one that has had success where ever he has been. That's all we need,, except for a great Draft.. And never take OL in the Draft, get proven OL in FACy. And everything else in the draft. Yes!! I know I'm repeating myself.. ON purpose! Hopeing that TD peeks in on our thoughts.

 

I don't want to keep Quinn and get a top notch OC only to see him gone in 2 years and back to square 1.  Beside, why do you want to keep a defensive minded HC who defense has been bad 3 out of 5 years?  These defensive players are Quinn and TD guys so who fault is it that they are average 2015, bad 2016, good 2017, bad 2018, and bad 2019?  Don't just look at the second half of 2019.  Dan Quinn was here the whole time.

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3 minutes ago, freefall said:

I don't want to keep Quinn and get a top notch OC only to see him gone in 2 years and back to square 1.  Beside, why do you want to keep a defensive minded HC who defense has been bad 3 out of 5 years?  These defensive players are Quinn and TD guys so who fault is it that they are average 2015, bad 2016, good 2017, bad 2018, and bad 2019?  Don't just look at the second half of 2019.  Dan Quinn was here the whole time.

I know that AB is to smart to not see that things are already turning around ,, and all we need is the Right Bright O# minded OC.. Don't fire what is good about the team ,, just fix the flat,, not try to over haul the Motor that is still running just fine.. All we need is the right OC .... Don't fix what's not broke. If they do that we will be backing up and not going forward.

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2 minutes ago, Draftnut57 said:

I know that AB is to smart to not see that things are already turning around ,, and all we need is the Right Bright O# minded OC.. Don't fire what is good about the team ,, just fix the flat,, not try to over haul the Motor that is still running just fine.. All we need is the right OC .... Don't fix what's not broke. If they do that we will be backing up and not going forward.

Inconsistent and ill discipline how has DQ fixed this over the years mate.

Poor coaching hires across the board the team can’t over come DQs good vs his bad.This is the issue you face if you continue down the DQ track.He’s had 2 very bad years with this.At what point does AB continue to understand DQ is what he is.Why all of a sudden is he going to change.

The team has struggled for an identity the last 2 years fast & physical was the catch cry where’s that gone.We see it sporadically like the good DQ shows every now and then.

DQ as a HC for me is the equivalent of rocks or diamonds and it feels like he’s looking for a pot of gold under a rainbow.

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1 hour ago, Geaux_Falcons said:

The only thing I would nitpick in your argument is the analytics portion. From everything I've know and seen, the Falcons, particularly with TD & Quinn, have been on the forefront you mentioned when it comes to analytics. 

DQ finally got a clock management guy to help, but they really aren't leading in the analytics department from the coaching perspective. Not to the degree of Baltimore for example. 

51 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Good perspective. The only thing I think you're a tad too harsh on is his defensive building skills. You mentioned "they could never get to average" and I don't agree with that. They are average right now. They were average in 2017. They were arguably above average in the 2nd half of 2016. I've seen flashes of great stuff from Quinn's defense that I've never seen in the entire Matt Ryan era. The problem is consistency. 

Agree on everything else though

2017 was 22nd in DVOA. It seemed average because we've grown accustom to trash defenses. They also played a very cupcake schedule of offenses. Like you said, we've seen flashes. What that defense did in the playoffs in 2017 was top tier stuff. They held the Rams and Eagles to way below their season averages, yet struggled with the Dolphins and Bills in the same season. 

Inconsistent. Never finished above average for a full season. Mike Smith did that twice and was less heralded. 

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26 minutes ago, Draftnut57 said:

I know that AB is to smart to not see that things are already turning around ,, and all we need is the Right Bright O# minded OC.. Don't fire what is good about the team ,, just fix the flat,, not try to over haul the Motor that is still running just fine.. All we need is the right OC .... Don't fix what's not broke. If they do that we will be backing up and not going forward.

I would agree with you if Quinn defense has been good since he been here, but for the most part his side of the ball has been a major part of why he is only a couple games above .500.  If his defense has been as good as the offense I am sure his record would have been much better.  After the season there will be players come and go.  Do you trust Quinn to be able to keep things going with new players or do something else to screw up half of the season in 2020 again?  I just don't trust the man to figure things out in a timely manner if things are not working.

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1 hour ago, kiwifalcon said:

His biggest downfall will be his off season decision making with regards to coaches.To me that’s what’s absolutely buried this team.

Doug Mallory anyone.

Dan Quinn himself coaching this defense he backed himself put archaic experience on the other side and we can see the results.

For me I’m not so worried about the players it’s clear if coached correctly this team can win as seen by those 2 victories against the best in the NFC away from home.

I just can’t get past ill discipline and coaching they’ve been present from the jump and especially the last 2 years.I really think they’ve hampered the team when it’s come to complimentary football and synching all 3 phases together.

If I’m thee owner I’m not getting seduced by what’s happening with regards to the 2nd half of the season I’m thanking Quinn for his service and possibly the GM aswell.

If it’s time it’s time.

This rt here!!  I’ve said it over and over.....lack of discipline, lack of attention to details and it also appears lack of internal accountability w players. Those issues will haunt us w DQ.  Love the man but gotta have the whole enchilada to be consistently great!!  

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1 hour ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Good perspective. The only thing I think you're a tad too harsh on is his defensive building skills. You mentioned "they could never get to average" and I don't agree with that. They are average right now. They were average in 2017. They were arguably above average in the 2nd half of 2016. I've seen flashes of great stuff from Quinn's defense that I've never seen in the entire Matt Ryan era. The problem is consistency. 

Agree on everything else though

I agree with much of what Vel says, but the defense in 2013 & 2014 allowed around 27ppg. Quinn dropped that to 21 ppg in 2015.  
 

And in 2017, we only allowed two teams to score more than 23 points.  That’s good defense...I don’t care what the DVOA says. 
 

But if you can upgrade Quinn...a clear upgrade.  Do it. Stefanski & Shaw seem like the two atm

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I admit I have no clue who should fill what position for this team, but I'm done with the current regime.  

They're just too inconsistent and when you only get 16 shots to win, you can't handle losing streaks.  

Clean house and get some hopefully more consistent coaching with an eye toward fundamentals and above all...eliminating mistakes.  This has been the sloppiest Falcon team in about the past two decades. 

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18 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I agree with much of what Vel says, but the defense in 2013 & 2014 allowed around 27ppg. Quinn dropped that to 21 ppg in 2015.  
 

And in 2017, we only allowed two teams to score more than 23 points.  That’s good defense...I don’t care what the DVOA says. 
 

But if you can upgrade Quinn...a clear upgrade.  Do it. Stefanski & Shaw seem like the two atm

And Vic Beasley is a good pass rusher because he had 16 sacks that one year. Even though he was bottom tier in pressures and QB hits. 

When you only look in absolutes like that and ignore the story, that's how you end up in the mess we're in now. 

What's the better performance:

Holding the Dolphins, who averaged 14 ppg at the time played them, to 21 points 

OR

Holding the Rams, who averaged 30 ppg the whole season, to 13 points

Neither scored more than 23 points. One scored 150% of the season average while the other scored 43%. 

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Momentum is great and everything, but if you were asked prior to the season if the Falcons win between 5 & 6 games whilst remaining relatively healthy should Quinn keep his job - 99% of this board would have said no.

Forget the last few games, when we've had nothing to lose, this season has been a disaster. That's on Quinn.

I wish him all the best. He certainly deserves another shot elsewhere, but he should not be the HC of this team in 2020.

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Sorry Vel, but I just can't overlook the dramatic improvement we've seen on the defensive side of the ball the last 6 games and what it has allowed them to do. I mean they scored road wins over the Saints and 49ers and two very high powered offenses far below their season average. That has to account for something. Why isn't there a chance to carry that over to 2020 now that we've got the right coaches, scheme and players in place on that side of the ball? Why blow it up now when we're finally living up to our potential? 49ers only scored 22 points and would have probably had less than that if it weren't for two horrible roughing the passer calls that extended drives.

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5 minutes ago, Smiler11 said:

Momentum is great and everything, but if you were asked prior to the season if the Falcons win between 5 & 6 games whilst remaining relatively healthy should Quinn keep his job - 99% of this board would have said no.

Forget the last few games, when we've had nothing to lose, this season has been a disaster. That's on Quinn.

I wish him all the best. He certainly deserves another shot elsewhere, but he should not be the HC of this team in 2020.

This is simply not true. Falcons are near the top of the NFL in terms of players on IR and have had numerous starters miss games this year.

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2 hours ago, RazorWing said:

Fire Td. Bring in ed dobbs colts asst gm or mike boganzi dir of football ops( kansas city).

Let them sit down with quinn to discuss the direction of the team. If quinn isnt on the same page with them. Im sure quinn is fired.

 

 

I agree, but honestly I think it's too late.  If we fire TD at the end of the season and we have done nothing to line up a replacement, we first have to hire a GM.  Then the GM has to assess whether to fire the current staff.  Then, if they do go that route, we're way behind the 8-ball on getting a new coach, and the coach will be behind the 8-ball in terms of putting his own staff together, doing the offensive and defensive installations, etc.

I want TD gone personally.  But at this point, I think if we want another coach next season, or if we even think we might, we have to either fire TD now and start the search, or just roll with a new coach.  Much as it pains me to say it.

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17 minutes ago, AUTiger7222 said:

This is simply not true. Falcons are near the top of the NFL in terms of players on IR and have had numerous starters miss games this year.

Show me? Outside of Neal going down early, every single significant starter has been healthy most of the year. Sure if you want to count the likes of Kurt Benkert, Alex Gray, Richie Brown etc. then the numbers might look inflated, but those guys were unlikely to even see the field, let alone be significant contributors. Night and day from last year. 

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Here's the one thing that consistently nags at me when I think about keeping him -- who will run the offense next season?  Koetter?  Man, you'd better take the handcuffs off and let him do his thing.  Someone else?  Who?  Stefanski is locked up.  McVay is a HC, and so is LaFleur.  Mike McDaniel isn't coming here to be the OC.  So who do we hire to run it.

Knapp?  Yes, I'm serious.  I'd be down.  I wish they'd done this at the bye honestly.

If it's going to stay the same old, same old on offense, I think we have to move on.  If we have a legit plan to get someone who can stick a pin up his *** with a handful of grease, that's another matter.  If it's the same guys, I'm not confident to say the least.

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13 minutes ago, Smiler11 said:

Show me? Outside of Neal going down early, every single significant starter has been healthy most of the year. Sure if you want to count the likes of Kurt Benkert, Alex Gray, Richie Brown etc. then the numbers might look inflated, but those guys were unlikely to even see the field, let alone be significant contributors. Night and day from last year. 

Our starting QB (Ryan), RB (Freeman), WR (Ridley), TE (Hooper), RG (Lindstrom), RT (McCary), DE (McKinley), CB (Trufant) have all missed games this year. That's just right off the top of my head without even having to look it up.

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