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KS, Sark and DK


falconsd56
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So I see a lot of  hand wringing about DK.

I get it  some people do not like DK.but I thought I would  address some the  Hints, Allegations and things left unsaid ( great  CD by Collective Soul btw) regarding our much maligned OC.....  Trashing  our OC is nothing new. It is a time honored tradition From Greg Knapp to Mike Mularky, to DK, To  Sark...  and yes even to boy wonder Kyle Shannahan... Fire__________ is a tradition that will never die, I have seen this fan base basely  bash  ball  coaches  a billion times.....biggly.  It would not be football season without armchair qbs  in their moms basement ( not that there is anything wrong with that)  calling every call that does not work a bad call... regardless of what it was.

 

Alliteration aside  When you look at the actual raw numbers of  each mans first year here you will see that    DK actually has been more productive as a play caller.... yeah  I know.. Facts and stuff... who needs them when you have personal bias , conjecture, and a madden level knowledge of football!

 

Note... I know this will not change anyone's mind because that really does not happen here.....once a player or coach  gets a certain stink on them... it never really goes away... no matter how well they play or coach after that.

I chose to focus on Points scored because of 2 reasons.

A: It fits the agenda that I am pushing ( this is  most important)

2. I focus on points because at the end of the day  there is only one thing that matters... The Scoreboard... Did you score one more point than the opposing teem when the clock hit zero.... that is what matters ,Everything  else is fluff....which unfortunately for 2 of the seasons that I will be examining , the Falcons fell woefully short as a team.. too much fluffer and not enough nutter.

 

Here is  KS's overall history as a play caller

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/ShanKy0.htm

 

                                                                     

I highlighted 2015 and the scoring ranks as I will do  for 2017 and 2019

The falcons finished  21st  in scoring  and 5th in yards en-route to

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/atl/2015.htm

We scored 20 or less  8 times.... literally half of the season.  we scored 10 points or less 2 times ,and we actually got shut out once... That panther game was painful to watch....almost as  painful to watch  as Cams wardrobe choices   in his post game press conferences.

We score 30 points in a game twice. and were 26th in the nfl in giveaways.

I am sure I will hear the tired old response... " his system works it just takes time  all the motion  confuses teams!!!".... Ok cool  Then why  in the 12 years as a play caller has KS scoring offenses been below league average (16th or worse) EIGHT times...... EIGHT.. that is like a lot in relation to 12 years.

Now granted  the years that he has been above league average.... he has been well above league average 3 top 5 finishes including a  historic number 1  and a top 10 finish way back in 09. Still  for someone who is suppose to be the second coming of the "modern era of the nfl  play callers" His offenses have been...... kinda sucky.

Still though year 2 we went from  21st scoring to  1st. A jump that would not happen if fans had their way......People were ready to run him out of town on a spike after year 1. He got a lot of heat...As usual some of it was indeed was justified....But most was  most was not( As I type this I think Matt Ryan threw another interception to the Colts)

 

 

The guy who  came after him  had the most team success his first year... mostly because  he  had the best defense  by a long short behind him.... Still Sark  got all kinds of hate here.. some justified... most not.

 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/SarkSt0.htm#all_coaching_history

 

 

The falcons  were 8th in  and 15th in points en-route to

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/atl/2017.htm

We scored 20 or fewer points 7 times and scored 30+ 4 times while  being  9th in giveaways..  the 2017 offense was the unluckiest   offense I have seen in a long time with  5 or 6 of the flukiest ints that you would ever see.

We went  from 15th scoring to  being  top 10  in scoring in 2018 mostly because we cut down on the turnovers...  While I was not his biggest fan, I think he should have had another year but that is the life  in the nfl... I personally think Smitty should have gotten another year too... .so what do I know. :shrug:

 

On to DK... number 15  in  scoring but number 1 in  @vel & @athell's heart   ( Not calling you guys out.... just thought of you when  I was writing some of this.... you should feel special)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/KoetDi0.htm

 

 

As you can see DK has has some good offenses  himself... not the historic 2016  type offenses but some good  quality  well above average  offensive years.

Like KS  though... if you look at his entire career. he has had more below average years  than he has  above.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/atl/2019.htm

To this point we are 15th in scoring scoring  30+ points 3 times ( 29 two more  times).. interesting enough we are 1-2 in those  30+ point games.......just saying!. We are 10th  in yards and we have been held to 20 points or less 4 times and 10 points twice  and we are 20th in turnovers.

it is hard to be a top offense when you keep giving the ball to the other team...... especially when  the defense does not do a good enough job of getting the ball back for you.

The  killer for all 3 seasons have been turnovers.. Those cost us AT LEAST 3 games in  2015 & 17 and  they played a huge part in  at least 4 games or this year....Turnovers are bad Mmmkay

I have also seen the annoying comment of the falcons needing a "modern"  nfl offensive coordinator ... which is  both ignorant and lazy considering we use some of the same concepts as  pretty much everyone else. even   when  our own fans do not see it. True story : .In the game thread yesterday I saw someone say that DK does not know how to use  stack formations...Literally 2 minutes after the falcons ran  multiple plays with.... stack formations.
 

Side note:

Here is where some of the  teams with  " modern nfl play callers" rank in terms of point scored.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/table/passing/sort/totalPointsPerGame/dir/desc

 

Notice the Texans with the mobile QB and the "modern  nfl  offense"... They are scoring a whopping....  .9 points more per game

Philadelphia eagles... " innovators"  (  rip off artists.. potatoes- grapefruit...same thing) of the RPO.. along with the  Philly Philly ....aka Riggs play for the underrated  classic  "Still hot Kathy Ireland kicks a football"....err I mean Necessary Roughness( you should go watch it).....They are scoring a whopping .4 more points than the Falcons

La Rams....  Sean McVay  is the poster child  for " modern nfl head coach: I have seen  words like "unique"  "Innovative " " Gets carded when he buys  beer at Ralphs" get used to describe him. He has  first round talent all around the offense...It has  huge many deals to wr, QB, and Running back who only plays 45% of the snaps..... They averaging an incredible .2 points  more than the Falcons..... Maybe we can get lucky like the Bangles and hire a guy who passed McVay in the hallway once so that we  can score 15 points a game....one can dream.

Green bay Packers...  Home of the greatest qb to ever grace a state farm commercial... and Aaron Rogers .They are averaging a whopping .1 points per game...... That is about as close as Arron Rogers mustache trim..

Cleveland Browns..Just a helmet swing and a miss behind the Falcons averaging 2.3 LESS than the falcons.

Chicago Bears and  Nagy... who is a disciple of Andy Reid. who's offense is another poster child for the "modern nfl".. averaging 5.2 points less than the Falcons.

Btw   I hope these " modern nfl  play callers" have  " modern nfl couches... because that is exactly where most of  they will be come the playoffs

" But if those guys had  Ryan and Jones........"  They don't ... KS did and still ranked  worse than where we are now and do you know why??? An interception is an interception regardless of the name on  the jersey of the guy who threw it... a fumble is a fumble regardless of the name of the guy  who fumbles...  calling a pass play when you can just run the ball and ice the game ..... Well you get my point.

 

To wrap this up..... I don't know if  DK will be back next year..... I hope he does I am in the minority  in hoping that he is . I hope that he is but recognize He is not perfect.... He has his faults like every play caller in the nfl but   some of the ignorance and strait up hate  towards the guy is not warranted... just like it was not warranted  vs KS  in 2015 or Sark in 2017...   as it probably wont be for  the new guy  we will probably will have in 2020 when  guys   take time to adjust to yet another  system...... Look for Volume 2 of this post in about 12 months Because lord knows  as soon as the team struggles at some point  the peanut gallery  will be  boiling over with comments about how  he should have done X when he did Y....and when he does do Y... then he should have went with X.... but to a different direction than the first time..

 

Just to drop this nugget.  DK >>> KS head to head  ;) ( look it up)

That is enough word salad for the evening.... Good night.

 

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4 hours ago, kiwifalcon said:

If he’s not in front he’s too easy to defend it’s very noticeable.

Even when behind never give up running the football.

Sark had his issues in the red zone.

KS was the full package.

Why do you just make stuff up?

Sark was 64% in the redzone in 2018. Kyles historic offense was 64.5%. Both VERY high in the league.

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Koetter's numbers are pretty middling. Ever notice how he does real well the first year he is with a team (2007, 2012, 2015) then it's all down hill from there. The only year that doesn't work out that way is 2018 Tampa, but that year got him fired.

I do find it interesting that the 2019 Falcons are a better redzone team than the 2019 49ers.

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If DK wasn't awful, people wouldn't hate him so much. The offense is seriously close to unwatchable.

I just want a team that runs the ball well and shows some creativity. Pretty sure most of the people on TATF would be cool with that too. Don't think it's asking for much.

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1 hour ago, Jesus said:

Koetter's numbers are pretty middling. Ever notice how he does real well the first year he is with a team (2007, 2012, 2015) then it's all down hill from there. The only year that doesn't work out that way is 2018 Tampa, but that year got him fired.

I do find it interesting that the 2019 Falcons are a better redzone team than the 2019 49ers.

So are Shannahan's as a whole.

And DK actually did well here in 2014 when you consider we lost an entire offensive line...and actually had to use Toilolo as an offensive tackle.

The falcons finished 12th in scoring despite the line struggles and injuries all across the offense

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41 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

If DK wasn't awful, people wouldn't hate him so much. The offense is seriously close to unwatchable.

I just want a team that runs the ball well and shows some creativity. Pretty sure most of the people on TATF would be cool with that too. Don't think it's asking for much.

Same thing was said in 2015.

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I get you argument D56, but Dirk is like Smitty to me, this version of the NFL is not the version they succeeded in previously. This offense looks like they are trying to pass a fart while not trying to shlt themselves at the same time. It's difficult for no reason. Too much talent. Too little play action. Not helping his OL a lick. Basic stuff. He runs an overly difficult offense for no reason other than because he has a QB who can. That's why I liked Kyle. His offense is very elementary and includes a TON of stuff to keep his QB comfortable. Look at Kevin Stefanski in relation. Kirk Cousins looks better than Matt Ryan because he's given a ton of easy reads and throws. 

Dirk's got to go. Plain and simple. 

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4 minutes ago, vel said:

I get you argument D56, but Dirk is like Smitty to me, this version of the NFL is not the version they succeeded in previously. This offense looks like they are trying to pass a fart while not trying to shlt themselves at the same time. It's difficult for no reason. Too much talent. Too little play action. Not helping his OL a lick. Basic stuff. He runs an overly difficult offense for no reason other than because he has a QB who can. That's why I liked Kyle. His offense is very elementary and includes a TON of stuff to keep his QB comfortable. Look at Kevin Stefanski in relation. Kirk Cousins looks better than Matt Ryan because he's given a ton of easy reads and throws. 

Dirk's got to go. Plain and simple. 

Stefanski is my coach crush....

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1 minute ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Stefanski is my coach crush....

The reason I'm more for Stefanski too is his apt to use analytics. Teams are getting left behind very quickly that aren't using them. It leads to poor decisions like keeping Vic, thinking his All Pro season was sustainable even though all of the analytics pointed to it being false. Dan Quinn is like Ron Rivera, guys who are fine coaches but being lapped because they lack innovative thinking. 

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2 minutes ago, vel said:

The reason I'm more for Stefanski too is his apt to use analytics. Teams are getting left behind very quickly that aren't using them. It leads to poor decisions like keeping Vic, thinking his All Pro season was sustainable even though all of the analytics pointed to it being false. Dan Quinn is like Ron Rivera, guys who are fine coaches but being lapped because they lack innovative thinking. 

I still have some love for Quinn., can’t help it.  I’m loyal like that.

But Stefanski getting 28 ppg from that offense by having no recognizable tendencies.  His self scouting is intense.  Keeps defenses completely off balance.  Imagine what he could do with this offense

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Just now, FalconsIn2012 said:

I still have some love for Quinn., can’t help it.  I’m loyal like that.

But Stefanski getting 28 ppg from that offense by having no recognizable tendencies.  His self scouting is intense.  Keeps defenses completely off balance.  Imagine what he could do with this offense

Exactly. Self scouting has sunk this team. I don't trust in their ability to self scout themselves nor the opponent consistently. It was atrocious all year. Just look at what the Saints did to the Colts defense last night while we struggled earlier in the season. Same soft zone coverages. Maddening. 

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That's a lot to read but I personally defended both Shanny and Sark while many others wanted them both gone and foolishly defended the Koetter hire because my rose colored glasses convinced me otherwise.

I don't want DK anywhere near this offense next year.  Said it before, will say it again, square peg round hole.  Let's not waste another year of Matt and Julio.

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6 minutes ago, athell said:

That's a lot to read but I personally defended both Shanny and Sark while many others wanted them both gone and foolishly defended the Koetter hire because my rose colored glasses convinced me otherwise.

I don't want DK anywhere near this offense next year.  Said it before, will say it again, square peg round hole.  Let's not waste another year of Matt and Julio.

I defended DK because I anticipated him at least leaning into Kyle's offense and where the league was going. Instead, he dug into what he does even though it didn't fit what was built here. Once I saw that happen, I was over it. 

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13 minutes ago, athell said:

That's a lot to read but I personally defended both Shanny and Sark while many others wanted them both gone and foolishly defended the Koetter hire because my rose colored glasses convinced me otherwise.

I don't want DK anywhere near this offense next year.  Said it before, will say it again, square peg round hole.  Let's not waste another year of Matt and Julio.

 

On 12/8/2019 at 4:56 PM, FalconsIn2012 said:

 

3itt1d.jpg
 


Clearly 2019 was all about firsts.  We wanted to be the first to prove a round peg does indeed fit into a square circle.  Examples:

Offensive Line:  we have an OL built for outside zone.  Do we sign Koetter and spend our FA money on two OG’s who are power inside zone guys.  They struggle and lack the athleticism to reach second level on outside zone.  Results: can’t run inside or outside zone.  Today we go with Goni, Wes & Lindstrom and big shocker, both inside and outside zone is effective.  Round peg into square circle.  Fail

Defense: we have drafted for years to get fast one gap defenders.  Perfect for Quinn’s 4-3 Under.  For some reason we move to odd man fronts and lacked the personnel to be effective.  Results: 30 ppg thru 8 games.  Transition to 4-3 Under after the bye and we are allowing just 18 ppg in 5 games.  Round peg into square circle.  Fail

Coaching Fits: we are built to run a WCO utilizing heavy play action.  So we hire Koetter who has no WCO pedigree.  Hand him the playbook and ask him to learn it and call it.  Koetter also doesn’t use PA and runs lots of shotgun.  Big shocker, our offense has been the very definition of inconsistent & choppy.  Round peg into square circle.  Fail

 

Conclusion:  I am thrilled we won.  But games like this just piss me off cause trying to force a round peg into a square wasted a year that had special potential

 

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Most people fondly think of KS as an OC time here.  I just remember he wasn't that good before he came here.  A lot of people did not like the hire back in 2015.  As for DK I think he could do a better job at balancing out the offense between run and pass, but I also think he got hosed the first 8 weeks of the season with how bad the defense played and how often/quickly the Falcons would be down by double digits.  Most of the time the offense and defense successes can go hand in hand, and when one side of the ball is doing a terrible job it can also affect the other side of the ball by putting a lot of pressure on them to bail the other side out.  Falcons offense has not been good enough to do so like they did in 2016. 

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13 minutes ago, vel said:

I defended DK because I anticipated him at least leaning into Kyle's offense and where the league was going. Instead, he dug into what he does even though it didn't fit what was built here. Once I saw that happen, I was over it. 

My problem is this.  With Shanny, even with Sark, I saw what the logic was.  I saw a scheme that was close but due to players not executing, some confusion about responsibilities and assignments, etc. which happens in new systems, but when I watched the offense, I never thought to myself "wow, this offense is completely neutered and set up to fail".  Even Sark and his dang jet sweeps, he had some great play designs and I saw a lot of good things.  I don't get that with DK.  I get an archaic offense that looks completely overmatched and a guy who is more concerned with running his scheme instead of utilizing the talent at his disposal.  It's especially painful because our offense us has carried us for so long.

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@falconsd56, I get your argument and appreciate the time you put into your write up.

Heres my argument on it. In both Kyle’s and Sark’s offenses, the errors that were made were often mental errors by the players themselves, not the OC. For instance, in 2015, we had several drives killed by Person botching a snap. In 2017, we led the league in dropped passes. Just stupid mistakes. Execution was the problem, not the playcalling. You could see the change and the potential with Shanahan. You are absolutely right that TATF completely overreacted to both OC’s in their first years. So it must mean the same for Koetter right? 
 

Well, that’s the problem. I don’t see those same mental errors under Koetter. The protection is atrocious because the plays are simply taking too long to develop on top of having absolutely no running game. Defenses know they can tee off on Ryan. That Thanksgiving game against the Saints was pathetic in terms of pass protection. This offense looks like crap because of Koetter. I don’t think it’s going to get better either unless we hit a home run on a running back this offseason

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