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Why Should We Lose - How Often Has a Very High Draft Pick Been That Great for the Falcons?


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Ignoring whether the win today was meaningful toward Dan Quinn's longevity, there is the question of its impact on our draft position.

Admittedly, our franchise QB Matt Ryan was #3 in the 2008 draft.  Likewise, other significant QB's in franchise history Steve Bartkowski and Michael Vick were #1 picks in their draft years.  We are not picking a QB high in this draft to my belief.

However, when it comes to top 5 picks, our real return on non-QB's has been minimal since 1975 with maybe Bill Fralic in 1985 (#2) and Deion Sanders in 1989 (#5) as true returns for the spot.  And, our return on top 6-10 picks has not been great except for perhaps Gerald Riggs at #9 in 1982 and Julio Jones at #6 in 2011.  Jake Matthews was #6 in 2014, but his play has been at slightly above average at most.  And, Vic Beasley, Lincoln Kennedy, Bruce Pickens, Aundray Bruce, Jamaal Anderson, Deangelo Hall, and others might have been questionable in the top 10.

On the other hand, our picks in the 10-20 range have been actually pretty good and some of our late round picks have also been good (Mike Kenn, Tim Green, Roddy White, Calvin Ridley, etc.).  Do we really need to endure lots of losing for a high draft pick if it is not really a guaranteed success based on prior history?

Atlanta Falcons first-round draft picks
Year Pick Player name Position
1966 1 Tommy Nobis * Linebacker
1966 15 Randy Johnson Quarterback
1967 No pick
1968 3 Claude Humphrey Defensive end
1969 2 George Kunz Offensive tackle
1970 12 John Small Linebacker
1971 7 Joe Profit Running back
1972 15 Clarence Ellis Safety
1973 No pick
1974 No pick
1975 1 Steve Bartkowski * Quarterback
1976 9 Bubba Bean Running back
1977 6 Warren Bryant Offensive tackle
1977 20 Wilson Faumuina Defensive tackle
1978 13 Mike Kenn Offensive tackle
1979 17 Don Smith Defensive end
1980 7 Junior Miller Tight end
1981 25 Bobby Butler Cornerback
1982 9 Gerald Riggs Running back
1983 16 Mike Pitts Defensive end
1984 9 Rick Bryan Defensive tackle
1985 2 Bill Fralic Offensive tackle
1986 2 Tony Casillas Defensive tackle
1986 17 Tim Green Linebacker
1987 12 Chris Miller Quarterback
1988 1 Aundray Bruce * Linebacker
1989 5 Deion Sanders Cornerback
1989 27 Shawn Collins Wide receiver
1990 20 Steve Broussard Running back
1991 3 Bruce Pickens Cornerback
1991 13 Mike Pritchard Wide receiver
1992 8 Bob Whitfield Offensive tackle
1992 19 Tony Smith Running back
1993 9 Lincoln Kennedy Offensive tackle
1994 No pick
1995 26 Devin Bush Sr. Safety
1996 No pick
1997 11 Michael Booker Cornerback
1998 12 Keith Brooking Linebacker
1999 30 Patrick Kerney Defensive end
2000 No pick
2001 1 Michael Vick * Quarterback
2002 18 T. J. Duckett Running back
2003 No pick
2004 8 DeAngelo Hall Cornerback
2004 29 Michael Jenkins Wide receiver
2005 27 Roddy White Wide receiver
2006 No pick
2007 8 Jamaal Anderson Defensive end
2008 3 Matt Ryan Quarterback
2008 21 Sam Baker Offensive tackle
2009 24 Peria Jerry Defensive tackle
2010 19 Sean Weatherspoon Linebacker
2011 6 Julio Jones Wide receiver
2012 No pick
2013 22 Desmond Trufant Cornerback
2014 6 Jake Matthews Offensive tackle
2015 8 Vic Beasley Outside Linebacker
2016 17 Keanu Neal Strong Safety
2017 26 Takkarist McKinley Defensive End
2018 26 Calvin Ridley Wide Receiver
2019 14 Chris Lindstrom Offensive Guard
2019 31 Kaleb McGary Offensive Tackle
Edited by jlrfalcon
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8 minutes ago, stizz said:

From your list, drafting in the top 10 is much better on our return than outside of it.

Keep this up and we will miss out on Derrick Brown the same way we did Oliver last year.

In all honesty that probably gone already especially when Chase young says he may stay in college. They could all have been gone before our pick even if we lost

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1 minute ago, FalconofShadows said:

In all honesty that probably gone already especially when Chase young says he may stay in college. They could all have been gone before our pick even if we lost

He could have just been saying that. His family is probably talking to him on the chance to take life altering money and not risk injury in college.

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i think it's crazy to call a top 10 pick wildly overrated.  we might not have done a great job in the past but we're much more likely to find elite talent there  

 we needed an elite draft and we just wrecked our chances since the next two games are relatively easy to win  we are picking at 12 at this point per tankathon  I really think we've once again screwed ourselves and will be forever a bit above average especially given our lack of money for free agents, aging players, etc.  I would have at least been really excited about the draft this year if we had a top 3-4 pick -- we could have even dropped down and picked up more picks    there is just nothing exciting about this team anymore unless your biggest qualification is winning the occasional 'exciting game' rather than championships  

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1 hour ago, stizz said:

From your list, drafting in the top 10 is much better on our return than outside of it.

Keep this up and we will miss out on Derrick Brown the same way we did Oliver last year.

The QB's are definitely better when we pick 1-10, but what other position group has really been that much better?

Picks 11-30 (30 total)     Picks 1-10 (24 total)  
Chris Miller Quarterback   Matt Ryan Quarterback
Randy Johnson Quarterback   Steve Bartkowski * Quarterback
      Michael Vick * Quarterback
T. J. Duckett Running back   Gerald Riggs Running back
Steve Broussard Running back   Bubba Bean Running back
Tony Smith Running back   Joe Profit Running back
Chris Lindstrom Offensive Guard   Bill Fralic Offensive tackle
Mike Kenn Offensive tackle   Warren Bryant Offensive tackle
Sam Baker Offensive tackle   Jake Matthews Offensive tackle
Kaleb McGary Offensive Tackle   Bob Whitfield Offensive tackle
      George Kunz Offensive tackle
      Lincoln Kennedy Offensive tackle
      Junior Miller Tight end
Roddy White Wide receiver   Julio Jones Wide receiver
Michael Jenkins Wide receiver      
Calvin Ridley Wide Receiver      
Shawn Collins Wide receiver      
Mike Pritchard Wide receiver      
Peria Jerry Defensive tackle   Rick Bryan Defensive tackle
Wilson Faumuina Defensive tackle   Tony Casillas Defensive tackle
Patrick Kerney Defensive end   Claude Humphrey Defensive end
Takkarist McKinley Defensive End   Jamaal Anderson Defensive end
Mike Pitts Defensive end      
Don Smith Defensive end      
Tim Green Linebacker   Tommy Nobis * Linebacker
Sean Weatherspoon Linebacker   Aundray Bruce * Linebacker
Keith Brooking Linebacker   Vic Beasley Outside Linebacker
John Small Linebacker      
Clarence Ellis Safety   Deion Sanders Cornerback
Desmond Trufant Cornerback   DeAngelo Hall Cornerback
Keanu Neal Strong Safety   Bruce Pickens Cornerback
Michael Booker Cornerback      
Bobby Butler Cornerback      
Devin Bush Sr. Safety      
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