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TheDirtyWordII

A TDWII Observation: The Panthers & Falcons Rebuilds Will Occur Side-by-Side, But…

125 posts in this topic

20 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

I've seen the advanced stats...I think they tell one story about the two.  And Ryan has always fared well with those, even if the teams he's led haven't.

But Rodgers 110-60-1 career record tells the other.  The career record that entails only two losing seasons (one his first year starting) v Ryan's 5 of the last 7 mark.

Ryan is very much respected player.  But Rodgers is significantly more feared.

I spend too much of my life defending Ryan. If you look at all the advanced stats and then start making arguments like total record, or "ethos" your clearly just not being rational... it is a team game. 

Ill make an augment beyond the stats. Matt Ryan is a better leader than ARod. Never quits, plays hard, doesn't throw teammates or coaches under the bus. Rodgers constantly looks dejected or just uninterested, and then the media jumps all over him when he uses his natural talent to make some miraculous 3rd and 23 play a few times a year. 

Ryan is not as naturally talented, probably just an average NFL talent, but works hard and plays with fire every snap. And beyond the analytics, which I favor, id rather root for that guy. 

https://theathletic.com/1200883/2019/10/16/no-longer-elite-what-the-numbers-tell-us-about-aaron-rodgers/

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7 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Except he would be 13 mil in dead money for 2021, 22 and 23 also..... Not exactly 'one dose' 

You can only spread dead cap out over a maximum of two seasons (the pre/post June 1 thing). In my scenario, I'd be willing to take on the dead cap hit in one year.  Teams are less and less worried about dead cap what with the salary cap increasing by $10-12M/season.  And if you're willing to take your hits upfront even if they're substantial, you can rectify poor cap management relatively quickly.

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2 minutes ago, TSprings said:

I spend too much of my life defending Ryan. If you look at all the advanced stats and then start making arguments like total record, or "ethos" your clearly just not being rational... it is a team game. 

Ill make an augment beyond the stats. Matt Ryan is a better leader than ARod. Never quits, plays hard, doesn't throw teammates or coaches under the bus. Rodgers constantly looks dejected or just uninterested, and then the media jumps all over him when he uses his natural talent to make some miraculous 3rd and 23 play a few times a year. 

Ryan is not as naturally talented, probably just an average NFL talent, but works hard and plays with fire every snap. And beyond the analytics, which I favor, id rather root for that guy. 

https://theathletic.com/1200883/2019/10/16/no-longer-elite-what-the-numbers-tell-us-about-aaron-rodgers/

I don't think I'm trying to besmirch Ryan's career at all...just pointing out facts with regard to the Falcons performance over the last 7 years and the fact that if you're a GM/HC potential hire, is a 35 year old QB the type of centerpiece you'd be willing to take on with a franchise that's either under-performed the last two seasons or whose talent base is overrated AND either way, is in salary cap ****.

We're about to embark on the most significant franchise facelift the Falcons have seen since Bobby Petrino left.  Somebody needs to ask the tough questions.

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7 minutes ago, TSprings said:

I spend too much of my life defending Ryan. If you look at all the advanced stats and then start making arguments like total record, or "ethos" your clearly just not being rational... it is a team game.

Exactly. 

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3 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

I don't think I'm trying to besmirch Ryan's career at all...just pointing out facts with regard to the Falcons performance over the last 7 years and the fact that if you're a GM/HC potential hire, is a 35 year old QB the type of centerpiece you'd be willing to take on with a franchise that's either under-performed the last two seasons or whose talent base is overrated AND either way, is in salary cap ****.

We're about to embark on the most significant franchise facelift the Falcons have seen since Bobby Petrino left.  Somebody needs to ask the tough questions.

Fine. I will disagree and say having Ryan puts us to the top of the list for any potential HC/OC hire. If your an OC, he has made 3 OC into HCs. If your a HC you can use your high(ish) draft picks to pick players you want without having to worry about a QB.  

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5 minutes ago, vel said:

Exactly. 

 

13 minutes ago, TSprings said:

I spend too much of my life defending Ryan. If you look at all the advanced stats and then start making arguments like total record, or "ethos" your clearly just not being rational... it is a team game. 

It's funny...rewind back to 2012 and all you saw in this place were Ryan's come from behind/game-winning drive and career record stats.  How things come full circle...

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19 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

Except he would be 13 mil in dead money for 2021, 22 and 23 also..... Not exactly 'one dose' 

All dead money accelerates and is on the books the year player X is traded or released.  

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3 minutes ago, TSprings said:

Fine. I will disagree and say having Ryan puts us to the top of the list for any potential HC/OC hire. If your an OC, he has made 3 OC into HCs. If your a HC you can use your high(ish) draft picks to pick players you want without having to worry about a QB.  

So let's take a look at Ryan's regular stats in the years he's had an OC for the first year.

2015 (Shanahan): 407/614 4591 21:16
2017 (Sark): 342/529 4095 20:12
2019: (Koetter): 321/481 3559 22:12

...am I off-base to think that with a new OC in tow (not to mention whole new everything/everyone), 2020 may not be a great year for Ryan?  And if so, now you're banking on things clicking when he's 36?

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13 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

I don't think I'm trying to besmirch Ryan's career at all...just pointing out facts with regard to the Falcons performance over the last 7 years and the fact that if you're a GM/HC potential hire, is a 35 year old QB the type of centerpiece you'd be willing to take on with a franchise that's either under-performed the last two seasons or whose talent base is overrated AND either way, is in salary cap ****.

We're about to embark on the most significant franchise facelift the Falcons have seen since Bobby Petrino left.  Somebody needs to ask the tough questions.

If you want to advocate moving on from Ryan, there is a better way to go about it.  I’ve tried it in my Joe Burrow thread,  Even that very  pro-Ryan thread went over like a popcorn fart in TATF...so your approach has no chance.  Ryan is still a top 5-7 QB.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

All dead money accelerates and is on the books the year player X is traded or released.  

You can spread over two and designate someone a post June 1 trade/cut.

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1 hour ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Experience matters of course....it's the edge older players need.  So the reading defenses, game situations, overall football knowledge...that counts.

But what do we hear about OL play in the NFL...?  It's harder and harder to find guys ready to come in and play in traditional NFL offenses because most are now playing in spread attacks.

So with Ryan's traditional skillset - the idea that all we have to do is block better is easier said than done.  The talent pool/pipeline simply isn't what it once was coming from the college ranks.  So the Watson's, Jackson's, Mahomes'...they are a product of the changing nature of the NFL because of how football is being taught/played at the lower levels.

The traditional skill set as you put it is still a tried and true winning product.The biggest thing I’ve noticed is because very few of these QBs can digest a pro system fully is why the leagues OCs are going this way.

As for olineman if you have a half competent OC he can overcome this problem by scheme diversity.I mean the prime example of this was KS with us and now in San Fran.He’s taken retreads changed out his LT through injuries and what not and has still won with a QB under centre.

End of the day all Ryan needs is a competent decision maker and OC who will use him to his strengths and you’ll see   what Ryan really is not this stuttering type play we’ve seen this year.

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4 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

 

It's funny...rewind back to 2012 and all you saw in this place were Ryan's come from behind/game-winning drive and career record stats.  How things come full circle...

And you know what you also never see posted? Rodgers record in those same situations...

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1 minute ago, kiwifalcon said:

The traditional skill set as you put it is still a tried and true winning product.The biggest thing I’ve noticed is because very few of these QBs can digest a pro system fully is why the leagues OCs are going this way.

As for olineman if you have a half competent OC he can overcome this problem by scheme diversity.I mean the prime example of this was KS with us and now in San Fran.He’s taken retreads changed out his LT through injuries and what not and has still won with a QB under centre.

End of the day all Ryan needs is a competent decision maker and OC who will use him to his strengths and you’ll see   what Ryan really is not this stuttering type play we’ve seen this year.

I think to say Shanahan is a 'competent' OC is like saying Olivia Culpo 'isn't bad'....

I mean Shanahan as a young offensive mind, not sure there is anyone on par with him.  So I don't think it's so easy to go find his sequel so to speak.

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1 minute ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

You can spread over two and designate someone a post June 1 trade/cut.

Only if designated post June 1, then it’s split equally over two years.  You are correct

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3 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

If you want to advocate moving on from Ryan, there is a better way to go about it.  I’ve tried it in my Joe Burrow thread,  Even that very  pro-Ryan thread went over like a popcorn fart in TATF...so your approach has no chance.  Ryan is still a top 5-7 QB.

This. 

While I didn't agree with drafting Burrow, you at least put a compelling reason behind taking a top tier QB that we'd otherwise not have a chance at drafting to sit and be the bridge once Matt is done. 

This is ridiculous, especially trying to use career record or something like Matt has not played with sub par defensive rosters. Like facts like this don't exist:

Everything else about the roster has been below average except the thing Matt can control. Yet, he's the one they need to move on from? Lol 

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1 minute ago, vel said:

This. 

While I didn't agree with drafting Burrow, you at least put a compelling reason behind taking a top tier QB that we'd otherwise not have a chance at drafting to sit and be the bridge once Matt is done. 

This is ridiculous, especially trying to use career record or something like Matt has not played with sub par defensive rosters. Like facts like this don't exist:

Everything else about the roster has been below average except the thing Matt can control. Yet, he's the one they need to move on from? Lol 

So in your statement - you specifically say 'the roster is below average'...we know our salary cap situation (not good for upgrading, right).  I mean we'll be in worse shape than last year which yielded us Carpenter/Brown.

So how is this not a rebuild?  Just because we have Ryan?  That hasn't helped!

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1 minute ago, vel said:

This. 

While I didn't agree with drafting Burrow, you at least put a compelling reason behind taking a top tier QB that we'd otherwise not have a chance at drafting to sit and be the bridge once Matt is done. 

This is ridiculous, especially trying to use career record or something like Matt has not played with sub par defensive rosters. Like facts like this don't exist:

Everything else about the roster has been below average except the thing Matt can control. Yet, he's the one they need to move on from? Lol 

Post the 3rd down defense Ryan has been supported by while you’re at it.  That number is shockingly bad.
Imagine how great Ryan’s numbers would look with a defense that gave him an extra 1-2 possessions per game.  2016 defense was opportunistic and look what we did with those extra possessions and short fields

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5 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

It may not be a great year for Ryan, but so long as he is solid ala 2017, the Falcons can be dangerous by the playoffs

I don't remember much of the commentary around his 2017 season being of the 'solid' variety.

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The Falcons average defensive DVOA under Smitty was 20th. Under DQ it's been 25th. Yet, you want to bring up team record to speak on why Rodgers is better and carries his team and why Ryan isn't lifting this team and a viable reason for why we should move on? In 2010, the year GB won the SB, Rodgers had the #2 defense in DVOA. In 2016, the year of the Falcons SB run, the defense was...... 26th in DVOA. 

And this whole "You can't find another Kyle" talk is comedy when over half of this place wanted Kyle gone because he was a QB killer in 2015. Coaches come and go all of the time. 

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12 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

So let's take a look at Ryan's regular stats in the years he's had an OC for the first year.

2015 (Shanahan): 407/614 4591 21:16
2017 (Sark): 342/529 4095 20:12
2019: (Koetter): 321/481 3559 22:12

...am I off-base to think that with a new OC in tow (not to mention whole new everything/everyone), 2020 may not be a great year for Ryan?  And if so, now you're banking on things clicking when he's 36?

I don’t buy the narrative that Ryan struggles with new OC’s.  Only when learning the WCO was there a clear and admitted learning curve.  He was fine year 1 under Mularkey, great year 1 under Koetter and ranked PFF’s #2 overall QB year 1 under Sark

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3 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

I don't remember much of the commentary around his 2017 season being of the 'solid' variety.

“Despite the drop in offensive production from the record-setting 2016 season, former MVP quarterback Matt Ryan was still one of the best signal-callers in the league. 

According to Pro Football Focus, Ryan was the second-highest graded quarterback in the NFL with an overall grade of 89.9. The only quarterback ahead of the 32-year-old was the Patriots’ Tom Brady (94.9).“

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2 minutes ago, vel said:

The Falcons average defensive DVOA under Smitty was 20th. Under DQ it's been 25th. Yet, you want to bring up team record to speak on why Rodgers is better and carries his team and why Ryan isn't lifting this team and a viable reason for why we should move on? In 2010, the year GB won the SB, Rodgers had the #2 defense in DVOA. In 2016, the year of the Falcons SB run, the defense was...... 26th in DVOA. 

And this whole "You can't find another Kyle" talk is comedy when over half of this place wanted Kyle gone because he was a QB killer in 2015. Coaches come and go all of the time. 

Has your view of Shanahan changed since the 2017 off-season?  I know mine has.

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5 hours ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

 

So what's interesting about the first two replies as that you both point to a 35 year-old QB as an asset.  I’m not disparaging Matt Ryan at all, but the reality is that the proverbial clock has begin to tick on his time as a 'franchise QB'.  To the extent that the Panthers also have a franchise QB on the payroll...it's interesting that the Panthers have already stated their intentions here to move on from theirs

Panther’s “franchise QB” is broken, and may never return to form. While our franchise QB is Gumby.

As far as you saying you’re not “disparaging Matt Ryan at all”, how many more threads do you need to make about moving on from him before nobody believes you? 

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1 minute ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

“Despite the drop in offensive production from the record-setting 2016 season, former MVP quarterback Matt Ryan was still one of the best signal-callers in the league. 

According to Pro Football Focus, Ryan was the second-highest graded quarterback in the NFL with an overall grade of 89.9. The only quarterback ahead of the 32-year-old was the Patriots’ Tom Brady (94.9).“

So it was everybody elses fault that we scored 187 fewer points than the previous season?  Ryan ranked #2 from a single source - he's not culpable?

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3 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

So in your statement - you specifically say 'the roster is below average'...we know our salary cap situation (not good for upgrading, right).  I mean we'll be in worse shape than last year which yielded us Carpenter/Brown.

So how is this not a rebuild?  Just because we have Ryan?  That hasn't helped!

I said: 

Quote

The Falcons, like 2012 pointed out, aren't in a full rebuild. The offense is still legit. It's extremely hindered by poor coaching/playcalling. I'd be willing to bet the offense with a modern OC can average 28 points per game with the current talent. That's not unreasonable. The defense needs a complete overhaul. They currently have four picks in the top 100. They could easily use all four on the very best defensive players at those picks and be headed in the right direction. Get a coach who can call defensive schemes that match today's football and you should improve from bottom three. 

I said the offense is held back severely by poor coaching/playcalling. They don't need a Kyle. They just need a coach who actually understands 2019 offensive NFL football and calling to it. The defense needs a full rebuild and they have the draft picks to begin that overhaul. This current Falcons team is not a 5-11 team like they are trending for. They should have beaten the Cards, Titans, Colts, and Bucs. But coaching killed them more than any lack of talent. Those four teams are not better than the Falcons. HeIl, the Colts game is a prime example of Matt Ryan doing everything possible to win the game and having a lackluster defense hold the team back. 

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