g-dawg

Tanker's Ball - might as well pre-empt FFS1970

53 posts in this topic

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

So Falcons are 3-9 with 4 games left -

vs Carolina - WIN

@ SanFran - LOSS

vs Jacksonville - WIN

@ Tampa - LOSS   

We all know the Niners game is an automatic loss.   Given the mismatch on Falcons OL vs Tampa DL two weeks ago, think it's a safe loss to close out the season as well.  The two home games versus Carolina and Jacksonville will likely define where the Falcons pick.   As you can see by Strength of Schedule(SOS) - the Falcons have the toughest SOS and will lose that tiebreaker with any other teams with similiar record.   

 

DRAFT FLOOR:  I assume all the teams with a  5-7 record right now will win at least 1 more game so believe Falcons will be picking ahead of all those teams.  So the absolute worst I see Falcons draft position would be #11 overall.   This assumes Falcons win 2 out of next 4 games and finish 5-11.  WORST11th pick overall

DRAFT CEILING:  The Miami Dolphins(3-9) play @ NY Jets, @ NY Giants, vs Bengals and @ Patriots.  There is a very real chance the Dolphins could win 2/4 and finish at 5-11 and Falcons could leapfrog them in the draft.    The Washington Redskins(3-9) have a tough remaining schedule and at least 3 sure losses(Packers, Eagles, Cowboys).  The only winnable game is a home game versus NY Giants.   Falcons likely would have to lose out to leap Redskins which is unlikely.  BEST - 4th pick overall

LIKELY RANGE:   I believe it likely the Falcons will win the two home games - already beat Panthers once and they are reeling right now and lost 4 straight - plus Falcons have a mini-bye which is an advantage.   If Falcons are gonna play another good game this year - it should be the next game - the Panthers.   So I have that one as a win.   If Falcons manage to lose that game, then all bets are off and they could lose all 4 - although it will take some work to lose to Jacksonville because they are also reeling w/ 4 straight losses.    So my prediction now is Falcons go 5-11 which will likely severely damage their draft position.  LIKELY RANGE - 9-11

SPECIFIC PICK PREDICTION:    1)Cincy Bengals(2-14),  2)NY Giants(3-13), 3)Detroit Lions(3-12-1),  4) Washington Redskins(4-12),  5) Miami Dolphins(4-12), 6) Jacksonville Jaguars(4-12), 7) Arizona Cardinals(4-11-1)  8) NY Jets(5-11), 9) Denver Broncos(5-11), 10) Atlanta Falcons(5-11),  11) LA Chargers (6-10).    PREDICTED FALCONS PICK - 10th overall

2020 NFL Draft Order

PICK TEAM RECORD WIN% GB SOS
 
STREAK
 
1
 
 
1-11 .083 -- .573 Won 1
 
2
 
 
2-10 .167 1.0 .466 Lost 8
 
3
 
 
3-9 .250 2.0 .490 Won 2
 
4
 
 
3-9 .250 2.0 .495 Won 1
 
5 3-9 .250 2.0 .566 Lost 2
 
6
 
 
3-8-1 .292 2.5 .487 Lost 5
 
7
 
 
3-8-1 .292 2.5 .545 Lost 5
 
8
 
 
4-8 .333 3.0 .479 Lost 4
 
9
 
 
4-8 .333 3.0 .484 Lost 1
 
10
 
 
4-8 .333 3.0 .510 Lost 3
 
11
 
 
4-8 .333 3.0 .531 Won 1
 
12
 
 
5-7 .417 4.0 .455 Lost 3
 
13
 
 
5-7 .417 4.0 .503 Won 2
 
14
 
 
5-7 .417 4.0 .537  Lost 4
 
-
 
 
5-7 .417 4.0 .537  Lost 1

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Picking 10th overall takes Falcons out of the running for these players:

Chase Young, DE (top 3 pick)

Jeff Odukah, CB (top 5 pick)

Andrew Thomas, LT (top 5 pick)

 

Players that could drop to #10 that might be of interest to Falcons:

Derrick Brown, DT - Auburn

AJ Epenesa, DE - Iowa

Grant Delpit, S - LSU

Javon Kinlaw, DT - South Carolina

Tristan Wirfs, OT - Iowa

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1 minute ago, D.B.N. said:

F*** this team man, can't even lose right 

yeah, the team has a bad habit of rallying in bad years once the season is over.   also, they always seem to have a tough SOS and lose tiebreakers w/ 2-3 teams.

D.B.N. likes this

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If the team blew the McGary and Lindstrom picks....

It could be years before the team recovers and Ryan and Julio will be on the downside of their careers.. if they are even still here.

Blank screwed up the Quinn hire and wasted the prime years of Julio and Ryan

D.B.N. and MoFalconsFan56 like this

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3 minutes ago, ZoneOne01 said:

I’m expecting the worse outcome. 

well my analysis predicted the worst outcome as pick#11 and I have us picking #10 - so almost the worst outcome.  SMDH

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5 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

If the team blew the McGary and Lindstrom picks....

It could be years before the team recovers and Ryan and Julio will be on the downside of their careers.. if they are even still here.

Blank screwed up the Quinn hire and wasted the prime years of Julio and Ryan

Right now I have faith that Lindstrom and McGary will turn out - I do think McGary is gonna have to move inside.

I might even entertain taking an OT like Andrew Thomas or Tristan Wirfs in the draft and move McGary inside.  I realize that would go over like a fart in church at TATF though - I mostly want a DT/DE type that has passrush ability and is a bully though (aka Derrick Brown or AJ Espensa).

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27 minutes ago, caponine said:

I'd consider sitting Ryan for that 49ers game , 

I cant post the "get him a bodybag" GIF from Karate Kid for some reason but that would be a highly appropriate saying for that game

Edited by Flyin' In DC
g-dawg likes this

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2 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Right now I have faith that Lindstrom and McGary will turn out - I do think McGary is gonna have to move inside.

I might even entertain taking an OT like Andrew Thomas or Tristan Wirfs in the draft and move McGary inside.  I realize that would go over like a fart in church at TATF though - I mostly want a DT/DE type that has passrush ability and is a bully though (aka Derrick Brown or AJ Espensa).

You're right.  That would not go over well at all.

Especially considering how much they paid Carpenter and Brown.   Unless McGary makes a HUGE jump and stays at RT and Lindstrom plays like a pro-bowler out the gate last off-season may have been one of the worst debacles I've seen the Falcons make in regards to the oline I can remember.

I laugh when I think back to when people here were saying it was going to be the best oline Ryan ever played behind.

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Bosher is coming back so that guarantees at least one punt blocked. Need Carolina to start Grier to surprise the Falcons. San Fran will dominate us. Don't see the team winning against Tampa as Jameis always puts up about 400 on us. 

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2 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

You're right.  That would not go over well at all.

Especially considering how much they paid Carpenter and Brown.   Unless McGary makes a HUGE jump and stays at RT and Lindstrom plays like a pro-bowler out the gate last off-season may have been one of the worst debacles I've seen the Falcons make in regards to the oline I can remember.

I laugh when I think back to when people here were saying it was going to be the best oline Ryan ever played behind.

Lindstrom hasn't even basically played.   You want to chalk him up as a bad pick before he has even played a season?

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if Falcons could somehow lose 3-of-4, then we would swap spots w/ Jacksonville and be picking 6th - that is a huge improvement over 10th.  I will root for Falcons to try and win every game yet still somehow manage to lose 3-of-4.

YES, this is possible - my mind can pull it off.

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4 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Lindstrom hasn't even basically played.   You want to chalk him up as a bad pick before he has even played a season?

Yes because it's been that kind of season.

If you think the Falcons will screw up everything they touch they will never disappoint you.

He may turn out to be a good pick but it remains to be seen.

And here's the thing.  What if they hire an offensive head coach that wants to run a different type of scheme that doesn't fit the oline we have now?  Do we lose that guy because Blank says he has to use the linemen we have?

Basically when it comes to the Falcons I'm not optimistic. 

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I don’t want to draft either, but Tua & Hebert will be available.  
 

Burrow is the only quarterback I would consider though.  But Pre-injury, Tua was still a lock to go first

 

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22 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Right now I have faith that Lindstrom and McGary will turn out - I do think McGary is gonna have to move inside.

I might even entertain taking an OT like Andrew Thomas or Tristan Wirfs in the draft and move McGary inside.  I realize that would go over like a fart in church at TATF though - I mostly want a DT/DE type that has passrush ability and is a bully though (aka Derrick Brown or AJ Espensa).

You could solve this by drafting McGary’s old line mate Trey Adams in Round 3 or 4.  If not for injury concerns he is a 1st round prospect.  He is a mailer at 6’8, 330 lbs with long arms.  A better RT prospect than McGary and allows KM to teach his ceiling at RG

Chitown2ATL_Falcon likes this

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7 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

You could solve this by drafting McGary’s old line mate Trey Adams in Round 3 or 4.  If not for injury concerns he is a 1st round prospect.  He is a mailer at 6’8, 330 lbs with long arms.  A better RT prospect than McGary and allows KM to teach his ceiling at RG

yeah, I have already thought about this guy - would depend on what the docs say on the medicals.

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11 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

Yes because it's been that kind of season.

If you think the Falcons will screw up everything they touch they will never disappoint you.

He may turn out to be a good pick but it remains to be seen.

And here's the thing.  What if they hire an offensive head coach that wants to run a different type of scheme that doesn't fit the oline we have now?  Do we lose that guy because Blank says he has to use the linemen we have?

Basically when it comes to the Falcons I'm not optimistic. 

understand the pessimism but believe Lindstrom and McGary can fit any system.

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2020 NFL Draft prospects: Happy, healthy and hungry, Wenatchee’s Trey Adams could be a top pick next year

Todd Milles, Scorebook LiveTodd Milles, Scorebook Live
7 months ago
adams-1-1024x462.jpg

Photo by Seattle Times

 

After his final spring game with the Washington Huskies on Saturday afternoon, Trey Adams slowly headed toward the tunnel toward the locker room.

He was tired. His uniform was drenched in sweat. And he was ready to take it easy the rest of the night.

On the way, Adams looked up and saw former teammate Kaleb McGary staring him down from the sideline, wearing the hat of the team that had just selected him Thursday night in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft – the Atlanta Falcons.

The two offensive tackles talked briefly before Adams headed off to get dressed.

 

Since Adams will likely be a hot name for the 2020 NFL Draft, they will surely get caught up again over the next few months.

“I am going to get with him after he’s done with mini-camp to see what (the NFL Draft process) was like,” Adams said. “I mean, it is in the back of my mind, but it is also not a big worry right now. I am happy to be healthy and playing.”

A year ago at this time, Adams, a Wenatchee High School graduate, was thought to be the Huskies’ top offensive lineman prospect for the 2019 NFL Draft.

 

Some analysts thought the 6-foot-8, 306-pounder had top-10 potential as a left tackle. Most figured he would be gone by early in the second round.

But a few days before the UW’s season opener against Auburn, Adams suffered a serious back injury that required surgery. Not only was his season in jeopardy, his NFL dreams were suddenly on hold.

Yet, for the 10 weeks that Adams was sidelined, something happened. He began to realize how much football meant to him.

“If anything, it inspires you more, because when you are injured, you get to sit back and see all the stuff that goes on,” Adams said. “And here, the train kept rolling. To miss out on that stuff, it definitely pumped me up.”

 

Adams did return for the final four games last season, including the Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. And this spring, he has been a full participant during UW’s spring camp.

His back has felt great. And his attitude has been contagious.

“He has a different energy about him because he doesn’t have to worry about his body,” said UW center Nick Harris, who is also Adams’ roommate. “He is getting back in that (groove).”

Harris said he knew Adams was thinking long and hard about the NFL again because all he does is talk about football – at home and in the linemen’s room.

 

“The guy loves football **** near more than me – and I love football,” Harris said. “The guy wants to play in the NFL, he is going to play in the NFL and he is going to play for a long time, because his perseverance and his will to do so is pretty impressive.”

If you don’t believe Adams will be in the NFL, just study his body language. It is obvious in the way he carries himself, said future NFL Draft tight-end hopeful Hunter Bryant.

“You can see it with how he walks around,” Bryant said.

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