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FalconsIn2012

Value of The Run Game

61 posts in this topic

8 minutes ago, Rings said:

OK.  We can look at that.  Lets remove when we are down more than two touchdowns.  When down 14 points or less:

0-1 TE Sets: 117 snaps - 35% success rate (worst in NFL)
2+ TE Sets: 66 snap - 55% success rate (second best in NFL behind only the Gaints at 56%)

Can you pull week 11 & 12 breakdown? Better yet, what is the breakdown when we're in the lead? Like I mentioned, we're usually down 14 or more. I would at least hope that there's a bit of a difference in being up and able to run.

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52 minutes ago, Geaux_Falcons said:

Can you pull week 11 & 12 breakdown? Better yet, what is the breakdown when we're in the lead? Like I mentioned, we're usually down 14 or more. I would at least hope that there's a bit of a difference in being up and able to run.

Of course.

 

With the lead for the season:

0-1 TEs: 38 runs - 26% success rate (3rd worst in NFL)
2+ TEs: 22 runs - 41% success rate (11th best in NFL)

 

Weeks 11 & 12 Total:

0-1 TEs: 31 runs - 32% success rate (4th worst in NFL)
2+ TEs: 14 runs - 50% success rate (9th best in NFL)

 

I get the data from:

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

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5 minutes ago, Rings said:

With the lead for the season:

0-1 TEs: 38 runs - 26% success (3rd worst in NFL)
2+ TEs: 22 runs - 41% (11th best in NFL)

 

Weeks 11 & 12 Total:
 

0-1 TEs: 31 runs - 32% (4th worst in NFL)
2+ TEs: 14 runs - 50% success rate (9th best in NFL)

 

I get the data from:

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

I thought you did. Didn't realize I needed to switch to computer version. 

My only concern here is that Dirk in Tampa was more successful running 11 rather 12 except in 2016. That year, he did run more 12 though. Curious if it's more of an individual personnel issue. 

 

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2 hours ago, Rings said:

It's because they were brought in for Shanny & Sarks scheme, not Dirks.  Not many maulers have the lateral quickness/agility to succeed in an outside zone scheme.

Agreed. Hence why we need a makeover. 

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18 minutes ago, Geaux_Falcons said:

I thought you did. Didn't realize I needed to switch to computer version. 

My only concern here is that Dirk in Tampa was more successful running 11 rather 12 except in 2016. That year, he did run more 12 though. Curious if it's more of an individual personnel issue. 

 

His run game was bad their too though, 2016: 30th, 2017: 25th, 2018: 24th.  He has been bottom 20 in the league for a decade for a reason.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Rings said:

His run game was bad their too though, 2016: 30th, 2017: 25th, 2018: 24th.  He has been bottom 20 in the league for a decade for a reason.

 

 

Agreed. I mean I'm not his biggest fan to begin with, but I'm in the minority (maybe only one) that believes Dirk has never had the personnel he desires to run the ball. That, and I'm not the biggest Freeman fan either.

Like with Shanny, he knows what kind of players he wants, and he goes and gets them.

I have no qualms getting rid of Dirk. Although I do wish for continuity, some of Dirks play calling has left me a bit frustrated. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Geaux_Falcons said:

Agreed. I mean I'm not his biggest fan to begin with, but I'm in the minority (maybe only one) that believes Dirk has never had the personnel he desires to run the ball. That, and I'm not the biggest Freeman fan either.

Like with Shanny, he knows what kind of players he wants, and he goes and gets them.

I have no qualms getting rid of Dirk. Although I do wish for continuity, some of Dirks play calling has left me a bit frustrated. 

 

I was meh on the hire, but I soured early when I felt he wasn’t playing to the teams strengths and avoiding the weaknesses.  People are going to make mistakes, but most learn from them and I just feel like week in and out he makes the same ones that seem so obvious to fix.  Ryan gets hurt from getting sacked too many times, Schaub comes in, let’s scheme quick reads, 3 step drops and lots of screen passes to RBs to protect him.  Oh that worked?  Well now that Ryan’s back let’s go back to 7 step drops and no screens and let him take 9 sacks in a game and wonder why we lose.  Same with Quinn on defense.  Our coverage normally sucks, so let’s try playing man close to LoS and then win two games? Nice.  Now let’s back off again and get torched.

Im ready for change.  

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7 hours ago, Geaux_Falcons said:

Agreed. I mean I'm not his biggest fan to begin with, but I'm in the minority (maybe only one) that believes Dirk has never had the personnel he desires to run the ball. That, and I'm not the biggest Freeman fan either.

Like with Shanny, he knows what kind of players he wants, and he goes and gets them.

I have no qualms getting rid of Dirk. Although I do wish for continuity, some of Dirks play calling has left me a bit frustrated. 

 

Dirk had 4 years in Tampa to get his personnel.

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On 12/1/2019 at 11:56 PM, FalconsIn2012 said:

They have given TG 50 attempts the four games leading up to today.  Ran for 230 yards over that time.  Am I missing something

Nothing, other than they are right around the league YPC average and playing .500 football over the last month. I've watched all their games. Over the last month I was left thinking: "What's wrong with the wonder boy HC?" instead of "Wow, look at that dominating rushing attack. They looked predictable and ordinary scheme wise. 

For 3 quarters, we were as committed to the run as any team in the NFL in the most recent game. We abandoned the run early as still had only 8 fewer carries than the first game with the Saints during which we led all day. The problem was that the YPC was over half a yard less because we didn't have the big runs that Ridley and Barner got in the first game. Or long rush of the day was Ryan for 9 yards. No RB had a carry over 8. 

We were plenty committed to the Run...we just lacked the coaching, OL, and RB talent to do it. 

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On 12/1/2019 at 7:24 PM, Nino11 said:

It’s hard to run the ball when your getting 0-2 yard gains every clip. Even more hard when your team is down 3 scores before you can blink. I will say My only real complaint is there isn’t any variation in the play calling. Like we know there’s gonna be a run on 1st and 10 for little to no gain. There’s never a shot play, play action, nothing to switch it up. They are way too predictable but I don’t blame him for leaning on the pass when the run game looks so shaky 

Koetter has ALWAYS been that way. The same complaint was given about him last time he was here.

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3 hours ago, Refried Beans said:

Yes it's true you have to run the football to win in the NFL. 

Image result for captain obvious

You have to effectively run the ball.

Running just to have “balance” isn’t smart in today’s NFL if you aren’t productive with that run and essentially wasting a down.

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8 minutes ago, Rings said:

You have to effectively run the ball.

Running just to have “balance” isn’t smart in today’s NFL if you aren’t productive with that run and essentially wasting a down.

I don’t think you have to be dynamic or dominant running the ball. Even if you can average 3.5 ypc (not good) it’s enough to establish the threat of a run.  Just can’t have consistent negative plays, which we are 29th at.  Our Stuff % on run downs is 25% which is so bad

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4 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I don’t think you have to be dynamic or dominant running the ball. Even if you can average 3.5 ypc (not good) it’s enough to establish the threat of a run.  Just can’t have consistent negative plays, which we are 29th at.  Our Stuff % on run downs is 25% which is so bad

That’s my point.  Some people want us to run it more, I want them to run it better.  If they can get better at it, then run it more often.  But to continue running the ball for zero or one yard and throw away first downs and set up 2nd and 3rd and long is just another reason why Ryan is getting destroyed.

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3 minutes ago, Rings said:

That’s my point.  Some people want us to run it more, I want them to run it better.  If they can get better at it, then run it more often.  But to continue running the ball for zero or one yard and throw away first downs and set up 2nd and 3rd and long is just another reason why Ryan is getting destroyed.

When you consider that we are 29th in stuff % and 30th in 2nd  level Yards, tge picture becomes clear.  We can’t open up holes, and when we do our Guards lack the athleticism to reach their second level assignments.

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On 12/2/2019 at 7:09 PM, Geaux_Falcons said:

If you're down several TD's, you tend to lean more pass happy in trying to catch back up. Outside of Hooper, Graham is the only pass catching TE we have, and it makes no sense in running 12 personnel if teams know you're just going to run the ball because your other TE isn't a threat as a receiver. You really need pass catchers in this situation.

This is an overlook thing about the Ravens offense. They have 3 TE's that can block as well as catch adequately. Mark Andrew's in particular does both at a high level. They run or pass and teams would have to stay on their toes.

We're usually stuck with 1.5, since Stocker is limited as a receiver. Not to mention, he was inactive. 

As a DC, I would just committ on stopping the run if you're going to show me an obvious run look. Now if we had Hooper and Julio, 12 would look more enticing.

 

When we had Sanu I’d have run that 2 TE sets all day **** him and Julio blocking the outside only pisses me off more in our inability to move the ball on the ground.

Continually looking inside when we should have been running outside.

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58 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

When we had Sanu I’d have run that 2 TE sets all day **** him and Julio blocking the outside only pisses me off more in our inability to move the ball on the ground.

Continually looking inside when we should have been running outside.

Would have liked seeing that jet action Shanny use to run out of 12 for sure. Seemed like it always setup the backside, post route to a wide open TE. 

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9 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I don’t think you have to be dynamic or dominant running the ball. Even if you can average 3.5 ypc (not good) it’s enough to establish the threat of a run.  Just can’t have consistent negative plays, which we are 29th at.  Our Stuff % on run downs is 25% which is so bad

That level of running only works if your defense can hold in the first half while you attempt to build a lead; otherwise you wind up with lopsided pass/run ratios with how bad almost every game outside of PHI/NO(x2)/CAR have been.

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9 hours ago, Rings said:

That’s my point.  Some people want us to run it more, I want them to run it better.  If they can get better at it, then run it more often.  But to continue running the ball for zero or one yard and throw away first downs and set up 2nd and 3rd and long is just another reason why Ryan is getting destroyed.

Exactly. Be middle of the pack in rushing EPA > just volume for balance sake. Efficiency > volume in a vacuum.

This quoted retweet of Baldy expounds in his list of best rushing teams:

 

Edited by Schwarzwald
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1 minute ago, Gold4425 said:

We want a Run game BUT can we  Truly have an effective run game with our present OL and the lack of dominant back or a big back?

Iirc Free and Ito were the best rated runners for the Falcons so far this year; of course they also had the most touches for a while.

Nah, Get Lindstrom back. Figure out Mack; returning for a year OR to draft a replacement by round 2 or underling for a year?

Above all: Get the right offensive coaches and systems/playcalling here.

We’d have a better pass blocking and run blocking OL if Sark were still here; given he had a less talented OL that was better suited still for pure ZBS. This hybrid stuff ain’t working.

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