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FalconsIn2012

Almost Feel Bad For RB’s:

85 posts in this topic

 

6 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

You wouldn’t take Gurley, Zeke or Jacobs for 5 years on a rookie contract?

Not on a second contract. And certainly not for what they paid them. Great running backs are so rare, moreso today. I was agreeing with you.

imagine what Barry Sanders would make in this era. He ran out of a run and shoot offense.

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2 hours ago, Summerhill said:

Chris Johnson actually had a pretty average career except for his one monster season. 

as he himself pointed out on Twitter this weekend, six 1k seasons is by no means average

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30 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

I'm not spending that high of a draft pick on a guy I know I'm not going to re-sign in 5 years.

Yep, top 20 pick you should get aiming for better long term prospects than an RB

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RB is my favorite position group to track and the one thing that the article highlights is that without good O-line play, it doesn't matter who is getting the ball so no sense in overpaying.  The best back in the league is CMac (IMO) but if I was a GM, I'd be scared to sign him to a big or long deal just due to the heavy usage he gets. 

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2 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Why not?  You get him cheap and for his prime years.  

The drop off in your chances of hitting on a running back from round 1 to 3 or 4 is a ton less than the drop off on a pass rusher, wide receiver, offensive linemen, etc.  

Top 10 PFF ranked RBs this year have an average draft position of 100 (two UDFAs & one round 5), WR is 41 (no one after round 3), pass rusher is 26 (no one after round 3, 7/10 first round). 

One eye opening thing to me is 7 of the top 11 CBs this year were undrafted, including Brian Poole.  Only one is a first rounder, Marcus Peters.

I know PFF isn't the end all, be all...but it's still interesting.

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10 hours ago, mtldirtybird said:

as he himself pointed out on Twitter this weekend, six 1k seasons is by no means average

If I wasn’t clear I meant average for a good player. In the context of this thread, he got paid like he was going to get 2,000 yards every season but never came close again. 

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So, you wouldn’t have resigned Walter Payton to a 2nd contract? Barry Sanders? 
Tomlinson? Emmitt Smith?

OP is suggesting Giants should take a pass on (If still healthy) Barkley when his next contract comes up? Cowboys on Zeke? Panthers on CM? 

There’s exceptions to everything, but this seems to be an overreaction to what’s happened to freeman. 

 

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15 hours ago, Summerhill said:

The evidence shows you should never pay big money to running backs but there are lots of dinosaurs in the NFL who grew up idolizing Walter Payton and Eric Dickerson in the 80s and will keep doing it. 

Especially during Super Bowl week.

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34 minutes ago, Vandy said:

So, you wouldn’t have resigned Walter Payton to a 2nd contract? Barry Sanders? 
Tomlinson? Emmitt Smith?

OP is suggesting Giants should take a pass on (If still healthy) Barkley when his next contract comes up? Cowboys on Zeke? Panthers on CM? 

There’s exceptions to everything, but this seems to be an overreaction to what’s happened to freeman. 

 

The last great RB we had was a guy entering his 2nd contract that we paid a premium for in FA. We would have never gotten Mike Turner with these principles, LOL.

Edited by RubberDucky
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10 minutes ago, RubberDucky said:

The last great RB we had was a guy entering his 2nd contract that we paid a premium for in FA. We would have never gotten Mike Turner with these principles, LOL.

Great point. 

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16 minutes ago, RubberDucky said:

The last great RB we had was a guy entering his 2nd contract that we paid a premium for in FA. We would have never gotten Mike Turner with these principles, LOL.

Turner did not take the beating of a #1 back during his rookie contract.  Studies show that running back’s career takes a swan dive after 1,800 rushing attempts.  Almost no exceptions.

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54 minutes ago, Vandy said:

So, you wouldn’t have resigned Walter Payton to a 2nd contract? Barry Sanders? 
Tomlinson? Emmitt Smith?

OP is suggesting Giants should take a pass on (If still healthy) Barkley when his next contract comes up? Cowboys on Zeke? Panthers on CM? 

There’s exceptions to everything, but this seems to be an overreaction to what’s happened to freeman. 

 

This has nothing to do with Free.  Just a general observation

 

Measuring NFL Running Back Longevity: Falling Off the 1,800-Carry Cliff 
Joseph Juan Apr 9th, 2015
 

Nothing lasts forever.

In today's world, the average lifespan of a car is approximately 200,000 miles. At around this milestone, most vehicles will hit what many in the industry call a point of "planned obsolescence", in which general wear and tear eventually renders a car unusable.

And when you stop to think about it, running backs in the NFL are a lot like cars.

If every collision in the NFL is "like a car crash," as some players have described it, then there's only so many carries and hits a player can take before they begin to break down and hit that point of "planned obsolescence."

But exactly how much is too much? At what point do the touches finally take their toll and push players into the twilight of their careers?

The 1,800-Carry Cliff

To answer this question I first collected data on every NFL running back whose entire career fell within the past 15 seasons, all while accumulating at least 2,000 carries.

This produced a list of the following eight tailbacks:
LaDainian Tomlinson (3,174 carries), Steven Jackson (2,743 carries), Thomas Jones (2,678 carries), Jamal Lewis (2,542 carries), Frank Gore(2,442 carries), Clinton Portis (2,230 carries), Shaun Alexander (2,187 carries), and Willis McGahee(2,095 carries).

To find the point at which a player's accumulated workload begins to seriously hamper on-field performance, I then plotted the average career carries for this group of backs against their average rushing yards, touchdowns, and Net Expected Points (NEP) for each season of their careers. Rather than go into detail on what exactly NEP is, I'll let you read about it in the glossary, but in short, NEP is our in-house metric to measure a player's production above or below expectation

What this revealed was a very interesting and readily apparent trend when players reached the 1,800-carry milestone.

 


Click here for larger chart1119.jpg

What we find is that, when players hit this mark, rushing yards take a sharp decline the following season, and only continues to plummet in every season thereafter. The same occurs when we look at rushing touchdowns.

And a look at Rushing NEP (normalized to each running back's best season) reveals the exact same trend as well.


Click here for larger chart1118.jpg

Upon reaching 1,800 carries, Rushing NEP takes an even steeper fall the following season than both rushing yards and touchdowns.

Indeed, when we take the average rushing output from these players in the season where they hit the 1,800 carry mark and compare these numbers to their averages the subsequent season, we find a precipitous drop in every major rushing category.

 

  Avg. in 1,800 Rush Season Avg. in Next Season % Change
Rushing Yards 1,287 1,049 -18.5%
Touchdowns 10.5 7.6 -27.4%
NEP 0.619 -4.286 -792.3%

 

In the time span encompassing these running backs' 1,800 carry seasons and their next ones, the average rushing yards and touchdowns for these players fall by more than 18% and 27%, respectively. Even more impressively, Rushing NEP falls by nearly 800% over this same time span. Yes, you read that correctly, 800%.

Thus, it becomes obvious that this drop in production for these players after hitting the 1,800 carry mark not only has severe on-field consequences for their respective teams, but also marks their inevitable decline out of the league.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff/amp

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2 hours ago, Vandy said:

So, you wouldn’t have resigned Walter Payton to a 2nd contract? Barry Sanders? 
Tomlinson? Emmitt Smith?

OP is suggesting Giants should take a pass on (If still healthy) Barkley when his next contract comes up? Cowboys on Zeke? Panthers on CM? 

There’s exceptions to everything, but this seems to be an overreaction to what’s happened to freeman. 

 

I would not.  There is no argument they are a great talent, no one would deny that.  But over Zeke’s new contract, he will average 14-15 mil a year against the cap. You can get 80-90% of the back for 20-30% of the cost.  It’s just too much money invested in a position that is the most replaceable in football now, and will be starting to wear down as soon as that contract starts, which sucks but it’s true.  Zeke held out and got his, Melvin Gordon tried it and a UDFA came in and played better than he was, so he came back because it backfired.  In my opinion run game success is more dependent on scheme and offensive line than it is the back anymore.  Note how Shanny has a good run game wherever he goes, makes no namers in to studs, and Dirk has a bad one wherever he goes, making once good backs look washed up.

You could do a lot more with 14-15 mil a year over 5-6 years than invest in one RB.  JJ Watt, Justin Houston, Calais Campbell and Dee Ford all make 15 mil or less.  I would rather spend that money on a talent like that, that is much harder to replace with cheaper talent.

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59 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

This has nothing to do with Free.  Just a general observation

 

Measuring NFL Running Back Longevity: Falling Off the 1,800-Carry Cliff 
Joseph Juan Apr 9th, 2015
 

Nothing lasts forever.

In today's world, the average lifespan of a car is approximately 200,000 miles. At around this milestone, most vehicles will hit what many in the industry call a point of "planned obsolescence", in which general wear and tear eventually renders a car unusable.

And when you stop to think about it, running backs in the NFL are a lot like cars.

If every collision in the NFL is "like a car crash," as some players have described it, then there's only so many carries and hits a player can take before they begin to break down and hit that point of "planned obsolescence."

But exactly how much is too much? At what point do the touches finally take their toll and push players into the twilight of their careers?

The 1,800-Carry Cliff

To answer this question I first collected data on every NFL running back whose entire career fell within the past 15 seasons, all while accumulating at least 2,000 carries.

This produced a list of the following eight tailbacks:
LaDainian Tomlinson (3,174 carries), Steven Jackson (2,743 carries), Thomas Jones (2,678 carries), Jamal Lewis (2,542 carries), Frank Gore(2,442 carries), Clinton Portis (2,230 carries), Shaun Alexander (2,187 carries), and Willis McGahee(2,095 carries).

To find the point at which a player's accumulated workload begins to seriously hamper on-field performance, I then plotted the average career carries for this group of backs against their average rushing yards, touchdowns, and Net Expected Points (NEP) for each season of their careers. Rather than go into detail on what exactly NEP is, I'll let you read about it in the glossary, but in short, NEP is our in-house metric to measure a player's production above or below expectation

What this revealed was a very interesting and readily apparent trend when players reached the 1,800-carry milestone.

 


Click here for larger chart1119.jpg

What we find is that, when players hit this mark, rushing yards take a sharp decline the following season, and only continues to plummet in every season thereafter. The same occurs when we look at rushing touchdowns.

And a look at Rushing NEP (normalized to each running back's best season) reveals the exact same trend as well.


Click here for larger chart1118.jpg

Upon reaching 1,800 carries, Rushing NEP takes an even steeper fall the following season than both rushing yards and touchdowns.

Indeed, when we take the average rushing output from these players in the season where they hit the 1,800 carry mark and compare these numbers to their averages the subsequent season, we find a precipitous drop in every major rushing category.

 

  Avg. in 1,800 Rush Season Avg. in Next Season % Change
Rushing Yards 1,287 1,049 -18.5%
Touchdowns 10.5 7.6 -27.4%
NEP 0.619 -4.286 -792.3%

 

In the time span encompassing these running backs' 1,800 carry seasons and their next ones, the average rushing yards and touchdowns for these players fall by more than 18% and 27%, respectively. Even more impressively, Rushing NEP falls by nearly 800% over this same time span. Yes, you read that correctly, 800%.

Thus, it becomes obvious that this drop in production for these players after hitting the 1,800 carry mark not only has severe on-field consequences for their respective teams, but also marks their inevitable decline out of the league.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff/amp

Except Barry Sanders. Though I am pretty sure he's an alien.

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18 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

 

 

18 hours ago, athell said:

The top end guys (Saquon, Zeke, CMC) of the world will still get paid.  And they deserve it.  But if you don't have an elite back, yea...not worth it.

I think the type of RB needs to be taken into consideration. More elusive backs like Saquon and McCaffrey should have a longer career based on style of play. Players like Zeke should not. Too many hits, too many carries, one dimensional. Pay for players that are versatile, avoid punishment, and have mileage left. 

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13 hours ago, Jesus said:

 

Not on a second contract. And certainly not for what they paid them. Great running backs are so rare, moreso today. I was agreeing with you.

imagine what Barry Sanders would make in this era. He ran out of a run and shoot offense.

I, personally, am never a fan of taking a running back in the first round.  That said, I could live with the Jacobs pick towards the end of the first round, I would be pissed taking one in the top ten like Gurley and Zeke...especially in Zeke’s case where Ramsey was still on the board.

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2 hours ago, RubberDucky said:

The last great RB we had was a guy entering his 2nd contract that we paid a premium for in FA. We would have never gotten Mike Turner with these principles, LOL.

Michael Turner came to the Falcons with 228 career carries. That's a totally different situation than the typical 4-year starter with 1,000 carries. 

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32 minutes ago, rings639 said:

I, personally, am never a fan of taking a running back in the first round.  That said, I could live with the Jacobs pick towards the end of the first round, I would be pissed taking one in the top ten like Gurley and Zeke...especially in Zeke’s case where Ramsey was still on the board.

Just playing devils advocate: hasn’t Zeke had a more meaningful impact than Ramsey so far?

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2 hours ago, Jesus said:

Except Barry Sanders. Though I am pretty sure he's an alien.

He was an alien.

But there were plenty of other RB guys have performed well into their 30’s too....AP.....Frank Gore.....Marcus Allen...John Riggins....Curtis Martin....Walter Payton

Emmitt was still grinding > 30

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

Michael Turner came to the Falcons with 228 career carries. That's a totally different situation than the typical 4-year starter with 1,000 carries. 

Okay, Maybe Warrick Dunn would have been a better example. 

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2 hours ago, RubberDucky said:

The last great RB we had was a guy entering his 2nd contract that we paid a premium for in FA. We would have never gotten Mike Turner with these principles, LOL.

He also didn't have the wear and tear on him that the OP's examples state. 

Obviously you can't paint every situation with the same brush, but the OP is making a valid point. I personally cannot argue with his philosophy.  I however am a case by case guy, and I would draft who I think could help me, and I would judge where that guy is at the end of his contract.  If he is in good health, and he is still productive, I'd probably roll the dice.

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17 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Just playing devils advocate: hasn’t Zeke had a more meaningful impact than Ramsey so far?

He has.  Even when he isn't gaining yards, he is taking a ton of pressure off of Dak.

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10 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Okay, Maybe Warrick Dunn would have been a better example. 

That's a good one. 

But here's where it is with me. If you can only find one good example every 3-4 years of a running back producing during his big second contract and you can find 2-3 bad examples every year, I'd rather just write them all off and be wrong once every 3-4 years than 2-3 every year. 

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