*Old Pappy Falcon*

Not Knockin our Current QB

127 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Spts1 said:

Lets back up.  I've seen enough of Trevor Lawrence that I have concerns about HIM.   As far as Justin goes, yes, he has only played one season and needs another solid season to prove himself as a solid quarterback...

You didn't exactly say that... you said "Justin Fields is who they should pick if they have a top pick next season."

My comment was last it was "Trevor Lawrence is who they should pick..."

So maybe definitive statements about who we should pick in the 2021 draft are a bit premature.

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8 hours ago, Spts1 said:

At one time I wanted Trevor Lawrence.  Not anymore.  He looks exactly like Jay Cutler 2.0...  He gonna put up a ton of yardage... and a TON of interceptions.   Justin Fields is who they should pick if they have a top pick next season.  The question about whether the Falcons should draft Ryan's replacement is yes.  The rest of the NFL is moving to mobile quarterbacks who have very good arms...

Vince young needs a job

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11 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

Problem with that is that Lawrence will go #1 overall in his respective draft. As bad as we have been, I don’t see us being THAT bad unless Ryan sustains some sort of season ending injury. 

Honestly I love Ryan but his talent has always been his football acumen and not necessarily his physical tools. I think Ryan has a good 2-3 years left at his current play, with minimal decline. After that point I think we’ll see a noticeable regression. 

That being said, I think that we should draft a QB successor sooner rather than later. This year may be the perfect opportunity to strike. If we somehow manage to finish 7-9, we should be picking in the middle of the draft. At that point it may be the best opportunity to go BPA. If Tua is still there, draft him. If we lose out the remainder of this season, wait until the 2nd round and see if he’s still there. 

The reasoning for this is that Tua will not have to start right away. This will allow him to actually heal his body correctly and fully. Tua will have the opportunity to absorb the playbook, speed, and learn from Ryan for the next 2-3 years before he is called upon.

At that point he should be able to come in with minimal learning curve ahead of him. Not to mention he already has a built in rapport with Ridley. This should allow our offense to keep ticking as we continue to rebuild our defense. 

I would not be in favor of drafting Tua ---- too injury prone in college ---- can you imagine what he'll be like in the NFL?!?!?!  In his case, it might mean Not For Long!  
Now watch him get drafted, and ball out for some team for the next 10+ years.  
I wish him well, though, just not too keen on using a high pick to get him, when it's not necessary right now...  



 




 

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16 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

Thank you. There are people in this board that want us to wait until Ryan retires before we draft a QB. This is done purely out of nostalgia. Can you imagine a fully healed Tua, learning under Ryan for the next few years. 

Yes! Not all injuries are going to magically transfer over to the NFL. It happens ...Yes! Wouldn't mind seeing a tested young stud, behind Ryan's backside. And to whoever reads this....Don't think Dirty.

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You gotta draft a QB when you expect him to be starting on his Rookie contract, whenever that happens to be. It's a huge competitive advantage right now if you can draft a good one 

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The first point that needs to be made here, is that we should all be hoping that Ryan plays for as long as possible - because it is almost certain that any QB who we draft to replace Ryan will be a significant downgrade. How many QBs drafted since 08, are having careers which compare well with Ryan? Russell Wilson is the only one for me who has played consistently at a similar level and is clearly on course for broadly similar career numbers. Just look at the highly rated prospects who've come up short - like Luck, Winston, Cam, Trubisky etc. Patrick Mahomes has clearly shown crazy potential and might end up rewriting the record books, but its too early to compare his career with MR2.

When do we look for Ryan's replacement? For me, it depends primarily on how long he intends to play for, and how we expect his body to hold up physically. The only concern for me physically, is when he starts to lose his arm strength, and whet that will become an issue. We are going to have to spend a high first round pick to give us the best chance of fining a top replacement, and it doesn't make sense to do that unless and until we really we need to.  

Finding a good replacement for Ryan with a high first round pick won't be easy. The chances of finding a franchise QB in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th are much lower again.  There is nothing wrong with taking someone in that part of the draft as a backup for insurance, but expecting them to be a long term replacement for Ryan is probably being optimistic. It can happen, but the odds are stacked against it.

 

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16 hours ago, athell said:

This is no different than every single NFL player though.  The rub is determining when that is.  I see no decline in Matt's play that would tell me a decline is imminent just yet which is why drafting a QB in early rounds makes no sense to me.  I honestly wouldn't spend higher than a 5th on a QB at this point.

If you want to win a SB now, especially with the holes in the roster we have, you don't spend high picks on backup/future QB's.  My opinion, but like I said it's not nearly time yet.  Matt has plenty of ball left in him.

Denver won a SB with a shell of Manning.  It can be done, he did just enough that they needed him to but their surrounding talent was lights out.  I'd rather build that surrounding talent right now, while we still have a QB that can play at a high level, than pass on a potential starter or starters to prepare for an event minimum 3 years down the line.

I disagree that there hasn’t been declines with him. They are slight, but they are there. His arm strength is still good but there’s a bit more arc to them, and his velocity has decreased a tad. It’s negligible, but it’s there. Also, Ryan has always been d@mn near indestructible. His injury concerns me as this could be a sign that his body is finally showing signs of wear. 
 

While I agree in theory with what you’re saying in terms of midtier QB prospects, an exception needs to be considered for top tier prospects that fall. Especially ones with a huge amount of talent. 
 

I would pump the brakes on the 2015 Manning/Broncos comparison. He was  benched for Brock Osweiler (2nd Round pick) during that season. Not to mention Manning was a liability in that Super Bowl. If the Broncos defense were not elite, they would not have won that game. The 2015 Broncos defense is also considered to be one of the greatest defenses ever. 

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13 hours ago, FalconJim said:

I would not be in favor of drafting Tua ---- too injury prone in college ---- can you imagine what he'll be like in the NFL?!?!?!  In his case, it might mean Not For Long!  
Now watch him get drafted, and ball out for some team for the next 10+ years.  
I wish him well, though, just not too keen on using a high pick to get him, when it's not necessary right now...  



 




 

I would in a heartbeat. Allowing him to heal is extremely important to his success. Behind Ryan he’ll be able to heal and learn the game. It’s a win/win situation. 

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6 hours ago, *Old Pappy Falcon* said:

Yes! Not all injuries are going to magically transfer over to the NFL. It happens ...Yes! Wouldn't mind seeing a tested young stud, behind Ryan's backside. And to whoever reads this....Don't think Dirty.

Giggidy 

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There isn't anyone on our current coaching staff that can build a franchise QB, unless the QB comes already to go like Ryan.

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1 minute ago, Jesus said:

There isn't anyone on our current coaching staff that can build a franchise QB, unless the QB comes already to go like Ryan.

That’s the main reason why we should use this time to let Ryan build up our next franchise QB. 

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On 11/21/2019 at 5:54 AM, quotemokc said:

Kurt Benkurt is our future QB.

correction:  Danny Etling is our future QB ;)

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Not sure that I called Palmer an exact comp for Ryan and I can give you other comps of QBs that started declining around that age as well. Just think its more likely than not that Matt Ryan does not go Tom Brady way and goes more Philip Rivers way, for example.

I think he has 2 or 3 years left before he starts to noticeably decline. His new contract is up in 2023 and as of today I wouldn't touch it for another extension.

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On 11/21/2019 at 5:36 AM, Falcons Fan MVP said:

I think when Matt Ryan retires we should try to sign an aging veteran like Derek Carr who might have 3-4 years left in them. Keep the team talented enough every year to be a contender.

You may be onto something with this, but it would have to be the right guy. The price would have to be right as well. Still that is probably a far more workable solution than drafting a QB and then hoping he beats the long odds and turns out to be another Ryan, Rodgers, Breese or Brady. We've seen teams whiff on 1st Round QB picks often enough to know even the top three or four aren't necessarily going to be franchise-level QB's.

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On 11/21/2019 at 11:10 AM, Geneaut said:

Here's my QB scenario.

Churn the bottom end of the draft/UDFA for a year or 2 just on the off chance you find a nugget. See what Benkert shows us in training camp this season. I wanted Tyree Jackson this year ( big kid big arm ... didn't stick in Buffalo so he probably wouldn't have stuck here either ). Maybe sign a Rosen type in FA.

When Matt is getting around the 2-3 year mark of ending his contract start looking hard at guys in the draft then. I think when Matt is at 2 years from the end of his contract you either draft a young gunslinger or find a young QB FA like Bridgewater that you might reclaim. That gives you a couple of seasons to see what you've got and if they aren't working you still have a draft and offseason to address it. I also realize we can't just assume Matt will play to the end of his contract so waiting that long isn't prudent either unless Benkert or one of the other guys we've tried to develop ( Etling anyone?) actually pan out.

Taking someone you have to sink serious draft capital in this offseason is probably a waste of resources. Use patience and strike when the return is good. I suspect in a draft between now and Matt retiring there will be a deep QB class that we can take advantage of.

Have to agree with you. The temptation is there, but there really is no urgency for the Falcons to grab somebody right now and start grooming them at QB. Even next year's draft is still probably way too soon to consider investing serious draft capital in a QB pick.

If we get the solid OL we're steadily working toward, Ryan will be able to sit back in the pocket and pass and run this offense for at least three or 4 more years barring a catastrophic injury. Getting an adequate replacement for Macke is going to be a concern sooner than getting one for Matt Ryan.

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3 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I disagree that there hasn’t been declines with him. They are slight, but they are there. His arm strength is still good but there’s a bit more arc to them, and his velocity has decreased a tad. It’s negligible, but it’s there. Also, Ryan has always been d@mn near indestructible. His injury concerns me as this could be a sign that his body is finally showing signs of wear. 
 

While I agree in theory with what you’re saying in terms of midtier QB prospects, an exception needs to be considered for top tier prospects that fall. Especially ones with a huge amount of talent. 
 

I would pump the brakes on the 2015 Manning/Broncos comparison. He was  benched for Brock Osweiler (2nd Round pick) during that season. Not to mention Manning was a liability in that Super Bowl. If the Broncos defense were not elite, they would not have won that game. The 2015 Broncos defense is also considered to be one of the greatest defenses ever. 

I'm not seeing these declines, Matt looks like Matt to me.  I don't think his injury should be of any concern going forward, if you get hit enough you will eventually get injured.  It's just laws of probability.

You also just proved my point for me in regards to the Broncos and Manning...

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3 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I would in a heartbeat. Allowing him to heal is extremely important to his success. Behind Ryan he’ll be able to heal and learn the game. It’s a win/win situation. 

Well, you know, everybody has a right to their opinion, bro.  Ever since I read an article about his injury, though, (forget where it was) saying when he dislocated his hip there was a fracture somewhere in that area too, I would be concerned about him re-injuring it, or arthritis setting up in the hip joint, at some point.  So I stand by my opinion that he would be too much of a risk to think about drafting Tua... 



 

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3 hours ago, athell said:

I'm not seeing these declines, Matt looks like Matt to me.  I don't think his injury should be of any concern going forward, if you get hit enough you will eventually get injured.  It's just laws of probability.

You also just proved my point for me in regards to the Broncos and Manning...

I see things differently about declines. So we’ll have to agree to disagree on that. Ryan has been hit quite often his career. If we can mitigate that, then he’ll be fine. Unfortunately we have yet to prove that we can consistently have a good oline. 

I mean if you’re confident that we can have one of the best defenses of all time, that’s on you. Falcons have issue fielding a consistent mediocre defense let alone one that’s one of the all time greatest. 

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2 hours ago, FalconJim said:

Well, you know, everybody has a right to their opinion, bro.  Ever since I read an article about his injury, though, (forget where it was) saying when he dislocated his hip there was a fracture somewhere in that area too, I would be concerned about him re-injuring it, or arthritis setting up in the hip joint, at some point.  So I stand by my opinion that he would be too much of a risk to think about drafting Tua... 



 

It’s a significant injury, no doubt about that. I posted an article detailing the injury and the prognosis. People want to equate the injuries to Bo’s but there have literally been so many medical technological advances since then. I read somewhere that the use of the MRI has been a major one. I didn’t hear anything about a fracture but if you’re concerned with necrosis (like Bo), the chances are much better because of the aforementioned technological advances. If I recall correctly the issue with Jackson was that he had an undetected hairline fracture that caused the necrosis. 

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15 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I see things differently about declines. So we’ll have to agree to disagree on that. Ryan has been hit quite often his career. If we can mitigate that, then he’ll be fine. Unfortunately we have yet to prove that we can consistently have a good oline. 

I mean if you’re confident that we can have one of the best defenses of all time, that’s on you. Falcons have issue fielding a consistent mediocre defense let alone one that’s one of the all time greatest. 

I am not confident in us even fielding a top half defense lol...just providing an example of a better use of that pick, imo :) 

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1 hour ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

It’s a significant injury, no doubt about that. I posted an article detailing the injury and the prognosis. People want to equate the injuries to Bo’s but there have literally been so many medical technological advances since then. I read somewhere that the use of the MRI has been a major one. I didn’t hear anything about a fracture but if you’re concerned with necrosis (like Bo), the chances are much better because of the aforementioned technological advances. If I recall correctly the issue with Jackson was that he had an undetected hairline fracture that caused the necrosis. 


Yeah, the injury to Bo Jackson pretty much did him in after a few years, and really, he never did look like the same RB to me after having the hip replacement. 
But like you say, technology has come a long way since back then, and hopefully Tua's prognosis will be a lot better, and he won't have to go through anything like that! 
I wish him the best, though, because he seems like a great kid, with an awesome talent!!! 



  



 

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