Maxx Crosby: The Case For Not Trading Away Draft Capital

[FalconsIn2012 22,051]

16 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

Aaaaa ... not sure I'd say only JJ was worth it. It's a team sport and not everything comes down to raw numbers.

It's a definite cost though. I can't deny that.

I agree.  And the raw numbers say we get tunnnell vision in RD 1 and sacrifice top 100 picks to get “our” guy.

In 11 years we’ve wasted 10 top 100 picks.  
 

Falcons Picks in first 4 Rounds (2008- present): 45

Patriots Picks in first 4 Rounds (2008 -present): 61

The Patriots wanted McGary.  Did they lose their cool and move up once they realized we would probably do so? No.  They took the next guy on their board (not looking great) and kept the 3rd and drafted Chase Winovich.  
 

 

[Geneaut 5,508]

2 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I agree.  And the raw numbers say we get tunnnell vision in RD 1 and sacrifice top 100 picks to get “our” guy.

In 11 years we’ve wasted 10 top 100 picks.  
 

Falcons Picks in first 4 Rounds (2008-): 45

Patriots Picks in first 4 Rounds (2008-): 61

The Patriots wanted McGary.  Did they lose their cool and move up once they realized we would probably do so? No.  They took the next guy on their board (not looking great) and kept the 3rd and drafted Chase Winovich.  
 

 

Not sure 'wasted' is the correct term. We got some kind of value for our picks. Was it worth it? Different question.

[FalconsIn2012 22,051]

1 hour ago, Ergo Proxy said:

If there was ever a draft to trade down, it might be this one. Need roster spots instead of “1 guy away”...this is a good enough roster with a few more contributors and coaching; could be right back in the playoffs.

We need to buck the trend Nd start adding more top 100 picks.  
 

my final point on this is that we tend to over value first round picks. Look at our drafts over the past 11 years. Over half the time the best player from our draft class wasn’t our first round selection. 
 

And for a team as solid at draft evaluations as the Falcons, it makes no sense to panic and move up in the 1st

[Vandy 32,323]

3 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

We need to buck the trend Nd start adding more top 100 picks.  
 

my final point on this is that we tend to over value first round picks. Look at our drafts over the past 11 years. Over half the time the best player from our draft class wasn’t our first round selection. 
 

And for a team as solid at draft evaluations as the Falcons, it makes no sense to panic and move up in the 1st

Hopefully With 4 early picks in 1st 3 rounds, we stay put this year. 

[Vandy 32,323]

30 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

We need to buck the trend Nd start adding more top 100 picks.  
 

my final point on this is that we tend to over value first round picks. Look at our drafts over the past 11 years. Over half the time the best player from our draft class wasn’t our first round selection. 
 

And for a team as solid at draft evaluations as the Falcons, it makes no sense to panic and move up in the 1st

The law of large numbers.

[FalconsIn2012 22,051]

11 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

Not sure 'wasted' is the correct term. We got some kind of value for our picks. Was it worth it? Different question.

Actually the correct term is they gifted the value of 10 top 100 picks to teams not residing in Flowery Branch.  The players we got in all those moves are all very good. But it’s very very costly.

[FalconsIn2012 22,051]

7 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Law of large numbers.

Basic economics.

NFL rosters are built in rounds 2-5.  That’s the near & potatoes of most rosters

[Vandy 32,323]

30 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Basic economics.

NFL rosters are built in rounds 2-5.  That’s the near & potatoes of most rosters

“Near and potatoes”

wish I wasn’t such a dumb *** on tech...I would have quoted this jewel in various colors. This is the best I could do.  

 

[FalconsIn2012 22,051]

6 minutes ago, Vandy said:

“Near and potatoes”

wish I wasn’t such a dumb *** on tech...I would have quoted you in various colors. This is the best I could do.  

 

Here ya go

ABOUT DK NOUVEAU CRAYON FONT

DK Nouveau Crayon is a Crayon font that was created by David Kerkhoff in 2016. It was added to FontSpace on Oct 8, 2016

DK Nouveau Crayon is licensed as Demo, which means it is free for personal use only. To use the font commercially, you will need to purchase a license or contact David Kerkhoff

[Vandy 32,323]

36 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Here ya go

ABOUT DK NOUVEAU CRAYON FONT

DK Nouveau Crayon is a Crayon font that was created by David Kerkhoff in 2016. It was added to FontSpace on Oct 8, 2016

DK Nouveau Crayon is licensed as Demo, which means it is free for personal use only. To use the font commercially, you will need to purchase a license or contact David Kerkhoff

Please re-read what I said, ala the “tech dumb a r s e” part. You don’t quite understand my predicament Stu if you believe I can grasp or follow those instructions.

I have people for that, thank god. But not sure how well it would go over requesting color fonts. 

[ATLSlobberKnockers 6,202]

10 hours ago, Geneaut said:

I think if you I’d trade up you absolutely have to knock it out of the park. If you trade up for JAG then you’ve been wasteful. if you trade up for Tony Gonzalez like KC did then you were correct to do so. If you trade up for Sam Baker then you’ve got a case for discussion. 
 

I still don’t think you can only have one strategy in the draft. 

I agree. I don't do absolutes because it takes options away

[ATLSlobberKnockers 6,202]

4 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

We need to buck the trend Nd start adding more top 100 picks.  
 

my final point on this is that we tend to over value first round picks. Look at our drafts over the past 11 years. Over half the time the best player from our draft class wasn’t our first round selection. 
 

And for a team as solid at draft evaluations as the Falcons, it makes no sense to panic and move up in the 1st

I would like to sit this year. Idl trading up for a Desmond Trufant when a Rhodes is there

[Schwarzwald 17,066]

5 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I agree.  And the raw numbers say we get tunnnell vision in RD 1 and sacrifice top 100 picks to get “our” guy.

In 11 years we’ve wasted 10 top 100 picks.  
 

Falcons Picks in first 4 Rounds (2008- present): 45

Patriots Picks in first 4 Rounds (2008 -present): 61

The Patriots wanted McGary.  Did they lose their cool and move up once they realized we would probably do so? No.  They took the next guy on their board (not looking great) and kept the 3rd and drafted Chase Winovich.  
 

 

Back up to this:

1) It was the Falcons that jumped the Patriots. Period. We made the preemptive move there.

2) They took a WR immediately after that hasn’t done anything for them at all so far. (Which you indicated but naturally early to grade picks)

3) They LATER drafted the other tier of OTs rather than...trading back for someone of the Ford/Risner/Taylor/Little mold etc post Kaleb off the board.

4) AFTER the draft, they scramble and make trades for OL help.

We “did” have extra draft capital this draft and were not 1 player away BUT were definitely a complete OL overhaul in need. It cost us our 3rd rounder. We salvaged some of that if Sheffield can become a long term starter. Anyone else is a bonus; such as Cominsky year 2, etc.

We missing Lindstrom all year. His strength seemed to be pass blocking. And, run blocking has been lacking most of the year with this shift in scheme. We’re a team close enough that fixing the OL and DQ actually making enough of the difference as DC should have been in the playoff hunt right now. The 2020 cap situation was always gonna hit the fan and now we definitely are pressed the Keep picks or move down when appropriate/strategically sound.

[FalconsIn2012 22,051]

22 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Back up to this:

1) It was the Falcons that jumped the Patriots. Period. We made the preemptive move there.

2) They took a WR immediately after that hasn’t done anything for them at all so far. (Which you indicated but naturally early to grade picks)

3) They LATER drafted the other tier of OTs rather than...trading back for someone of the Ford/Risner/Taylor/Little mold etc post Kaleb off the board.

4) AFTER the draft, they scramble and make trades for OL help.

We “did” have extra draft capital this draft and were not 1 player away BUT were definitely a complete OL overhaul in need. It cost us our 3rd rounder. We salvaged some of that if Sheffield can become a long term starter. Anyone else is a bonus; such as Cominsky year 2, etc.

We missing Lindstrom all year. His strength seemed to be pass blocking. And, run blocking has been lacking most of the year with this shift in scheme. We’re a team close enough that fixing the OL and DQ actually making enough of the difference as DC should have been in the playoff hunt right now. The 2020 cap situation was always gonna hit the fan and now we definitely are pressed the Keep picks or move down when appropriate/strategically sound.

But they went about it the right way.  Keep your picks.  No tunnel vision.  If you can’t get your guy in the draft, use FA.  You can’t focus your entire offseason on one guy...if GM does so of course  you’ll panic.  Trufant is a prime example

[Schwarzwald 17,066]

3 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

But they went about it the right way.  Keep your picks.  No tunnel vision.  If you can’t get your guy in the draft, use FA.  You can focus your entire offseason on one guy...if GM you do of course you’ll panic.  Trufant is a prime example

I just wanted to make it clear they couldn’t get Kaleb from your post. We made the move because of our intel and wanted to secure RT. 

Of course, that’s besides the point as it’s a good thing to consider waiting and stockpiling picks if trading down; to your point.

I thought the Pats might trade down or take another OT there. Kaleb was a clean fit for them. And, I believe they did trade some draft picks for the other OL the acquired outside of the draft.

Could you expound on your Trufant ref? Thanks.

[FalconsIn2012 22,051]

5 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

I just wanted to make it clear they couldn’t get Kaleb from your post. We made the move because of our intel and wanted to secure RT. 

Of course, that’s besides the point as it’s a good thing to consider waiting and stockpiling picks if trading down; to your point.

I thought the Pats might trade down or take another OT there. Kaleb was a clean fit for them. And, I believe they did trade some draft picks for the other OL the acquired outside of the draft.

Could you expound on your Trufant ref? Thanks.

They had two 2nd round picks and three in the 3rd along with 2 in 4th.  I really thought they were going to move up for the Giants rookie QB

[81KJW 103]

On 11/19/2019 at 5:11 PM, FalconsIn2012 said:

I know guys like @Knight of God, @Vandy, @MSalmon, @Ovie_Lover & @athell really liked Maxx Crosby leading up to the draft.  I had him mocked to us once Chuck Smith called him “different.”  And apparently all were right.  It really would have been nice to have a 3rd round pick last year to draft Maxx.  He was on our radar, too

 

Maxx Crosby Since Week 5:

Once he took over the starting spot in Week 5, Crosby has accumulated 6.5 sacks in the last 6 games.  He also has 20 combined TFL/QB hits and 3 FF’s.  
 

Hopefully the trend of using a 2nd or 3rd round pick to move up in the 1st round stops.  So many quality players are taken in rounds 2, 3 & 4.  

yes, it will be nice to have him but DQ probably have no idea how to use him.

[LouDog 3,642]

31 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

But they went about it the right way.  Keep your picks.  No tunnel vision.  If you can’t get your guy in the draft, use FA.  You can’t focus your entire offseason on one guy...if GM does so of course  you’ll panic.  Trufant is a prime example

They also just traded a 2nd round pick for Sanu. Every team has to reach for a specific need from time to time

Edited November 23 by LouDog

[Schwarzwald 17,066]

1 minute ago, LouDog said:

They just traded a 2nd round pick for Sanu. Every team has to reach for a specific need from time to time

Patriots are the keeper of slot receivers. It is known.

[LouDog 3,642]

5 minutes ago, 81KJW said:

yes, it will be nice to have him but DQ probably have no idea how to use him.

Is he too tall?

[FalconsIn2012 22,051]

7 minutes ago, LouDog said:

They also just traded a 2nd round pick for Sanu. Every team has to reach for a specific need from time to time

Bill will trade draft picks for a known commodity.  He accumulates draft picks to use in the draft and trade as commodities to improve his roster via free agency and trade.

[WhenFalconsWin 23,991]

On 11/19/2019 at 7:25 PM, Falcons_Frenzy said:

If the Falcons had drafted Crosby he would likely be sitting on the bench behind Takk and Vic and nobody would know what the Falcons have, including the Falcons. 

This sounds all to familiar. 

[ATLSlobberKnockers 6,202]

On 11/21/2019 at 6:22 PM, FalconsIn2012 said:

I’d prefer not.  Top 100 picks are gold

The more Ive thought about it the more I agree with you. You've persuaded me. Top 100 picks are gold, and it is to a large degree a numbers game.

However i do agree with the trade we made for Kaleb because we would have lost out. For d hasnt bee n as good as Tayler and Kaleb, since hes averaging just 60% of offensive snaps with 89% being his biggest game. Other than the ti me kaleb missed with injury he and taylor have played 100% of snaps all season. The trufan t, and takk examples support your premise much better since rhodes a nd Watt were right behind them.

[ATLSlobberKnockers 6,202]

On 11/22/2019 at 2:01 PM, Geneaut said:

Aaaaa ... not sure I'd say only JJ was worth it. It's a team sport and not everything comes down to raw numbers.

It's a definite cost though. I can't deny that.

Trufant and takk werent. Could have had rhodes and watt if we had sat. Theres definitely merit to what hes saying but the trade for kaleb was.worth it. He looks to be a future fringe probowl RT to me, and if we hadnt done it we would be burning a top 50 pick on a.RT this year when we could potentialy find Macks replacement there, and have a totally tevamped OL via draft picks.

 

[Fleurieu falcon 7]

With the salary issues they have.  This might be the year we keep all the picks . ( cheap rookie contracts ).