FalconsIn2012

Maxx Crosby: The Case For Not Trading Away Draft Capital

200 posts in this topic

19 minutes ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

Imma be honest with ya. Not in the mood or time to read it right now. It'll probably be about 3 days. Real talk.

I liked it because you had it on deck

I like the honesty.  A cliff notes version:

 

”It’s so difficult, in the clammy, gripping environment of the draft-day war room, to leave that stud built like a Zeus statue on the board, and swap downward for multiple picks. Yet that is what Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business and Nobel Prize winner Richard H. Thaler of the University of Chicago advise, based on years of research into NFL drafts. They produced papers in 2005 and again in 2012 that showed teams profoundly overvalue first-round picks and simply don’t have the ability they think they do to discern between a great player and a good one.

How often is a team right in picking a high-first-rounder? What will be the quantifiable difference between the top choice taken at a position in the 2019 draft in Nashville, and the next available player, or even the third or fourth, in terms of games started and potential Pro Bowl success? You’d think it would be a lot, given all that teams invest. In fact, they prove right only a “sobering” 52 percent of the time, according to Massey.”

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I'm of the opinion there's no exact 'right way' to do the draft. What works for Team A might not work for Team B. What worked for Team A last draft might not be the correct strategy for Team A in this draft.

What you have to do is hit on your picks, and if you trade up for guys you are putting yourself at risk if you miss because now you've used 2 picks ( or more in JJs case ) and the risk is higher.

So in theory, I get the point and mathematically I agree, but at times you have to make a move on a player you think is an outstanding difference-maker. Is Kaleb that guy ... too early to tell.

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22 minutes ago, Godzilla1985 said:

We’re sitting on two 2nd round picks this year. No need to use one of those to jump up.  That’s 3 day two picks.

Right now, we've got four top 100 picks. That's a very good situation. Depending on the cuts they make, they can reshape the roster pretty quickly with that kind of draft capital. You can go DT, DE, LB, S with that alone. 

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53 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Being fair on this - and again, I wanted Crosby - he and Cominsky were both projected 5th or 6th round picks by most places. In all likelihood, if we took Crosby in the third, people would scream about another 3rd round Dimi reach and be even more upset when he didn't get play time this year. 

Great point.

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Godzilla1985 said:

We’re sitting on two 2nd round picks this year. No need to use one of those to jump up.  That’s 3 day two picks.

 

28 minutes ago, vel said:

Right now, we've got four top 100 picks. That's a very good situation. Depending on the cuts they make, they can reshape the roster pretty quickly with that kind of draft capital. You can go DT, DE, LB, S with that alone. 

Peeps complained, but that Sanu trade was a sneaky good trade by TD. 

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19 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

teams just aren't that good at evaluating a player's chance of success

The true issue is that no post draft analysis about pre-draft value can ever be considered factual. It can't be, Ever. Because in post draft you are valuing the player based on NFL performance versus the position he was drafted. This is a very static, measurable and empirical data set. Player 10 performed better than player 12,33,54 so player 10's draft position should be X. Pre-draft you can only value a player based on chances of success or failure. Were all the Tom Brady, Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, Julio Jones, and all the other top players at their position drafted appropriately in their respective drafts? Obviously the answer is no because we now know the value of these players and that they are generational players that easily could have gone #1-3 in their respective drafts.

I understand probability and that with more picks you are increasing your odds of selecting "an NFL player". Problem is NFL teams don't want "a guy". They want a star, a play maker, a face of a franchise. There is money in that for the owners and you are only kidding yourself if you think winning is the only goal. As an example, Carolina sold for 2+billion dollars just last year and I don't call that a winning franchise.

 

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11 hours ago, gazoo said:

If we pick a top rated DT with our top pick, and see an awesome pass rusher we all like  lower in round 1, should we still just wait until later rounds to draft a pass rusher since guys like Maxx Crosby can be had in later rounds or should we consider trading up to get the pass rusher ? 

Or maybe we get a top rated pass rusher with our 1st round pick, but there is a game changer DT sitting there late in round 1 that we also need. Should we trade up for the game changer DT, or just wait until later rounds since guys like Grady Jarrett are available in late rounds? 

I am a case by case guy.  I lean towards wanting to trade back and collect more picks, so that we have more flexibility, but  doing as the OP is saying could amount to "paralysis by analysis".  If YOUR guy is there, go get him.  If he's not, and you like a guy that you could get 10 picks later just as much as the guy you can get at your current pick, trade down.  I don't believe in a "one size fits all" type of mentality. Going into the last draft we really needed a DT, a DE, and OL.  It was going to be darn near impossible to fix the DL & the OL in the same draft.  I feel like we fixed one, or at least took a really good stab at it.  I can't complain one bit with how the draft was handled.  

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31 minutes ago, Vandy said:

 

Peeps complained, but that Sanu trade was a sneaky good trade by TD. 

Very good. It's opened the door to a more diverse passing attack with Gage, Hardy, and Blake getting real snaps now. Will miss him on third downs, but a 2nd was a no brainer. 

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1 hour ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Or Gono, who coaches seem to really like.  And we don’t know how good or bad Ty would have been with a decent Guard next to him.  In this scenerio, the FO could have signed Toilolo over Stocker to help with the edge on the right side 

I think most of us do have a pretty good idea of how good Sombrero would have been...

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12 hours ago, gazoo said:

If we pick a top rated DT with our top pick, and see an awesome pass rusher we all like  lower in round 1, should we still just wait until later rounds to draft a pass rusher since guys like Maxx Crosby can be had in later rounds or should we consider trading up to get the pass rusher ? 

Or maybe we get a top rated pass rusher with our 1st round pick, but there is a game changer DT sitting there late in round 1 that we also need. Should we trade up for the game changer DT, or just wait until later rounds since guys like Grady Jarrett are available in late rounds? 

The point is teams don't actually know any player is a game changer. The Falcons have been pretty good at getting at least a decent player when they trade up. Julio has obviously been great and Trufant, Takk, and McGary have all been between decent and good. 

But other teams have whiffed in spectacular fashion. Mitchell Trubisky, Dion Jordan, Blaine Gabbert, Trent Richardson, Tim Tebow, Derrick Harvey, and Johnny Manziel, among others, were all picked after teams traded up to get them. 

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31 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

I am a case by case guy.  I lean towards wanting to trade back and collect more picks, so that we have more flexibility, but  doing as the OP is saying could amount to "paralysis by analysis".  If YOUR guy is there, go get him.  If he's not, and you like a guy that you could get 10 picks later just as much as the guy you can get at your current pick, trade down.  I don't believe in a "one size fits all" type of mentality. Going into the last draft we really needed a DT, a DE, and OL.  It was going to be darn near impossible to fix the DL & the OL in the same draft.  I feel like we fixed one, or at least took a really good stab at it.  I can't complain one bit with how the draft was handled.  

I agree with this mostly...but I’ll ask a question: when has TD ever moved back in the 1st round to get a guy they like a few picks later?  How often has he done the opposite.  
 

TD is often guilty of chasing a player he falls in love with

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12 hours ago, LouDog said:

What about the Julio trade?

Julio I love so I can’t be mad.  But to think it had no negative impact, especially on 2013/2014 would be a reach.  Moving up in the 1st is costly.  Except for QB I would almost never consider it

Julio Cost: 1st round, 2nd round, two 4th round 

Tru Cost: move 8 spots cost a 3rd & 6th.  Could stay put and draft Rhodes

Takk Cost: move 3 spots cost 3rd & 6th.

McGary Cost: 3rd round 

Sam Baker:  cost two 2nd round picks and a 4th to move back into 1st round.

 

Thats a 1st, three 2nd’s, two 3rd’s and three 4th’s.  I’d say only Julio has been worth it

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5 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Yeah, it's really worked out great. :ninja:

People that don’t think TD gets tunnel vision and chases players, read the interview after drafting Trufant

Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff targeted a player and made a trade to land him in the NFL draft Thursday night.

It’s who we had focused on all throughout the offseason,” Dimitroff said. “We were very fortunate because it was a very eventful middle of the first round. It was very, very active with a lot of trade discussions.

The Falcons knew they had to get in front of Minnesota to select Trufant. The Vikings had the 23rd and 25th picks. They ended up selecting Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes.

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To the OP's point, it's all a crapshoot. The more picks you have, the higher the likelihood of success.  

Another reason why I believe tanking is silly. Much of TAFT had a hard-on last year hoping we tanked or traded up for Ed Oliver <cough cough>.....and he's been far less impressive than the guy a few of us wanted in Dexter Lawrence <cough cough>  who we could have had staying out at Pick 14. 
 

Won’t go so low as to mentioning any TAFTer’s names.....  :ninja:....no sir, not me.....would never stoop that low....<cough cough>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 @g-dawg <cough cough>

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5 minutes ago, Vandy said:

To the OP's point, it's all a crapshoot. The more picks you have, the higher the likelihood of success.  

Another reason why I believe tanking is silly. Much of TAFT had a hard-on last year hoping we tanked or traded up for Ed Oliver <cough cough> @g-dawg, .....and he's been far less impressive than the guy a few of us wanted in Dexter Lawrence, who we could have had at 14. 

Dex has been better than Quinnen Williams who people were willing to sacrifice multiple first round picks to move up and draft

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15 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

The Falcons knew they had to get in front of Minnesota to select Trufant. The Vikings had the 23rd and 25th picks. They ended up selecting Florida State cornerback Xavier Rhodes.

This is ultimately the point. Even if the player you really really want gets picked by someone else, there are still other talented players available, like Xavier Rhodes. You just have to know how to pick them. 

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2 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

This is ultimately the point. Even if the player you really really want gets picked by someone else, there are still other talented players available, like Xavier Rhodes. You just have to know how to pick them. 

It’s the entire point.  Rhodes plus our 3rd & 6th round pick is smarter than moving up for Trufant.  And I like Tru more than most on here

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I understand the anti-tankers, but I do not agree with their logic.

First of all, there is no such thing as momentum carrying over from one season to the next.

Secondly, higher draft picks in every round are better assets than lower draft picks.  The value of those higher picks can bring multiple draft picks.

So strategically, it may be beneficial to rest your more valuable players at the end of a losing season.  I am not saying that anyone should intentionally lose.  I am simply arguing that protecting your greatest assets in a sport rife with injuries AND also benefit in the offseason to make moves that can ultimately improve your future roster may be wise

 

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McGary would have been available in the 2nd Round.

T.D and Quinn seemed desperate to appease some fans outcry for O-Linemen that they over-drafted both.

I like McGary, but he

has little Left Tackle potential.

Do not draft a OT who does not have the body-type or physical potential to play Left-Tackle - if needed. I like McGary, but not the trade-up.

Stop reaching to appease the fans too much. It is like going to the grocery store while hungry 

The Falcons appear to be winning 3-4 more games and o have a 7-9 record again.

All hopes for Young at DE, Okudah for CB, Thomas for RT or LT.

What needs fixing should be obvious. 

No Safeties.

No 4-3 OLBs

No TEs

No WRs.

Do not traded-away any of the two 2nd round picks!!!!

A good prospect will drop!

 

Edited by Rise

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2 hours ago, Vandy said:

 

Peeps complained, but that Sanu trade was a sneaky good trade by TD. 

Yep and with thee emergence of a Blake or Zaccheus this off season maybe we have ready made replacements waiting in the wings.It pretty much means you don’t look WRer till much later in the draft.

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