FalconsIn2012

Maxx Crosby: The Case For Not Trading Away Draft Capital

200 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, gazoo said:

McGary has a rare blend of size, strength, power, athleticism and mobility. Very rare.  His arrow is straight up.

 

I like McGary.  What I don’t like is wasting a 3rd round pick to get him.  Let the draft fall to you.  Don’t go chasing players

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3 hours ago, Geneaut said:

So let Matt get his @ss beat all season? Got it. Great way to protect the $30M investment. 

To be fair, Koetter waiting until Matt was hurt to call the quick game after trying to constantly drop back and just unload vs the Rams killed him first :tiphat:

Fowler worked Kaleb and Matthews. Heck, first play of the game Donald DESTROYED IN MICROSECONDS Matthews but he kinda does that to every OL...

What we did for the OL this season, we should be trying to do for the DL next season; minus a weird system fit requiring a scheme adjustment like Carp. I don’t mind overpaying some for Brown. I think Brown; given his age, “could” become a solid starter.

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I think a bit different where and what you give up for a guy.

I think it’s more important what you do as a franchise once you get the player in the door.

If you are a franchise comfortable in your ability to develop players then how many picks you have doesn’t really matter so much.It just puts more pressure on you to develop what you’ve picked.

Oline is one of thee harder positions to develop because of what there taught and playing in at college.Hence why there are so many that struggle coming out.

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17 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I like McGary.  What I don’t like is wasting a 3rd round pick to get him.  Let the draft fall to you.  Don’t go chasing players

There is some argument for also getting 2 OL on rookie deals :shrug:(meant to say with 5th year option)

Think about it. This season is a wash and we have the “core” locked up. We leveraged our 3rd into a cheap RT for 4 more years.

Its true we missed in some picks between our original 3rd and Sheffield but you can’t get everyone plus we don’t know what John might become himself. Already wasted a pick in Green. I’m hoping Ollison can become a decent role player at least.

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23 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I like McGary.  What I don’t like is wasting a 3rd round pick to get him.  Let the draft fall to you.  Don’t go chasing players

What about the Julio trade?

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28 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I like McGary.  What I don’t like is wasting a 3rd round pick to get him.  Let the draft fall to you.  Don’t go chasing players

If we pick a top rated DT with our top pick, and see an awesome pass rusher we all like  lower in round 1, should we still just wait until later rounds to draft a pass rusher since guys like Maxx Crosby can be had in later rounds or should we consider trading up to get the pass rusher ? 

Or maybe we get a top rated pass rusher with our 1st round pick, but there is a game changer DT sitting there late in round 1 that we also need. Should we trade up for the game changer DT, or just wait until later rounds since guys like Grady Jarrett are available in late rounds? 

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32 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I like McGary.  What I don’t like is wasting a 3rd round pick to get him.  Let the draft fall to you.  Don’t go chasing players

Except were starting Ty S by using that strategy.

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6 minutes ago, gazoo said:

If we pick a top rated DT with our top pick, and see an awesome pass rusher we all like  lower in round 1, should we still just wait until later rounds to draft a pass rusher since guys like Maxx Crosby can be had in later rounds or should we consider trading up to get the pass rusher ? 

Or maybe we get a top rated pass rusher with our 1st round pick, but there is a game changer DT sitting there late in round 1 that we also need. Should we trade up for the game changer DT, or just wait until later rounds since guys like Grady Jarrett are available in late rounds? 

Its all a crap shoot. You go after the guys you think will help the most. Period. Sure youll miss out on an occasional mid round gem  but yoj miss out on the Julio Jones's of the world too. Of couse I realize you know that. I just dont get the second guessing

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10 minutes ago, gazoo said:

If we pick a top rated DT with our top pick, and see an awesome pass rusher we all like  lower in round 1, should we still just wait until later rounds to draft a pass rusher since guys like Maxx Crosby can be had in later rounds or should we consider trading up to get the pass rusher ? 

Or maybe we get a top rated pass rusher with our 1st round pick, but there is a game changer DT sitting there late in round 1 that we also need. Should we trade up for the game changer DT, or just wait until later rounds since guys like Grady Jarrett are available in late rounds? 

And never draft a QB untill rnd 3 or ater bc of RW and TB.

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35 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

There is some argument for also getting 2 OL on rookie deals :shrug:(meant to say with 5th year option)

Think about it. This season is a wash and we have the “core” locked up. We leveraged our 3rd into a cheap RT for 4 more years.

Its true we missed in some picks between our original 3rd and Sheffield but you can’t get everyone plus we don’t know what John might become himself. Already wasted a pick in Green. I’m hoping Ollison can become a decent role player at least

Agree Olliso n needs more short yardage carries. And great point in 5thyear option.

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14 minutes ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Its all a crap shoot. You go after the guys you think will help the most. Period. Sure youll miss out on an occasional mid round gem  but yoj miss out on the Julio Jones's of the world too. Of couse I realize you know that. I just dont get the second guessing

What gets me is those who cherry pick a single player in a lower round where you traded a pick to move up with, and use that cherry picked player as "we could have had" best player chosen in that round (that would have been picked higher if teams knew they'd be that good) , without also admitting there was a far bigger chance we "could have had" any of the busts that were picked in that round as well.   (instead of a 1/32 chance we get the good one, there would be a 31/32 chance we  don't get the good one.)

There are always going to be gems picked in later rounds that surprise every team, including the one that picked them.  Raiders wouldn't have waited until round 4 for Maxx, we wouldn't have waited until round 5 for Grady, had either of our teams realized just how good they were going to be. If we had realized it, so would everyone else. 

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6 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Taylor and Ford are having identical seasons to Kaleb.  Could have drafted either and kept our 3rd

Lol. Taylor and Ford having identical seasons? Ford is averaging 60% of offensive snaps and has yet to log even 90% in a single game.  You cant even compare For d to Kaleb and Taylor

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5 minutes ago, gazoo said:

What gets me is those who cherry pick a single player in a lower round where you traded a pick to move up with, and use that cherry picked player as "we could have had" best player chosen in that round (that would have been picked higher if teams knew they'd be that good) , without also admitting there was a far bigger chance we "could have had" any of the busts that were picked in that round as well.   (instead of a 1/32 chance we get the good one, there would be a 31/32 chance we  don't get the good one.)

There are always going to be gems picked in later rounds that surprise every team, including the one that picked them.  Raiders wouldn't have waited until round 4 for Maxx, we wouldn't have waited until round 5 for Grady, had either of our teams realized just how good they were going to be. If we had realized it, so would everyone else. 

And the premise is flawed im that EVERY team in the league passed on him in thr 3rd. What makes him think he would have been our pick? 

For the sake of arguing what if we would have moved up to take hi m in the 4th? Would he be praising the idea of moving up in the draft or !aking this same thread about Sheffiel d?

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17 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I know guys like @Knight of God, @Vandy, @MSalmon, @Ovie_Lover & @athell really liked Maxx Crosby leading up to the draft.  I had him mocked to us once Chuck Smith called him “different.”  And apparently all were right.  It really would have been nice to have a 3rd round pick last year to draft Maxx.  He was on our radar, too

 

Maxx Crosby Since Week 5:

Once he took over the starting spot in Week 5, Crosby has accumulated 6.5 sacks in the last 6 games.  He also has 20 combined TFL/QB hits and 3 FF’s.  
 

Hopefully the trend of using a 2nd or 3rd round pick to move up in the 1st round stops.  So many quality players are taken in rounds 2, 3 & 4.  

What I liked about Crosby was how well he used his hands in college, very unusual to see at his level. All which makes it very difficult for OL to latch onto him.  He’s a fighter. 
 

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9 hours ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

And the premise is flawed im that EVERY team in the league passed on him in thr 3rd. What makes him think he would have been our pick? 

For the sake of arguing what if we would have moved up to take hi m in the 4th? Would he be praising the idea of moving up in the draft or !aking this same thread about Sheffiel d?

Agreed. The fact Brady was there in the 6th, Grady was there in the 5th, Maxx Crosby was there in the 4th, means every team in NFL overlooked Brady at least 5 times, Grady at least 4 times and Crosby at least 3 times. It means no NFL team realized how good they were going to be,

So this notion “we didn’t have to trade a lower round pick to move up because X was there in round 4,5 or 6” is a fallacious hindsight argument that assumes we knew something that no team knew. Furthermore, we also could have had any number of busts that were picked in that round as well. 

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16 hours ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

I know guys like @Knight of God, @Vandy, @MSalmon, @Ovie_Lover & @athell really liked Maxx Crosby leading up to the draft.  I had him mocked to us once Chuck Smith called him “different.”  And apparently all were right.  It really would have been nice to have a 3rd round pick last year to draft Maxx.  He was on our radar, too

 

Maxx Crosby Since Week 5:

Once he took over the starting spot in Week 5, Crosby has accumulated 6.5 sacks in the last 6 games.  He also has 20 combined TFL/QB hits and 3 FF’s.  
 

Hopefully the trend of using a 2nd or 3rd round pick to move up in the 1st round stops.  So many quality players are taken in rounds 2, 3 & 4.  

Here's my issue with this logic. It's anecdotal.

I'm sure there are examples of when trading up in this same instance capitalized on the moment.

Now my defense of the trade up doesn't come from a position of "I'm all about trading." I'm really of the mindset that you do whatever strategy makes sense contextually for the good of your team for the present and future.

One draft that may mean standing pat and the next it may mean trading up. 

The true process is to have a solid scouting practice and a solid system. Trust it, then draft off of that. I think we are too caught up in trading up or trading down or staying as is without context of the process that goes into each individual decision.

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9 hours ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Except were starting Ty S by using that strategy.

Or Gono, who coaches seem to really like.  And we don’t know how good or bad Ty would have been with a decent Guard next to him.  In this scenerio, the FO could have signed Toilolo over Stocker to help with the edge on the right side 

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Yeah I liked Crosby. It was funny I remember watching the combine and Mayock was being interviewed by NFL network whilst Crosby was running his forty and you could tell he was a big fan. Not surprising that he ended up a Raider.

I've still got high hopes for Cominsky though. He's a different player and not an out an out edge guy like Crosby but I think he'll come good in year 2 or 3.

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14 minutes ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

Here's my issue with this logic. It's anecdotal.

I'm sure there are examples of when trading up in this same instance capitalized on the moment.

Now my defense of the trade up doesn't come from a position of "I'm all about trading." I'm really of the mindset that you do whatever strategy makes sense contextually for the good of your team for the present and future.

One draft that may mean standing pat and the next it may mean trading up. 

The true process is to have a solid scouting practice and a solid system. Trust it, then draft off of that. I think we are too caught up in trading up or trading down or staying as is without context of the process that goes into each individual decision.

This world-renowned analysis really transformed my thought process on the draft.  It’s worth the read:

 

The big mistake lots of NFL teams make in the draft, according to economists

In last year's NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills traded up from the eighth pick to the fourth to take receiver Sammy Watkins. To do so, they gave up their first pick this year, 19th overall.

Watkins has had a solid start to his career. But the receiver the Bills could've taken if they'd stayed put — Odell Beckham Jr. — was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and already looks to be a generational talent.

 TEAMS SHOULD NEVER TRADE UP — AND SHOULD TRADE DOWN WHENEVER THEY GET AN OFFER

It's always easy to pick apart draft decisions in retrospect. But this mistake was utterly predictable — and it remains a mistake whether Watkins ends up a better player than Beckham or not.

series of papers by economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler has shown that at any given position, historically, the odds of the top player picked (Watkins) being better than the third player picked (Beckham) is just 55 percent or so.

It's basically a coin flip," Massey, who serves as a draft consultant with several NFL teams, told me last year, "but teams are paying a great deal for the right to call which side of the coin."

Because teams just aren't that good at evaluating a player's chance of success, Massey and Thaler's analysis says in the current trade market, teams are better off trading down whenever they get an offer — that is, trading one high pick for multiple lower ones, in order to diversify risk. But many teams, like the Bills, become overconfident in their evaluation of one particular player and do the opposite: they package several slightly lower picks for the right to take one player very early.

 

It's just not worth it to trade up

 

In their first paper, Massey and Thaler studied 1,078 draft pick trades made between 1990 and 2008. This let them determine the value teams got in return when they traded away each pick in the first five rounds of the draft:

Screen_Shot_2014-05-05_at_12.55.38_PM.png

 

The most important thing about this graph: the curve is very, very sharp in the first round. That means teams think the very top picks are extremely valuable: the value of the 10th pick is only about half that of the first pick.

Now, it's worth pointing out that for years, most teams followed something called "the Chart,"which assigned values to each pick in the draft for trade purposes. Since 2008, many teams have smartly stopped treating the Chart as gospel, and the curve has become slightly less steep.

 

Contonued....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2015/4/30/8516007/nfl-draft-economics

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2 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

This world-renowned analysis really transformed my thought process on the draft.  It’s worth the read:

 

The big mistake lots of NFL teams make in the draft, according to economists

In last year's NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills traded up from the eighth pick to the fourth to take receiver Sammy Watkins. To do so, they gave up their first pick this year, 19th overall.

Watkins has had a solid start to his career. But the receiver the Bills could've taken if they'd stayed put — Odell Beckham Jr. — was named Offensive Rookie of the Year and already looks to be a generational talent.

 TEAMS SHOULD NEVER TRADE UP — AND SHOULD TRADE DOWN WHENEVER THEY GET AN OFFER

It's always easy to pick apart draft decisions in retrospect. But this mistake was utterly predictable — and it remains a mistake whether Watkins ends up a better player than Beckham or not.

series of papers by economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler has shown that at any given position, historically, the odds of the top player picked (Watkins) being better than the third player picked (Beckham) is just 55 percent or so.

It's basically a coin flip," Massey, who serves as a draft consultant with several NFL teams, told me last year, "but teams are paying a great deal for the right to call which side of the coin."

Because teams just aren't that good at evaluating a player's chance of success, Massey and Thaler's analysis says in the current trade market, teams are better off trading down whenever they get an offer — that is, trading one high pick for multiple lower ones, in order to diversify risk. But many teams, like the Bills, become overconfident in their evaluation of one particular player and do the opposite: they package several slightly lower picks for the right to take one player very early.

 

It's just not worth it to trade up

 

In their first paper, Massey and Thaler studied 1,078 draft pick trades made between 1990 and 2008. This let them determine the value teams got in return when they traded away each pick in the first five rounds of the draft:

Screen_Shot_2014-05-05_at_12.55.38_PM.png

 

The most important thing about this graph: the curve is very, very sharp in the first round. That means teams think the very top picks are extremely valuable: the value of the 10th pick is only about half that of the first pick.

Now, it's worth pointing out that for years, most teams followed something called "the Chart,"which assigned values to each pick in the draft for trade purposes. Since 2008, many teams have smartly stopped treating the Chart as gospel, and the curve has become slightly less steep.

 

Contonued....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2015/4/30/8516007/nfl-draft-economics

Imma be honest with ya. Not in the mood or time to read it right now. It'll probably be about 3 days. Real talk.

I liked it because you had it on deck

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