If Dan Quinn’s return doesn’t hinge on playoffs, how low should Falcons set the bar?

[Goober Pyle]

https://theathletic.com/1389660/2019/11/18/schultz-if-dan-quinns-return-doesnt-hinge-on-playoffs-how-low-should-falcons-set-the-bar/?source=shared-article

 

If Dan Quinn’s future hinges on making the playoffs, there’s really no decision to make. The Falcons dug themselves a crater with a 1-7 start. Their postseason chances, listed at less than one percent by analytics sites two weeks ago, remain at less than one percent after consecutive wins over New Orleans and Carolina. Biblical plagues have yet to intervene.

So if this isn’t about whether Quinn will coach a playoff game this season, it’s about what would persuade owner Arthur Blank to bring Quinn back. Some around the NFL believe the bar could be as low as a 7-9 record. The idea is that Blank’s criteria will be more about the 6-2 second half than the full-season résumé.

My personal view is hiring and firing decisions should never be based on a small sample. But should the macro view include Quinn’s two playoff seasons or just the past two?

“I just want to get into this week,” Quinn said Monday when asked how he should be judged. “I recognize it’s a bottom-line business. There are consequences when you do well, and there are consequences when you don’t. But I would just rather spend time on how can we get there and play like we’re capable of playing. As far as being judged on where you’re at, I recognize it’s a results business.”

When asked if he has been told by Blank where the bar for his return sits, Quinn said, “No, and we talk weekly about the team, about where we’re at. We talk about the team a lot. But we’ve never gone further than that.”

Quinn also balked at referencing the past two wins as a turnaround, saying, “I don’t know that even qualifies as a streak. That would be an awesome Christmas question for you to ask. Or at least give us to Thanksgiving.”

He gets points for perspective.

Many have speculated about Quinn’s future. But nobody really knows what Blank is thinking, in part because even Blank’s view changes. Four weeks ago, after a 37-10 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, I wrote a column about the then 1-6 Falcons, headlined “Dan Quinn has failed, and his firing from Falcons appears inevitable.” It was a column written based not only on my own view but that of others in and around the organization.

When asked if Quinn would be fired the next day, Blank told The Athletic: “No. But that doesn’t change the record. It is what it is. It’s just very disappointing for everybody.”

Following a loss to Seattle before the Falcons’ bye week, Blank told to an assemblage of media members in a hallway at Mercedes-Benz Stadium that he would “take the next couple of weeks (to) evaluate where we are and whatever decision we make it will be for the right reasons and long term.”

Many logically concluded that if the Falcons were blown out in their next game at New Orleans, Quinn would be gone. But they won as two-touchdown underdogs and have played their two best games of the season the past two weeks.

So where do things stand now with Quinn? Here are some thoughts:

• Blank likes Quinn. Blank’s emotions are different than they were during the final days with ex-coaches Dan Reeves and Bobby Petrino. Blank is not yet at the “must fire” line like he was with Mike Smith, whom he also liked. Intellectually, Blank understands if he keeps Quinn after consecutive non-playoff seasons, regardless of the second-half record, there is going to be blowback and a potential financial ripple effect from fans. But it might take another humiliating loss to push Blank over the line, at least before the end of the season.

• Blank understands he has a shrinking window to take advantage of having Matt Ryan and Julio Jones on the roster. Ryan will be 35 next season, Jones 31. If Blank gives Quinn one more season to fix this and he fails, that means a new regime would come in before the 2021 season, when Ryan is 36 and Jones is 32.

The question becomes: Would starting with an entirely new coaching staff with a possibly new philosophy, terminology and schemes in 2020 immediately get the Falcons closer to a Super Bowl or further away? Blank hasn’t determined that, yet.

• The Falcons are a different team at 3-7 than they were at 1-7. But they’re still 3-7. Quinn carries responsibility for the start because he has been at the center of personnel and coaching staff decisions, and he wasn’t able to get players to perform to their capabilities in the first eight weeks, which is a coach’s primary job. The fact his shuffle of assistants has positively impacted the defense the past two weeks is both praise-worthy and an indictment. Mistakes were made to begin with. Raheem Morris probably should have been moved back to defense after the 2016 season, when offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan left for San Francisco and defensive coordinator Richard Smith was fired. Quinn instead promoted Marquand Manuel to the DC position. He was fired two years later.

• To his credit, Quinn actually recognized after five games that his decision to call defensive plays wasn’t working. To be clear: The Falcons are not 2-0 since Quinn stopped calling plays. It was the Arizona game in Week 6 when he first turned over most of the decisions to assistants, led by linebackers coach Jeff Ulbrich. It wasn’t an immediate success. The Falcons lost the next three games to the Cardinals (34-33), Rams (27-10) and Seahawks (27-20, with a second-half rally from 24-0 falling short).

Blank isn’t losing anything by holding onto Quinn right now. Potential replacements, whether currently in the NFL, college or sitting the season out, aren’t going anywhere.

But Blank will have to react soon. College coaches will begin making career decisions after the regular season in two weeks. Potential candidates will have conversations with possible assistants for their next staff as they prepare for interviews. Other jobs will soon open. That means competition for top candidates will increase.

So the decision is nearing. But since Blank’s “couple of weeks” comment, the view has changed. If only slightly.

 

 

[FalconBlood23]

7-9 and I would bring him back. The OC now, I would change but we would again be having instability at coaching which always causes problems. Maybe DK will be better his 2nd season

[Flying Falcon]

9 minutes ago, FalconBlood23 said:

7-9 and I would bring him back. The OC now, I would change but we would again be having instability at coaching which always causes problems. Maybe DK will be better his 2nd season

LMAO!!!!!!!

[Francis York Morgan]

37 minutes ago, FalconBlood23 said:

7-9 and I would bring him back. The OC now, I would change but we would again be having instability at coaching which always causes problems. Maybe DK will be better his 2nd season

DK really doesn't seem to improve with time. I hate the way he runs offense. But I get your point.

To that point - I think some instability at offense gives us a better shot at winning than what we have at OC now. And IF this defense isn't a mirage, a better offense could make this team a juggernaut.

[vafalconfan]

The last two games have me feeling like I'm in an alternate universe or something..almost Twilight Zone. How can this team and primarily the defense play like this? We have never seen this defense dominate like they have the past few weeks..even in the superbowl run. Let's just see how they play the bucs in our stadium before making predictions.

[FalconBlood23]

37 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

DK really doesn't seem to improve with time. I hate the way he runs offense. But I get your point.

To that point - I think some instability at offense gives us a better shot at winning than what we have at OC now. And IF this defense isn't a mirage, a better offense could make this team a juggernaut.

I agree completely, I would take the gamble and go for a WCO guy even if it causes some growing paints and he might get poached in a year or 2 but ****, I rather take that production with a solid D. That will be our best chance at a run, I have almost 0 trust in DK to gameplan and run a competent O 

[youngbloodz]

Overhaul the offensive staff and finish the season no worse than 8-8 I say bring him back

[vel]

3 hours ago, Goober Pyle said:

Intellectually, Blank understands if he keeps Quinn after consecutive non-playoff seasons, regardless of the second-half record, there is going to be blowback and a potential financial ripple effect from fans.

I disagree. I think the fans are actually coming back around. Beating the Saints always rejuvenates this fanbase. Especially on the road. If they beat the Bucs, that's a 3 game win streak headed into the Thanksgiving game. I honestly would not be surprised if that place is nuts. A 4-7 team ROCKING in the Benz for a sweep. It's very possible. If DQ goes 6-0 in the division, keeping him won't alienate this fanbase. If they end up 8-8, fans will be frustrated at the 1-7 start, but they'll see the 7-1 run and understand. Logical fans will at least. 

[blizzard_falcon]

I think he might even be safe at 6-10. That's still going 5-3 in the second half of the season. It depends on the nature of our wins and losses and if the defense continues to play well.

I just really don't want us to go 9-7 at this point. There's basically no way we'd make the playoffs, and it would really hurt our draft stock.

Yes, it's been awesome watching the team smack down the Saints and Panthers, but we still need to improve at multiple positions to have a shot at a Super Bowl run next year.

[Duff_Man]

They should just make it a fan vote. That's as low as you can go.

[MAD597]

The only thing I'm confident about with this team is whatever choice they make will be wrong choice and this team will continue to wallow in mediocrity forever.

[kschreck]

Nothing lower than 10-6 

 

In all seriousness, expectations before the season were higher than a 6 to 8 win season.  With the team starting as poorly as they did, expectations were then reduced to nothing.  I don't feel that a pass should be given because of exceeding these reduced expectations.  Certainly the last two weeks have been fun, but after last year's collapse and then misleading glimmer of hope, I don't see any reason to fall for that again.

[papachaz]

1 hour ago, vel said:

I disagree. I think the fans are actually coming back around. Beating the Saints always rejuvenates this fanbase. Especially on the road. If they beat the Bucs, that's a 3 game win streak headed into the Thanksgiving game. I honestly would not be surprised if that place is nuts. A 4-7 team ROCKING in the Benz for a sweep. It's very possible. If DQ goes 6-0 in the division, keeping him won't alienate this fanbase. If they end up 8-8, fans will be frustrated at the 1-7 start, but they'll see the 7-1 run and understand. Logical fans will at least. 

if I knew how to do it, I'd go get that Jim Mora 'playoff's' clip and change 'playoffs' to 'logical' and post it here every time someone suggests that Falcons fans, especially here in TATF could be logical

 

[kschreck]

1 hour ago, vel said:

I disagree. I think the fans are actually coming back around. Beating the Saints always rejuvenates this fanbase. Especially on the road. If they beat the Bucs, that's a 3 game win streak headed into the Thanksgiving game. I honestly would not be surprised if that place is nuts. A 4-7 team ROCKING in the Benz for a sweep. It's very possible. If DQ goes 6-0 in the division, keeping him won't alienate this fanbase. If they end up 8-8, fans will be frustrated at the 1-7 start, but they'll see the 7-1 run and understand. Logical fans will at least. 

Then consider me illogical.  While it's popular on here to bash DQ mercilessly, I actually think he has a lot of good leadership qualities.  That said, the last two seasons the team has underachieved until the season was lost.  Then, they started putting up wins. 

While there are a lot of reasons that I don't like the thought of another coaching reset.  Personally I think it's time to move on.   

[vel]

9 minutes ago, kschreck said:

Then consider me illogical.  While it's popular on here to bash DQ mercilessly, I actually think he has a lot of good leadership qualities.  That said, the last two seasons the team has underachieved until the season was lost.  Then, they started putting up wins. 

While there are a lot of reasons that I don't like the thought of another coaching reset.  Personally I think it's time to move on.   

That's fair enough to think. If DQ taking over the defense and all of the coaching issues were by Blank's desire, how does Blank fire the guy that listened to him? I think 2012 has a good point that if that was the case, it would make sense why DQ gets the full year and why he had to sell Blank on the coaching changes. When's the last time a HC had to sell the owner on internal coaching responsibility changes? That rarely happens. 

[kschreck]

If DQ felt he had to take over the defense due to pressure from AB then, 1) AB needs to stay out of coaching moves and 2) I could see how they could justify bringing him back with a strong finish.  Still wouldn't be thrilled but would at least be palatable.  

[Jesus]

I'm a Falcon fan regardless of who is coaching or playing for the team. It's all I can do as a fan.

[youngbloodz]

53 minutes ago, MAD597 said:

The only thing I'm confident about with this team is whatever choice they make will be wrong choice and this team will continue to wallow in mediocrity forever.

And you will be here to ***** and moan about it

[me4falcons]

Beating the sAints twice and going 8-8 or 9-7 would have have and big effect for me. But maybe Mr blank will consider all factors and release him.

I am good either way and Mr Blank has to make that choice.

[SirCzah]

If Quinn can officially get over his love for the Cover 3 and understand that A ) the league has adapted and B ) we don't have the personnel, then I am content with giving him another year.

If we can get back to resembling any kind of complete team, I think his #Brotherhood and fast/physical rah-rah can get us where we need to go.

Wouldn't lose any sleep if we moved on from Quinn though.  Still think we need to move on from Dimi, regardless.

[2_legit_2_legit_2_quit]

Being Atlanta Falcons fans we’ll probably say something like 7-9 let’s bring him back. We crave mediocrity and Quinn gives us that in spades.

[Falcons Fan MVP]

13 hours ago, Flying Falcon said:

LMAO!!!!!!!

I think Dirk Koetter will be better next year if offensive line stays healthy. They could recapture that 2012 magic.

[Falcons Fan MVP]

11 hours ago, MAD597 said:

The only thing I'm confident about with this team is whatever choice they make will be wrong choice and this team will continue to wallow in mediocrity forever.

Al Bundy must be a Falcons fan. Lol

[Falcons Fan MVP]

I would definitely keep Dan Quinn as of now. I think the 49ers and Jaguars games are key because I want to see if we can beat an afc team and an out of division opponent. If we get blown out by Jags and Niners I may change my mind. My number one pet peeve about Quinn is his record against afc teams.

[gazoo]

13 hours ago, vafalconfan said:

The last two games have me feeling like I'm in an alternate universe or something..almost Twilight Zone. How can this team and primarily the defense play like this? We have never seen this defense dominate like they have the past few weeks..even in the superbowl run. Let's just see how they play the bucs in our stadium before making predictions.

I'm in same place bro, WTF season if I ever saw one. If we dominate most of remainder of year, I don't see how we change course. But I would have called you insane if you'd  said that 3 weeks ago,