g-dawg

Tua Tagovailoa - Draft Stock - at what point?

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Last night on one of the sporting programs, someone mentioned his draft stock dropped to about 17th in the first round. So they must think that his skillset is more than just his body...it is his football skills that include his mind that will be on display at the combine should he decide to enter the draft. 

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Had another lightning bolt on Tua.

If he fell into the 20’s, I could see the Saints taking him.    You know the Saints are looking for Brees’ heir apparent.

Boise Falcon Fan likes this

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I might consider him in the 2nd, depending who else falls to either of our picks. Never been someone who thought he was a No.1 overall guy, but I'd love to draft Ryan's heir apparent this draft or next.

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14 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

 

 

On 11/19/2019 at 0:31 PM, tactician said:

Ok I'll bet you $100 dollars he goes in the first round. 

Of course he’ll miss the combine but he’s a player you don’t really need much data on. The eye test is so clear. And with the trend now toward his style with the success of Deshaun and Lamar and others, he’s a guy that has a high value coming out, injury or not. 
 

Right now I’d say yes to your bet but I’ll wait to see how his rehab is going. In football terms, the dude is a fighter with a lot of heart so I won’t be shocked if all goes well. 

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On 11/18/2019 at 11:18 PM, thanat0s said:

I personally don’t believe he’s going to be a cornerstone franchise QB for a team long term.

Having said that, teams get desperate for QBs when they need one, and he’s one of the shiniest hood ornaments out there, surgery or no. He won’t last past the 10th pick, IMO. 

I think you are probably correct here, someone will pull the trigger early. 

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4 hours ago, Skott Lee said:

 

Of course he’ll miss the combine but he’s a player you don’t really need much data on. The eye test is so clear. And with the trend now toward his style with the success of Deshaun and Lamar and others, he’s a guy that has a high value coming out, injury or not. 
 

Right now I’d say yes to your bet but I’ll wait to see how his rehab is going. In football terms, the dude is a fighter with a lot of heart so I won’t be shocked if all goes well. 

I agree he’ll miss the combine. I think he’ll show enough at his pro day to not hurt his draft stock. That being said I think he drops due to his injury timetable, injury history, size, being left handed, etc. If we wind up picking somewhere between 15-20, grab him. At that point we’re drafting for just the pure talent disparity between positions. If we wind up between 5-10, wait until the 2nd round and see if he’s there. The tricky part is 11-14 as I think this will be a sweet spot for other teams to trade with us. We could literally clean up by charging a King’s ransom for Tua. 

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Too risky to risk a high pick on Tua until he can show his hip has healed, and hasn't/won't become necrotic due to blood supply issues.  Maybe take a 3rd/4th round flier  

Edited by brewman

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5 minutes ago, Malachore said:

Couldn't he just go back to Bama if he thinks he's gunna fall like that?

That's what I'd do.

I think if he puts in for the draft he would no longer be eligible to play college ball, but if he doesn't like where he's drafted he could return to college to get his degree and reenter the draft in 2021.

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On 11/18/2019 at 8:26 PM, g-dawg said:

Yeah, I would absolutely make that pick if Tua fell to Rd 4.

My guess would be if he fell to Day 3, there would be a lot of trade up action to get to the first pick of Round 4.

My guess is he goes somewhere in Round 3 to some team - someone will take the chance at that point.

 His draft stock is completely predicated on his amount of recovery, which admittedly is not promising in the short term. He is a huge talent at heaving the ball, but I'm getting more and more concerned with his durability. That said in the 4th; for sure!

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51 minutes ago, brewman said:

I think if he puts in for the draft he would no longer be eligible to play college ball, but if he doesn't like where he's drafted he could return to college to get his degree and reenter the draft in 2021.

Yeah I meant before he even declares. I'm not sure when that has to be put in but he should know by then whether he thinks he will fall or not.

 Not sure it matters though the guy's injury prone in are just be something different next year.

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34 minutes ago, Chaz said:

 His draft stock is completely predicated on his amount of recovery, which admittedly is not promising in the short term. He is a huge talent at heaving the ball, but I'm getting more and more concerned with his durability. That said in the 4th; for sure!

General timetable for recovery is at least six months. He’s an elite athlete so his recovery may be different. I doubt he makes it past the second round though. There were major concerns about Jaylon Smith and he still went in the second. Willis McGahee went in the first. I know it’s not a 1 for 1 comparison but even with the most brutal injuries people are willing to roll the dice. I think he goes anywhere between the mid first and early second round. 

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On 11/19/2019 at 6:33 AM, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

If that's the case though, what would make the Dolphins draft a QB recovering from a major injury and spend money and time rehabbing him for his rookie year when they could just draft draft Burrow or Herbert or draft a healthy QB in 2021 with one of those multiple 1st round picks?

 I'm taking a bigger interest in Herbert. If he dropped to rd 2 heil yeah!

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6 hours ago, Malachore said:

Couldn't he just go back to Bama if he thinks he's gunna fall like that?

That's what I'd do.

Doubtful he’ll go back. Another major injury would definitely affect his draft stock to the point where he may be a third day pick. He won’t risk the money on the table. 

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On 11/18/2019 at 9:16 PM, Geneaut said:

At this point I hope Tua joins NASA and flies to the moon. I’m tired of Tua threads. 

And it’s not even December yet. :)

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On 11/21/2019 at 0:25 PM, g-dawg said:

there is not a lot of data to support anything - not many football players have had this injury - I would tend to assume he will recover fully at some point - but time will tell.

We have heard - "not as bad as Bo Jackson injury" and "medical staff helped immediately after injury in a way that didn't happen w/ Bo".

Also have heard - "not same injury as Bo"

Also have heard Tua injury compared to Dennis Pitta's injury (Ravens TE) - Pitta made an unsuccessful QB.

 

Everything will be sunshine and roses for now on a rehab - we shall see.    Jaylon Smith came back from a nasty injury and came all the way back.

I'm not even talking about "data." Data wouldnt really be helpful in this context. I'm talking about the sorts of stuff you've mentioned here. Weak, tenuous analogy to other players without even a modicum of information relevant to Tua's situation. 

We can certainly speak in generalities and toss ideas around. But its astounding to me how comfortable folks are drawing big conclusions about something they literally know nothing about. None of us has seen anything approaching a thorough explanation of the injury, let alone an x-ray, an MRI, an HPI, etc. 

But the more time I spend on this board (and in the world in general) the more obvious it comes that people by and large just make stuff up.  

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21 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Had another lightning bolt on Tua.

If he fell into the 20’s, I could see the Saints taking him.    You know the Saints are looking for Brees’ heir apparent.

I think they think they already have his heir apparent. 

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6 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

General timetable for recovery is at least six months. He’s an elite athlete so his recovery may be different. I doubt he makes it past the second round though. There were major concerns about Jaylon Smith and he still went in the second. Willis McGahee went in the first. I know it’s not a 1 for 1 comparison but even with the most brutal injuries people are willing to roll the dice. I think he goes anywhere between the mid first and early second round. 

If Tua's injury is limited to bone injury, they'll be even more comfortable taking him than anyone should have been taking McGahee, let alone Jaylon Smith. 

Absent major complicating factors, bone heals well, predictably, and quickly. Jaylon Smith isnt a "miracle" but he's about as close to it as I can think of in professional sports. 

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3 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

If Tua's injury is limited to bone injury, they'll be even more comfortable taking him than anyone should have been taking McGahee, let alone Jaylon Smith. 

Absent major complicating factors, bone heals well, predictably, and quickly. Jaylon Smith isnt a "miracle" but he's about as close to it as I can think of in professional sports. 

Agreed. Everything that I’ve been reading saying that getting the hip relocated is priority number one and there’s a timetable that needs to happen or $hit goes sideways quick.
 

The only different between previous injuries is the positions they play. QBs generate power partially from hip rotation, so the injury may effect certain throwing mechanics or power. Also there’s always a risk of mental blocks, it’s less likely but it does happen. I’m super happy that Smith was able to feel fully. Loved him coming out of college and I was rooting for him to make a full recovery. 

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