g-dawg

Tua Tagovailoa - Draft Stock - at what point?

126 posts in this topic

11 minutes ago, tactician said:

Make it top 15 and ill take your bet. I'll wager Tua will still go in the top 15 picks.

 

Tua after just suffering the injury that he did isn't worth top 15 value because he still has an uphill battle with healing, rehabbing, and getting back into shape before ever playing a down in the NFL barring setbacks. He may also not be the same player athletic wise, so it's a gamble.

 

Teams will see it as a reasonable gamble outside of the 1st round. Probably the 3rd round+ more so than the 1st 2 rounds.

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4 hours ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

If that's the case though, what would make the Dolphins draft a QB recovering from a major injury and spend money and time rehabbing him for his rookie year when they could just draft draft Burrow or Herbert or draft a healthy QB in 2021 with one of those multiple 1st round picks?

Questions and answers:

1. What would make the Dolphins draft a QB recovering from a major injury? Because when healthy he's talented enough to be a starting caliber QB. To get him with a mid round first round pick while addressing other needs like a franchise LT with their first pick would be huge. Not to mention they would get the 5th year option.

2. what would make the Dolphins draft a QB recovering from a major injury when they could just draft Burrow or Herbert? That depends on where they finish the season at. Currently they are behind a few teams, but again if they could address other needs with their first two picks and know they could get him with their third first round pick why not. The salary they would pay for a QB in the top 5 vs. what they would pay for one between pick 17-25 is to their advantage, especially if the QB doesn't turn out good.

3. what would make the Dolphins draft a QB when they could just draft a healthy QB in 2021 with one of those multiple 1st round picks? Unless they flip one of those picks during the draft it's only good for the 2020 draft.

Edited by Cole World

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56 minutes ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

Tua after just suffering the injury that he did isn't worth top 15 value because he still has an uphill battle with healing, rehabbing, and getting back into shape before ever playing a down in the NFL barring setbacks. He may also not be the same player athletic wise, so it's a gamble.

 

Teams will see it as a reasonable gamble outside of the 1st round. Probably the 3rd round+ more so than the 1st 2 rounds.

Ok I'll bet you $100 dollars he goes in the first round. 

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30 minutes ago, TNFalcon1 said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/Article/new-details-emerge-in-recovery-timetable-for-alabama-quarterback-tua-tagovailoa--138843853/Amp/

He's a very shiny hood ornament. He will still be a top ten pick. This is a QB crazy league, look what Chicago gave up to move up 2 spots for trash Trubisky.

 

Trubisky was healthy even though it was an awful one spot trade up and pick for the Bears.

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1 hour ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

Tua after just suffering the injury that he did isn't worth top 15 value because he still has an uphill battle with healing, rehabbing, and getting back into shape before ever playing a down in the NFL barring setbacks. He may also not be the same player athletic wise, so it's a gamble.

 

Teams will see it as a reasonable gamble outside of the 1st round. Probably the 3rd round+ more so than the 1st 2 rounds.

Ultimately where Tua is drafted will come down to the medical reports and what the Team Docs of all the 32 teams think of Tua's current injury, prognosis on full rehab and somewhat lengthy other injury history - will come down to Doctor's and their "probabilities" and teams willingness to risk valuable draft pick and risk tolerance for potential big reward - or snake eyes.

Obviously someone is gonna pull the trigger at some point - there will be many factors w/ the teams as well - GM and HC stability, ownership support, etc, etc. - even though this is a QB and not a RB (like Bo),  the hip and that area is not only important in running but would guess it affects the core on passing as well.   While Tua's arm talent is what makes him special - his wiggle and pocket movement is a significant factor in the overall prospect value.

Even if Team Docs forsee a 100% recovery for Tua to be the exact same player he was a week ago - you still are drafting a QB that shows a high propensity to suffer injury - when you add all those ankle injuries.   Ankles never heal 100% if you have had high ankle sprains - i know this firsthand - you never get total strength back and it is easier to have re-occurrence as the ligaments just aren't as strong.

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31 minutes ago, tactician said:

Ok I'll bet you $100 dollars he goes in the first round. 

 

I don't bet.

 

Teams would be stupid to take him real early. Even if he turns out ok, he's still a huge gamble at this point.

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18 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Ultimately where Tua is drafted will come down to the medical reports and what the Team Docs of all the 32 teams think of Tua's current injury, prognosis on full rehab and somewhat lengthy other injury history - will come down to Doctor's and their "probabilities" and teams willingness to risk valuable draft pick and risk tolerance for potential big reward - or snake eyes.

Obviously someone is gonna pull the trigger at some point - there will be many factors w/ the teams as well - GM and HC stability, ownership support, etc, etc. - even though this is a QB and not a RB (like Bo),  the hip and that area is not only important in running but would guess it affects the core on passing as well.   While Tua's arm talent is what makes him special - his wiggle and pocket movement is a significant factor in the overall prospect value.

 

 

Yep.

 

I read that Tua couldn't move his right side much at all and was in extreme severe pain before the surgery.

 

Teams will want to know how well he moves once he is able be mobile. He has to be able to dropback comfortably and be able to move well.

 

It's so much up in the air about this right now to say things like he's a sure top 5, top 15, or even a 1st rounder at this stage until further is known.

 

Tua is also establishing a rep as injury prone and personally, I don't think he would be a great NFL player.

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1 hour ago, Cole World said:

Questions and answers:

1. What would make the Dolphins draft a QB recovering from a major injury? Because when healthy he's talented enough to be a starting caliber QB. To get him with a mid round first round pick while addressing other needs like a franchise LT with their first pick would be huge. Not to mention they would get the 5th year option.

2. what would make the Dolphins draft a QB recovering from a major injury when they could just draft Burrow or Herbert? That depends on where they finish the season at. Currently they are behind a few teams, but again if they could address other needs with their first two picks and know they could get him with their third first round pick why not. The salary they would pay for a QB in the top 5 vs. what they would pay for one between pick 17-25 is to their advantage, especially if the QB doesn't turn out good.

3. what would make the Dolphins draft a QB when they could just draft a healthy QB in 2021 with one of those multiple 1st round picks? Unless they flip one of those picks during the draft it's only good for the 2020 draft.

 

That the biggest question, will he be healthy?

 

That hip injury could cause him problems mobility and movement wise. That's a huge question mark that no team with a good FO would gamble on that real early.

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15 hours ago, andrews31cain21 said:

I bet he goes back to play his Senior year.. to try and re-establish himself as a first round pick

My guess too.

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12 hours ago, tactician said:

Try top 5. He is a special talent. Watch how Bama looks without Tua. Their offense is going to look like garbage.

Their offense might not look nearly as good THIS year but wait until next year when they bring in Bryce Young who may likely make Joe Burrow look like a Walmart greeter.

As for ATL drafting Tua, that's not likely to happen, even if he falls to the mid-bottom of the third (I still think he goes in the first if he shows full recovery).  Reports state that Tua will be able to start rehab immediately following surgery and are giving him a timeline of around 3 months to start practicing and/or working out so his timetable looks like March which will give him a month or so before the draft to determine his draft stock then. 

Edited by falconfansince66

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11 minutes ago, falconfansince66 said:

Their offense might not look nearly as good THIS year but wait until next year when they bring in Bryce Young who may likely make Joe Burrow look like a Walmart greeter.

As for ATL drafting Tua, that's not likely to happen, even if he falls to the mid-bottom of the third (I still think he goes in the first if he shows full recovery).  Reports state that Tua will be able to start rehab immediately following surgery and are giving him a timeline of around 3 months to start practicing and/or working out so his timetable looks like March which will give him a month or so before the draft to determine his draft stock then. 

 

 

Even then, he may not be able to push it much to be that much ready before the draft. He may not even play next season.

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4 minutes ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

 

Even then, he may not be able to push it much to be that much ready before the draft. He may not even play next season.

Don't tell him that!  Dude works his butt off when his back is against the wall and he's going to want to show that he's "ready" regardless. His work ethic is very high and his off the field qualities will make him a highly desirable pick.

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12 minutes ago, falconfansince66 said:

Don't tell him that!  Dude works his butt off when his back is against the wall and he's going to want to show that he's "ready" regardless. His work ethic is very high and his off the field qualities will make him a highly desirable pick.

 

The man sustained a very bad injury. Every player wants to work hard and come back as soon as possible from an injury.

 

A hip is nothing to play around with and he has to play it smart for the betterment of his career and quality of life long term and not try to rush back on a football field too soon.

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54 minutes ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

 

Even then, he may not be able to push it much to be that much ready before the draft. He may not even play next season.

The most recent reports suggest his recovery time is expected to be 3 months. 

All things being equal you'd much rather deal with dislocations/fractures than ligament/tendon injuries. 

Barring setbacks, I think its far more likely that Tua goes in the Top 10 than outside the Top 10. Although I wasnt totally sold on his prospects anyway. 

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I don’t think people realize the severity of his injury. It’s very real that he may never play again, and if he does will he even be near what he was?

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11 hours ago, Ovie_Lover said:

No please no. No no no. I NEED this to be the last year I ever watch him. Please no. 

I know, man. I mean, all he does is win. :ninja:
 

Better suck it up. My best guess is You’ve got another year with Fromm coming back for his senior season. 

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I like Tua, but the injury is a non starter for me. I need to see what he looks like a year down the road. Falcons can't take a maybe at QB. 

Sure I don't want him to lose his career. Picking him in 2020 is a very high risk move. Of course, the higher the risk the higher the reward. I can't do it in the first 3 rounds. Maybe 4, who know if he last that long. Maybe some team with nothing to loose takes him. Big Ben I hear wants to play out his contract, but he is constantly hurt. Andy Dalton is a free agent after 2020. I think there are some teams that Tua isn't a big risk for in round 3. 

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On 11/19/2019 at 3:22 PM, Skott Lee said:

I don’t think people realize the severity of his injury. It’s very real that he may never play again, and if he does will he even be near what he was?

There's really nothing at all to support this assertion. 

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1 minute ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

There's really nothing at all to support this assertion. 

there is not a lot of data to support anything - not many football players have had this injury - I would tend to assume he will recover fully at some point - but time will tell.

We have heard - "not as bad as Bo Jackson injury" and "medical staff helped immediately after injury in a way that didn't happen w/ Bo".

Also have heard - "not same injury as Bo"

Also have heard Tua injury compared to Dennis Pitta's injury (Ravens TE) - Pitta made an unsuccessful QB.

 

Everything will be sunshine and roses for now on a rehab - we shall see.    Jaylon Smith came back from a nasty injury and came all the way back.

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1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

there is not a lot of data to support anything - not many football players have had this injury - I would tend to assume he will recover fully at some point - but time will tell.

We have heard - "not as bad as Bo Jackson injury" and "medical staff helped immediately after injury in a way that didn't happen w/ Bo".

Also have heard - "not same injury as Bo"

Also have heard Tua injury compared to Dennis Pitta's injury (Ravens TE) - Pitta made an unsuccessful QB.

 

Everything will be sunshine and roses for now on a rehab - we shall see.    Jaylon Smith came back from a nasty injury and came all the way back.

Not discounting the severity of the injury but technology has come a long way since Bo's time. Most notably with MRI. Bo had an undetected hairline fracture and that led to the other issues. I doubt Tua will face anything like that, but you never know. The one issue that's different between these cases is the fact that Tua's position requires more use of the the hips than other positions. This could potentially be more problematic for him in the long run.

That being said, If Tua is there in the mid first round to early second round, grab him.

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