Was it talent or coaching?

[PokerSteve]

55 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Hate to say it but this isn't all true Steve. We had 3 man rushes yesterday. Grady had a sack on a 3 man rush; coverage sack.

Ulbrich was being groomed to take over playcalling duties for a few weeks now. This wasn't just changing who called the D.

The problem was the secondary and the new 3-4/5-2 front that forced Vic/Takk to stand up too much along with the TERRIBLE secondary player; especially once Neal went down.

Quinn's system isn't the issue. It's the smaller decisions and overthinking; like scheme adjustment but it hurting Vic/Takk trying to rush upright and also valuing Morris with WRs>DBs when considering Sanu/Julio in that WR room vs Tru/Allen with all the young cats in the DB room...while we were getting destroyed due to coverage problems...

That shouldn't have required half the season, a 6 game losing streak, and the Bye week to change but maybe it did when you're in the battle week to week thinking it should be working.

Overthinking is what DQ did this offseason. Ulbrich is now ready to call the D and Morris is there preventing the DBs from being an outright liability. Amazingly, Vic/Takk and 4 man front doing it's job now?

True, we did have a sack on a 3-man rush, but I'm thinking that soft zone was way tighter than usual. Also agree it was not just Ulbrich, Morris had things in way better order in the secondary. But the overall dynamic of this defense yesterday made it look like it was 180 degrees different from what we'd been running. Looking forward to see if this is just a one-game anomaly or the beginning of a stiffer, less-predictable defense with Ulbrich and Morris running things.

 

[Ergo Proxy]

11 minutes ago, PokerSteve said:

True, we did have a sack on a 3-man rush, but I'm thinking that soft zone was way tighter than usual. Also agree it was not just Ulbrich, Morris had things in way better order in the secondary. But the overall dynamic of this defense yesterday made it look like it was 180 degrees different from what we'd been running. Looking forward to see if this is just a one-game anomaly or the beginning of a stiffer, less-predictable defense with Ulbrich and Morris running things.

 

Oh, we definitely played more press and man. Coverage performance changes the most as a unit, but the front 7 also went back to more 4-3. Vic and Takk both with hands in the dirt part of a 4 man DL instead of trying to rush them both upright...or drop 1 or the other...relying on 3 DTs and either Vic or Takk wasn't getting home. Coverage is the biggest change though, IMO.

[Ergo Proxy]

Goober's thread:

Yep, DQ said he realized he was trying to do too much.

[Dr Long Shot]

1 hour ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

We had 9 rushing attempts in the first half against the Titans.

9 rushing attempts in the first half against the Colts.

8 rushing attempts in the first half against the Rams.

11 first half attempts against the Cardinals.

 

We had 7 called run plays yesterday ON THE FIRST DRIVE! And 17 total in the first half.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers but looking over the play by play I count 13 out of 30 total plays called in the first half against the Cardinals runs. Here is the breakdown

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=401128126

• First drive of the game we run the ball 6 times, score a TD. (Rush to pass ratio is - 6/6)
• Second drive of the game, score is 7-3 Falcons:
  • We open with a Run, get a first down on an illegal hands to the face on Arizona defense.
  • Next play, 10 yards on holding.
  • Play after that delay of game. Puts us down to 1st - 25.
  • Short pass,
  • short pass,
  • call a pass on 3rd-16 that results in another penalty. End of drive
  •  pass to rush ratio this drive is (1/4), but tough to run the ball when you are in a 25 yards to go for a first down situation.
• Third drive of the game. Score is 10-7 Cardianls: 
  • Incomplete,
  • 3 yard run,
  • Sack.
  • Rush to pass is (1/2)
• Fourth drive of game, score is 17-7 Cardinals 11 play drive: 
  • First play is -2 yards from Freeman, puts us back to 2nd -12.
  • PENALTY - Puts us down to 2- 17.
  • Naturaly next two plays are passing plays resulting in a first down.
  • Following play is a 21 yard pass for a first down.
  • Freeman rush for a 3 yard gain.  
  • Next play Matt Ryan scrambles,
  • K. Smith runs for a first.
  • Following play Freeman runs for 3 yards.
  • Following play Ito Smith runs for no.gain.
  • Incomplete pass results in FG. Our pass to rush ratio is (5/5)

And that's the entire first half. We had a grand total of four offensive possessions and we had a rush to pass ratio of 13 to 17 which is pretty balanced considering we had two different 2nd and 20 to go situations we had to overcome. Next time we get the ball back is with roughly 11 minutes left in the third quarter down 27-10

• Fifth drive of the game
  • 20 yard pass to Julio
  • 2 yard run by freeman
  • 9 yard run by freeman (first down)
  • 15 yard pass to hooper
  • Freeman 2 yard gain
  • Matt Ryan scrambles for 1 yard
  • Incomplete 
  • Run pass ratio is (3/4) Total up to this point is 16-21

It isn't until our sixth drive needing two TDs to tie, at our own 7-yard line with under 5 mins left in the third quarter that we "abandon" the run. But tough to question that decision when the result is we go on to score 20 points in under a quarter (should have been 21 points) to tie (almost) the game. Out of the remaining three drives we go on to score TDs in two of the three and the last drive is us having to score a td from 75 yards out with under 5 mins left in the game so we go no-huddle and call no runs that drive, which again is understandable.

Now I won't break down each game, but I reiterate, out of all the games the only one I feel we should have probably run the ball a lot more is the Titans game, though I suspect if we look at the play by play a lot of our passing calls came as a direct result of holding penalties putting us way behind the sticks on virtually every single drive. As for the Rams game, I will admit it is the only game this year I really didn't watch so I won't comment on it specifically.

Every other game though, we were down big time with our defense showing a complete incapacity to not only stop the other team from scoring but from doing so in methodical 5-8 min clock eating drive. That's a lot of pressure to score and score quickly that leads us to be compelled to become one-dimensional as early as the third quarter in most games. 

I'm no Koetter fanboy but our lack of balance is almost certainly not completely on him. We have been in some abysmal game scripts thanks to an unspeakable defense coupled with an abundance of untimely penalties on offense. I really doubt even if Shanahan were still here that we would be seeing the same "healthy" ratio he has been able to comfortably implement in San Fran with his historically awesome defense. 

Edited November 11, 2019 by Dr Long Shot

[PeytonMannings Forehead]

1 minute ago, Dr Long Shot said:

Not sure where you are getting your numbers but looking over the play by play I count 13 out of 30 total plays called in the first half against the Cardinals runs. Here is the breakdown

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=401128126

• First drive of the game we run the ball 6 times, score a TD. (Rush to pass ratio is - 6/6)
• Second drive of the game, score is 7-3 Falcons:
  • We open with a Run, get a first down on an illegal hands to the face on Arizona defense.
  • Next play, 10 yards on holding.
  • Play after that delay of game. Puts us down to 1st - 25.
  • Short pass,
  • short pass,
  • call a pass on 3rd-16 that results in another penalty. End of drive
  •  pass to rush ratio this drive is (1/4), but tough to run the ball when you are in a 25 yards to go for a first down situation.
• Third drive of the game. Score is 10-7 Cardianls: 
  • Incomplete,
  • 3 yard run,
  • Sack.
  • Rush to pass is (1/2)
• Fourth drive of game, score is 17-7 Cardinals 11 play drive: 
  • First play is -2 yards from Freeman, puts us back to 2nd -12.
  • PENALTY - Puts us down to 2- 17.
  • Naturaly next two plays are passing plays resulting in a first down.
  • Following play is a 21 yard pass for a first down.
  • Freeman rush for a 3 yard gain.  
  • Next play Matt Ryan scrambles,
  • K. Smith runs for a first.
  • Following play Freeman runs for 3 yards.
  • Following play Ito Smith runs for no.gain.
  • Incomplete pass results in FG. Our pass to rush ratio is (5/5)

And that's the entire first half. We had a grand total of four offensive possessions and we had a rush to pass ratio of 13 to 17 which is pretty balanced considering we had two different 2nd and 20 to go situations we had to overcome. Next time we get the ball back is with roughly 11 minutes left in the third quarter down 27-1

Pro football reference drive chart. Cardinals game 11 first half called runs out of 30 total plays. I don’t count the Matt Ryan scrambles because they were called passes.

[Dr Long Shot]

5 minutes ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

Pro football reference drive chart. Cardinals game 11 first half called runs out of 30 total plays. I don’t count the Matt Ryan scrambles because they were called passes.

I'm not counting them either. 

EDIT. I am counting plays that were called back because of penalty though, both run and pass, but I think that accounts for only one more run. Still, if you check each play in the first half 13 out of 30 is the actual count (without scrambles)  

Edited November 11, 2019 by Dr Long Shot

[PeytonMannings Forehead]

Just now, Dr Long Shot said:

I'm not counting them either.

I’m quite sure where you’re getting 13 from but that’s just one game. The trend is clear. We’re not balanced enough. The Colts aren’t a lights out defense and we barely attempted to run the ball against them.

Now if we were lighting the scoreboard up I’d be inclined to agree with you. Play to our strengths. Bombs away. Yet we got Julio, Calvin, Hooper, had a Sanu and in multiple games we struggled to score at all in the first half. 7 against the Titans. 3 against the Colts. 

The same script repeated for weeks. Come out first drive and look good, actually look somewhat balanced then nada for the rest of the half. Felt like Dirk was literally throwing anything against the wall to see what stuck and we had no identity. We’ve been within striking distance in every one of our games except for three going into the third quarter yet we have a 29% rushing percentage. That doesn’t compute to scoreboard forcing you away from your run.

Even down three scores you don’t have to go away from your run game. Being down two TDs with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter doesn’t mean you have to abandon the run. It just doesn’t. You’re letting teams dictate to you when you do that. When you run the ball you can make the game ugly, slow it down. Shorten the game. Limit the number of plays your defense has to play. Now even if your defense sucks, that high powered offense on the other sideline has to spend all that time sitting on the bench getting stiff, feeling like they’re losing momentum. 
 

The formula we saw yesterday is what we should have been seeing all along. 7 called run play on the first drive alone? Yes. More please,

[Dr Long Shot]

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

Just now, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

I’m quite sure where you’re getting 13 from but that’s just one game. The trend is clear. We’re not balanced enough. The Colts aren’t a lights out defense and we barely attempted to run the ball against them.

Now if we were lighting the scoreboard up I’d be inclined to agree with you. Play to our strengths. Bombs away. Yet we got Julio, Calvin, Hooper, had a Sanu and in multiple games we struggled to score at all in the first half. 7 against the Titans. 3 against the Colts. 

The same script repeated for weeks. Come out first drive and look good, actually look somewhat balanced then nada for the rest of the half. Felt like Dirk was literally throwing anything against the wall to see what stuck and we had no identity. We’ve been within striking distance in every one of our games except for three going into the third quarter yet we have a 29% rushing percentage. That doesn’t compute to scoreboard forcing you away from your run.

Even down three scores you don’t have to go away from your run game. Being down two TDs with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter doesn’t mean you have to abandon the run. It just doesn’t. You’re letting teams dictate to you when you do that. When you run the ball you can make the game ugly, slow it down. Shorten the game. Limit the number of plays your defense has to play. Now even if your defense sucks, that high powered offense on the other sideline has to spend all that time sitting on the bench getting stiff, feeling like they’re losing momentum. 
 

The formula we saw yesterday is what we should have been seeing all along. 7 called run play on the first drive alone? Yes. More please,

It doesn't, but keep in mind we average around two possessions a quarter, and the defense keeps allowing points. It's not just playing against a 17 point deficit, it's playing against a 17 point deficit, plus whatever points on top of that the defense will give up, plus the fact we only have around 3 possessions left to make up the difference. 

[MasterBateser]

2 hours ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

I get what you’re hitting at but being down a couple scores doesn’t take you out of your running game. We had the Dolphins down by 17 at the half a few years ago and they pounded their way right back into it. 16 of their 31 total rushing attempts came in the second half.

Problem with Dirk is until the past few weeks he hadn’t even attempted to establish the ground game. We’d come out relatively balanced for a drive or two, then as soon as the first fifteen ran out, it was bombs away.

 

1 hour ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

@Ovie_Lover

You're ignoring their defense caused 2 three and outs and shut us out the entire second half. But go on and talk about how we should run and ignore this defense gives up points almost every drive. 

[GrimeyKidd]

So Quinn still has importance 

 

[*TMo*]

Quote

Was it talent or coaching?

 

I wish I knew.

[PeytonMannings Forehead]

1 hour ago, Dr Long Shot said:

It doesn't, but keep in mind we average around two possessions a quarter, and the defense keeps allowing points. It's not just playing against a 17 point deficit, it's playing against a 17 point deficit, plus whatever points on top of that the defense will give up, plus the fact we only have around 3 possessions left to make up the difference. 

Bro, believe me, I'm not forgetting to factor in how putrid our defense has been.  That's why I'm saying establishing a ground game and controlling the tempo is all the more important.  

Like I said, if we had actually had an offensive identity and we were scoring at will, then I'd be like, let Dirk do his thing, don't break his rhythm.  But that hasn't been the case at all.  We've at times looks as lost on offense as we have on defense, so at least attempting to play complimentary ball only makes sense.  

And there are tangible ancillary effects that permeate throughout the entire team when you can pound it.

[Vandy]

8 hours ago, Ergo Proxy said:

I think to answer the OP it's been both, but mostly coaching.

And, most people did buy in to Quinn becoming DC. It's a shame it took 8 games to figure out we needed a shakeup. Ulbrich comes in, who knows "who" decided it would be a good idea to put Morris over to help the DBs, but low and behold the pass rush starts getting home. 5 of 6 sacks were coverage sacks.

However, I think Sheffield is quietly making Tru very expendable. That's looking like a steal.

Ultimately, DQ may lose his job as he isn't on top of the right moves with coaches under himself and is overthinking matters. It will take a big run to end this year to save his job.

IDK about TD anymore. I just want consistency. If these coaches truly turn it around, and the players were mostly just fine? How can TD go? etc

I DO NOT want to change OCs again, but DK has to fine a way to blend more of the essential fundamentals of WCO into the pass game. Do we run as many times as we did if the Defense isn't shutting down the Saints? That was some old school Falcons drives yesterday. Shorten the game by limiting drives and turned the Saints offense into Falcons 2017 offense settling for FGs. THAT is what DQ seemed to go for bringing in Mularkey and trying to emphasize run Defense but vastly underestimated what the new front would be like with our ends, CBs, and LBs...Foye had the most snaps all year; tying his 43% D snaps from week 1.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/O/OluoFo00/gamelog/2019/

I can understand Neal/Allen being the S tandem again, but once Neal went down...did it really take this long to figure out Ish was a straight up liability and Allen/Kazee would be a better tandem? I mean, we tried to get Cyprien at least but once he hit IR why go back to Ish if you wanted someone else anyway? Where was Neasman being put back to SS? He closed the year there adequately after Richards didn't stick.

If we get Oliver and Sheffield balling, this could indeed be a quick turnaround in building the Defense up. Will take some savvy vets like AC and Tyeler sticking around another year while we bring along Cominsky/Takk and a couple draft picks. Fix the front 7 and figure out the S tandem moving forward (I think we can't get out of Neal's option but need a backup either way)...

I usually don’t quote your ‘War & Peace’ novels, but this one was so good I made an exception. Excellent analysis. 

[Ergo Proxy]

4 hours ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

Bro, believe me, I'm not forgetting to factor in how putrid our defense has been.  That's why I'm saying establishing a ground game and controlling the tempo is all the more important.  

Like I said, if we had actually had an offensive identity and we were scoring at will, then I'd be like, let Dirk do his thing, don't break his rhythm.  But that hasn't been the case at all.  We've at times looks as lost on offense as we have on defense, so at least attempting to play complimentary ball only makes sense.  

And there are tangible ancillary effects that permeate throughout the entire team when you can pound it.

This is where I'm at.

To me, separation and distinction must be made between the run game once already behind 3 or 4 scores vs trying (succeeding or failing) to start the game. They are separate issues.

Our core problems on offense has been identity and consistency; penalties included, to start games. Some of that HAS to be rooted in this mesh of our previous WCO from 15-18 to what Koetter is used to doing with this passing game (Air Coryell) and Mularkey facilitating the change in run blocking scheme/subsequent OL changes (at OG in particular).

DQ admitted to trying to do too much becoming DC and it blinded us to problems a HC should be on top of with seeing the DBs screaming for help sooner, etc.

Maybe the Bye week let the run game emphasis finally get ironed out...it's TBD on whether or not the pass game will come together. That quick game was a decent patch job vs the Seahawks but what kept us deadly; even with Sark, was that playaction and wide zone forcing front 7s(8 mans at times) having to maintain their run fits going horizontally. It was the PERFECT system going for Matt.

What we needed was to fix the OL and run game. We all agreed with this. Why did we abandon WCO and the wide zone? We could've just signed Brown and still made the other OL moves. Carpenter is not a fit in wide zone. Not good enough laterally. Kyle kept the details thoroughly coached with McDaniel. Everything looked the same. Early play calls set up later shot plays. We just seem to be a jack of all trades without the run game being effective early. It was vs the Saints and likely helped the pass rush later; especially for guys like McGary.

If Dirk stays or the coaching staff overall stays...PRESUMING we win out and keep DQ. It better get a lot cleaner next year or we're gonna be talking finding Matt another OC yet again in 2021. There is enough coaching experience but bringing all the things they 'can' do together is the difference between making us less predictable vs make us less threatening/lethal.

We had this problem in the past. Decent first drive or two...lull until a 3rd Q up tempo or no huddle put the game in Ryan's hands.