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Stretch Run for UGA - whaddya think?

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Ok, we are 2/3rds of the way through the season and UGA just played their best game against their biggest rival and arguably the best team they have faced this year.   I believe Gators likely better than Notre Dame - although it’s close.

We all know UGA controls it’s own destiny for the biggest prize - the Playoff and even has a small margin for error (could lose one more SEC game to either AU or ATM) and still make it to SECCG.

Remaining Schedule: 
Missouri

at Auburn

Texas A&M

Ga Tech

 

I gotta say, while Dawgs will likely be favored in every game, it’s a very challenging stretch run.   Let’s take them in chronological order:

vs Mizzou:   This team has been up and down all year but actually controls it’s on destiny in the SEC East - same as UGA.   You better believe they will likely be up for this game and give great effort as Barry Odum and Mizzou coaches will have them up for this game and reminding them they control their own destiny in the SEC East - stranger things have happened.   Obviously this is a mismatch on paper but so was SCAR.   Georgia just has to show up and play a clean game and not take Mizzou lightly.   Will they?   Obviously this is a trap game sandwiched between the great Florida win and the tough task of Auburn in two weeks.   UGA Chance to Win:  80%

at Auburn - this will be a very tough game for the Dawgs.   Auburn fans will be jacked for the game and the combination of crowd noise and great Auburn defense could spell trouble for Dawgs.    Flipping to the other side of the ball, it will be all about Bo Nix - who is capable of playing great or poor.   Very good young QB who will get better over next 2-3 years.   What scares me the most is his ability to scramble and make plays out of the pocket running or passing.   Auburn cannot run the ball down our throat but could make 3-4 big chunk plays in the game to turn the momentum.   UGA defense just needs to limit the chunk plays.  UGA Chance to Win:  53%

Texas A&M - this team has talent, it’s just very young talent.   They have a QB (Kelly Mond) that has a very high upside and when he is feeling it, he can get hot.  They also have an absolute stud Freshman QB in Spiller.   ATM can score - So a young team with a QB capable of playing well, a team with talent and Jimbo Fisher. UGA Chance to Win:  67%

If you added up those three percentages, they would add up to 2.0 out of 3.0.   I didn't mean set those percentages to make it an even 2 points but that is how it came out.

 

While game by game the oddsmakers probably favor us in each game - to me it seems slightly likely that we would go 2/3 as opposed to a clean sweep - based on the totality of the season so far.   I believe we will need to play better for the rest of season than we played against Florida to win all three.

Q: Can we win all three games?

A: Sure we can

 

Q:  Will we win all three and head into SECCG with a real chance of making the Playoff?

 

WHAT SAY YOU?

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here is ESPN's projected winning percentages by game:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/61/georgia-bulldogs

Sat, Nov 9 87.1% 9.8 (26) --
Sat, Nov 16 45.3% 21.4 (9) --
Sat, Nov 23 82.5% 14.2 (16) --
Sat, Nov 30 97.2% -8.5 (102)

 

so ESPN is  more bullish than me on the two home games Mizzou/ATM and saying we are underdog on road at Auburn - either way, the statistical projection still the same - expecting UGA to not run the table but to win 2-of-3.

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To run the table on our schedule and get to and win the SECCG - the Dawgs have to be better than they were on Saturday - as good of a win as it is, it's still not good enough.    Somebody needs to join Lawrence Cager as a more substantial receiving threat - if no one does, good defenses like Auburn and potentially Bama/LSU will simply gameplan to take Cager away and we become one dimensional.   I am looking at you Robertson, Pickens and Blalock - I know it is tough to ask those two freshman to step up but at least one needs to.

James Coley has to call the rest of the season more like he did the Florida game - we still want to be a run heavy team but the pass has to be mixed in much more than it has so far outside of Florda game.   We need to get the Tight Ends a little more involved - we did against Florida - need to build on this.

Dawgs need to ride or die w/ Jake Fromm - Fromm should be given more opportunity to audible and more opportunity to cut it loose.    Offensive Line needs to play like they did against Florida - the dirty little secret is the Georgia Offfensive Line has been mostly bad this year in pass protection - until the Florida game where they absolutely dominated - makes you wonder as the Florida front 7 was the best the Dawgs have faced - why did it take until that game for the OL to show up and show out in pass protection?  I know there have been injuries.

CONSISTENCY - this is the key for the Dawgs -  the  Florida game effort and execution needs to travel from game to game.   As good as Dawgs played at Florida, we still kicked three field goals and would have been four had we not had the fortune on the Cager replay call.

 

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I actually think pass pro has mostly been good outside of South Carolina and occasional whiffs in other games. I think it's the run blocking, especially inside that has been lacking at times.

You have some good points but I'll add a few...

Whoever plays the slot corner needs to be better. Mark Webb was playing it and really started getting exploited badly late against Florida...that will be a problem going forward if it's not addressed by either him improving, or us going with Divaad Wilson more (who has had his moments this season).

Interior run blocking needs to get more consistent and pass pro needs to keep it up.

They need to "Let Fromm be Fromm" instead of drilling it into him to be careful with the ball (which its starting to feel like they did both this and last year). Maybe that is continuing to try to instill a chip, but that means continuing to see him "ball" which he's always shown flashes off (after the games where he barely pulls the trigger unless it's very open).

More wideouts need to step up.

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Gonna be able to nitpick every series of every game and say we should have done this or could have done that. We controlled the game against Florida. We played off of them on that last drive they had to let them dink and dunk and stay inbounds. As they used to say in the old days, there's more than one way to skin a cat. Win by 1, win by 7, win by 27. We left a lot of points on the field and I'm sure some Gator fans feel the same way. End of the day we won and our lead was never threatened. Pitts went from balling in the 1st half to absolute zero in the 2nd half. Our defense is a legitimately great, championship caliber defense this year.

I think this team's best football is still ahead of them this season. Barring injuries derailing things, I'm very confident we will take care of business the rest of the way. I don't really get into ESPN's power index stuff so I don't have any comment about that or percentages.

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Missouri on the road has been a total train wreck this season. Losses to Wyoming, Vandy, and Kentucky. That one should be a win. Auburn is tough because it's on the road, but who knows what Auburn team you get. If Auburn makes FG's or even finishes with TD's against Ole Miss, that game isn't close. I would probably lean Georgia in that game, but I think it will be tight. A&M is likely a win because it's at home, but who knows.

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General thoughts. This should be a good stretch run towards Atlanta to get better. Feel decent about the remaining schedule.

- Keep Fromm and the OL relatively healthy.

- Keep Cager healthy at all costs. Load management him from time to time. 

- Another WR needs to show. They keep Robertson in the big play role, not many looks in this offense. Pickens or Blaylock have to step up now. The latter seems to be figuring it out more and more. 

- Coley just needs to keep evolving into his role. I don't feel confident in those Dec/Jan. games. Can worry about that later.

- Add another pass rusher opposite Azeez. Nolan seems to be getting it little by little.  

- Get Campbell healthy enough to play which in turn limits snaps for Webb you'd surmise. 

 

Can't complain about the defense. They are operating near peak efficiency. 

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I think GA will run the table given what we know about GA and the other teams. However, it is college football where anything can happen!

Missouri is a win, like @tl;dr said they are horrible on the road and GA fans are really loud at home.

Auburn is another animal, no pun intended, if they got their voodoo magic working it could be scary at their house. Be sure and take some chicken bones and bat wings to cleanse the field! I think GA will win

Texas A&M could be a problem becuase Mond is a bipolar QB. Sometimes he looks like he can't be stopped, other times he looks like a high school QB. Which Mond will show up?

GT, what, really? I don't care if this is Good Ole Fashion Hate. GA wins

I really hope GA wins and we win out so we can meet up in SECCG!

Carter, 95Dawg, sdogg and 1 other like this

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3 hours ago, BamaBirdLady said:

I think GA will run the table given what we know about GA and the other teams. However, it is college football where anything can happen!

Missouri is a win, like @tl;dr said they are horrible on the road and GA fans are really loud at home.

Auburn is another animal, no pun intended, if they got their voodoo magic working it could be scary at their house. Be sure and take some chicken bones and bat wings to cleanse the field! I think GA will win

Texas A&M could be a problem becuase Mond is a bipolar QB. Sometimes he looks like he can't be stopped, other times he looks like a high school QB. Which Mond will show up?

GT, what, really? I don't care if this is Good Ole Fashion Hate. GA wins

I really hope GA wins and we win out so we can meet up in SECCG!

Yeah if Dawgs lose at home to Mizzou - then season was a colossal FAIL - and after the home loss to SCAR, I'm fairly certain KIRBY will have the players' attention all week and through the game - this is where player leaders like FROMM and REED come in as well.    It won't happen and I expect the Dawgs offense to start hitting their stride - look for best offensive output against a Power 5 team Saturday night.

Super hard to get a read on what will happen in Auburn - Georgia has the better roster but sometimes Auburn just can be a nasty/scary team at home - sometimes.   I wouldn't be surprised if they just played their best game of the season against the Dawgs - if so, then it will take our best game of the year to win.   Obviously the play of Bo Nix is the wildcard here - hopefully Kirby and Lanning have a good plan for him - believe our best bet is to mush rush him and keep him in the pocket similar to the Notre Dame gameplan.  Nix is at his best creating outside the pocket and freelancing. On offense, we need a similar plan as the Florida game - establish the run/stay balanced but put the game in Jake Fromm's hands.    Georgia is just a better team and offense when the gameplan doesn't shackle Fromm.    We would have a Natty had the offensive gameplan not been taken out of Fromm's hands in the 2nd half of Championship game in 2017.

I like the way you described the Texas A&M game and their QB Kellen Mond - you never know what you will get w/ him  but if Mond is on his game he can be a serious headache for the defense - very dangerous game.   If Dawgs beat Mizzou and Auburn, this game becomes even more dangerous because we will have clinched the SEC East but ATM could knock us out of the race for a playoff spot.

If UGA does run the table, that will mean this team has improved dramatically from the bye week to the SECCG - if that happens, Georgia will be a serious threat to LSU or Bama - whoever comes out of the West.

 

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One more wrinkle to throw into this equation is that Mizzou and Auburn will both be coming off of bye weeks when playing us. Not an insurmountable advantage but we'll be getting their best shots with two weeks to plan for us.

 

Our offense needs to continue to improve and they can't settle for 3 they need to be focused on getting 6 every chance we get.

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