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BamaBirdLady

Vegas has Bama over LSU, Some new LSU news

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Vegas has Bama at -7 without Tua playing. If Tua plays the line could move as high as -10.

Vegas saying Tua is worth 3-4 points.

Remember it was Vegas that had GA at -6 1/2 over FL when everyone was picking FL.

ROLL TIDE 

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1 hour ago, BamaBirdLady said:

Vegas has Bama at -7 without Tua playing. If Tua plays the line could move as high as -10.

Vegas saying Tua is worth 3-4 points.

Remember it was Vegas that had GA at -6 1/2 over FL when everyone was picking FL.

ROLL TIDE 

Yeah LSU hasn’t really faced a good offense yet and we know LSU defense not as good as most years - that plus it’s a Bama home game would be the theory for making Bama be that big a favorite.

My guess is the line will move down and back up similar to UGA/UF.

 

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As much respect for Orgeron's Tigers and how they are playing. It is Saban's Tide at home. Bama loses at home how often? Bama's defense shuts down LSU

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57 minutes ago, putnam6 said:

As much respect for Orgeron's Tigers and how they are playing. It is Saban's Tide at home. Bama loses at home how often? Bama's defense shuts down LSU

Yeah but this version of Bama’s defense isn’t as impressive as most years, either.   Starting a couple of Freshmen at LB.  

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The big key for games is where does the pro money lands and that happens day of the game or the night before.  The public money non pros usually are the week leading up to Friday.  Example the public put a lot of money on Florida so the line went down to 3.5 and then the big money pros put down money on uga and it went.back up to 6.5 where it first started right before game time.  Vegas knows where to put the line to get the most action.   Should be a fun game to watch.  

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36 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Yeah but this version of Bama’s defense isn’t as impressive as most years, either.   Starting a couple of Freshmen at LB.  

Yea I hear ya but both are 4 star freshmen and they are in week 8, Bama has talented depth. If it was in Baton Rouge Id think differently, and of course I always pull for the underdog, outside of UGA

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4 hours ago, SacFalcFan said:

The big key for games is where does the pro money lands and that happens day of the game or the night before.  The public money non pros usually are the week leading up to Friday.  Example the public put a lot of money on Florida so the line went down to 3.5 and then the big money pros put down money on uga and it went.back up to 6.5 where it first started right before game time.  Vegas knows where to put the line to get the most action.   Should be a fun game to watch.  

Yeah, the line with move for sure. I like where it is now, especially since everyone is loving LSU. The same ones loving on FL.

Interesting that Tua gives us 3-4 points. I sure hope he starts!

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Bama could sit Tua and make sure he’s healthy, let the game play out how it will and probably  be fine until the Iron Bowl. If Bama loses to LSU with Tua out (which I think is likely) and then Tua comes back healthy to beat Auburn, barring a bad loss to LSU I think Bama probably makes it into the playoff still. The committee will give Bama the benefit of the doubt if they’re looking at one loss non champ scenarios.

It’s probably an easier path to the playoffs than going through UGA in Atlanta actually. That’s going to be a physical game against a hungry *** team. Obviously Bama or LSU will be up for that challenge, I’m just speaking on getting to the dance healthy. 

I think this holds true for LSU also. In either case I think there is a chance both Bama and LSU could make the playoff. And I think the loser of a close game could be set up to make it in if the winner eventually loses to UGA in Atlanta.

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7 hours ago, Carter said:

Bama could sit Tua and make sure he’s healthy, let the game play out how it will and probably  be fine until the Iron Bowl. If Bama loses to LSU with Tua out (which I think is likely) and then Tua comes back healthy to beat Auburn, barring a bad loss to LSU I think Bama probably makes it into the playoff still. The committee will give Bama the benefit of the doubt if they’re looking at one loss non champ scenarios.

It’s probably an easier path to the playoffs than going through UGA in Atlanta actually. That’s going to be a physical game against a hungry *** team. Obviously Bama or LSU will be up for that challenge, I’m just speaking on getting to the dance healthy. 

I think this holds true for LSU also. In either case I think there is a chance both Bama and LSU could make the playoff. And I think the loser of a close game could be set up to make it in if the winner eventually loses to UGA in Atlanta.

I like your thinking, but not sure Bama gets in with a loss to LSU.

Remember it was the rematch of LSU vs Bama in the 2012 Sugar Bowl during BCS era that really gave the playoff system legs. Bama had lost the regular season game to LSU and then won Sugar Bowl for NC. I don’t think if Bama looses regular season game again, they will give them another chance.

However, if LSU were to lose on Saturday I think they might have a shot.

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9 minutes ago, BamaBirdLady said:

I like your thinking, but not sure Bama gets in with a loss to LSU.

Remember it was the rematch of LSU vs Bama in the 2012 Sugar Bowl during BCS era that really gave the playoff system legs. Bama had lost the regular season game to LSU and then won Sugar Bowl for NC. I don’t think if Bama looses regular season game again, they will give them another chance.

However, if LSU were to lose on Saturday I think they might have a shot.

Well you have to figure if it’s a close loss this weekend then neither team will drop much, maybe just to #4 or #5 and probably remain ahead of UGA as the best 1 loss team due to the opponent lost to.

Come crunch time for selection in December there will be some recency bias and if UGA wins the SEC then imo there will be heavy consideration for putting in a team that just lost to UGA. The loser of this game this weekend stands to benefit in that scenario. But the most likely scenario is probably Bama and LSU both making it in because they will have the best loss/resume of any one loss team if both go on to win out.

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44 minutes ago, BamaBirdLady said:

I like your thinking, but not sure Bama gets in with a loss to LSU.

Remember it was the rematch of LSU vs Bama in the 2012 Sugar Bowl during BCS era that really gave the playoff system legs. Bama had lost the regular season game to LSU and then won Sugar Bowl for NC. I don’t think if Bama looses regular season game again, they will give them another chance.

However, if LSU were to lose on Saturday I think they might have a shot.

Bama’s last Natty they got in after losing to Auburn and failed to make the SECCG.   Unfortunately all of us Dawgs are aware of this deference by the committee to Nick Saban.   Like it or not, Bama tends to get the benefit of the doubt.

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16 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Bama’s last Natty they got in after losing to Auburn and failed to make the SECCG.   Unfortunately all of us Dawgs are aware of this deference by the committee to Nick Saban.   Like it or not, Bama tends to get the benefit of the doubt.

True, Bama does get the benefit of the doubt because of what they have done in the past 10 years. That's just human nature.

The flipside of the coin is that everyone is sick and tired of Bama! I don't blame them. If I didn't go to Bama,  I would be tired of us too!

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Take it fwiw, but Finebaum was on local radio this morning. He seems to think Tua will play Saturday. Based off his information, the recovery is going much better than anyone expected. 

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Got a little insider news, now remember, it is insider news so, TIFWIW.

Anyway, the rumor is that LSU linebacker, Michael Divinity will be suspended for the game this weekend and maybe more. Some sort of legal issue.

Delpit is more injured than they are letting onto and has missed the last few practices.

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14 minutes ago, BamaBirdLady said:

Got a little insider news, now remember, it is insider news so, TIFWIW.

Anyway, the rumor is that LSU linebacker, Michael Divinity will be suspended for the game this weekend and maybe more. Some sort of legal issue.

Delpit is more injured than they are letting onto and has missed the last few practices.

Might explain the betting line being as high as it is - Vegas bookmakers usually know the injury situations better than the public.

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If Delpit can’t play that definitely hurts for LSU. He’s the best player and biggest impact player for a defense that hasn’t otherwise been all that good this season. They have a ton of elite talent in the secondary though. 

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12 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Might explain the betting line being as high as it is - Vegas bookmakers usually know the injury situations better than the public.

Divinity is a realy good LB for them. 22 tackles, 17 solo, 4 sacks, 1 FF. Losing him would be big. LSU is being REAL quiet about it right now.

I agree with you and @Carter as for as the line goes. I was happy to the opening line at -7 without Tua and up to -10 with Tua, but I must say I was surprised.

Missing Divinity and especially Delpit would explain a lot!

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5 minutes ago, BamaBirdLady said:

Just announced about 5 minutes ago, Michael Divinity has been kicked off the LSU football team.

Wow, talk about horrible timing for LSU.

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6 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Wow, talk about horrible timing for LSU.

Yep. I'm hearing it was weed. It's a shame that these kids can't stay off of it when they have the whole world in their hands. I know weed isn't what it was in my day, but I have seen so many young people throw away so much because of it.

Say what you want, it's just weed, but for now it is illegal in this state and LA. Follow the rules, sign a big fat NFL contract, and live a life you can't imagine. SMH

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Stephen A Smith: STAY OFF THE WEEEEEEEEEEED

Auburn is a tougher game for Alabama than LSU IMO. Better DL and a team that gets voodoo magic every time they play 

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3 minutes ago, tl;dr said:

Stephen A Smith: STAY OFF THE WEEEEEEEEEEED

Auburn is a tougher game for Alabama than LSU IMO. Better DL and a team that gets voodoo magic every time they play 

We could be 11-0 and auburn could be 0-11 and I would still be worried about the Iron Bowl.

That is one game that records really don't matter!

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Delpit is still not practicing with the team. No word from LSU, but the fact that he is not able to practice doesn't look good for his availability on Saturday. 

And who knows how healthy he will be if he plays. Word is it was an ankle sprain,  he would have serious problems covering receivers with a bad ankle.

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As of this morning, the line is at -6, so a little movement, but not much. Starter has still not been announced, but most people betting on Tua to start.

Delpit still has not been at practice and many believe that he will try to start, but certainly will not be 100%. Given his position, this is really going to hurt given our receivers.

Dare Rosenthal starting LT is out for the game too.

Al the Bama players banged up during Arkansas game are back and 100%.

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