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Fixing the Falcons Part 2 – FA & Draft


Smiler11

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Part 1 covered the front office and coaching staff and is available here.

Let Walk

Vic Beasley

Devondre Campbell

Matt Bosher

Kenjon Barner

Justin Hardy

Kemal Ishmael

Jack Crawford

Adrian Clayborn

 

Cut

Devonta Freeman ($3.5m in savings)

Ty Sambrailo ($3.75m in savings)

Matt Schaub ($2m in savings)

Allen Bailey ($4.5m in savings)

Desmond Trufant ($10.75m in savings if designated 6/1)

 

That would leave us with ~ $25m in available cap space. To generate more cap room you could restructure Ryan’s, Julio’s or Matthews contract and/or extend Alex Mack. You could also make Freeman a post June 1st cut, saving an additional $3m in 2020. For the purpose of this exercise let’s assume we have approx. $30m in cap space to play with.

 

Re-Sign

Steven Means (~$1m p/a)

Tyeler Davison (~$3-4m p/a)

Austin Hooper (~$10m p/a)

Keith Smith (~$1m p/a)

Accounting for escalating cap hits, I’d project the impact to the 2020 cap to be around $11m, leaving us with ~ $19m in cap space. 

 

Free Agency

Jadeveon Clowney (~$15m p/a) – Clowney is allegedly looking for $20m a year, however for a player who has never recorded more than 10 sacks in a season and only once played in all 16 regular season games, I don’t think it’s likely. That said he still a player who gives opposing tackles fits in both the run and pass game and someone that needs to be accounted for on every single snap. If you’ve read part 1, then you’ll know I’m advocating for us running a wide 9 defense next year, a la Jim Schwartz, but to do it you need quality linemen. Clowney is the first part of the puzzle and someone who makes every level of the defense better.

 

Draft

1. Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

6-5, 265lbs. There are not enough superlatives to describe the season Chase Young is having right now – 37 total pressures & 13.5 sacks on just 158 pass rushing attempts (23.4% pressure rate). He wins with power, speed, finesse, technique & hustle. He wins inside and outside. Simply put he is the best player in college right now and arguably to best and most complete pass rusher to come out in a long time.

 

 

2. Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State

6-5, 320lbs. Wilson’s dominant 2019 season has been one of the few bright spots for the Seminoles this year as he’s recorded 5 sacks, five QB hits and another 12 hurries while racking up 11 stops in run defense. He’s somewhat in the shadow of his SEC counterparts Brown and Kinlaw, but he’s been the most disruptive interior pass rusher in college this year. His pass rush technique is still developing but he displays active, extremely powerful hands and there are moments when he just completely overwhelms opponents with his power. In run defense he rarely gets moved off his spot. He’s a guy who could line up in any defensive front, in any technique.

 

 

 

2 (from Patriots). Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State

6-1, 194lbs. The former 5-star, #1 CB recruit in the nation is the ultimate, versatile weapon in Ohio States backfield. Jeffrey Okudah gets most of the plaudits, but Wade is a talent in his own right. Ohio State use him as a defensive match up, with Wade lining up both inside and outside as well as at safety on occasion. Lightening quick, with a nose for the football and not afraid to lay the wood, Wade is the epitome of the modern DB. Minkah Fitzpatrick is good comparison, although Wade is tad more athletic and physical, albeit slightly less experienced than Minkah was coming out. Like Minkah though his best fit might ultimately be at safety but I’d wager he’d succeed anywhere on the back-end.

 

 

3. Donavon Peoples-Jones, WR, Michigan

6-2, 210lbs. Big-time athlete (42-inch vert and 4.4 speed) who can contribute all over the field as well as return kicks. Fantastic with the ball in his hands and a threat to take it to the house every time he touches it. The former 5-star recruit has been held back by an anaemic offense led by Shea Patterson and an early season injury that forced him to sit. Under a creative offensive play caller and competent QB, I have no doubt he’d be a first-round pick.

 

 

4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU

5-8, 210lbs. Don’t be deceived by his height, CEH is a pocket rocket, who packs a punch, very much in the mould of an MJD or dare I say it Devonta Freeman. Somewhat overshadowed by Joe Burrow and the LSU passing game in the early part of the season, CEH has started to make a name for himself these past few weeks. He’s averaging just under 6 yards per carry and has 8 TD’s through 8 games. He’s also LSU’s designated kick returner.

 

 

5. Matt Hennessy, C, Temple

6-4, 295lbs. Hennessy has arguably been the best center in football the past 2 years surrendering 0 sacks and only 5 pressures in that period. He wins with his hands, speed and technique in both the pass and the run game. He’s versatile enough to play in any blocking scheme and could cover any OL spot in a pinch. Give him a year under Mack and he might just be the heir apparent.

 

 

7. Kyle Dugger, LB/S, Lenoir-Rhyne

6-2, 220lbs. Kyle Dugger could just be the next DII draft diamond – Bruce Feldman certainly thinks so. He named Dugger, from little-known school Lenoir-Rhyne, as him #19 freak. “Dugger has run a verified 4.41 40 for scouts. Even more impressively, he’s vertical jumped 40 inches and broad jumped 11 feet. He also did 20 reps on the bench of 225 this offseason and timed 6.7 in the 3-cone drill, which would have been the second quickest time among safeties at the NFL Combine in 2019". On tape Dugger is so much bigger, faster and stronger than every other player on the field, heck they even play him at KR just to take advantage of his athleticism. Again, he’s the epitome of the modern hybrid linebacker that is equally adept in the box as he is in space.  

 

 

7 (from Eagles). James Smith-Williams, DE, NC State

6-3, 265lbs. Last season, Smith-Williams had a breakout year with 36 total tackles, six sacks and nine tackles for loss - leading all defensive linemen for the Pack. He headed into this season as the top edge rusher on the team. Unfortunately, injuries have hampered his production on the pitch this season and largely why he’s likely a day 3 pick. Off the field he’s a 265lb athlete that runs in the 4.5’s, vertical jumps 40 inches, benches, squats and cleans 420, 620 and 374 respectively.  

 

 

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5 hours ago, Smiler11 said:

Part 1 covered the front office and coaching staff and is available here.

Let Walk

Vic Beasley

Devondre Campbell

Matt Bosher

Kenjon Barner

Justin Hardy

Kemal Ishmael

Jack Crawford

Adrian Clayborn

 

Cut

Devonta Freeman ($3.5m in savings)

Ty Sambrailo ($3.75m in savings)

Matt Schaub ($2m in savings)

Allen Bailey ($4.5m in savings)

Desmond Trufant ($10.75m in savings if designated 6/1)

 

That would leave us with ~ $25m in available cap space. To generate more cap room you could restructure Ryan’s, Julio’s or Matthews contract and/or extend Alex Mack. You could also make Freeman a post June 1st cut, saving an additional $3m in 2020. For the purpose of this exercise let’s assume we have approx. $30m in cap space to play with.

 

Re-Sign

Steven Means (~$1m p/a)

Tyeler Davison (~$3-4m p/a)

Austin Hooper (~$10m p/a)

Jermaine Grace (~$2m p/a)

Keith Smith (~$1m p/a)

Accounting for escalating cap hits, I’d project the impact to the 2020 cap to be around $13m, leaving us with ~ $17m in cap space. 

 

Free Agency

Jadeveon Clowney (~$15m p/a) – Clowney is allegedly looking for $20m a year, however for a player who has never recorded more than 10 sacks in a season and only once played in all 16 regular season games, I don’t think it’s likely. That said he still a player who gives opposing tackles fits in both the run and pass game and someone that needs to be accounted for on every single snap. If you’ve read part 1, then you’ll know I’m advocating for us running a wide 9 defense next year, a la Jim Schwartz, but to do it you need quality linemen. Clowney is the first part of the puzzle and someone who makes every level of the defense better.

 

Draft

1. Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

6-5, 265lbs. There are not enough superlatives to describe the season Chase Young is having right now – 37 total pressures & 13.5 sacks on just 158 pass rushing attempts (23.4% pressure rate). He wins with power, speed, finesse, technique & hustle. He wins inside and outside. Simply put he is the best player in college right now and arguably to best and most complete pass rusher to come out in a long time.

 

 

2. Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State

6-5, 320lbs. Wilson’s dominant 2019 season has been one of the few bright spots for the Seminoles this year as he’s recorded 5 sacks, five QB hits and another 12 hurries while racking up 11 stops in run defense. He’s somewhat in the shadow of his SEC counterparts Brown and Kinlaw, but he’s been the most disruptive interior pass rusher in college this year. His pass rush technique is still developing but he displays active, extremely powerful hands and there are moments when he just completely overwhelms opponents with his power. In run defense he rarely gets moved off his spot. He’s a guy who could line up in any defensive front, in any technique.

 

 

 

2 (from Patriots). Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State

6-1, 194lbs. The former 5-star, #1 CB recruit in the nation is the ultimate, versatile weapon in Ohio States backfield. Jeffrey Okudah gets most of the plaudits, but Wade is a talent in his own right. Ohio State use him as a defensive match up, with Wade lining up both inside and outside as well as at safety on occasion. Lightening quick, with a nose for the football and not afraid to lay the wood, Wade is the epitome of the modern DB. Minkah Fitzpatrick is good comparison, although Wade is tad more athletic and physical, albeit slightly less experienced than Minkah was coming out. Like Minkah though his best fit might ultimately be at safety but I’d wager he’d succeed anywhere on the back-end.

 

 

3. Donavon Peoples-Jones, WR, Michigan

6-2, 210lbs. Big-time athlete (42-inch vert and 4.4 speed) who can contribute all over the field as well as return kicks. Fantastic with the ball in his hands and a threat to take it to the house every time he touches it. The former 5-star recruit has been held back by an anaemic offense led by Shea Patterson and an early season injury that forced him to sit. Under a creative offensive play caller and competent QB, I have no doubt he’d be a first-round pick.

 

 

4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU

5-8, 210lbs. Don’t be deceived by his height, CEH is a pocket rocket, who packs a punch, very much in the mould of an MJD or dare I say it Devonta Freeman. Somewhat overshadowed by Joe Burrow and the LSU passing game in the early part of the season, CEH has started to make a name for himself these past few weeks. He’s averaging just under 6 yards per carry and has 8 TD’s through 8 games. He’s also LSU’s designated kick returner.

 

 

5. Matt Hennessy, C, Temple

6-4, 295lbs. Hennessy has arguably been the best center in football the past 2 years surrendering 0 sacks and only 5 pressures in that period. He wins with his hands, speed and technique in both the pass and the run game. He’s versatile enough to play in any blocking scheme and could cover any OL spot in a pinch. Give him a year under Mack and he might just be the heir apparent.

 

 

7. Kyle Dugger, LB/S, Lenoir-Rhyne

6-2, 220lbs. Kyle Dugger could just be the next DII draft diamond – Bruce Feldman certainly thinks so. He named Dugger, from little-known school Lenoir-Rhyne, as him #19 freak. “Dugger has run a verified 4.41 40 for scouts. Even more impressively, he’s vertical jumped 40 inches and broad jumped 11 feet. He also did 20 reps on the bench of 225 this offseason and timed 6.7 in the 3-cone drill, which would have been the second quickest time among safeties at the NFL Combine in 2019". On tape Dugger is so much bigger, faster and stronger than every other player on the field, heck they even play him at KR just to take advantage of his athleticism. Again, he’s the epitome of the modern hybrid linebacker that is equally adept in the box as he is in space.  

 

 

7 (from Eagles). James Smith-Williams, DE, NC State

6-3, 265lbs. Last season, Smith-Williams had a breakout year with 36 total tackles, six sacks and nine tackles for loss - leading all defensive linemen for the Pack. He headed into this season as the top edge rusher on the team. Unfortunately, injuries have hampered his production on the pitch this season and largely why he’s likely a day 3 pick. Off the field he’s a 265lb athlete that runs in the 4.5’s, vertical jumps 40 inches, benches, squats and cleans 420, 620 and 374 respectively.  

 

 

Nice work!!  Most of this makes sense to me. I like the Clowney idea. We need a veteran up there that can get after qb.   Only thing I wondered abt was extending Mack. I like him a lot and he’s the anchor on that line but I’m concerned w how much he’s got left in tank.  Of course, u pull this type of makeover and he’d prbly be a bit more energized.  

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3 hours ago, BUBBASBEANS said:

Nice work!!  Most of this makes sense to me. I like the Clowney idea. We need a veteran up there that can get after qb.   Only thing I wondered abt was extending Mack. I like him a lot and he’s the anchor on that line but I’m concerned w how much he’s got left in tank.  Of course, u pull this type of makeover and he’d prbly be a bit more energized.  

I didn't extend Mack per say but left it on the table as an option. There is a lot you could potentially do, including adding 'phantom' years onto the contract to spread some of his cap hit this year - very much like how the Eagles operate.

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1 hour ago, MSalmon said:

I like it. I've been tracking Dugger too, but I'm protecting him as a SS instead of fulltime LB. Or more of a hybrid player. Nothing wrong with that by the way, I think his size, speed and athleticism makes him a good in the box guy to succeed keanu

I was projecting him as a SS as well. 

Unless Keanu Neal is fully healed and can pass the physical come March, his 5th year option is guaranteed. 

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9 hours ago, Cole World said:

Matt Hennessy older brother Thomas is the LS for the Jets.

I still prefer to draft Creed Humphrey with a early pick but Hennessy is a good backup plan if we couldn’t get Creed.

Tony Pauline has Hennessy as his 5th best center prospect for 2020.

 

Hennessy, considered an NFL prospect, might have a difficult decision at the end of the season about entering the draft or returning to Temple for his final season of eligibility. When it was suggested to one NFL scout, who requested anonymity, that Hennessy could be a mid-round draft pick, the scout disagreed.

“He is better than a mid-round pick,” the scout said. “If he decided to come out, he is such a good athlete, I think that he would be a guy people would be interested in.”

While so much is made of Hennessy’s intelligence, the scout said his athletic ability stands out on tape.

“He is an athletic center, and those guys in this day and age with zone teams, he can get to the second level,” the said scout. “He is a really good athlete, smart, and I think will be a quality NFL center.”

“It is super tough to speculate,” said Hennessy. “All I can do is take things one day at a time.”

It might not be the most exciting response, but that is how Hennessy lives his life.

Among the other honors he has received is earning a single-digit uniform number, which Temple awards to players for their toughness and dedication. Since offensive linemen are required to wear jersey numbers from 50 to 79 in games, Hennessy still wears a No. 58 jersey for games but last year was awarded No. 3 to wear on his practice jersey, and on his helmet during games.

“He is the same guy every day, the same attitude, ready to work, never complains,” senior linebacker Sam Franklin, another single-digit player, said of Hennessy. “He is the embodiment of the single digit.”

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13 minutes ago, Cole World said:

I was projecting him as a SS as well. 

Unless Keanu Neal is fully healed and can pass the physical come March, his 5th year option is guaranteed. 

Yeah, I've been surprised that Foye, who played SS in college, hasn't been tried at SS post Neal injury

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2 hours ago, MSalmon said:

I like it. I've been tracking Dugger too, but I'm protecting him as a SS instead of fulltime LB. Or more of a hybrid player. Nothing wrong with that by the way, I think his size, speed and athleticism makes him a good in the box guy to succeed keanu

Obviously a lot depends on the scheme we employ next year. In our current scheme he's an ideal fit for the Neal role. In a traditional 2 deep safety look, he's probably more of a hybrid linebacker. I love his versatility though and if all else fails we can put him at kick returner.

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3 hours ago, Cole World said:

I was projecting him as a SS as well. 

Unless Keanu Neal is fully healed and can pass the physical come March, his 5th year option is guaranteed. 

I think we keep him regardless. Even on the 5th year option, safeties are cheap. Neal is the tone setter for this defense and they look lost without him. 

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3 hours ago, Cole World said:

I still prefer to draft Creed Humphrey with a early pick but Hennessy is a good backup plan if we couldn’t get Creed.

Tony Pauline has Hennessy as his 5th best center prospect for 2020.

 

Hennessy, considered an NFL prospect, might have a difficult decision at the end of the season about entering the draft or returning to Temple for his final season of eligibility. When it was suggested to one NFL scout, who requested anonymity, that Hennessy could be a mid-round draft pick, the scout disagreed.

“He is better than a mid-round pick,” the scout said. “If he decided to come out, he is such a good athlete, I think that he would be a guy people would be interested in.”

While so much is made of Hennessy’s intelligence, the scout said his athletic ability stands out on tape.

“He is an athletic center, and those guys in this day and age with zone teams, he can get to the second level,” the said scout. “He is a really good athlete, smart, and I think will be a quality NFL center.”

“It is super tough to speculate,” said Hennessy. “All I can do is take things one day at a time.”

It might not be the most exciting response, but that is how Hennessy lives his life.

Among the other honors he has received is earning a single-digit uniform number, which Temple awards to players for their toughness and dedication. Since offensive linemen are required to wear jersey numbers from 50 to 79 in games, Hennessy still wears a No. 58 jersey for games but last year was awarded No. 3 to wear on his practice jersey, and on his helmet during games.

“He is the same guy every day, the same attitude, ready to work, never complains,” senior linebacker Sam Franklin, another single-digit player, said of Hennessy. “He is the embodiment of the single digit.”

I like Humphrey. I like the LSU center as well. If we're sticking to the ZBS, then Hennessy looks like a great fit.

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2 hours ago, Smiler11 said:

I think we keep him regardless. Even on the 5th year option, safeties are cheap. Neal is the tone setter for this defense and they look lost without him. 

Why pick up his option though? Coming off 2 acl injuries he’s not gonna have much of a market. Could release and resign for much less money. 

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I think depending on draft position. I bet we win at least one or two more meaningless games which I think puts us out of the Chase Yoing sweepstakes. That is unless we ruin our draft and mortgage the future and trade our 1st and both 2nd’s to move up to get him. I think that is the only way we get him. Unless Blank fires Quinn and has interim head coach use the rest of the season to evaluate the young unproven talent on our roster. Which is what should be done in my opinion. If the season is lost then use this time to prepare for next year. 

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Most likely if Quinn remains and we do squeeze a win or two and refuse to trade up. Which I don’t think with our needs we can afford or even consider doing. I think most likely we end up with one of these recruits as our first round draft choice. Obviously Chase Young is the first choice if we manage to go 1-15 for the season. But I just don’t see us with Quinn coaching for his job not at least at the worst splitting the series with the Bucs if not sweeping them. Maybe even a surprise win like the Eagles game. So Blank & the Falcons have a chance at the top DE in this years draft. But Quinn is playing to win. Like I said if the seasons over we should fire Quinn, get a interim head coach to evaluate young talent or we will be choosing from the players below. That’s not a bad thing, as far as being stuck with the players below. But this team is cap strapped and needs a pass rush and only way I see to do that is so through the draft. We can not afford a pass rusher of Chase Young’s caliber. We would have him on the low for 5 years. I really hope we get him but in heart think despite how awful we are playing this roster is to good inspite of Quinn to not win at least one or two more games. So I am almost positive one of the guys below will be a Falcon.  

 

Pulled info. off of Walter football. Not always the most accurate but site is pretty spot on as far as to the first top ten or top 15 selections.

 

Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State 

Height: 6-1. Weight: 200.
Projected 40 Time: 4.52.
Projected Round (2019): 1. 

   Okudah has 21 tackles with three passes broken up and three interceptions so far this season. Okudah saw some brief action as a freshman, recording 17 tackles and a breakup before playing more as a sophomore. In 2018, he totaled 32 tackles with eight breakups. 

   Okudah has a great skill set with upside to develop. The 6-foot-1, 200-pounder is big, athletic and agile and can run. He is superb at blanketing receivers and preventing separation. Okudah has all the physical skill set NFL teams hope to find in a No. 1 cornerback, and he is putting it all together with a dominant junior season thus far.

Grant Delpit, S, LSU

Height: 6-3. Weight: 208

Projected 40 Time: 4.51.
Projected Round (2020): 1.

His tremendous instincts cause him to be all over the field for the Tigers, as he is always around the ball making plays for his defense and making it difficult for the offense to move the ball. Delpit's awareness and recognition skills are off the charts, as he is assignment sound in pass coverage while also using his innate intelligence to get in position to make stops in the ground game. Delpit is one of the most instinctive defenders this analyst has seen over the past few draft classes. 

In pass defense, Delpit is impressive. He is a dangerous blitzer and adept at getting after the quarterback. Delpit is a special defender in coverage as well. He has the speed to cover a lot of ground and also is able to run with receivers downfield. Delpit does a tremendous job of using his vision to play the ball and break up passes while covering wideouts. Delpit shows the ability where he could help cover tight ends and big receivers in man coverage. He also could play some nickel corner over slot receivers. With his range, quickness and instincts, Delpit could be a cross-trained defender who also plays free safety downfield. Delpit looks more natural and comfortable playing strong safety, but he definitely has the ability to be a free safety as well. He lined up all over the place for LSU in 2018, including some free safety, and did well as the last line of defense. In the NFL, Delpit will be an asset as an interchangeable safety. 

As a run defender, Delpit is a good contributor. He uses his tremendous instincts to fire to the ball and make tackles to prevent big plays. Delpit is a smart tackler who shows good technique to tackle defenders low. Delpit is not the thickest or strongest of safeties, but he throws his body around and shows no hesitation to fire into the scrum and make a tackle. Delpit looks very comfortable near the line of scrimmage and being the eighth man in the box. In the NFL, he should be a valuable defender in stopping rushing attacks. 

 

Kenneth Murray, OLB/ILB, Oklahoma 

Height: 6-2. Weight: 238.

Projected 40 Time: 4.67.
Projected Round (2020): 1-2.

Murray is a fast and physical linebacker who flies around the field and is always around the ball. He is put together well and a good tackler. At times, Murray can make mistakes from being overly aggressive and over-pursuing on some plays, but he is a heat-seeking missile who is generating a big buzz in the scouting community as a future three-down starter and difference-maker. Murray is a sideline-to-sideline run defender, good in zone coverage, covers a lot of ground in pass defense, and is a dangerous blitzer. Murray reminds this evaluator of a young Thomas Davis. In 2019, Murray has 42 tackles with 2.5 sacks and two passes batted. 

Derrick Brown, DE/DT, Auburn

Height: 6-4. Weight: 322.

Projected 40 Time: 4.95

Projected Round (2020): Top-16.

Derrick Brown has great size (6-4, 322) and tons of upside. He can be a great interior disruptor if he lives up to his potential. He had a chance to be a top-five pick (No. 4 overall?) in the 2019 NFL Draft before he returned to school.
 

In 2019, Brown has 17 tackles with three sacks, three passes batted and two forced fumbles. Auburn had a bye last week. Brown was an animal against Florida with a strip-sack, two fumble recoveries, lots of yardage on fumble returns, and ton of disruption in the backfield. After only playing one series against Kent State, Brown dominated against Texas A&M. He was an animal in the ground game and collected two sacks and a forced fumble as a pass-rusher.

 

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11 hours ago, Smiler11 said:

I didn't extend Mack per say but left it on the table as an option. There is a lot you could potentially do, including adding 'phantom' years onto the contract to spread some of his cap hit this year - very much like how the Eagles operate.

Very sound game plan!  I didn’t think about the phantom year idea.  That makes  good sense.  We def don’t need to let him walk w/o a known commodity ready to step in.  Prbly more than a few people on this board would be satisfied w this or something similar.  I really hope we can get leadership of this team in place w/o mucking up our offseason planning too much.  Hopefully AB is putting feelers out (some would say that’s wrong I guess) but it’s another reason why I feel at this pt we need to move swiftly.  Thx for your astute analysis!!

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