falcons007

Cap space, trade and Cuts guide for 2019 and 2020.

37 posts in this topic

I will leave this post here as a reference to save the same typing  in 20 other threads on 20 different players.

TL;DR: The New coaching staff will have 50 M and draft to replace 2-3 starters, decide on Hooper and get a starting DE and LB along with rotational and backups. It is far from doom and gloom with a  total rebuild. 

I will start with the most unlikely players who can be cut or traded. 

Matt Ryan: 

The cash already paid from 2018-2019: 74 M.

Cap hit from 2018-2019: 33.5 M

Difference between cash paid and cap hit: 31.5 M. 

If you trade Ryan in before draft: The dead cap at minimum is 31.5 M, and assuming team trading will take an additional 10 M hit on 33.5 M cap hit. 

The bottom line is Falcons will have to make more cuts just to get out of cap **** by trading Ryan. I don't think there is any team in NFL, which will take a 43.5 M cap hit for Ryan in 2020 with a trade. 

I am not going to bother with details of cutting Ryan straight up. 

In 2021, the dead cap will be 29 M either in the trade or straight-up cut. Post 6/1 will split some of the money, but the team will be in cap ****.

In 2022, this is a realistic year to cut with 15 M dead cap, if Ryan doesn't perform well and draft a QB. 

Julio Jones: 

If he is traded in 2019, the team will have to take at least 23 M dead cap and at worst 32 M in dead cap. The team which will trade for Julio will have a cap hit between 20 M to 29 M. Not many teams would trade first-rounders and take a huge cap hit. The team will have to let go of multiple players to just get under the cap after trading Julio.

Like Ryan, realistically, the team can trade or cut Julio by taking 15 M dead cap in the year 2022. I would bet on Julio going somewhere before Ryan leaves ATL if either one of them won't finish their career here..

Debo and Grady would be hard cuts till 2022. Both of them could be trade candidates in 2021 with out too much dead cap. 

Likely Trades/Cuts: 

Freeman: 

Freeman was untradeable unless the other team was giving falcons a top 3 round pick. If Falcons traded Freeman this year, his dead cap would have been 7.5 M next year. 

The best case is to designate him as post 6/1 cut with 6.5 M cap savings next year and 3 M dead cap in both 2020 and 2021. 

Trufant: 

He was untradeable this year; Falcons would have taken 24 M dead cap in next two years. 

In 2019, if he is a post 6/1 cut, the Falcons can save 10 M in cap space with 10 M in dead money spread over 2020 and 2021. 

Alex Mack: 

From Cap perspective, he is the easiest cut in 2020, Cap savings of 8.5 M and 2.5 M dead cap. If the Falcons get an offensive mind as HC, the new coach can draft a center in the first three rounds and replace Mack. It may not be an easy replacement but possible with the right coach. 

Ty Sambrailo:  Easy cut with 2 M dead money and 3.75 M in cap savings. 

Keanu Neal:  He is counting 6.4 M against the cap in 2020. The new Coach may not want to keep him at that price. If he is let go, the Falcons get full cap savings. 

Luke Stocker:   Cap savings of 2.6 M and dead cap of 750K. This is no brainer cut.

Allen Bailey  Cap savings 4.5 M and dead cap 1.5 M. It could be an easy cut. 

Ricardo Allen:  4.25 dead money and 3.15 Savings, Post June 1st: 5.25 saving and 2.2 M dead money in 2020 and 2021. 

Schaub 2 M in savings.  

 

Post-June 1st cuts: Freeman and Trufant, that's savings of 16.5 M. Need to find cheaper CB and RB in FA or draft. RB is easier, but CB may need a first-round pick. 

Cutting Mack, Ty, Neal, Stocker, and Bailey will save 25.7 M. Mack is the only guy who has contributed in the last two years, Neal is good but hasn't played much in the last two seasons. Other players are backups and rotational players. Get a decent vet Center and SS. 

Rico: He is in the middle with more dead money in 2020, and not much savings post-June 1 st cut. I can see him post-June cut and save another 5.25 M. 

With all the likely cuts, Falcons can save 46.7 M with the need to replace Starting Center, Starting CB, Starting FS, and an injured starting SS in draft and FA. RB can be found later in the draft with good ZBS.

The New coaching staff will have 50 M and draft to replace 2-3 starters, decide on Hooper and get a starting DE and LB along with rotational and backups. This is far from doom and gloom with a  total rebuild.  

 


 

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2 hours ago, atljbo said:

There is no 6/1 designation right now.... We are in the last year of the CBA

I know but most of the reports are saying the NFLPA and Owners wants to get the deal done by March 2020. If they can’t then Teams will restructure and not cut. 

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3 hours ago, atljbo said:

There is no 6/1 designation right now.... We are in the last year of the CBA

Good point. I guess straight up cuts and extension/restructure to convert monies again for Ryan/Matthews might have to be done.

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@falcons007 Not to derail your thread, but this was insightful to me on cap moves moving forward:

http://www.riseupreader.com/atlanta-falcons/examining-the-falcons-future-following-the-grady-jarrett-deion-jones-and-julio-jones-contract-extensions/

It makes things doable for 2020 vs impossible today and doesn't mortgage much of 2021 and beyond to get a competitive 2020 team fielded. Key is the draft and stopgap FA signings being picky like we were this year.

A better coaching staff and high picks each round may do the trick.

Of course, if DQ leads the team to an 8-0 finish he might be safe. :ninja:

I digress...his projections on Hooper re-signing is low after Austin has gone off this year, but he said as much and it's still not the world for a TE. Also, Sanu's cap relief is the same, but rollover cap by end of 2019 is what seems to be changing.

However, he correctly estimated we'd be around $5M in rollover; ($5.22M):

https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report

Presuming no major moves by seasons end; rip Wetzel.

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9 hours ago, Ergo Proxy said:

@falcons007 Not to derail your thread, but this was insightful to me on cap moves moving forward:

http://www.riseupreader.com/atlanta-falcons/examining-the-falcons-future-following-the-grady-jarrett-deion-jones-and-julio-jones-contract-extensions/

It makes things doable for 2020 vs impossible today and doesn't mortgage much of 2021 and beyond to get a competitive 2020 team fielded. Key is the draft and stopgap FA signings being picky like we were this year.

A better coaching staff and high picks each round may do the trick.

Of course, if DQ leads the team to an 8-0 finish he might be safe. :ninja:

I digress...his projections on Hooper re-signing is low after Austin has gone off this year, but he said as much and it's still not the world for a TE. Also, Sanu's cap relief is the same, but rollover cap by end of 2019 is what seems to be changing.

However, he correctly estimated we'd be around $5M in rollover; ($5.22M):

https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report

Presuming no major moves by seasons end; rip Wetzel.

DQ is gone anything less than a deep playoff run. It’s no gloom and doom even with out 6/1. Freeman and Trufant are the only guys with more dead money. The team will still have 40 M or so. The biggest decision next year would be Mack, that will depend on the new HC.

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3 hours ago, falcons007 said:

DQ is gone anything less than a deep playoff run. It’s no gloom and doom even with out 6/1. Freeman and Trufant are the only guys with more dead money. The team will still have 40 M or so. The biggest decision next year would be Mack, that will depend on the new HC.

I know it's all about the new HC and his OC, but wes hasn't done to bad the times he's been in a C. I know I sure am looking forward to Lindstrom getting back in. I hope he's able to get some viable snaps this year to get him ready for next year.

 

I'm still hoping we can get someone from the Mike Shannahan/Gary Kubiak tree, even Kubiak himself, even it it's just a couple years to groom someone like McDaniel to take over. 

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1 hour ago, papachaz said:

I know it's all about the new HC and his OC, but wes hasn't done to bad the times he's been in a C. I know I sure am looking forward to Lindstrom getting back in. I hope he's able to get some viable snaps this year to get him ready for next year.

 

I'm still hoping we can get someone from the Mike Shannahan/Gary Kubiak tree, even Kubiak himself, even it it's just a couple years to groom someone like McDaniel to take over. 

4

He is a UFA next year. I doubt the new HC would want to spend 2-3 M to sign him. Stefansky could be an option for Shanahan tree. 

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lol @falcons007, wish I would have seen this thread before going to OTC salary cap simulator to show how easily we can get from 5 million over to 40 million under.  I did the exact same exercise and we have the exact same cuts, except I retained Rico:

Desmond Trufant - Post June 1 : $10,750,000
Alex Mack - Cut : $8,000,000
Devonta Freeman - Post June 1 : $6,500,000
Keanu Neal : $6,466,000
Allen Bailey : $4,500,000
Ty Sambrailo : Post June 1 : $4,750,000
Luke Stocker : $2,600,000
Matt Schaub : $2,000,000

Gets us from...

Year	Total Liabilities	Salary Cap      (Projected) Cap Room
2019	$183,162,267	    $189,025,982	$5,863,715
2020	$205,553,782	    $200,000,000	($5,553,782)
2021	$182,076,520	    $200,000,000	$17,923,480
2022	$150,380,598	    $200,000,000	$49,619,402
2023	$84,067,860  	    $200,000,000	$115,932,140

To...

Year	Total Liabilities	Salary Cap      (Projected) Cap Room
2019	$183,162,267	    $189,025,982	$5,863,715
2020	$159,987,782	    $200,000,000	$40,012,218
2021	$161,176,520	    $200,000,000	$38,823,480
2022	$128,030,598	    $200,000,000	$71,969,402
2023	$84,067,860	    $200,000,000	$115,932,140

The salary cap situation will only be as dire as the next regime chooses it to be.  There are some pretty obvious cuts to free up a ton of space and go after some players that can actually play the game.  This also doesn't take into account the rising cap, and any potential contract restructures for obvious candidates like Ryan and Matthews.

If anyone wants to play GM...

https://overthecap.com/calculator/atlanta-falcons/

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@athell You can only post-June 1st two players, IIRC?

Don't post-June 1st Trufant as you are trying to lessen his 2021 and 2022 dead cap hits; eat it all in 2020 and gain roughly $5M in cap space right away.

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4 hours ago, athell said:

lol @falcons007, wish I would have seen this thread before going to OTC salary cap simulator to show how easily we can get from 5 million over to 40 million under.  I did the exact same exercise and we have the exact same cuts, except I retained Rico:

Desmond Trufant - Post June 1 : $10,750,000
Alex Mack - Cut : $8,000,000
Devonta Freeman - Post June 1 : $6,500,000
Keanu Neal : $6,466,000
Allen Bailey : $4,500,000
Ty Sambrailo : Post June 1 : $4,750,000
Luke Stocker : $2,600,000
Matt Schaub : $2,000,000

Gets us from...


Year	Total Liabilities	Salary Cap      (Projected) Cap Room
2019	$183,162,267	    $189,025,982	$5,863,715
2020	$205,553,782	    $200,000,000	($5,553,782)
2021	$182,076,520	    $200,000,000	$17,923,480
2022	$150,380,598	    $200,000,000	$49,619,402
2023	$84,067,860  	    $200,000,000	$115,932,140

To...


Year	Total Liabilities	Salary Cap      (Projected) Cap Room
2019	$183,162,267	    $189,025,982	$5,863,715
2020	$159,987,782	    $200,000,000	$40,012,218
2021	$161,176,520	    $200,000,000	$38,823,480
2022	$128,030,598	    $200,000,000	$71,969,402
2023	$84,067,860	    $200,000,000	$115,932,140

The salary cap situation will only be as dire as the next regime chooses it to be.  There are some pretty obvious cuts to free up a ton of space and go after some players that can actually play the game.  This also doesn't take into account the rising cap, and any potential contract restructures for obvious candidates like Ryan and Matthews.

If anyone wants to play GM...

https://overthecap.com/calculator/atlanta-falcons/

We good. I didn’t play with simulator but wanted to provide numbers on trades and cuts.  The CBA agreement can influence that’s why I had only couple of them under June 1st cut. 

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1 hour ago, Ergo Proxy said:

@athell You can only post-June 1st two players, IIRC?

Don't post-June 1st Trufant as you are trying to lessen his 2021 and 2022 dead cap hits; eat in all in 2020 and gain roughly $5M in cap space right away.

I hope the CBA is signed so the Falcons can split the cap space with June 1st cut. A new coach and GM would love to have more cap and bring in their own players who fit the vision. There is no reason for this team to write off 2020 season.

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8 hours ago, papachaz said:

I know it's all about the new HC and his OC, but wes hasn't done to bad the times he's been in a C. I know I sure am looking forward to Lindstrom getting back in. I hope he's able to get some viable snaps this year to get him ready for next year.

 

I'm still hoping we can get someone from the Mike Shannahan/Gary Kubiak tree, even Kubiak himself, even it it's just a couple years to groom someone like McDaniel to take over. 

I wonder.. would Lindstrom be better off served at C or G? I imagine now G but is it a good idea to move a mid round 1st guard and in Cap numbers if he performed at league level for both(lets hope he is above at one) which would be more cap beneficial?

 

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7 minutes ago, OrthoPTSD said:

I wonder.. would Lindstrom be better off served at C or G? I imagine now G but is it a good idea to move a mid round 1st guard and in Cap numbers if he performed at league level for both(lets hope he is above at one) which would be more cap beneficial?

 

I’d rather he be already groomed for a year to as a guy converting. I think let him solidify RG; which the OG situation has been our worst OL issue since every time Levitre would hit IR from 17-18 to missing Chris this year.

Gono is a dark horse for converting to OG, IMO. He should at minimum be a solid backup RT.

Either get a young C coming out early or a 3-4 year college starter. IF you draft an OG to convert once in the NFL? That’s trouble as a rookie.

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2 hours ago, Ergo Proxy said:

@athell You can only post-June 1st two players, IIRC?

Don't post-June 1st Trufant as you are trying to lessen his 2021 and 2022 dead cap hits; eat in all in 2020 and gain roughly $5M in cap space right away.

Yeah, you are right.  I wasn't paying attention and have three in there...

So with Tru...if you cut him outright it carries a $10.2m dead cap hit and a cap savings of $4.95m.  A post June-1 cut carries a $4.4m dead cap hit in 2020 and a $5.8m dead cap hit in 2012 and a cap savings of $10.75m.  So yea, you absorb all the dead money next year one way and clear less cap, or spread the dead cap over two years and clear up almost $6m more in cap space for next year the other way.

One gets you almost $5m in cap space next year, the other gets you over $6m...so yeah, I'd say for only $1m in savings...not worth carrying dead cap over two years.

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9 minutes ago, OrthoPTSD said:

I wonder.. would Lindstrom be better off served at C or G? I imagine now G but is it a good idea to move a mid round 1st guard and in Cap numbers if he performed at league level for both(lets hope he is above at one) which would be more cap beneficial?

 

 

1 minute ago, Ergo Proxy said:

I’d rather he be already groomed for a year to as a guy converting. I think let him solidify RG; which the OG situation has been our worst OL issue since every time Levitre would hit IR from 17-18 to missing Chris this year.

Gono is a dark horse for converting to OG, IMO. He should at minimum be a solid backup RT.

Either get a young C coming out early or a 3-4 year college starter. IF you draft an OG to convert once in the NFL? That’s trouble as a rookie.

It’s easier to draft a Center than an OG. If Lindstorm  can come back healthy has potential to be one of the better OG in the NFL. OL is probably in better shape and doesn’t need much help other than a center.

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5 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

 

It’s easier to draft a Center than an OG. If Lindstorm  can come back healthy has potential to be one of the better OG in the NFL. OL is probably in better shape and doesn’t need much help other than a center.

Certainly have to be impressed with the no hurries he produced in pre season and first game. If a home run can be hit on Mack replacement and McGary potential realized could have something.

McGary  by the way has been getting baptized.. by a lot of looks he does not get in his organization to say the least. He seems like a guy who could learn and come back really strong regardless of current staff /upper management staying

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30 minutes ago, OrthoPTSD said:

Certainly have to be impressed with the no hurries he produced in pre season and first game. If a home run can be hit on Mack replacement and McGary potential realized could have something.

McGary  by the way has been getting baptized.. by a lot of looks he does not get in his organization to say the least. He seems like a guy who could learn and come back really strong regardless of current staff /upper management staying

There are not many OT in the league who dominate from the rookie season. He is taking his lumps with some ugly games, but that is to be expected for a rookie. I hope the new HC is an Offensive guy. The line could use all the help in coaching. 

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On 10/31/2019 at 10:20 PM, falcons007 said:

I know but most of the reports are saying the NFLPA and Owners wants to get the deal done by March 2020. If they can’t then Teams will restructure and not cut. 

Idk man.... I can see it getting done before the 2020 season is over but I don't see it happening before the 2020 off season begin.

 

Shot last time a lock out had to happen.... Add in the ownerd trying to get that extra regular season game

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On 11/1/2019 at 3:14 PM, athell said:

lol @falcons007, wish I would have seen this thread before going to OTC salary cap simulator to show how easily we can get from 5 million over to 40 million under.  I did the exact same exercise and we have the exact same cuts, except I retained Rico:

Desmond Trufant - Post June 1 : $10,750,000
Alex Mack - Cut : $8,000,000
Devonta Freeman - Post June 1 : $6,500,000
Keanu Neal : $6,466,000
Allen Bailey : $4,500,000
Ty Sambrailo : Post June 1 : $4,750,000
Luke Stocker : $2,600,000
Matt Schaub : $2,000,000

Gets us from...


Year	Total Liabilities	Salary Cap      (Projected) Cap Room
2019	$183,162,267	    $189,025,982	$5,863,715
2020	$205,553,782	    $200,000,000	($5,553,782)
2021	$182,076,520	    $200,000,000	$17,923,480
2022	$150,380,598	    $200,000,000	$49,619,402
2023	$84,067,860  	    $200,000,000	$115,932,140

To...


Year	Total Liabilities	Salary Cap      (Projected) Cap Room
2019	$183,162,267	    $189,025,982	$5,863,715
2020	$159,987,782	    $200,000,000	$40,012,218
2021	$161,176,520	    $200,000,000	$38,823,480
2022	$128,030,598	    $200,000,000	$71,969,402
2023	$84,067,860	    $200,000,000	$115,932,140

The salary cap situation will only be as dire as the next regime chooses it to be.  There are some pretty obvious cuts to free up a ton of space and go after some players that can actually play the game.  This also doesn't take into account the rising cap, and any potential contract restructures for obvious candidates like Ryan and Matthews.

If anyone wants to play GM...

https://overthecap.com/calculator/atlanta-falcons/

Nice work.  

Ive said since Matthews signed that a purge was coming.  This is what it looks like.  Cutting an All Pro and 3 Pro Bowlers to create CAP space is never a good thing.  But it’s necessary.  Mack, Tru, Neal & Bailey will all be difficult to replace effectively

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