Smiler11

The Consolidated Trade, Cap space and cuts guide for 2019 and 2020

526 posts in this topic

FROM falcons007

I will leave this post here as a reference to save typing same thing in 20 other threads on 20 other players.

TL;DR: The New coaching staff will have 50 M and draft to replace 2-3 starters, decide on Hooper and get a starting DE and LB along with rotational and backups. This is far from doom and gloom with a  total rebuild. 

I will start with most unlikely players who can be cut or traded. 

Matt Ryan: 

The cash already paid from 2018-2019: 74 M.

Cap hit from 2018-2019: 33.5 M

Difference between cash paid and cap hit: 31.5 M. 

If you trade Ryan in before draft: The dead cap at minimum is 31.5 M and assuming team trading will take an additional 10 M hit on 33.5 M cap hit. 

The bottom line is Falcons will have to make more cuts just to get out of cap **** by trading Ryan. I don't think there is any team in NFL which will take a 43.5 M cap hit for Ryan in 2020 with a trade. 

I am not going to bother with details of cutting Ryan straight up. 

In 2021, the dead cap will be 29 M either in the trade or straight-up cut. Post 6/1 will split some of the money but the team will be in cap ****.

In 2022, this is a realistic year to cut with 15 M dead cap, if Ryan doesn't perform well and draft a QB. 

Julio Jones: 

If he is traded in 2019, the team will have to take at least 23 M dead cap and at worst 32 M in dead cap. The team which will trade for Julio will have a cap hit between 20 M to 29 M. Not many teams would trade first-rounders and take a huge cap hit. The team will have to let go of multiple players to just get under the cap after trading Julio.

Like Ryan, realistically the team can trade or cut Julio by taking 15 M dead cap in the year 2022. I would bet on Julio going somewhere before Ryan leaves ATL if either one of them wont finish their career here..

Debo and Grady would be hard cuts till 2022. Both of them could be trade candidates in 2021 with out too much dead cap. 

Likely Trades/Cuts: 

Freeman: 

Freeman was untradeable unless the other team was giving falcons a top 3 round pick. If Falcons traded Freeman this year, his dead cap would have been 7.5 M next year. 

The best case is to designate him as post 6/1 cut with 6.5 M cap savings next year and 3 M dead cap in both 2020 and 2021. 

Trufant: 

He was untradeable this year, Falcons would have taken 24 M dead cap in next two years. 

In 2019, if he is a post 6/1 cut, the Falcons can save 10 M in cap space with 10 M in dead money spread over 2020 and 2021. 

Alex Mack: 

From Cap perspective, he is the easiest cut in 2020, Cap savings of 8.5 M and 2.5 M dead cap. If the Falcons get an offensive mind as HC, the new coach can draft a center in the first 3 rounds and replace Mack. It may not be an easy replacement but possible with the right coach. 

Ty Sambrailo:  Easy cut with 2 M dead money and 3.75 M in cap savings. 

Keanu Neal:  He is counting 6.4 M against the cap in 2020. The new Coach may not want to keep him at that price. If he is let go, the Falcons get full cap savings. 

Luke Stocker:   Cap savings of 2.6 M and dead cap of 750K. This is no brainer cut.

Allen Bailey  Cap savings 4.5 M and dead cap 1.5 M. It could be an easy cut. 

Ricardo Allen:  4.25 dead money and 3.15 Savings, Post June 1st : 5.25 saving and 2.2 M dead money in 2020 and 2021. 

Schuab 2 M in savings..  

 

Post-June 1st cuts: Freeman and Trufant, that's savings of 16.5 M. Need to find cheaper CB and RB in FA or draft. RB is easier, but CB may need a first-round pick. 

Cutting Mack, Ty, Neal, Stocker, and Bailey will save 25.7 M. Mack is the only guy who has contributed in the last 2 years, Neal is good but hasn't played much in the last two seasons. Other players are backups and rotational players. Get a decent vet Center and SS. 

Rico: He is in middle with more dead money in 2020 and not much savings post june 1 st cut. I can see him post June cut and save another 5.25 M. 

With all the likely cuts Falcons can save 46.7 M with need to replace Starting Center, Starting CB, Starting FS and an injured starting SS in draft and FA. RB can be found later in the draft with good ZBS.

The New coaching staff will have 50 M and draft to replace 2-3 starters, decide on Hooper and get a starting DE and LB along with rotational and backups. This is far from doom and gloom with a  total rebuild.  

 

Edited  by falcons007

 

 

From Smiler11

 

Front Office

I get and understand the arguments for and against getting rid of TD and honestly I’m not attached to either approach. Ultimately those inside the organisation will have a good idea where the blame lies and if that failure lies with TD not providing the players Quinn wanted or needed for his system, then I’m sure the proof will be in the pudding. That said, in his tenure with the Falcons Dimitroff has shown an ability to build championship calibre teams under different head coaches and philosophies – winning NFL executive of the year twice over the last 10 years is not to be sniffed at. I would lean towards keeping him because he has shown he can adapt and having a GM who knows the roster – both the strengths and weaknesses but also the core players any future team should be built around, will only help a new head coach.

Outside of the GM, the front office needs streamlining as there is an element of ‘too many cooks in the kitchen’, with ex GM’s Rich McKay, Phil Emery, Ruston Webster all surrounding TD.

 

Head Coach (and offense)

I’m convinced Dan Quinn is gone. The ‘brotherhood’ & ‘fast and physical’ mantra and messages have worn off. The defensive scheme is outdated and Quinn has not shown any ability to evolve it. The players whilst vocal about their support for DQ off the field, have shown anything but on it. We need a new direction.

I’ve been very vocal about our next Head Coach being an offensive minded coach, ideally someone who will own the offensive system and even call the plays if needed. There is some logic to this approach, over a defensive guy, and it’s a trend that’s catching on around the league – I posted something on this recently over at ‘Around the NFL’ here that is a good read, but called out the key bits below:

“Even if a team favors a defensive candidate at head coach, it faces two unwanted likelihoods for the future of its offensive coordinator: Either he will fail and the team will lose, or he will succeed and another team will poach him. The first outcome is undesirable for obvious reasons. The second outcome is barely more tenable.

NFL teams are fearful of breaking up a thriving quarterback-coach relationship. Hiring an up-and-coming offensive assistant as a coordinator sounds appealing until he bolts for a head coaching job after a season or two. If your head coach already calls plays, you don’t have to worry about losing the play caller your quarterback found rapport with.

“If you have a good offensive mind, he’s going to get hired out of here in two seconds,” Bears General Manager Ryan Pace said. “Now you’re starting over on offense.”

 “If a guy can coach the quarterback and he’s calling plays, he’s going to be a hot commodity,” Joseph said. “You have to build your staff that way, knowing that if this guy is a good coach, he’s going to probably move on in two years.”

The above sounds familiar right? Not just in letting Kyle Shanahan leave, but we’ve also seen Matt LaFleur, Mike McDaniel & Mike LaFleur slip through our hands. Hindsight is a bi*ch, but I think we can start undoing some of it….

I would hire Mike McDaniel (49ers running game coordinator) as our new head coach. I appreciate it’s quite a jump for someone who hasn’t even been a coordinator, but he’s worked under Shanahan for over 10 years and it that time McDaniel has had success with a whole plethora of running backs - Alfred Morris, Steve Slaton, Matt Brieda, Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman. He’s also familiar with the Falcons hierarchy and playing staff making any transition that much easier.

 

 

Whilst McDaniel would be the primary play-caller, I would also see if we could bring over Mike LaFleur (current passing game coordinator on the 49ers) to be his OC – although I think his brother is keen to bring him to Green Bay. I’d also offer Matt Schaub, someone who has been in the same system for the past 12 years, a role on the staff – perhaps as the QB coach. Greg Knapp might also be kept on in some capacity given his experience in the scheme.

 

Defense

Firstly we need to figure out what kind of defense we want. The Seahawks cover-3 defense is clearly not working – not just here but elsewhere around the league as well. Offenses are figuring out how to beat it and defensive coaches are learning that the success of the legion of boom was as much a product of the talent Seattle had as it was a scheme thing.

An interesting case study and one we should look very closely at for our defensive rebuild, is that of the 49ers. Robert Saleh is a Pete Carroll disciple and installed the 4-3 under, cover-3 single high defense in his first year with the 49ers (2017) and it almost cost him his job. This past off-season they hired Kris Kocurek, a defensive line coach who earnt his stripes under Jim Schwartz and the 4-3 (wide 9) defensive front, and Joe Woods, the former DC and DB coach for the Broncos. They quickly rebuilt that defense to incorporate the wide 9 principles and moved away from the single high cover-3 on the backend. Below is a video that outlines some of the changes they have made:

 

The results so far are pretty good - #1 in yards given up per game (224) and #2 in points per game (11).

Robert Saleh is going to a be a hot commodity in the off-season, but the coach I’d be interested in for our defensive coordinator is Kris Kocurek. I’ve always been a fan of the wide-9 that Jim Schwartz coaches and everywhere he has coached, they’ve been able to generate pressure from the front 4. This is the scheme that made Albert Haynesworth and Ndamukong Suh $100m+ dollar free agents. It’s the defensive scheme that the Eagles recently rode to the super bowl. Kris Kocurek was apparently instrumental in the 49ers rebuild this off-season. He’s certainly been instrumental in success of the defensive line this year and should get an opportunity as a defensive coordinator somewhere next year – I hope it is here.

The only current defensive coach I hope we keep on is Jeff Ulbrich.

 

Special Teams

I don’t care all that much to be honest, I’d probably give Ben Kotwica another year to see what he can do.

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It's funny that before this year the talk was Shanahan getting fired this season, but boy they turned it around strong this year. Not sure if anyone is going to pay McDaniel to jump to HC, but he might be a good OC. I fear that Blank is going to make a big splash and do something crazy and overpay a college coach like he did in 2007.

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Well thought out post, but tbh, I'm sick of this team trying to copy other teams. I want a guy to come in that has his own vision and for him to do things his way. It might fail, but I want him to be moving the team a step ahead of where they see the league going. Not always trying to play catch up.

Related to this, I want the GM to be the one picking our HC, not AB. 

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14 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Well thought out post, but tbh, I'm sick of this team trying to copy other teams. I want a guy to come in that has his own vision and for him to do things his way. It might fail, but I want him to be moving the team a step ahead of where they see the league going. Not always trying to play catch up.

Related to this, I want the GM to be the one picking our HC, not AB. 

I get what you're saying, but there are very few truly original ideas ideas in the NFL - it's always an evolution. Kyle's system whilst rooted in what his Dad did in Denver and then with Kubiak in Houston, has been evolved and tweaked. Matt LaFleur has again tweaked the system with what he is doing in Green Bay. From what I know of McDaniel, he's an extremely intelligent offensive mind and will certainly have his own ideas and concepts he'll want to implement. Out of interest, who do you want to bring in?

 

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38 minutes ago, Jesus said:

It's funny that before this year the talk was Shanahan getting fired this season, but boy they turned it around strong this year. Not sure if anyone is going to pay McDaniel to jump to HC, but he might be a good OC. I fear that Blank is going to make a big splash and do something crazy and overpay a college coach like he did in 2007.

Hiring another college coach? Naw, I think Blank learned his lesson last time.

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Nice effort.

The only thing is....I wish people stopped nut hugging the 49ers ( not saying that you are)

But they have 2 strait losing seasons and the defense that everyone is so gaga about was actually worse than the Falcons defense last year.

 

People get too caught up on the flavor of the month.

Again to OP....great effort and really well thought out......I just think that we as fans (we are all guilty of it) tend to look at more at a snapshot rather than the whole picture

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26 minutes ago, Smiler11 said:

I get what you're saying, but there are very few truly original ideas ideas in the NFL - it's always an evolution. Kyle's system whilst rooted in what his Dad did in Denver and then with Kubiak in Houston, has been evolved and tweaked. Matt LaFleur has again tweaked the system with what he is doing in Green Bay. From what I know of McDaniel, he's an extremely intelligent offensive mind and will certainly have his own ideas and concepts he'll want to implement. Out of interest, who do you want to bring in?

Fairly put. I want Dodds at GM more than anything, none of the likely HC candidates have me wowed. The big thing that bugs me is this culture of complacency. The team gets too enamored with players. I think Dodds can eradicate that. 

At HC, I'd like an offense-minded coach, but I'm not horribly picky. I think emphasizing the run game out of unconventional formations and the pass game out of unconventional formations is important in today's NFL, and I think it's important to have flexibility in packages (both on offense and defense) to the point that you don't indicate what you're doing just with the players on the field. But again, I'm not picky as long as the coach is who Dodds wants. I like some of the guys you mentioned. Just don't want the reason we get them to be us trying to replicate what Shanny had when he was here...need to stop living in the past.

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 I like you're observations that mandate a really good OC as head coach. I would rather see Pete Carmichael in that position going forward. I'm in a quandary about TD. Not sure if he's at fault or AB's interference, but quite a few bad mistakes with contracts is really scary. I wish AB would go play with his soccer team and leave the Falcons to people who know wtf they are doing.

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16 minutes ago, falconsd56 said:

Nice effort.

The only thing is....I wish people stopped nut hugging the 49ers ( not saying that you are)

But they have 2 strait losing seasons and the defense that everyone is so gaga about was actually worse than the Falcons defense last year.

 

People get too caught up on the flavor of the month.

Again to OP....great effort and really well thought out......I just think that we as fans (we are all guilty of it) tend to look at more at a snapshot rather than the whole picture

Well it's hard to say I'm not 'nut hugging' the 49ers to be fair, or at least their coaches :lol:. Kris Kocurek wasn't with the 49ers last year and I think he's a big reason (perhaps the biggest) for their turnaround this year. In an ideal world I'd bring in Jim Schwartz as DC tomorrow and Kyle Shanahan as HC, but that's not going to happen so I tried thinking outside the box a little. The thought with McDaniel is that the scheme itself has worked here with Ryan but elsewhere around the league as well (see what the Packers are doing under LaFleur).

 

Are McDaniel and Kocurek the next Shanahan and Schwartz? ... who knows.

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I agree with a lot of what you posted.

First, We built a team around the SHanny offense, went to a super bowl and then brought in 2 coaches that couldnt run it. Dirk flat out not using the Shanny offense at all. It makes a ton of sense to bring a disciple of Shanny back in to run this offense. Id kick the heck out of the tires on Mike McDaniel.

The defense, I agree that the seattle cover 3 was talent based. Rico was never Earl Thomas. The reason 9ers turned their defense around is because they let the seattle cover 3 die and switched. I don't know that we have the front 4 to run a wide 9, but honestly Im down for anything other than what we are doing now.

It's not really "copying" the 9ers as a poster suggested. Its more of a round peg into a round hole. We ran Shanny's offense to great success lets do it again with someone who actually knows it. We ran a cover 3 just like 9ers did and they failed just like we failed so lets ditch that mug, quick.

I don't think it's a big over haul and next years draft could fix a lot. I could see 3-4 new defense starters coming out of the draft and reshaping this defense... ( as long as we don't pay hooper stupid money we will be fine)

 

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Fire Rich McKay, TD, Phil Emry, Ruston Webster, Joel Collier, and Steve Sabo and hire Ed Dodds. 6 pieces of worthless trash for 1 good NFL exec. Falcons front office's ability to scout and evaluate talent is a joke. Layers of trash hiding in their offices collecting pay checks with no results.

Image result for office space Image result for office spaceImage result for office space

 

 

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McDaniel is someone I've long thought would be a good fit as our OC.  Honestly, I might like him better as HC, because he knows the system and who can (and cannot) run it.  He's smart enough to mold the system to his players.  And given that the NFL is moving back toward more of a run balance, his specialty would be relevant for many years to come.

The defense, as I see it, is largely player dependent in any case.  You can scheme offensive production easier, so long as you have decent line play (we don't). But on defense, if you have a bad secondary, it doesn't matter if 10 guys do their job, the 11th guy is going to cost you.  The play call doesn't matter in that case.  You can call the best play and one undisciplined player will kill you.  That's sort of true on offense as well, but the offense has the advantage of the defense not knowing what they want to do. The defense is reacting, so discipline and playing your assignment is more important than the other side of the ball (not that it's unimportant in any event).  So if you need to change DCs, or even defensive schemes, that seems to me to work better than trying to throw the QB a new offensive coordinator every few years.

I like the plan.  Hire McDaniel.  Let him build his team.  Build the defense inside out and let a competent coordinator run it.

But fire TD please.

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10 minutes ago, runshoot said:

I don't think it's a big over haul and next years draft could fix a lot. I could see 3-4 new defense starters coming out of the draft and reshaping this defense... ( as long as we don't pay hooper stupid money we will be fine)

 

Regarding why I want to fire TD, this is a huge part of it.  In 2015, we were several defensive starters (in the draft) away from being great.

Why are we there again, having drafted mostly defense for the past 4 years?

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Just now, JDaveG said:

Regarding why I want to fire TD, this is a huge part of it.  In 2015, we were several defensive starters (in the draft) away from being great.

Why are we there again, having drafted mostly defense for the past 4 years?

I know its rhetorical question. But I feel like saying I don't know anyway :-)

How does TD have strong drafts, followed up by bad drafts that are so polar? Some of the Mike Smith era drafts were kindergarten level laughable. Maybe TD is all luck of the draw when drafting. He's failed on Oline (outside of Mathews) and Dline (outside of Grady) for a long time.

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2 minutes ago, runshoot said:

I know its rhetorical question. But I feel like saying I don't know anyway :-)

How does TD have strong drafts, followed up by bad drafts that are so polar? Some of the Mike Smith era drafts were kindergarten level laughable. Maybe TD is all luck of the draw when drafting. He's failed on Oline (outside of Mathews) and Dline (outside of Grady) for a long time.

I think it's his philosophy.  He drafts for need.  Sometimes need matches talent (Matt Ryan, Jake Matthews), sometimes we trade future drafts for perceived need (Julio), and sometimes we get good players in later rounds that fill needs (Grady).

But often, we're taking guys not based on who the best player on the board is, but based on "we have to have this guy at this position this year."  And so we trade up to get "our guy" instead of letting the draft fall to us.  The main time I remember doing that under TD was when we drafted Ridley in 2018.  And I'm not convinced that wasn't more Pioli than TD.  

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Didnt McDaniel take a job and then not take a job, arent the Patriots winning now because of defense, and dont the Patriots win ever year becasue their o-line talent protects brady and provides holes so they can basically get any running back or WR and be successful. McDaniel wont help with TALENT evaluation. he will fall flat on is face in Atlanta. Falcons need someone first and foremost who can EVALUATE talent, Ed Dodds from Indy, then let Ed Dodds pick the coach. Strip your front office down, clear it out and start the rebuild THERE. Better players=better team. Blank is going to have to do better than just hire a coach and fire a light weight do boy GM this go round. Let's get to the root of the cancer and cut it out. McKay, Emry, Webster, TD, Collier, Sabo ALL GONE. 

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Just now, Refried Beans said:

Didnt McDaniel take a job and then not take a job, arent the Patriots winning now because of defense, and dont the Patriots win ever year becasue their o-line talent protects brady and provides holes so they can basically get any running back or WR and be successful. McDaniel wont help with TALENT evaluation. he will fall flat on is face in Atlanta. Falcons need someone first and foremost who can EVALUATE talent, Ed Dodds from Indy, then let Ed Dodds pick the coach. Strip your front office down, clear it out and start the rebuild THERE. Better players=better team. Blank is going to have to do better than just hire a coach and fire a light weight do boy GM this go round. Let's get to the root of the cancer and cut it out. McKay, Emry, Webster, TD, Collier, Sabo ALL GONE. 

Youre thinking of McdanielS. Thats a different guy

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runshoot ok my bad I thought we were talking about Josh mcDaniels. I think Ed Dodds should pick the coach. With talent, it doesnt matter who you get as coach, see Mike McCarthy and other dead beats that won becasue of great GMs and talent evaluators behind them. Belichick is a rare breed that can do both. 

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1 minute ago, Refried Beans said:

runshoot ok my bad I thought we were talking about Josh mcDaniels. I think Ed Dodds should pick the coach. With talent, it doesnt matter who you get as coach, see Mike McCarthy and other dead beats that won becasue of great GMs and talent evaluators behind them. Belichick is a rare breed that can do both. 

Mike McDaniel.  Current running game coordinator for the Niners.  Former running game coordinator for the Falcons.

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17 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

Regarding why I want to fire TD, this is a huge part of it.  In 2015, we were several defensive starters (in the draft) away from being great.

Why are we there again, having drafted mostly defense for the past 4 years?

Ouch! Strong testimony there! I totally agree simply because TD is the common denominator in all of it. He continues to hurt this teams progression with questionable decisions.

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