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Falcons Salary Cap 2020 - How Bad is it?


g-dawg
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here it is as compiled by SportsTrac.    I tried copy/paste these numbers before and it comes out jumbled mess - so I am just going to provide the link and those interested can check it out for themselves:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/cap/2020/

2020 Falcons Salary Cap Summary:

$200 mm - Falcons Cap committments - Active Contracts

$199 mm - Projected 2020 Salary Cap per NFL team

$7 mm - Falcons Salary Cap Rollover from 2019

$204 mm - Falcons Salary Cap after adding 2019 carryover and subtracting some dead money

$1.6 mm - Salary Cap room heading into 2020 for Falcons

39 -  Players under contract

51 -  Number of players counted in salary cap (Top 51)

53 -  Number of players on active roster

Statements about 2020:

Falcons have $1.6mm in salary cap room now for 2020.

Falcons currently 12 roster players under the 51 limit

$1.6mm salary cap room divided by 12 players = $133,333/player

$500,000 = Vet Minimum with no experience

$555,000 = Vet Minimum with 1 year NFL tenure

$605,000 = Vet Minimum  with 2 years NFL tenure

$700,000 = Vet Minimum with 3 years NFL tenure

 

YES, there will be cuts and hopefully some more trades - but look at the above.    There needs to be A LOT of things done just to complete an NFL roster.   There could be 2-3 rookies that will get paid well that are drafted in Rounds 1-2.

Falcons figure now to have a Top 5 draft pick if this season holds.   Quinnen Williams was drafted #3 overall and his rookie year cap hit is $6mm.   Add that to the mix above.  Now you are up to 40 players on your roster and you are $4.5mm OVER the salary cap and need to add 11 more contracts.   If everyone else was a vet minimum with no experience - you would need to clear another $5.5mm just to field a roster.

Now throw in another high contract in Hooper - you just keep digging the hole deeper and deeper.

YES, you can go to your top players and keep extending them and bonusing them but as you do that - it makes it harder and harder to cut them(or trade them) in the future when it might be in team's best interest to do so - not really ideal to do that for players in their 30's especially.    Going to the big star and extending/bonusing just limits your options and flexibility in the future.

LOL, I listened for the last 7 years how Dimitroff was such a "cap wizard" - well it is easy to be a cap wizard when you don't have a lot of talent you have to pay - Falcons have reached that point in the team life cycle when we have paid/retained a lot of talent - and now the rest of the roster will suffer - the way it happens for all teams.   You have to draft yourself out of cap h3LL, there is no other way other than getting occasionally lucky in free agency - which doesn't happen often - at all.

My point is to try and show all of you that while the Falcons Bank maybe isn't closed - it really should be.  The bottom 1/2 to bottom 1/3 of our roster will continue to get worse - at least the veteran role players and spot starters will get worse - if you believe they are properly valued in relation to their pay.

 

 

 

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Cuts:
Devonta - 3.5m 
Bailey - 4m
Sambrailo - 3.75m
Stocker - 2.5m
Schaub - 2m
Senat - 1m
-------
16.75 cleared. That's more than enough for draft picks and some.

Then you get into the tough decisions like Mack (8m), Allen (3m), Keanu (6m). Thats another potential 17m.

If we are able to designate June 1st cuts, We could clear even more money.

Also need to figure out which of the 2 we want to keep between Carpenter or Brown. Both are bad contracts and are not going to clear much right away unless we can designate as a Post June 1st.

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1 minute ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

Good post.  I agree with everything except Hooper. He won’t break the bank and his CAP will likely exceed $10 million one time

I dunno.   You G up Hooper with our salary cap situation and you are further thinning the line on having to be even more perfect on every other move you make.    I wouldn't do it.    If I had a different team/salary cap situation, it would be an easier call because if Hoop underperformed after his contract, it wouldn't be as painful.

I just wouldn't die on that salary cap **** mountain for Hooper.   Many in TATF think Hooper is on the brink of being a next level kind of player - I don't.   I predict this will be the best season of his career w/ probably 25% better  numbers this year than for rest of his career.  Beware of the career contract year signings - they don't work out at an astonishingly high rate.

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I agree with all this.  People are saying we shouldn't trade players because the cap hit next year is bad, so there is no point.  This is not true.  We are going to take the cap hit to signing bonuses anyway.  For example, if we were to trade Julio we will take a 22.2 million dollar cap hit in 2020, but he comes off the books in '21 https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/contract-details/ 

If we could trade him for say, two first rounders, we would have to eat his cap next year, but we have one relatively cheap 1st rounder (the second would be the following year) and then in '21 we would be in the clear.  That is the best scenario in that case.

Yes, we are going to have to cut some players next year and probably let some good players go (hooper), but hopefully the FO is considering this now.

Next year is going to suck boys and girls, but hopefully we are competitive again in '21.

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2 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Cuts:
Devonta - 3.5m 
Bailey - 4m
Sambrailo - 3.75m
Stocker - 2.5m
Schaub - 2m
Senat - 1m
-------
16.75 cleared. That's more than enough for draft picks and some.

Then you get into the tough decisions like Mack (8m), Allen (3m), Keanu (6m). Thats another potential 17m.

If we are able to designate June 1st cuts, We could clear even more money.

Also need to figure out which of the 2 we want to keep between Carpenter or Brown. Both are bad contracts and are not going to clear much right away unless we can designate as a Post June 1st.

Agree with everything you said, but we are going to have to do a lot more than that.  I think we save a bit more cutting Freeman post June 1.  We are going to have to shed at least one or two of our top contracts between Ryan, Julio, Grady, Jones and Trufant.  Julio has the most value and he comes off the books in 21 if we trade him this year.  22.2 million cap hit next year, but that is what it is.  I would build around Jones and Grady, keep Ryan and trade Julio and Trufant for what ever we can get.  Next year those picks won't cost much, the cuts you mention above will pay their salaries and in 21 we will have a lot of open cap room.

I don't see anyway else we can be competitive next year.  Unless people think we will be better with this roster and it is 100% the coaching.

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8 minutes ago, schwarzenegger321 said:

Agree with everything you said, but we are going to have to do a lot more than that.  I think we save a bit more cutting Freeman post June 1.  We are going to have to shed at least one or two of our top contracts between Ryan, Julio, Grady, Jones and Trufant.  Julio has the most value and he comes off the books in 21 if we trade him this year.  22.2 million cap hit next year, but that is what it is.  I would build around Jones and Grady, keep Ryan and trade Julio and Trufant for what ever we can get.  Next year those picks won't cost much, the cuts you mention above will pay their salaries and in 21 we will have a lot of open cap room.

I don't see anyway else we can be competitive next year.  Unless people think we will be better with this roster and it is 100% the coaching.

None of those guys are going anywhere. If anyone has a chance of leaving its Trufant.

Ryan, Julio, Matthews, Grady and Deion are here for the long haul. I expect them to move some money around with some of those contracts but they won't be cut or traded.

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2 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

None of those guys are going anywhere. If anyone has a chance of leaving its Trufant.

Ryan, Julio, Matthews, Grady and Deion are here for the long haul. I expect them to move some money around with some of those contracts but they won't be cut or traded.

You are possibly correct.  In my opinion, if that happens, the Falcons are going to be terrible for the next half decade.  I personally believe about 60% of the issue is with the coaching and 40% lies on the players.  Trading any of them that have value, taking our lumps next year, and moving on with new coaches and draft picks for them to build is probably the quickest way to build again.  But that is my opinion.

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22 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Cuts:
Devonta - 3.5m 
Bailey - 4m
Sambrailo - 3.75m
Stocker - 2.5m
Schaub - 2m
Senat - 1m
-------
16.75 cleared. That's more than enough for draft picks and some.

Then you get into the tough decisions like Mack (8m), Allen (3m), Keanu (6m). Thats another potential 17m.

If we are able to designate June 1st cuts, We could clear even more money.

Also need to figure out which of the 2 we want to keep between Carpenter or Brown. Both are bad contracts and are not going to clear much right away unless we can designate as a Post June 1st.

You just took the team from 39 players to 30 players.   Now you need 21 more players to get to the top 51 contracts counted.   You have 31/51 = 60% of a team.  Add back lets say Chase Young and his $6mm cap hold.   Add back Hooper and his $10mm average and $6mm cap hold.

I don't believe Alex Mack will be cut because that only exacerbates the issues on the Offensive Line.  So let's take your figures as gospel for now except let's back out Mack.    Now we are at 31 rostered players and a total of $26mm in cap room. 

Now you have 34 players under contract and you just ate up $12mm of the $26mm you say you cleared - I'm too lazy to check your math on if we save that much.

So we have $14mm in cap room to sign 17 players that will count against the cap.   The 2nd rounds will eat up another $2.5mm in cap room.    Now you have 36 players under contract and $11.5mm in cap room while needing an additional 15 players that count against the cap to fill out the roster.

That is still very ugly - means besides the lower salaries we have on roster already made up of scrubs and rooks, the average salary of the additional 15 players will be rookies 3rd-7th rounds, UDFA's and scrub veteran free agents - average salary of those 15 players would be $766,666/player.    Rooks and UDFA's that make roster make around $500k  - no money left for any free agents at all other than the ones sitting on sideline for 3 months that just need a job.

Also, not only will Mack not be cut - but I don't see Rico being cut either.   Which makes the math above even worse.

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We need to make a few more trades.

One move that would move us out of cap purgatory for next year is trading Desmond Trufant. The secondary is already terrible so zero reason not to.

Trading him would put our cap space this year @ 17.5m. For 2020 not counting the 17.5m that would roll over it'd put us @ 1.5m under the cap. So effectively 19m under the cap from that one move alone. It can be done if we get creative.

 

Edit: 6m of that is also from the Sanu move. So 13m for the Trufant move.

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8 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

You just took the team from 39 players to 30 players.   Now you need 21 more players to get to the top 51 contracts counted.   You have 31/51 = 60% of a team.  Add back lets say Chase Young and his $6mm cap hold.   Add back Hooper and his $10mm average and $6mm cap hold.

I don't believe Alex Mack will be cut because that only exacerbates the issues on the Offensive Line.  So let's take your figures as gospel for now except let's back out Mack.    Now we are at 31 rostered players and a total of $26mm in cap room. 

Now you have 34 players under contract and you just ate up $12mm of the $26mm you say you cleared - I'm too lazy to check your math on if we save that much.

So we have $14mm in cap room to sign 17 players that will count against the cap.   The 2nd rounds will eat up another $2.5mm in cap room.    Now you have 36 players under contract and $11.5mm in cap room while needing an additional 15 players that count against the cap to fill out the roster.

That is still very ugly - means besides the lower salaries we have on roster already made up of scrubs and rooks, the average salary of the additional 15 players will be rookies 3rd-7th rounds, UDFA's and scrub veteran free agents - average salary of those 15 players would be $766,666/player.    Rooks and UDFA's that make roster make around $500k  - no money left for any free agents at all other than the ones sitting on sideline for 3 months that just need a job.

Also, not only will Mack not be cut - but I don't see Rico being cut either.   Which makes the math above even worse.

I think the bold is what you're hoping to avoid. But it's not happening. This team will suck again. They don't have enough cap space or draft picks to fix everything. The OL sucks right now with Mack. Is keeping him with a tight cap worth it? That's something to explore. Again, if they can trade him this offseason, do it. They just replaced Sanu with Blake. That's where we're headed in the short term while we sort through the cap issues. This team has them. They went into 2019 pushing their chips to the middle. They made a severe mistake keeping Vic at $13MM when they could have rolled that over to 2020 at the least. 

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1 minute ago, vel said:

I think the bold is what you're hoping to avoid. But it's not happening. This team will suck again. They don't have enough cap space or draft picks to fix everything. The OL sucks right now with Mack. Is keeping him with a tight cap worth it? That's something to explore. Again, if they can trade him this offseason, do it. They just replaced Sanu with Blake. That's where we're headed in the short term while we sort through the cap issues. This team has them. They went into 2019 pushing their chips to the middle. They made a severe mistake keeping Vic at $13MM when they could have rolled that over to 2020 at the least. 

Just hit on the draft picks. For the love of god, hit on the draft picks.

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36 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Cuts

Then you get into the tough decisions like Mack (8m), Allen (3m), Keanu (6m). Thats another potential 17m.

If we are able to designate June 1st cuts, We could clear even more money.

Also need to figure out which of the 2 we want to keep between Carpenter or Brown. Both are bad contracts and are not going to clear much right away unless we can designate as a Post June 1st.

Honestly i love Keanu. But ....I believe he's gotta go. Mack and Allen could go either way. But honestly, if we are going to free up money and looking at rebuilding I'd say all three.

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4 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Just hit on the draft picks. For the love of god, hit on the draft picks.

Falcons have to hope this years rookies develop/learn this 2nd half of season so they can be productive starters or role players next year.  Also gotta keep hitting on the picks.

I also look forward to a new shift in mentality and style w/ the new head coach and GM.    Just feel we need to be a more stout team on the lines of scrimmage.  Tired of being bullied and pushed around like the kid getting sand kicked in his face on the beach by the bully.

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1 minute ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Just hit on the draft picks. For the love of god, hit on the draft picks.

That's pretty much what they need to do in the short term while they churn the roster and move some of these bad contracts. It's going to hurt. Fans don't want it to, but when you look at the contracts and the holes in the roster, they've run this thing as far as they could. 

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Just now, g-dawg said:

Falcons have to hope this years rookies develop/learn this 2nd half of season so they can be productive starters or role players next year.  Also gotta keep hitting on the picks.

I also look forward to a new shift in mentality and style w/ the new head coach and GM.    Just feel we need to be a more stout team on the lines of scrimmage.  Tired of being bullied and pushed around like the kid getting sand kicked in his face on the beach by the bully.

The Falcons CAN survive this cap situation. Need the right coach for starters. The other piece is if this O-line puts it together or not. If Lindstrom and McGary take some big steps in year 2, that only helps the running game and Ryan play at his best. Lastly, we need a great draft. This 2020 draft is the most important draft for the Falcons in well over 10 years.

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1 minute ago, vel said:

That's pretty much what they need to do in the short term while they churn the roster and move some of these bad contracts. It's going to hurt. Fans don't want it to, but when you look at the contracts and the holes in the roster, they've run this thing as far as they could. 

New GM and Coach are going to have very tough jobs. Lindstrom and McGary badly need to become good starters next season

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When did we had a salary cap issues? We never did!!! The Falcons knew what they were doing with those extensions and contracts. They have many players that can be cut and some traded. 
 

You guys are acting like you know what the Falcons roadmap is going forward and acting like online accountants. The front office is not that stupid to jeopardize the future with a few contracts. 
 

Next year, you guys will see that Cap issue was never a big deal, rather it was a big dramatic deal on these threads and some online tracking tool. 

Edited by stingbee
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Just now, JD dirtybird21 said:

The Falcons CAN survive this cap situation. Need the right coach for starters. The other piece is if this O-line puts it together or not. If Lindstrom and McGary take some big steps in year 2, that only helps the running game and Ryan play at his best. Lastly, we need a great draft. This 2020 draft is the most important draft for the Falcons in well over 10 years.

agree w/ all of it.   Falcons offense can get right in a hurry if the O-Line can gel and be coached up.   In theory there should be enough talent to do so.

As to the 2020 draft - if we end up with the 3rd or 4th pick in the draft (assume QBs go 1,2) we need to get the best player in this draft.   If Chase Young is the next Cameron Jordan/Myles Garrett - then he needs to be a Falcon.  I really want to go passrusher if that is the best player on the board.    Falcons were looking at other positions when we missed by one spot Khalil Mack and passed over Aaron Donald.

Falcons desperately need a true star player on defense.

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

agree w/ all of it.   Falcons offense can get right in a hurry if the O-Line can gel and be coached up.   In theory there should be enough talent to do so.

As to the 2020 draft - if we end up with the 3rd or 4th pick in the draft (assume QBs go 1,2) we need to get the best player in this draft.   If Chase Young is the next Cameron Jordan/Myles Garrett - then he needs to be a Falcon.  I really want to go passrusher if that is the best player on the board.    Falcons were looking at other positions when we missed by one spot Khalil Mack and passed over Aaron Donald.

Falcons desperately need a true star player on defense.

I agree. Chase Young seems like the answer. But I was just talking about this with @vel, you gotta consider trading down with the QB prospects in this draft. If someone gives us two 1st's and two 2nd's for Justin Herbert? Man....

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1 minute ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I agree. Chase Young seems like the answer. But I was just talking about this with @vel, you gotta consider trading down with the QB prospects in this draft. If someone gives us two 1st's and two 2nd's for Justin Herbert? Man....

yeah, in theory that always sounds good.    If Chase Young has a "meh" career or whoever else you would have drafted had a "meh" or just a "good" career - then trading for the two 1sts and the two 2nds works.    If Chase Young - or someone else you would have drafted at #2 overall ends up like Mack or Donald - then you will rue the day you made the trade.   Remember, when you start talking 4 picks for 1 - the odds tell you at least 1 or the 4 picks will be a total bust and more likely 2/4 will bust.   Obviously no one ever wants to think about that when making a 4-for-1 trade and you are the team getting the 4 - but it's true.   Even if you get 4 average NFL starters for 1 superstar - not worth it.

Falcons need foundational building blocks on defense.   You have Grady and Debo and both are good players - both are good "Robin" players - we still need a "Batman" on defense in the front 4.

Personally, if I believed Chase Young was a Cam Jordan/Myles Garrett/Justin Houston type of Defensive End - I would spurn offers unless I thought I could drop one spot and still get my guy.    Now if all the marquee defensive players are gone and I could drop a few spots for a nice package, then I would be more receptive.

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