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High Pick Conundrum


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1 minute ago, stizz said:

The Bengals and Dolphins are 100 percent taking quarterbacks. So it doesn't matter if our record is better than theirs. Simply cannot lose out to the other teams vying for a top 5 pick. Maybe Washington goes reciever, but after that who knows who would want to grab Chase Young. We are in the danger zone if we slip after pick number 4.

Bengals I can see going QB. Especially if they get a new HC. I know they liked Finley a lot and may bench Dalton for him soon. If he plays well they may roll with him for another year. Dolphins are a toss up. They have Rosen on a cheap two year contract before he’s gone. They could use that time to boost their defense up with a Chase Young type. Washington would for sure go with a WR, so I think Jeudy would be gone. So that would leave us in a prime position to trade back or draft BPA which at that point is Tua. 

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11 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

Those are separate issues. The great edge rushers get theirs year after year regardless of who is lining up next to them. That's what makes them great. 

Yea BS, great Edge rushers get snuffed if the DL is as bad as ours. It's silly to want to do the same thing over and over again and think we will get different results

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6 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

I would pick Tua for the exact same reasons. My main concerns are his durability and him being left handed. The left handed aspect mainly because that would require us to rework our offensive line seeing as how his blindside is switched. This is a concern for me because our oline is already bad enough as it is. 

Being a left hander matters. Look what happened to Mac Jones, a righty, when he came in on Saturday. He almost had his head taken off several times from HIS blindside which was not Tua's.

That was in the middle of the game. If you started your season with a lefty it would be different.

Of  course I love Tua and would love to see him here rather than in Miami!

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20 minutes ago, MAD597 said:

Yea BS, great Edge rushers get snuffed if the DL is as bad as ours. It's silly to want to do the same thing over and over again and think we will get different results

Again, Grady Jarrett is among the best in the NFL at what he does. Very, very few NFL teams have two interior DL on that level. The reason Beasley and McKinley aren't producing is because they aren't good enough. If you put Myles Garrett on this team he'd have 12+ sacks. 

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10 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

Again, Grady Jarrett is among the best in the NFL at what he does. Very, very few NFL teams have two interior DL on that level. The reason Beasley and McKinley aren't producing is because they aren't good enough. If you put Myles Garrett on this team he'd have 12+ sacks. 

Again what we have done to this point is not working, we need to do something else.

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2 hours ago, Summerhill said:

Again, Grady Jarrett is among the best in the NFL at what he does. Very, very few NFL teams have two interior DL on that level. The reason Beasley and McKinley aren't producing is because they aren't good enough. If you put Myles Garrett on this team he'd have 12+ sacks. 

I can see this philosophy playing well. I think we try too hard to strengthen our weaknesses with no success. So fortifying our strengths would be a departure from the norm. Not to mention it would only serve to help out DEs get pressure. 

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3 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

Bengals I can see going QB. Especially if they get a new HC. I know they liked Finley a lot and may bench Dalton for him soon. If he plays well they may roll with him for another year. Dolphins are a toss up. They have Rosen on a cheap two year contract before he’s gone. They could use that time to boost their defense up with a Chase Young type. Washington would for sure go with a WR, so I think Jeudy would be gone. So that would leave us in a prime position to trade back or draft BPA which at that point is Tua. 

Call me crazy but I think Fitz gets the fins a few wins.  They have been more competitive.

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4 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

So you’re not a “true” BPA guy. Consensus rankings I’ve looked at have Jeudy/Tua between the number 1 through 4 best players in the draft. Which is why I used them in these scenarios. Because they are BPA and don’t fit a need  

 

I see pass rusher as our top need. Young is going to be the top DE selected in this draft so he’s off the board for the both scenarios. Okudah and Brown in play for the “need” scenario. 

No front office in the entire NFL has or ever will be 'true BPA' under your definition. Need is always a consideration and incredibly rightfully so.

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6 hours ago, MAD597 said:

We need to build the interior DL before we worry about drafting more busts at DE.

Until the trenches are fixed no young DE will come here and be effective.

Then, the starting-DEs will be McKinley and Cominsky.

Not much to spend in Free Agency.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

So this season looks to be coming to an end, halfway through the season. As of right now we are slotted for the 4th pick (this may be different depending on SOS). And while a 4th overall pick sounds great, the Falcons inevitability win a few games at the end of the season, so that probably will change. 

Let me premise this next part that I’m not solely advocating any drafting methodology. I think that  both have their merits based on mitigating circumstances. I’m leaning these questions towards the advocates of only one type of methodology. I also realize that that the draft is always a crap shoot. I’ve devised a few fun scenarios for each side to debate, but feel free to chime in regardless of where you stand. Remember this is for fun.

So now for my hypothetical scenarios for each group: 

BPA:

The top pass rushing prospect is off the board.

1) Consensus rankings have Jerry Jeudy as the BPA at our pick. Do we select him?

2) Consensus rankings have Tua Tagovailoa as the BPA at our pick. Do we select him?
 

Need:

The top prospect at positions of need are off the board. Remaining top tier prospects are at skill positions. 
 

1) If the drop off in talent is considerable at positions of need? Do we select the skill positions?

2) What level of talent disparity are you willingly to trade off for a need?

If somehow Tua is available I would definitely take him.  He's a Russell Wilson type.  He could sit for a year, **** maybe two under Ryan and learn.  How many years did Aaron Rodgers sit behind Favre?  It would be too hard to pass up in my opinion.  That said, I really don't think he'll be available.

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Just now, Mescalito said:

If somehow Tua is available I would definitely take him.  He's a Russell Wilson type.  He could sit for a year, **** maybe two under Ryan and learn.  How many years did Aaron Rodgers sit behind Favre?  It would be too hard to pass up in my opinion.  That said, I really don't think he'll be available.

Im a huge Ryan fan and the thought intrigues me. Could sit 3 sasons and learn behind Ryan. I know QB2 isnt the biggest need but i gotta think Shaub will be gone so it is a need. Also when we NEED a qb chances are we.wont be drafting top 3-5.

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5 hours ago, stizz said:

The Bengals and Dolphins are 100 percent taking quarterbacks. So it doesn't matter if our record is better than theirs. Simply cannot lose out to the other teams vying for a top 5 pick. Maybe Washington goes reciever, but after that who knows who would want to grab Chase Young. We are in the danger zone if we slip after pick number 4.

Washington will probably go o-line.

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6 hours ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

Bengals I can see going QB. Especially if they get a new HC. I know they liked Finley a lot and may bench Dalton for him soon. If he plays well they may roll with him for another year. Dolphins are a toss up. They have Rosen on a cheap two year contract before he’s gone. They could use that time to boost their defense up with a Chase Young type. Washington would for sure go with a WR, so I think Jeudy would be gone. So that would leave us in a prime position to trade back or draft BPA which at that point is Tua. 

There is no way the Dolphins pass on Tua if he's there. 

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2 hours ago, stizz said:

There is no way the Dolphins pass on Tua if he's there. 

I mean, they passed on Ryan.
It’s 50/50. Flores is relatively green and comes from the Belichick coaching tree. So I would imagine that he wants defense first. Not to mention they aren’t in a “win now” mode. They are in their rebuilding phase. 

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BPA in reality isn't "Jerry Jeudy is our highest ranked player therefore we must select him" at #4. Typically teams split each round into tiers, and value players within those tiers. As an example they may have a top 10 grade on a number of prospects and anyone of those could be considered BPA.

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