High Pick Conundrum

[Sidecar Falcon 8,436]

So this season looks to be coming to an end, halfway through the season. As of right now we are slotted for the 4th pick (this may be different depending on SOS). And while a 4th overall pick sounds great, the Falcons inevitability win a few games at the end of the season, so that probably will change. 

Let me premise this next part that I’m not solely advocating any drafting methodology. I think that  both have their merits based on mitigating circumstances. I’m leaning these questions towards the advocates of only one type of methodology. I also realize that that the draft is always a crap shoot. I’ve devised a few fun scenarios for each side to debate, but feel free to chime in regardless of where you stand. Remember this is for fun.

So now for my hypothetical scenarios for each group: 

BPA:

The top pass rushing prospect is off the board.

1) Consensus rankings have Jerry Jeudy as the BPA at our pick. Do we select him?

2) Consensus rankings have Tua Tagovailoa as the BPA at our pick. Do we select him?
 

Need:

The top prospect at positions of need are off the board. Remaining top tier prospects are at skill positions. 
 

1) If the drop off in talent is considerable at positions of need? Do we select the skill positions?

2) What level of talent disparity are you willingly to trade off for a need?

[Doctor Kildare 2,184]

The conflict between best player and need may be less for the Falcons because the Falcons need everything.

[WhenFalconsWin 27,651]

If we keep this regime we'll screw up the pick.

[MAD597 7,498]

We need to build the interior DL before we worry about drafting more busts at DE.

Until the trenches are fixed no young DE will come here and be effective.

[wartownfalcon 2,246]

27 minutes ago, Doctor Kildare said:

The conflict between best player and need may be less for the Falcons because the Falcons need everything except QB and WR

Fixed 

[DogIsYourName 1,069]

29 minutes ago, Doctor Kildare said:

The conflict between best player and need may be less for the Falcons because the Falcons need everything.

End thread...

[JDaveG 45,097]

bpa at a position of need.

No to Tua.  Probably no to Jeudy.

But yes to o-line, CB, LB, DE, DT, RB, TE, S.............you get the idea.  Pretty much everything but QB and WR, because they aren't needs, and P or K, because you don't draft them that high.

[vel 32,366]

If we're picking top five, it's Chase Young or Derrick Brown. If both are gone, trade down if you can or take Grant Delpit. 

[Sidecar Falcon 8,436]

16 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

bpa at a position of need.

No to Tua.  Probably no to Jeudy.

But yes to o-line, CB, LB, DE, DT, RB, TE, S.............you get the idea.  Pretty much everything but QB and WR, because they aren't needs, and P or K, because you don't draft them that high.

Thank you for being the only one that read the original post. LOL

[thanat0s 6,931]

I'm  a BPA guy all the way,  but that carries the caveat that QBs don't factor in the decision making unless you need one. Thanks to our  absurd contract given to Julio, obviously JJ would be a stupid investment, and I'm not convinced at all that he's  the 4th best player in the next draft. 

When one considers that 2 QBs and perhaps Andrew Thomas will likely be gone prior to our pick, we will be picking from a group of BPAs (and needs tbh)  that include: Jeff Okudah, CB, Chase Young, DE, and/or Derrick Brown, DT. Any of them can easily be considered a top five talent, and as a bonus, they suit serious need positions. 

So, I guess my picks in both scenarios is the same: the remaining player between Okudah and Young. If we end up trading back a couple slots, then Brown enters the conversation. 

Was that convoluted enough? 

[Geaux_Falcons 1,236]

I'm a BPA kind of guy, but I look at needs to make the choice between BPA.

Upcoming draft features a DT & DE worth drafting top 5 and makes a case for going #1. We could use both. Which one is the bigger need in this case?. I would say Chase young, as we need an impact guy coming off the edge. We have Grady already. Now some will say we need 2 guys on the interior, and a guy like Brown gives us possibly the best interior in the game.

I think both simply go hand in hand.

[Sidecar Falcon 8,436]

8 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

I'm  a BPA guy all the way,  but that carries the caveat that QBs don't factor in the decision making unless you need one. Thanks to our  absurd contract given to Julio, obviously JJ would be a stupid investment, and I'm not convinced at all that he's  the 4th best player in the next draft. 

When one considers that 2 QBs and perhaps Andrew Thomas will likely be gone prior to our pick, we will be picking from a group of BPAs (and needs tbh)  that include: Jeff Okudah, CB, Chase Young, DE, and/or Derrick Brown, DT. Any of them can easily be considered a top five talent, and as a bonus, they suit serious need positions. 

So, I guess my picks in both scenarios is the same: the remaining player between Okudah and Young. If we end up trading back a couple slots, then Brown enters the conversation. 

Was that convoluted enough? 

So you’re not a “true” BPA guy. Consensus rankings I’ve looked at have Jeudy/Tua between the number 1 through 4 best players in the draft. Which is why I used them in these scenarios. Because they are BPA and don’t fit a need  

 

I see pass rusher as our top need. Young is going to be the top DE selected in this draft so he’s off the board for the both scenarios. Okudah and Brown in play for the “need” scenario. 

[thanat0s 6,931]

7 minutes ago, Sidecar Falcon said:

So you’re not a “true” BPA guy. Consensus rankings I’ve looked at have Jeudy/Tua between the number 1 through 4 best players in the draft. Which is why I used them in these scenarios. Because they are BPA and don’t fit a need  

 

I see pass rusher as our top need. Young is going to be the top DE selected in this draft so he’s off the board for the both scenarios. Okudah and Brown in play for the “need” scenario. 

Well, if one is 99% BPA, then it's splitting hairs to say they aren't 'true BPA'. I'd wager absolutely no one who considers themselves BPA, whether that's we fans, or NFL front office personnel, includes QBs in that scenario. If I have Pat Mahommes, I'd be the world's biggest imbecile to waste a top five pick on a QB, whereas, even if I had a great D line, I'd still have no problem drafting Chase Young to add to that mix. 

Also, I don't think Okudah, Young or Brown can be classified as need only. They are every bit as legitimate as BPA players as need players. That's the duality of drafting in the top five/ten. Generally, teams  can draft BPA and it still fits need, since those teams  generally have many needs. 

[octoslash 18,702]

If I had to pick five major needs....I've come around to believe what this team needs is this, in order:

1. A bona fide pass rush specialist. 

2. One more very good offensive guard...or depending on how Matthews ends up...a left tackle. 

3. A seriously talented young running back.  Freeman is done and I don't think Ito is good enough to do what we need in the running game, ie, 4+ ypc. We need a reason for opposing defenses to respect our run game and right now we have nothing.  

4. A linebacker that can consistently do his job.  Debo is alone out there and Campbell and the others just aren't that good. 

5. Any and every defensive back we can get our hands on.  

---

Now, I don't follow college or draft potentialities close enough to know how realistic our chances are of fulfilling the above, so maybe some of you can tell me if I'm as stupid as I suspect I am. 

Anyways, that's how I see it.   

[Summerhill 1,893]

1 hour ago, MAD597 said:

We need to build the interior DL before we worry about drafting more busts at DE.

Falcons have a top 5-10 pass rushing DT in Jarrett and pretty good rotational players in Davison and Bailey. The Falcons rush defense has been good except they see so many rushing attempts from being down the entire game. 

1 hour ago, MAD597 said:

Until the trenches are fixed no young DE will come here and be effective.

Good DE's get sacks no matter who is at DT. 

[MAD597 7,498]

7 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

Falcons have a top 5-10 pass rushing DT in Jarrett and pretty good rotational players in Davison and Bailey. The Falcons rush defense has been good except they see so many rushing attempts from being down the entire game. 

Good DE's get sacks no matter who is at DT. 

No they don't, and we have shown the fact we can't pick them even if they did. Grady can't do it all by himself and signing scraps around him has shown to not work.

We aren't going to fix things by doing the same thing we have done over and over again. Continuing to waste early rounds on Edge Rushers while neglecting the interior DL isn't going to fix our issues on defense.

Look at this team and how bad the defense is, whatever we have done in the past to get to this point we pretty much need to do the opposite.

[A-TowN.- 5,600]

BPA at position of need. DT, DE, LB, S, CB. This is a deep front 7 class so we could trade back if Young isn’t there. If not I’d be okay with staying put and getting Derrick Brown or Isaiah Simmons.

[Bobby.Digital 4,178]

BPA outside of WR. 

I'm taking Tua if hes there. I think hes a franchise QB, gives me Russel Wilson vibes. Lock down the most important position in football for the next 12 years at least. 

Matt is 35 and this team is at least 2 years away from being a contender imo. Trade him and eat his cap hit next season (going to be tough) or let Tua sit for a year and trade Matt the year after. 

[shock 2,344]

We’re not taking a QB or a WR. It’ll be DE or DT for us with our first pick. Maybe CB if the top guy is on the board. But we need pass rush more than anything. 

[Osiruz 10,079]

BPA allday, to me BPA is chase young and Swift. If Tua is available obviously you take him. No to any first round DT unless they are the next Aaron Donald. No thanks on Derrick Brown absolutely no. 

[Halcon-1 2,675]

Yea, this is highly presumptive. There is no guarantee Jerry or Tua declares for the NFL draft. They are eligible to remain another year or two. But to play along, I’d take Espenesa.

Edited October 22, 2019 by Halcon-1

[Sidecar Falcon 8,436]

21 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

Well, if one is 99% BPA, then it's splitting hairs to say they aren't 'true BPA'. I'd wager absolutely no one who considers themselves BPA, whether that's we fans, or NFL front office personnel, includes QBs in that scenario. If I have Pat Mahommes, I'd be the world's biggest imbecile to waste a top five pick on a QB, whereas, even if I had a great D line, I'd still have no problem drafting Chase Young to add to that mix. 

Also, I don't think Okudah, Young or Brown can be classified as need only. They are every bit as legitimate as BPA players as need players. That's the duality of drafting in the top five/ten. Generally, teams  can draft BPA and it still fits need, since those teams  generally have many needs. 

Ok cool. That’s one of the things I was hoping to hit at with this thread. That everyone here is nuanced, save for a few select people. There is a small contingent that would draft a Trevor Lawrence with a Patrick Mahommes on the roster. 
 

Spot on examination about the top picks. There was another thread where people were saying that Matthews was a “needs” pick, when he was the best OL in the draft. People seem to miss the fact that in the first 10 picks you’re dealing with the best of the best. So even a “need” based picks will also be the BPA for that position. 

[FentayeJones 23,815]

This has primarily been a needs based drafting team for a long time. They need to get away from that and start drafting the best football players regardless of position (within reason) and stop chasing positions and trying to plug holes. Plug holes with free agents.

[Summerhill 1,893]

15 minutes ago, MAD597 said:

No they don't, and we have shown the fact we can't pick them even if they did.

Those are separate issues. The great edge rushers get theirs year after year regardless of who is lining up next to them. That's what makes them great. 

[BamaBirdLady 1,097]

4 minutes ago, Halcon-1 said:

Yea, this is highly presumptive. There is no guarantee Jerry or Tua declares for the NFL draft. They are eligible to remain another year or two. 

They are gone after this year. Saban has always told his guys, if you are projected to be a first round pick, then you need to go.

Both these guys are first round picks along with Henry Ruggs.