g-dawg

Next Move - Trade Hooper for 3rd rounder

270 posts in this topic

11 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

I don't mind arguing the 2nd or 3rd - that's totally acceptable - I would rather have the 2nd and have said this multiple times after the original opening post.

Again, Falcons made their beds on who the core players would be - Deion Jones was the last player to get through the door.    Matt, Julio, Jake, Grady and Debo - those are the 5 that got paid - we have some guys with one foot out the door that are getting paid - Freeman, Trufant & Mack- but even if they are doesn't help us that much.    Freeman will most definitely be gone.  Mack will probably have to stay due to how putrid the rest of the Offensive Line is.    I believe Falcons would like to deal Trufant if they could but looking at his cap figures - it would cost us money against the cap to trade or cut him in 2019 - looks like after the new league year starts he could be cut/traded.

Falcons only have 39 players under contract for next season right now - roughly 73% of what you need for a full roster.   Right now, per Sportstrac, the Falcons are $4mm over the cap with their 39 players.

So before you start talking about cutting players to pay Hoop - please note that when you cut other players you have LESS than 39 players on the roster - and you need  53 under contract for a full roster in 2020.    Projected Vet Minimum salary for players w/ 3yrs or less is $735,000.

$735,000  x  14 = $10,290,000

Granted, some of those spots will be taken by drafted rookies and UDCFA's which could be less but the point is still the same.    Falcons are in a whole of approximately $10-15mm going into 2020 and short over 25% of a roster.     

And that is perfectly fine. Is cutting Ty Sambrailo really that hard of a move to recover from? Schaub? Stocker? A big deal is being made over dead weight bodies being moved off the roster. This is a roster that needs to be completely rebuilt. Yes, next year is going to be ugly too. Get it over with. 

Cut the dead weight. I agree the core is Matt, Julio, Jake, Grady, and Debo. Hooper is apart of that as well. Like you said, Freeman, Mack, and Tru can be moved. We can live with Ito, Hill, and Ollison over Free for a year with better blocking. We can live with the $8MM in cap space without Mack, given the OL is still trash with him right now. We can definitely live with rebuilding the defense without Tru if they can trade him for a top 100 pick. I'll gladly eat that dead cap for one year to open up the space in the future. 

This isn't a 1 year rebuild. Yes, they have some ugly contracts that are going to restrict them from filling out a complete roster in 2020. I've already accepted that as a foregone. I'm looking at 2021 and beyond. 

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Hoop was the first player in one of my real time drafts that Dimi actually drafted. I think he's very good and a 3rd down chain mover. With that said, his blocking is atrocious. He is gonna get Ryan or Free killed. In light of that and our upcoming cap challenges, I wouldn't mind moving on. I think Graham may be just as good as a receiver and maybe a better blocker.

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On 10/22/2019 at 8:23 AM, g-dawg said:

I know all the man-love for Austin Hooper in TATF but trading him is the smart move.
 

Hoop is good - not great.  He’s not a vertical threat and not some freakish end zone weapon.

Hoop will likely command $9-10mm/yr in open market where the top guys that hit UFA are overpaid.

Falcons already have potential replacement on roster in Jaden Graham just like Russell Gage is replacement for Sanu.

This move paired with Sanu trade give new GM and HC the opportunity to reshape this roster and free up cap space.  If some team is desperate and wants to franchise and re/sign him - maybe Falcons get lucky and garner 2nd rounder in return.

There’s nothing ‘smart’ about doing that. 

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18 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Nothing ‘smart’ about doing that. 

check out this thread.    Everyone needs to understand the entire salary cap situation before saying what is smart and what isn't.

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Just now, g-dawg said:

check out this thread.    Everyone needs to understand the entire salary cap situation before saying what is smart and what isn't.

It's like, in your mind, you think you're the only one that understands the salary cap.

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1 minute ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

It's like, in your mind, you think you're the only one that understands the salary cap.

I understand trade-offs and understand it better than most.

I won’t be crying if we re-sign Hoop - we just lose 2-3 more mid-tier guys for rook minimum type guys - is that a big deal?  Really hard to say or prove but with all the contracts we could be in position of just starting pure trash on the field - of course we are seeing a lot of trash now as well. LOL

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3 hours ago, g-dawg said:

check out this thread.    Everyone needs to understand the entire salary cap situation before saying what is smart and what isn't.

Meh, I understand it just fine, better than 99.99% of the peeps in here. 
 

where we disagree is the talent level of where team is at. You believe the cubbard is bare and we have to go full rebuild mode, I don’t.
 

I‘ve believed long before this season Quinn was this team’s biggest problem. This season proved me right. I could see it in scheme/game planning, I could see it in inability to make mid-game adjustments, and the obvious (to me) Quinn as DC getting completely outcoached by opposing OC’s. But most importantly, you can see it in player’s complete lack of basic fundamentals in blocking, tackling, and where to be in different situations. Which all comes back to coaching. 
 

Coaching matters. Bring in a good coaching staff who makes a few tweaks on offense and a opportunity for a great defensive draft and this team is back to being a playoff team. I firmly believe that.
 

If young coach like Riley comes in, yes you blow it all up and go full rebuild including at QB. But if keeping Matt/Julio, it’s foolish to blow it all up IMO. 

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2 hours ago, Drunken Minotaur Zebra said:

Usually we agree g-dawg but I'm gonna have to give this one a nah

Crazy talk. If you’re going to get rid of all Ryan’s weapons, you may as well get rid of Ryan. 

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35 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Crazy talk. If you’re going to get rid of all Ryan’s weapons, you may as well get rid of Ryan. 

are we getting rid of Julio and Calvin?    wow, you go away from this board for an hour and look what can happen.

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14 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

are we getting rid of Julio and Calvin?    wow, you go away from this board for an hour and look what can happen.

If truly blowing it up you should get rid of Julio and ryan.

of course, we’re not getting rid of any of them. Which was the point. 

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3 hours ago, Drunken Minotaur Zebra said:

Usually we agree g-dawg but I'm gonna have to give this one a nah

if we re-sign Austin Hooper to a 5yr $45mm deal with $27mm guaranteed - I want all hear to state what baseline average season that Falcons would need to justify paying him that money.   Calling you all out to give me your numbers now.

@Ergo Proxy

@Vandy

@FalconFanSince1969

DMZ, etc.

 

WHAT I EXPECT:  Here is what I expect as an "average" season for Hooper for say 2020-2024

70 receptions for 700yds and 6 TDs........if his averages over the next 5 years equate to what I have there - that makes  him a Top 5 tight end but it doesn't make him an elite TE and it certainly doesn't make him a weapon.

If I'm gonna pay a TE more than $5-6mm per year - I need him to be an F-ng animal.

WHAT WOULD JUSTIFY:  86 receptions for 950yds and 8 TDs.......not interested in paying top of the market salary for a Tight End that is just "pretty good, not great".

Falcons already have huge monies invested in the passing game in Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley(1st rd pick).  I believe once the Falcons get their offensive line protection corrected or somewhat corrected, you will see Hooper's numbers go down somewhat - as they should.    A fully functioning Falcons offense that is explosive won't have the Tight End as the leading receiver.

Hooper has improved the last two years but it is more him perfecting his craft and Matt gaining confidence in him than some major untapped potential that will take him to higher heights.    I know everyone is craving for a Falcons "feel good" story in this putrid 2019 season and Hooper is the story - I just believe it more a mirage than some stock that is about to rocket up to new levels and stay there.   If Falcons give Hooper a big deal this offseason - I believe they will be "buying high".     Having said that, if we do it, would rather be wrong and get "I told you so's" from you guys than be right.

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22 minutes ago, Vandy said:

If truly blowing it up you should get rid of Julio and ryan.

of course, we’re not getting rid of any of them. Which was the point. 

yeah but that's not what you said.

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Too tired to bother. I don’t need to be right on this. I’ve said my opinion on Austin, TE, and reallocating resources.

If I knew how to do contracts and all the details, I’d be a GM.

Let the GMs handle it. I’m more concerned with creating space than what it would take to retain Austin.

Again, not my fight. Just said my piece...

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24 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

if we re-sign Austin Hooper to a 5yr $45mm deal with $27mm guaranteed - I want all hear to state what baseline average season that Falcons would need to justify paying him that money.   Calling you all out to give me your numbers now.

@Ergo Proxy

@Vandy

@FalconFanSince1969

DMZ, etc.

 

WHAT I EXPECT:  Here is what I expect as an "average" season for Hooper for say 2020-2024

70 receptions for 700yds and 6 TDs........if his averages over the next 5 years equate to what I have there - that makes  him a Top 5 tight end but it doesn't make him an elite TE and it certainly doesn't make him a weapon.

If I'm gonna pay a TE more than $5-6mm per year - I need him to be an F-ng animal.

WHAT WOULD JUSTIFY:  86 receptions for 950yds and 8 TDs.......not interested in paying top of the market salary for a Tight End that is just "pretty good, not great".

Falcons already have huge monies invested in the passing game in Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley(1st rd pick).  I believe once the Falcons get their offensive line protection corrected or somewhat corrected, you will see Hooper's numbers go down somewhat - as they should.    A fully functioning Falcons offense that is explosive won't have the Tight End as the leading receiver.

Hooper has improved the last two years but it is more him perfecting his craft and Matt gaining confidence in him than some major untapped potential that will take him to higher heights.    I know everyone is craving for a Falcons "feel good" story in this putrid 2019 season and Hooper is the story - I just believe it more a mirage than some stock that is about to rocket up to new levels and stay there.   If Falcons give Hooper a big deal this offseason - I believe they will be "buying high".     Having said that, if we do it, would rather be wrong and get "I told you so's" from you guys than be right.

Just wondering G where this Hooper infatuation is coming from? Were you one of the ones claiming he stunk 2 years ago when he dropped some passes? I just don't get why you seem eager to trade away one of our assets before he even reaches his prime, a young improving player who just keeps getting better and better. . 

Hooper's on pace for 100/1200/9 TDs this year and we just traded away one of our starting WRers. So it's not unreasonable to think he would hit your "JUSTIFIED" numbers. 

Assuming TD keeps his job, he's always surprised you, me, and everyone else in here in finding ways to locked up these good young players like Debo, Jarrett et al. And this bad season notwithstanding, over the long haul most of these lockdowns have worked out than not. 

 

Bottom line....I think you and a few others in here are overreacting to a bad season. Which again, I think the bigger issue for that is coaching. 

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25 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

yeah but that's not what you said.

Don't play dumb my friend, I know you're smarter than that. We both know what I meant by that. 

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7 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Just wondering G where this Hooper infatuation is coming from? Were you one of the ones claiming he stunk 2 years ago when he dropped some passes? I just don't get why you seem eager to trade away one of our assets before he even reaches his prime, a young improving player who just keeps getting better. . 

Hooper's on pace for 100/1200/9 TDs this year and we just traded away one of our starting WRers. So it's not unreasonable to think he would hit your "JUSTIFIED" numbers. 

Assuming TD keeps his job, he's always surprised you, me, and everyone else in here in finding ways to locked up these good young players like Debo, Jarrett et al. 

No I never have hated on Austin Hooper.

Infatuation? It’s more of a confluence of several things

1) Falcons terrible season

2) Salary Cap H@LL

3) Need for new HC and likely GM

4) Need for a new strategy with personnel going forward 

5) What I believe to be an anomaly season for Hooper at the perfect time for himself about to hit free agency and when Falcons might not have salary cap room to take a “wait/see” approach by Franching him.

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3 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

No I never have hated on Austin Hooper.

Infatuation? It’s more of a confluence of several things

1) Falcons terrible season

2) Salary Cap H@LL

3) Need for new HC and likely GM

4) Need for a new strategy with personnel going forward 

5) What I believe to be an anomaly season for Hooper at the perfect time for himself about to hit free agency and when Falcons might not have salary cap room to take a “wait/see” approach by Franching him.

That's why I asked the question....he's 24 and getting better and better???

So, why do you think this year is an anomaly? He's worked hard and shown steady progress each season in the league? 

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14 minutes ago, Vandy said:

That's why I asked the question....he's 24 and getting better and better???

So, why do you think this year is an anomaly? He's worked hard and shown steady progress each season in the league? 

For one, everything about this season on offense is off.   Matt Ryan getting hit at a historic rate.   Ball has to come out fast.   Shorter routes become preferred routes.   Tight End a safety valve getting used more than normal.

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