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Tmodel66

Falcons' Fans Fallacies

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There are several fallacies we see posters on this board spout regularly.  The more this season plays out, it is becoming obvious that we have a lot of problems, and it is going to take some time to turn this around. 

Fallacy #1: We have one of the most talented rosters in the league.  We do have a talented roster, but every team in the NFL has talented players.  It doesn't feel like teams see us on the schedule and worry about how they are going to score on us or keep us from scoring.  In fact, I think most teams circle our names as a likely win.  At some point, talent rules.  Bottom line, if we were that much more talented than the rest of the league, we would have a better record.

Fallacy #2:  This team went to the Super Bowl, and we can do it again if only... THIS TEAM is 1-6.  Even if we could go back in time with 2016 personnel, Shanahan, etc., we aren't guaranteed anything in the (not for long) NFL.  If you aren't improving, you are going backwards in this league because our competition is getting better.  We are not as good as we were in 2016 any area of our team - offense, defense or special teams.  

Fallacy #3:  If we just fix ________________, we are going to the Super Bowl.  OK, most people know we aren't going to the Super Bowl this year, but at various points in the off-season, posters would tell us if we just improved our O-Line, improved our pass rush, got healthy, learned a new scheme, etc., we were good to go.  The truth is, we have some glaring weaknesses at every level in our team (with the possible exception of WRs and TEs).  We need better coaching and better personnel, and we need the leaders of our team to be better, too.

Fallacy #4:  Our GM isn't responsible for picking the players, so he gets a pass.  Defenders of Dimitroff will tell you he had his drafting privileges taken away, so he is no longer accountable for the draft.  If this is true, why are you defending him in the first place??  More importantly though, it is unreasonable to think TD and his scouting department don't have some of the responsibility for who we draft, who we extend, who we cut and the team building philosophy.  

Fallacy #5:  Salary cap doesn't matter.  Whether it is "the Brotherhood", too much faith in our own roster or Quinn trying to hold on to players he knows to make a run to save his job (see Vic Beasley), we have been unwilling to let players walk, and we pay for past performance.  You just can't "clear up $30-40 million with a few moves from your roster" because we have dead cap associated with several of our players.  TD fans, if this is his only area of responsibility, why are we in such a bad spot? 

Fallacy #6:  This is all on the coach...or the GM...or a couple of players...or the owner.  The truth is, the organization needs to improve top to bottom, and Blank bears some responsibility, too.  Publicly announcing that players are "Falcons for Life" has hurt us at the negotiating table.  We need to look at our team or coaches and our front office because we have weaknesses at many levels, and it is going to take new leadership, good decisions and time to get us back on the right track.

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Tmodel66 said:

Fallacy #2:  This team went to the Super Bowl, and we can do it again if only... THIS TEAM is 1-6.  Even if we could go back in time with 2016 personnel, Shanahan, etc., we aren't guaranteed anything in the (not for long) NFL.  If you aren't improving, you are going backwards in this league because our competition is getting better.  We are not as good as we were in 2016 any area of our team - offense, defense or special teams.  

Fallacy #3:  If we just fix ________________, we are going to the Super Bowl.  OK, most people know we aren't going to the Super Bowl this year, but at various points in the off-season, posters would tell us if we just improved our O-Line, improved our pass rush, got healthy, learned a new scheme, etc., we were good to go.  The truth is, we have some glaring weaknesses at every level in our team (with the possible exception of WRs and TEs).  We need better coaching and better personnel, and we need the leaders of our team to be better, too.

This has been part of the big issue. The entire mentality of the team shifted post-SB. It was always a "we were so close let's just run it back". They ignored the rest of the league making moves to get to the SB as well. It became an obsession over 2016 and getting back. Just doing the same things. In a league that moves as fast as lightning, that's how you look up with "the same roster" and be 1-6 with it. 

They ignored how terrible the defense has been since DQ got here. They saw they were able to get to the SB with them and assumed it was be good enough. They falsely believed this was a top ten defense when it wasn't and operated as such by adding three more first round picks to the offense in the following two drafts. 

They lost focus. Again. Just like they did after getting throttled by GB in 2010 and after blowing the NFCCG in 2012. 

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1 minute ago, vel said:

This has been part of the big issue. The entire mentality of the team shifted post-SB. It was always a "we were so close let's just run it back". They ignored the rest of the league making moves to get to the SB as well. It became an obsession over 2016 and getting back. Just doing the same things. In a league that moves as fast as lightning, that's how you look up with "the same roster" and be 1-6 with it. 

They ignored how terrible the defense has been since DQ got here. They saw they were able to get to the SB with them and assumed it was be good enough. They falsely believed this was a top ten defense when it wasn't and operated as such by adding three more first round picks to the offense in the following two drafts. 

They lost focus. Again. Just like they did after getting throttled by GB in 2010 and after blowing the NFCCG in 2012. 

They bought into their own hype.

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3 minutes ago, vel said:

This has been part of the big issue. The entire mentality of the team shifted post-SB. It was always a "we were so close let's just run it back". They ignored the rest of the league making moves to get to the SB as well. It became an obsession over 2016 and getting back. Just doing the same things. In a league that moves as fast as lightning, that's how you look up with "the same roster" and be 1-6 with it. 

They ignored how terrible the defense has been since DQ got here. They saw they were able to get to the SB with them and assumed it was be good enough. They falsely believed this was a top ten defense when it wasn't and operated as such by adding three more first round picks to the offense in the following two drafts. 

They lost focus. Again. Just like they did after getting throttled by GB in 2010 and after blowing the NFCCG in 2012. 

I remember when Dan Reeves drafted Reggie Kelly in the 2nd round after going to the SB in 2018.  When asked why he took a blocking TE early, he said something like:  "He was the missing piece we needed to win that Super Bowl."  Since we don't have a time machine, that kind of thinking is deadly.

Keeping the status quo in the NFL is going backwards.  I'm sorry we had so many injuries last year, but injuries happen in the NFL and thinking that we were going to be good even if those players played at their 2017 level was a losing approach. 

 

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1 minute ago, Tmodel66 said:

I remember when Dan Reeves drafted Reggie Kelly in the 2nd round after going to the SB in 2018.  When asked why he took a blocking TE early, he said something like:  "He was the missing piece we needed to win that Super Bowl."  Since we don't have a time machine, that kind of thinking is deadly.

Keeping the status quo in the NFL is going backwards.  I'm sorry we had so many injuries last year, but injuries happen in the NFL and thinking that we were going to be good even if those players played at their 2017 level was a losing approach. 

 

Yep. When you start looking in the rear view to make decisions going forward, you've lost. That 2016 offense was the best in the league in 2016 but has since been eclipsed by the Chiefs in 2018 and three teams that year put up 500 points, compared to only one in 2016. The Falcons are still trying to play in 2016 when everybody else has moved onto 2019. That's how you end up keeping a guy like Vic, hoping you can recreate 2016 instead of accepting the present situation as fact. 

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16 minutes ago, vel said:

This has been part of the big issue. The entire mentality of the team shifted post-SB. It was always a "we were so close let's just run it back". They ignored the rest of the league making moves to get to the SB as well. It became an obsession over 2016 and getting back. Just doing the same things. In a league that moves as fast as lightning, that's how you look up with "the same roster" and be 1-6 with it. 

They ignored how terrible the defense has been since DQ got here. They saw they were able to get to the SB with them and assumed it was be good enough. They falsely believed this was a top ten defense when it wasn't and operated as such by adding three more first round picks to the offense in the following two drafts. 

They lost focus. Again. Just like they did after getting throttled by GB in 2010 and after blowing the NFCCG in 2012. 

Culture. 

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2 minutes ago, athell said:

Yup.  And we aren't even keeping the status quo, we are going backwards without even keeping the status quo!

We've created some sort of 2nd gear for reverse.

 

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5 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

Culture. 

Quote

‘You gotta be relentless. You can’t stop. I don’t’: Colts assistant GM Ed Dodds won’t settle for mediocrity

He was pissed off, tired of all the attention they were getting, tired of hearing how good they were and how great they were gonna be. The room needed some truth, some leveling, so eight days after it ended, emotions still raw, weeks and months of grueling work ahead, the **** Patriots punching another trip to the Super Bowl on the TV screen a few feet away, Ed Dodds gathered his scouts inside a bar in Mobile, Ala., and gave it to them.

“We ain’t done **** yet,” the Colts assistant general manager told them. “We won a f*cking wild-card game.”

You don’t get trophies for AFC wild-card games, and Dodds didn’t come to Indianapolis to win wild-card games. But two years in, anyone could see: the rebuild was working. The Colts had flipped 4-12 into 10-6, won a playoff game and had a roster stocked with young talent. The pundits couldn’t help but praise. The Colts were coming. Soon.

But Dodds didn’t wanna hear it, and didn’t want his scouts thinking it. If there’s anything that scares the **** out of him, it’s complacency. He fears it. Fights it. To him it just felt like it needed to be said, then and there, the night before they went to work at the Senior Bowl in late January, the unofficial kickoff to an exhaustive three-month stretch that would ready the entire personnel department for that spring’s draft. So he lit into them.

“I just felt like everyone was jacked, we’re on this win streak, and I’m kinda like, what the **** does it matter?” Dodds said a few months later. “If we don’t go to a Super Bowl, so what? A couple of injuries, bomb a couple of draft picks, no one in the pipeline to replace the players you lost? You gotta be relentless. You can’t stop. I don’t.”

Dodds has done this for a decade and a half, so he knows. He cut his teeth in Oakland, learning from Al Davis that B.S. won’t get you far in this league.

“With Mr. Davis, you learned quickly,” Dodds explains, “that if you don’t know the answer to a question, just say you don’t know and take your ***-beating right there. Don’t guess.”

 

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Most people on these boards knew we had issues with the OL & the DL at the end of last season.  It is very difficult, if not impossible to fix both of those issues in one off season.  Personally, I think TD made a run at fixing the issue. Signed some FA DL, and drafted to OL.  Unfortunately, relying on two rookies, and scrap players at the DL didn't cut it, but if they can get some solid DL in the upcoming draft, we may be better equipped to compete in the future.  Winning football game starts in the trenches, and our trenches were broken.  Had to fix them sometime.  This season is over, but I am optimistic about the future.

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Fallacy #7 TD will be fired. There is zero indication that AB is unhappy with the Job that TD has done. Only Falcon Fans want TD gone. I’m not arguing for keeping TD I’m just taking in all the available information and coming to the same conclusion that nearly every expert, pundit, and talking head has came too for the moment TD’s job is safe. Get over it. 
 

Fallacy #8 The franchise needs a complete reboot. Putting aside the salary cap implications this has even less of a chance of happening than TD getting fired. Despite the desires of the message board know it alls this roster is thought of around the league as being talented. Talent that is being wasted by questionable coaching. Blowing it all up and rebuilding with draft picks would be a crap shoot and a multi year endeavor at best. Definitely not a risk a new coach not named chip kelly would be willing to take. Again get over it

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8 minutes ago, shockerfalcon said:

Fallacy #7 TD will be fired. There is zero indication that AB is unhappy with the Job that TD has done. Only Falcon Fans want TD gone. I’m not arguing for keeping TD I’m just taking in all the available information and coming to the same conclusion that nearly every expert, pundit, and talking head has came too for the moment TD’s job is safe. Get over it. 
 

Fallacy #8 The franchise needs a complete reboot. Putting aside the salary cap implications this has even less of a chance of happening than TD getting fired. Despite the desires of the message board know it alls this roster is thought of around the league as being talented. Talent that is being wasted by questionable coaching. Blowing it all up and rebuilding with draft picks would be a crap shoot and a multi year endeavor at best. Definitely not a risk a new coach not named chip kelly would be willing to take. Again get over it

Besides the loyalty Blank shows to his execs, I wonder if he wonders if he (Blank) will live long enough to see the fruit of a TD firing and team reboot.  Maybe this is a factor, but it has to be under consideration. 

How many 1-6 (or worse, this season isn't over yet) teams in league history were super talented and just needing a new coach?

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56 minutes ago, Tmodel66 said:

Besides the loyalty Blank shows to his execs, I wonder if he wonders if he (Blank) will live long enough to see the fruit of a TD firing and team reboot.  Maybe this is a factor, but it has to be under consideration. 

How many 1-6 (or worse, this season isn't over yet) teams in league history were super talented and just needing a new coach?

It’s not just that we’re a 1-6 team it’s how bad we looked getting to 1-6. The team doesn’t just look bad it looks completely incompetent like it’s the first time they’ve stepped on the field. Most games we haven’t even been competitive. Is that really due to a lack of talent though when guys like Mack, dion Jones, Rico, Trufant, guys who have performed at pro bowl levels are suddenly making bone headed or rookie mistakes.

If we had Khalil Mack and Von Miller instead of Takk and Beasley would it matter if DQ is just gonna drop them into coverage constantly like he’s been doing this season? Why has DK stubbornly stuck to those 5-7 step drops when it’s obvious the o-line isn’t holding up cuz teams are pinning their ears back? Despite what the players are saying the coaches are clearly not putting them in a position to succeed.

Even if you want to blame the players for miscommunication and mental errors how can you justify the coaches not correcting the same miscues week in week out.
 

Even missing the core of the defense last year along with other injuries this team did not look anywhere near this inept. I just don’t see how anyone could look at the film and not pin this unmitigated disaster of a season squarely on DQ. He’s the one that fired all his coordinators, brought in DK, took over control of the defense. Refuses to bench underperforming players or do anything in general to create a spark

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43 minutes ago, shockerfalcon said:

It’s not just that we’re a 1-6 team it’s how bad we looked getting to 1-6. The team doesn’t just look bad it looks completely incompetent like it’s the first time they’ve stepped on the field. Most games we haven’t even been competitive. Is that really due to a lack of talent though when guys like Mack, dion Jones, Rico, Trufant, guys who have performed at pro bowl levels are suddenly making bone headed or rookie mistakes.

If we had Khalil Mack and Von Miller instead of Takk and Beasley would it matter if DQ is just gonna drop them into coverage constantly like he’s been doing this season? Why has DK stubbornly stuck to those 5-7 step drops when it’s obvious the o-line isn’t holding up cuz teams are pinning their ears back? Despite what the players are saying the coaches are clearly not putting them in a position to succeed.

Even if you want to blame the players for miscommunication and mental errors how can you justify the coaches not correcting the same miscues week in week out.
 

Even missing the core of the defense last year along with other injuries this team did not look anywhere near this inept. I just don’t see how anyone could look at the film and not pin this unmitigated disaster of a season squarely on DQ. He’s the one that fired all his coordinators, brought in DK, took over control of the defense. Refuses to bench underperforming players or do anything in general to create a spark

This. Squarely. 
No one assumes just new coaches will resolve it all. That’s foolish. It’s a multi layered problem with one layer being the biggest part. 

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3 hours ago, Tmodel66 said:

There are several fallacies we see posters on this board spout regularly.  The more this season plays out, it is becoming obvious that we have a lot of problems, and it is going to take some time to turn this around. 

Fallacy #1: We have one of the most talented rosters in the league.  We do have a talented roster, but every team in the NFL has talented players.  It doesn't feel like teams see us on the schedule and worry about how they are going to score on us or keep us from scoring.  In fact, I think most teams circle our names as a likely win.  At some point, talent rules.  Bottom line, if we were that much more talented than the rest of the league, we would have a better record.

Fallacy #2:  This team went to the Super Bowl, and we can do it again if only... THIS TEAM is 1-6.  Even if we could go back in time with 2016 personnel, Shanahan, etc., we aren't guaranteed anything in the (not for long) NFL.  If you aren't improving, you are going backwards in this league because our competition is getting better.  We are not as good as we were in 2016 any area of our team - offense, defense or special teams.  

Fallacy #3:  If we just fix ________________, we are going to the Super Bowl.  OK, most people know we aren't going to the Super Bowl this year, but at various points in the off-season, posters would tell us if we just improved our O-Line, improved our pass rush, got healthy, learned a new scheme, etc., we were good to go.  The truth is, we have some glaring weaknesses at every level in our team (with the possible exception of WRs and TEs).  We need better coaching and better personnel, and we need the leaders of our team to be better, too.

Fallacy #4:  Our GM isn't responsible for picking the players, so he gets a pass.  Defenders of Dimitroff will tell you he had his drafting privileges taken away, so he is no longer accountable for the draft.  If this is true, why are you defending him in the first place??  More importantly though, it is unreasonable to think TD and his scouting department don't have some of the responsibility for who we draft, who we extend, who we cut and the team building philosophy.  

Fallacy #5:  Salary cap doesn't matter.  Whether it is "the Brotherhood", too much faith in our own roster or Quinn trying to hold on to players he knows to make a run to save his job (see Vic Beasley), we have been unwilling to let players walk, and we pay for past performance.  You just can't "clear up $30-40 million with a few moves from your roster" because we have dead cap associated with several of our players.  TD fans, if this is his only area of responsibility, why are we in such a bad spot? 

Fallacy #6:  This is all on the coach...or the GM...or a couple of players...or the owner.  The truth is, the organization needs to improve top to bottom, and Blank bears some responsibility, too.  Publicly announcing that players are "Falcons for Life" has hurt us at the negotiating table.  We need to look at our team or coaches and our front office because we have weaknesses at many levels, and it is going to take new leadership, good decisions and time to get us back on the right track.

 

 

 

 Pretty much spot on sir, very good post.

Edited by Chaz
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Fallacy #1 - That the best team in the league always wins the SB. To be successful you need a lot of talent but you also need a lot of luck, as the margins between success and failure are often very small and some key factors are outside your control.

Fallacy #2 - That we somehow deserve to win a SB more than other teams, or or have a greater right to do so because we’ve not won one yet.

Fallacy #3. - That injuries don’t matter and are an excuse rather than a legitimate reason for sometimes not being successful.

Fallacy #4 - That if we didn’t win a game or title, it’s because we “didn’t want it enough”, or “didn’t work hard enough”, or we “don’t hold people accountable” enough for their mistakes  The reality is that there are 32 teams who all want to win, and most if not all of whom work as hard as they can to try to do so.

Fallacy #5 - That OTA’s, workouts, camp and pre-season don’t matter.  The reality is that these are the foundation of your season, and what we put out on the field is the direct product of every small action and decision made.

Fallacy #6 - That the salary cap doesn’t exit or doesn’t matter, because you can always work around it and there are no future consequences for doing so.

Fallacy #7- That the best way to build a team is to spend on big name/top tier FA’s

Fallacy #8 - That trading up in the draft for top tier prospects is the best way to build

Fallacy #9 - That teams in the NFL draft BPA irrespective of need.

Fallacy #10 - That we have a **** clue about how or why decisions are made, how our owner/GM/HC behave behind closed doors. People come out with statements and criticisms about the team and reasons for failure, like criticising AB for being “too involved in football decisions”, or criticise the FO or HC for being “arrogant” or ”too complacent” etc. But the truth is that 99% of us don’t have anough first hand knowledge or evidence to support such statements.

 

 

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3 hours ago, shockerfalcon said:

Fallacy #7 TD will be fired. There is zero indication that AB is unhappy with the Job that TD has done. Only Falcon Fans want TD gone. I’m not arguing for keeping TD I’m just taking in all the available information and coming to the same conclusion that nearly every expert, pundit, and talking head has came too for the moment TD’s job is safe. Get over it. 
 

Fallacy #8 The franchise needs a complete reboot. Putting aside the salary cap implications this has even less of a chance of happening than TD getting fired. Despite the desires of the message board know it alls this roster is thought of around the league as being talented. Talent that is being wasted by questionable coaching. Blowing it all up and rebuilding with draft picks would be a crap shoot and a multi year endeavor at best. Definitely not a risk a new coach not named chip kelly would be willing to take. Again get over it

I mean just looking from a salary cap perspective anyway, if we're in such danger, why would a new GM want that kind of mess to fix anyway?

It's kind of why I think AB may let Quinn keep his job if he can show some much needed improvement. Your next coach will have just as much of a blunder as Quinn has now to get this team winning.

At this point, AB might just be better off letting Quinn stay until after 2022 and then let some heads roll. If we suck that bad with Quinn, that means we'll have back to back top picks and some breathing room to start building again with the cap.

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1 hour ago, Geaux_Falcons said:

I mean just looking from a salary cap perspective anyway, if we're in such danger, why would a new GM want that kind of mess to fix anyway?

It's kind of why I think AB may let Quinn keep his job if he can show some much needed improvement. Your next coach will have just as much of a blunder as Quinn has now to get this team winning.

At this point, AB might just be better off letting Quinn stay until after 2022 and then let some heads roll. If we suck that bad with Quinn, that means we'll have back to back top picks and some breathing room to start building again with the cap.

Our cap situation only prevents us from doing a full reboot I.e. trading guys like Matt and Julio which a lot of misguided fans are calling for. It doesn’t limit us from shedding contracts like free and Trufant. Any coach would love to come in with an established franchise QB and the best receiver in the league already on the roster. Any coach knows they are still going to get high level performance out of those 2 for at least 3-4 years allowing a more reasonable pace and flexibility for them to remake the roster in their image. Not having to worry about the most important position on the field is a new coaches dream. A new coach will be able to come in a fully focus on fixing the o-line and defense with solid players anchoring both units in Matthews and Grady 

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12 hours ago, shockerfalcon said:

Our cap situation only prevents us from doing a full reboot I.e. trading guys like Matt and Julio which a lot of misguided fans are calling for. It doesn’t limit us from shedding contracts like free and Trufant. Any coach would love to come in with an established franchise QB and the best receiver in the league already on the roster. Any coach knows they are still going to get high level performance out of those 2 for at least 3-4 years allowing a more reasonable pace and flexibility for them to remake the roster in their image. Not having to worry about the most important position on the field is a new coaches dream. A new coach will be able to come in a fully focus on fixing the o-line and defense with solid players anchoring both units in Matthews and Grady 

https://overthecap.com/the-atlanta-falcons-bleak-outlook-in-2020/

This article sums up the cap problem very well.  We have a huge cap issue next year.

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