KCFalcon22

Mcgary

122 posts in this topic

16 hours ago, Ergo Proxy said:

@ChickenBiscuit Especially given our defense wasn’t 1 player away and seems to be more of a coaching letdown...

Also, had neither rookie got setbacks I think we would be getting the benefits already; even if rookie hiccups.

Think about it. Lindstrom was looking way more polished than McGary. OG been the worst!

We just need a few more impact players on defense. We don't need to be the most dominant defense of all-time, we just need a few additions that make us really good in certain areas and average in other ways. Like if we had the 13th ranked rush defense but maybe the #1 ranked pass defense with a good pass rush then that would be more than good enough to win the ship.

We're two or three players off from that. We need another playmaker at each level of our defense. Linebacker, DE, S are all needs and one of those positions needs to be addressed in free agency. We're also gonna have to draft a center in 2021 after we squeeze the last bit of play out of Alex Mack that we can.

We're not THAT far off from being competitive, but we need a high level player on defense besides Grady and Debo. Davidson is an awesome role player, but we need a Delpit/Young type player to come in our here and revitalize parts of our defense.

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We need to take the best player available when we pick, like a poster said earlier, drafting to fill a need is the worst approach, I project we will pick 6 to 8, Andrew Thomas may fall to us, if not Tristan Wirfs from Iowa would be best player on the board, followed by Jeff Okudah DB Ohio State and then AJ Epenesa Edge from Iowa and Delpit from LSU.  If Cleveland doesnt take Delpit he will be available mid to late teens and we could trade up for him. Some mock drafts have us taking Isaiah Simmons out of Clemson first that would be stupid when we could take a impact player like Thomas or Wirfs first and trade upi to get Delpit at 16-17 range. Two teams looking at Delpit would be Cleveland and Jacksonville.  Right now, the ranking on these players look like this  1. Andrew Thomas- UGA  2. Jeff Okudah- DB Ohio State  3. Isaiah Simmons- S Clemson 4. Delpit- S LSU 5. Aj Epenesa- EDGE Iowa 6. Tristan Wirfs- OL - Iowa.  But after combine it will look like this-   1. Andrew Thomas - UGA   2. Tristan Wirfs- Iowa  3. Jeff Okudah DB - Ohio State  4. Delpit- S- LSU 5. AJ Epenesa- Iowa Edge 6. Isaiah Simmons- S Clemson.  Andrew Thomas if he is there is the pick. Wouldnt be upset with Wirfs or Okudah either. Delpit is solid. AJ Epenesa is a poor mans Joey Bosa 282 lb. Edge with a motor and Isaiah Simmons to me is a good pick but he takes plays off.  

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36 minutes ago, Refried Beans said:

We need to take the best player available when we pick, like a poster said earlier, drafting to fill a need is the worst approach

This statement bothers me a little. Picking for need is not always the worst approach. Sometimes you have to pick for need. The question is how you do it within the entirety of the rest of your draft. An ideal draft to me is a mix of 'pick for need' and 'best player available', and it's often dependent on the draft board ... i.e. we need a DT for example, and we've identified 6 of them throughout the draft that we think can make the team and contribute ... then you have the luxury to let them come to you a little. However, maybe there's only one or two you think can help you, and the FA pool is limited ( and you know 3 or 4 other teams or looking at the same guys you are ). Thats when things get dicey.

Drafting Ryan in 08 was a need, and it worked. A lot of us ( I was one of them ) wanted Dorsey ( who we thought was best player available, and then we could take Brohm with our 2nd ).

The trick is you <have> to hit on the need picks. BPA misses don't have as much bad impact on you, but when you need to fill a hole and you don't it's twice as bad ( i.e. the current issue we have with DEs ).

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Geneaut- Obviously you are saying Derek Brown out of Auburn or Marvin Wilson out of FSU, But here is how I would draft in that scenario. Derek Brown is the trendy pick, probably going to go top 10, right when we go to pick, but the fall off between Derek Brown at say 7 to 9 vs Marvin Wilson at 21 are minimum. They are basically the same player. However, if I a IMPACT player like Andrew Thomas falls to me I am taking that pick. However I see your point it is very light in this draft for DL. Lots of CBs so I dont know if Okudah would be a wise pick at 8 or 9 either. 

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We obviously dont need QB so throw that out, we dont need RB so throw that out, pick comes down to DB, DL, OL, or LB. Then you start looking at depth in draft. There are tons of DBs this draft not so many DL so I prioritize best DL available. So now in Falcons situation I am down to Derek Brown DL out of Auburn. But if I go to pick and a OL like Andrew Thomas is there who is a IMPACT player I take him and I start looking at trading back into the first round and getting Marvin Wilson out of FSU. Becasue while I like Derek Brown and he fills a need for me, is he a top tier IMPACT player? Is he a Aaron Donald A+ DL or a Solid B. Why would I pass up a A+ OL like Thomas for a B DL like Brown when I can get a B dlineman at 21 in Marvin Wilson? This is why Falcon fail in the draft because they draft to fill needs instead of focusing on the QUALITY of the player they are getting. Top 10 pick you better be getting a A+. We busted a nut over Beasley at number 8 drafting for need when Abraham left and what is Beasley? 

Edited by Refried Beans

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@Refried Beans

So what you're saying is always draft the BPA but don't always draft the BPA.  OK makes sense.

Here's also the huge flaw with the BPA approach. Who determines the BPA?

There's no universal list.  One guy/team says player A is the BPA.  Team 2 says player B is the BPA. Team 3 says player C. And odds are 80% of these people are wrong.

Just go back and take a look at the top 10 picks for the last 4 years and count how many teams got it wrong.  2015 is particularly brutal.

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Just now, Sun Tzu 7 said:

@Refried Beans

So what you're saying is always draft the BPA but don't always draft the BPA.  OK makes sense.

Here's also the huge flaw with the BPA approach. Who determines the BPA?

There's no universal list.  One guy/team says player A is the BPA.  Team 2 says player B is the BPA. Team 3 says player C. And odds are 80% of these people are wrong.

And also, do all positions offer the same value? Is the best Tight End = to the best Cornerback =the best DE? If not then how much better does the CB have to be to become more valuable than the potential DE pick? At the end of the day the team will always pick who they feel is the best fit for their team and addresses their needs... and then they will still screw up around 50% of the time with thier first-round pick, and aorund 66% of the time with their second round pick. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

And also, do all positions offer the same value? Is the best Tight End = to the best Cornerback =the best DE? If not then how much better does the CB have to be to become more valuable than the potential DE pick? At the end of the day the team will always pick who they feel is the best fit for their team and addresses their needs... and then they will still screw up around 50% of the time with thier first-round pick, and aorund 66% of the time with their second round pick. 

Yeah there's also scheme fit but I wanted to keep it simple.

BPA sounds simple in theory but it's much more complicated.

I think Al Davis was the best example of a team going BPA.... and they drafted a kicker in the 1st round.

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1 minute ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

Yeah there's also scheme fit but I wanted to keep it simple.

I remember back when everyone was ****ting on TD because he picked "need" (Matt Ryan) over "BPA"  (Glenn Dorsey) in the 2008 draft. Funny stuff. 

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Sun Tzu- In top 10 you get the best IMPACT player available. I just gave an example. Andrew Thomas OL taking him over Derek Brown- DL because Thomas is a A+ and Brown is a B and this is a top 10 pick. I threw out QBs, RBs, and WRs, because we have IMPACT players at those positions. I want stars 1st pick not fill for need B players. Not a player I can get 11 picks down the board. 

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2 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

Yeah there's also scheme fit but I wanted to keep it simple.

BPA sounds simple in theory but it's much more complicated.

Agreed. 
 

Fans also tend to focus on round 1 and MAYBE round 2 but good drafting organizations know when to pull the trigger through every round... 

If you feel like you can get a guy in round 3 that may need a little refinement but will offer a similar career to a top 10-15 guy, you wait and try to maximize the value of all your picks. 
 

I say the only exceptions are QB and obvious generational talents like Khalil Mack or Julio Jones or Saquon Barkley et al. 

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5 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

I remember back when everyone was ****ting on TD because he picked "need" (Matt Ryan) over "BPA"  (Glenn Dorsey) in the 2008 draft. Funny stuff. 

I was a Glenn Dorsey guy... thank God They didn’t ask me. 

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Dr. Long Shot- no all positions do not offer the same value. A WR, CB, RB are easy to fill positions and hold less value, whereas a good OL and DL is like gold. The o-line and the d-line are the most valuable positions in football. I think Andrew Thomas is best player in this years draft overall. I think Chase Young is 2nd. Whoever gets one of these two players will have filled a spot for years to come.  

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3 minutes ago, Refried Beans said:

Sun Tzu- In top 10 you get the best IMPACT player available. I just gave an example. Andrew Thomas OL taking him over Derek Brown- DL because Thomas is a A+ and Brown is a B and this is a top 10 pick. I threw out QBs, RBs, and WRs, because we have IMPACT players at those positions. I want stars 1st pick not fill for need B players. Not a player I can get 11 picks down the board. 

You do realize you're trending more towards need based than BPA, right?

Don't go QB, RB, and WR even if they're clearly the BPA because you are set there and don't have a need for that type of player.

Again, who determines Thomas is an A+ and Brown is a B?  It's all projection and conjecture.

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25 minutes ago, Refried Beans said:

Dr. Long Shot- no all positions do not offer the same value. A WR, CB, RB are easy to fill positions and hold less value, whereas a good OL and DL is like gold. The o-line and the d-line are the most valuable positions in football. I think Andrew Thomas is best player in this years draft overall. I think Chase Young is 2nd. Whoever gets one of these two players will have filled a spot for years to come.  

It'd be great if things were that simple...

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Sun Tzu- Derek Brown at 7 and Marvin Wilson at 21 are the same player. I would draft Andrew Thomas or Chase Young over Burrows, Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy etc..... By the time the draft rolls around and combines are done Andrew Thomas and Tristan Wirfs will be projected top 7 picks. And hopefully  Miami and Cinn go QB, and Washington most likely will take Young, and unfortunately Jets will take Thomas. Giants will take Jeudy, and Browns will take Delpit and Tampa Bay will take Okudah. So we will be looking at Derek Brown or Tristan Wirfs. But if Jets DONT take Thomas he could fall to us and we need to take him and then trade back into first round with Philly and get Marvin Wilson out of FSU. 

Edited by Refried Beans

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1 hour ago, Refried Beans said:

Geneaut- Obviously you are saying Derek Brown out of Auburn or Marvin Wilson out of FSU, But here is how I would draft in that scenario. Derek Brown is the trendy pick, probably going to go top 10, right when we go to pick, but the fall off between Derek Brown at say 7 to 9 vs Marvin Wilson at 21 are minimum. They are basically the same player. However, if I a IMPACT player like Andrew Thomas falls to me I am taking that pick. However I see your point it is very light in this draft for DL. Lots of CBs so I dont know if Okudah would be a wise pick at 8 or 9 either. 

I wasn't saying anyone in particular. I drew DT out of the air. I'm just saying your draft board should dictate the 'draft for need' versus 'best player available' to a certain extent. If there are 10 guys on your board at a position of need, and you've got them pretty well slotted for what rounds they should go then you have more freedom. If you have a position of need and there are only 1 or 2 guys then you might be handcuffed to a certain extent.

There's no set right way. Lots of variables in this equation, and they'll change from draft to draft or even round to round within the same draft.

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Geneaut- I would imagine a organized scouting department would have a list of each position ranked 1 to whatever, if your job was to eval players all year long you would think that list would be pretty accurate.  

Edited by Refried Beans

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