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2019 Offensive Drive Stats


Dr Long Shot
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I see a lot of posters still saying our offense has been an issue this season, or that Koetter/Ryan has struggled, and sure, if you look at the raw numbers like total ypg and total points scored one could conclude we have been either average or above average  (7th in ypg and 16 in ppg). However if we look deeper into the numbers and use some stats that account for the lack of possessions that the Falcons have had thanks to their historically bad defensive performance so far, where we rank dead last in franchise history in points allowed and third-worst in Defensive SRS according to PFF, then we start seeing that our offense has been on the whole very effective.

Currently Falcons rank 4th in the league in yards per drive, 7th in points per drive, 7th in time of possession per drive, and most impressive of all we rank 2nd in drive success rate (DSR). What DSR measures are the percentage of sets of downs that either end in a first down or a TD. This stat indicates the effectiveness with which a team is able to move the sticks, and is explained by our very high 3rd down cvr% (48% ranking 7th) and our equally good Red Zone TD% (65% which ranks 6th) Also of note is that we're currently ranked 29th in average starting field position, which in my estimation can help to explain how our points per drive lag behind our DSR this year.

Overall, especially considering the almost complete lack of running game, this is a job well done so far by Koetter and Ryan. Obviously the big blemish here is our high turnover rate which is inflated considerably thanks to the first two games of the season where we had a whopping 6 turnovers. After that flukey start Falcons have actually done a superb job of not turning the ball over with just three in their last four games, which is a TO rate of .75per game that would rank in the top five in the NFL. Conversely, our defense has not caused a single turnover during that same time frame, with the only takeaway coming in Houston on a muffed punt. No team in the NFL has less defensive takeaways than the Falcons who are tied with Dolphins and Jags for least in the NFL this year

Interestingly, if we go back to 2018 we actually see a very similar picture, where we ranked 4th in the league in YPD, 6th in PPD, and 6th in DSR. 10th in Red zone TD% and 4th in 3rdD%. Needless to say, the offense has not been a problem for the Falcons during the last two seasons. This post is long enough that I don't want to dissect the defensive stats so far this year, but trust me, if you look deeper into them it's incredible how abysmal we have been on that side of the ball, in absolutely every single facet. It is no exaggeration to say we are one of the worst defenses not just of this year but of any year, ever. 

EDIT: Here are the links

:https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff/2019

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff/2018

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct

 

Edited by Dr Long Shot
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Honestly, we fixed INTs from week 1&2 and that was part of the problem.

The others:

Just needed better first half performances out of the offense and it was great to open the game with a TD last week. That’s the first time all year.

Oh, FIX THE DEFENSE!

We aren’t getting the ball back...

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