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2019-2020 Atlanta Braves Offseason Thread


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Braves president Mike Plant was on a Liberty Media stream to investors. He told them the Braves are set up to win now and that "they're going for it." He added the plan is to compliment the core youth

Happy Thanksgiving to all my Atlanta Sports Fan.

And I want Jeff Bezos to give me half his checking account. 

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12 minutes ago, Malachore said:

Bro if this team got slightly worse 1st half Riley this offense would be other worldly.

This is the most likely. There was no possible way Riley was going to continue that ridiculously hot start, but he also won't be that second-half guy either. I think he could put up a .250/.350/.450 season without much difficulty, with average OF defense/above average 3B defense.  

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1 hour ago, K26dp said:

This is the most likely. There was no possible way Riley was going to continue that ridiculously hot start, but he also won't be that second-half guy either. I think he could put up a .250/.350/.450 season without much difficulty, with average OF defense/above average 3B defense.  

Absolutely he's capable of doing that and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. I've done said my bold prediction is for Riley to smash 30 long balls this year.

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3 hours ago, K26dp said:

This is the most likely. There was no possible way Riley was going to continue that ridiculously hot start, but he also won't be that second-half guy either. I think he could put up a .250/.350/.450 season without much difficulty, with average OF defense/above average 3B defense.  

 

1 hour ago, AUTiger7222 said:

Absolutely he's capable of doing that and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. I've done said my bold prediction is for Riley to smash 30 long balls this year.

I agree and the .250/.350 range is what I hope from him. He's going to strikeout a lot, just hopefully he walks a bit but the power is there and it's effortless for him. 

I won't say his 1st half would be impossible but I just can't imagine his 2nd half is repeated either based on his minor league trends. If he put up the numbers both you suggest then this is one of the most dangerous lineups in MLB and if Dansby can finally hit and keep healthy then it'll be really special. 

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14 minutes ago, K26dp said:

I don't normally do comps, but here's my baseline comps for Pache, Waters, and Anderson. 

Pache - Mike Cameron
Waters - Grady Sizemore
Anderson - Sonny Gray

I'll let you decide if they had similar careers if that would be disappointing. 

If we can get an elite-level defender with an OPS+ plus over 100, annually, we've all got to be thrilled. 

As for the other two, those would be slam-dunk hits if they pan out.

 

I will say that I'm not sure Waters ever gets on base at a high enough clip to mirror Grady, though. The rest of the profile I can see.

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3 minutes ago, Malachore said:

Considering where there rank and all the hype all of those would be a disappointment except for Waters unless you're talking an entire career playing at the top level of the guys they're compared to.

Yeah, I thought you'd say something like this. Top prospects typically aren't projected to be Hall of Famers, they are projected to be quality major league regulars. Each of those players I comp'd were highly valued during their prime. If the Braves got similar careers from all three of those prospects, they'd likely be contenders for a decade. 

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19 minutes ago, K26dp said:

Yeah, I thought you'd say something like this. Top prospects typically aren't projected to be Hall of Famers, they are projected to be quality major league regulars. Each of those players I comp'd were highly valued during their prime. If the Braves got similar careers from all three of those prospects, they'd likely be contenders for a decade. 

I rephrased my comment if you didn't see it.

 I guess I look at it like would you trade any of those prospects for one of those players right now? If at answer is no then I'm not sure how you could be satisfied if that's how they turn out.

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H*** I wouldn't feel that way if most to you guys weren't so freakin stingy with prospects. Most of y'all don't want to give them up for top tier talent but then you'd be satisfied if they turned out like Sonny Gray.

I think some of yall overvalue prospects just as much as I may undervalue them

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13 minutes ago, Malachore said:

H*** I wouldn't feel that way if most to you guys weren't so freakin stingy with prospects. Most of y'all don't want to give them up for top tier talent but then you'd be satisfied if they turned out like Sonny Gray.

I think some of yall overvalue prospects just as much as I may undervalue them

There's quite a bit of recency bias going on in this post. Gray has two seasons of 5+ bWAR (with 2, Top-10 CY finishes), two with 3+, with an injury-plagued year and a trade to one of the worst pitching environments in baseball sprinkled in. I mean, yeah, we'd have to be pretty thrilled if Anderson turns out like Gray. 

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11 minutes ago, Malachore said:

H*** I wouldn't feel that way if most to you guys weren't so freakin stingy with prospects. Most of y'all don't want to give them up for top tier talent but then you'd be satisfied if they turned out like Sonny Gray.

I think some of yall overvalue prospects just as much as I may undervalue them

Maybe because Sonny Gray is a pretty dang good pitcher.

  • 2013 - 1.5 WAR
  • 2014 - 3.3 WAR
  • 2015 - 5.3 WAR
  • 2016 - -0.3 WAR
  • 2017 - 2.6 WAR
  • 2018 - 0.6 WAR
  • 2019 - 5.6 WAR

He's only had 2 bad years, one was an injury plagued year with the A's in 2016 and the other was his 2018 clunker with the Yankees.

Mike Soroka's WAR in 2019 was also 5.6. So yeah, we'd be thrilled in Anderson turns into Sonny Gray and we'd be thrilled if the other two things happened as well, especially if Waters turns into Grady Sizemore.

BTW @ATLBrave, why do you question if Waters will ever be able to get on base enough to potentially be like Sizemore?

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1 hour ago, K26dp said:

I don't normally do comps, but here's my baseline comps for Pache, Waters, and Anderson. 

Pache - Mike Cameron
Waters - Grady Sizemore
Anderson - Sonny Gray

I'll let you decide if they had similar careers if that would be disappointing. 

I would love it if Waters could be Grady Sizemore. He was such a thrill to watch play and **** shame his career was derailed by injuries. Both him and Rocco Baldelli are two guys that had the potential to be HOF players and we'll never find out how it would have ended up because of injuries cutting both short.

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17 minutes ago, Malachore said:

H*** I wouldn't feel that way if most to you guys weren't so freakin stingy with prospects. Most of y'all don't want to give them up for top tier talent but then you'd be satisfied if they turned out like Sonny Gray.

I think some of yall overvalue prospects just as much as I may undervalue them

Of course I wouldn't want to trade Ian Anderson for Sonny Gray right now. Gray's prime has passed and he's making a ton more money. That's a terrible way of looking at it.

If I was the GM of the Braves and I think my *mid-level* comp for Anderson is Gray, then I have to look at it as trading the first 6-7 years of Gray's career (at near-minimum for 3 years and arb for 3 to 4 more years), more or less, for what I'm getting back.  Most of the time I'm not going to get value unless I'm willing to radically favor immediate value.

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Just now, AUTiger7222 said:

Maybe because Sonny Gray is a pretty dang good pitcher.

  • 2013 - 1.5 WAR
  • 2014 - 3.3 WAR
  • 2015 - 5.3 WAR
  • 2016 - -0.3 WAR
  • 2017 - 2.6 WAR
  • 2018 - 0.6 WAR
  • 2019 - 5.6 WAR

He's only had 2 bad years, one was an injury plagued year with the A's in 2016 and the other was his 2018 clunker with the Yankees.

Mike Soroka's WAR in 2019 was also 5.6. So yeah, we'd be thrilled in Anderson turns into Sonny Gray and we'd be thrilled if the other two things happened as well, especially if Waters turns into Grady Sizemore.

BTW @ATLBrave, why do you question if Waters will ever be able to get on base enough to potentially be like Sizemore?

Grady had a walk rate that would have been in the Top 30 of all players this year, while the big knock on Waters is his propensity to be a free swinger. He makes a lot of hard contact, so his AVG may never suffer, but Sizemore was consistently putting up 100+ point spreads between his BA and OBP. 

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1 minute ago, ATLBrave said:

Grady had a walk rate that would have been in the Top 30 of all players this year, while the big knock on Waters is his propensity to be a free swinger. He makes a lot of hard contact, so his AVG may never suffer, but Sizemore was consistently putting up 100+ point spreads between his BA and OBP. 

Right, I'm projecting that Waters becomes more selective in time, and he continues to have higher BABiP than league average (though his +.425 BABiP from last year is obviously not sustainable). Overall OBP could be comparable, even though Waters won't approach Sizemore's BB% in his prime.

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